Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
System east of the Lesser Antilles
The tropical disturbance we've been following east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is now near 13N 49W, moving northwest at about 15 mph. It's convection diminished considerably this afternoon, but has made a comeback this evening. Wind shear over the system is conducive for slow tropical storm development, 5 - 10 knots. No surface circulation is evident on satellite imagery or QuikSCAT wind measurements, and this area is not likely to develop into a depression Saturday.
Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
System northeast of Puerto Rico
A non-tropical 1012 mb low is northeast of Puerto Rico near 25n57w in the central Atlantic moving northwest at 10-15 mph. This low has been slowly gaining more and more deep convection today, and could become a tropical depression on Sunday. Wind shear over the system has dropped to about 5 knots today, which is favorable for tropical storm development. The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, however.
Figure 1. Model tracks for the non-tropical low northeast of Puerto Rico.
Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the computer models agree that a tropical storm will form in the Caribbean or the region between Bermuda and Puerto Rico sometime in the next four days. We can discount the 18Z (2 pm EDT) run of the GFS model, which shows a hurricane developing near Puerto Rico in the face of 30 knots of wind shear Saturday night, and moving north to threaten Bermuda early next week. I do expect that Tropical Storm Vince will pop up sometime early next week, though, in the area north of Puerto Rico.
The next update will be Saturday around 11 am.
Comments will take a few seconds to appear.