Two Atlantic areas to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 AM GMT on October 08, 2005

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System east of the Lesser Antilles
The tropical disturbance we've been following east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is now near 13N 49W, moving northwest at about 15 mph. It's convection diminished considerably this afternoon, but has made a comeback this evening. Wind shear over the system is conducive for slow tropical storm development, 5 - 10 knots. No surface circulation is evident on satellite imagery or QuikSCAT wind measurements, and this area is not likely to develop into a depression Saturday.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

System northeast of Puerto Rico
A non-tropical 1012 mb low is northeast of Puerto Rico near 25n57w in the central Atlantic moving northwest at 10-15 mph. This low has been slowly gaining more and more deep convection today, and could become a tropical depression on Sunday. Wind shear over the system has dropped to about 5 knots today, which is favorable for tropical storm development. The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, however.


Figure 1. Model tracks for the non-tropical low northeast of Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the computer models agree that a tropical storm will form in the Caribbean or the region between Bermuda and Puerto Rico sometime in the next four days. We can discount the 18Z (2 pm EDT) run of the GFS model, which shows a hurricane developing near Puerto Rico in the face of 30 knots of wind shear Saturday night, and moving north to threaten Bermuda early next week. I do expect that Tropical Storm Vince will pop up sometime early next week, though, in the area north of Puerto Rico.

The next update will be Saturday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters

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129. code1
3:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Dr. Jeff has posted new blog
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
128. JupiterFL
3:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Code1,
Sorry I had to go mow the lawn while the sun was out. Its about 85 right now. Beautiful acutally but we shall se how long it will last. Gators play at 12:30 so pretty pumped about that.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
127. seflagamma
3:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
thanks will! suppose to be a new update from Dr Masters around 11am
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40891
126. willdd1979
2:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
trop. Storm watches out for Bermuda
125. willdd1979
2:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
New T.D has just formed out in atlantic
124. seflagamma
2:28 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
anyone out there?????

What's that swirl between Miami and the Bahamas?????
Looking better than it did????
should I canc the Football, Pool, Cookout party tomorrow????
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40891
123. seflagamma
2:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
It's about time that swirl does something. It's taken enough time to make up it's mind. Would this be an E coastal event; appears to be too far north to effect FL.

Got to get my NLF foodball pool done. Who's going to win sunday and what will the total score be for Monday's game?

The Dolphins are doing great so far, after last year's heartbreak.
Keep posting and keep up informed about those swirls.
gamma

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40891
122. tornadoty
1:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hey guys, two things YOU NEED TO SEE:

Link

Link


Can you say "Hello Vince"?
121. Delsol28N36W
1:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
What about the system that is showing up on the central east cost of FL. this is the second time I have seen a system there but not mentioned by anyone. Is this YucaStan after crossing FL?
120. seflagamma
1:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Good Morning all,
Just scanned the blogs since I signed off yesterday afternoon. It looks like we have Day Bloggers, Weekend bloggers, and those of you that stay up all night postings!

Broward County Fl is looking pretty good. Our forcast says we should have a great next few days; back to beautiful sunny weather...maybe outdoor pool time again!
But then again, who knows!A lot of spinning going on out there.

I at work today so Iwill look in from time to time to see what you are all saying.
Keep on posting.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40891
119. code1
1:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Good Morning Jupiter,
What's the temp down there? It is a chilly 58 here in the panhandle with winds coming from the north and still gusting up to 16 mph brrrr. Thought the system was supposed to be out of here by yesterday evening. Guess not.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
118. JupiterFL
12:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Guygee,
pleast take the Katrina stuff to the Katrina blog. You could sit here all day posting stuff from different writing blaming FEMA.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
117. Ezzz
12:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well looks like the American Hurricane Season is winding up maybe 2 or 3 more Tropical Storms or stronger to form. America needs another 3 tropical storms/hurricanes to form in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico and they will have to name the third hurricane using the Greek Alphabet names for the Hurricane names (Alpha, Theta, Omega etc.). THE AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE (or Hurricane for you Americans) SEASON STARTS ON THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER!!! :D It's 10:04PM Saturday night here, and Sister Act was just on (I LOVE THAT MOVIE LOL)
116. windcast
11:20 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
enjoy your morning all...zzzzzzZzzzzz
115. code1
10:27 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Thanks Lefty. Got up to check. Got your storm chasing gear ready yet? lol Going back to bed for now.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
114. windcast
9:58 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
not sure but i read somewhere recently that average temps of either greenland or north are way below normal.......not sure what this means and i am unable to find it at this moment...they are at the current time 20 degrees below normal on our artic continents, dont know what this means...and i hope to find out more later ....nite all
113. windcast
9:48 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
i have a few...but it may take me a few minutes to gather the data i have recently viewed to support my prediction of an active winter, i hope to post about this soon......we still have a tropical season to talk about im sure, but i have some data in my head or elsewhere that dictates a very strong winter season ahead...ill go look
112. njsammy
9:44 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
On a number of occassions J. Bastardi has made a connection between a very active tropical season and a subsequently cold, snowy winter in the northeast. He has drawn some interesting parallels between this hurricane season and the fall of '95 (which was followed by the snowiest winter on record in philly ...about 65" as opposed to the normal of 20"). Alot of it is postulated on water temps off the north atlantic, which apparently point to a negative NOA, which as most of you probably know tends to result in a harsh winter in the NE. Not sure how this all connects with active tropical development, and of course there are other factors. Anyone else here have any thoughts about this?
111. windcast
9:40 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
from my own perspective, right now there is simply too many disturbances out in our area of concern for any such tropical developement, but here is one i want you all to watch for..................look for a very exciting winter..i think we are due for a very severe winter so bundle up and prepare, that is all we can do :) nature is a beast, but we will continue to outdo her, and we will continue to strive for excellence in shelter, protection, and serenity from the elements! have enjoyed reading all of your posts rather good or bad for the past 2 months, keep em comin' guys
110. windcast
9:36 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
i read ya lefty, keep goin with your prognosis, you are usually spot on and rival that of many of the expert forcasters, and i am not speaking of the people in this blog, but the actual meteorologists out their in our community, if it interests you this much, go to school, study it and come out doing what you love to do...very good stuff and educational, keep on truckin bro'!
109. leftyy420
7:39 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
ok all global models are out. here is my update

the gfs, cmc, and nogapps all form a cyclone from a weak wave near puerto rico in 48 hrs or so. they key thing is they show no development of any opf the suspect areas right now. must note the cmc forms a cyclone that is quickly absorbed by the developing system,. very complicated but since there is not much model support i will say i feel neither the 1012mb low or the wave near the antilles will form. i must say now with another run i feel confident we will see a cyclone form near pr in 48-72 hours.

now lets talk track. its as divergent as you can get. the gfs wants to quickly whip this system north just off the new england coast. now this appears to be possible but i have a problem with the ridge building in behind the front now blowing the the eastern us. i feel that front will slow lil more than the gfs shows it and feel that the ridge will build slower to the east thus sterring our cyclone on a mopre west track. i base this on the cmc forming a slower building ridge as well as the nogapps and uk met both forming very strong ridges thta build slowly east wards. this seems more like what we would see in oct but will wait on moremodel runs of allmodels to determoine the exact timming and track. must note the latest nogaps makes landfall of any system near nc/va border, the cmc has her forming well north than any other model thus pushing here way out to sea, and the gfs forms the system where the nogapps does but its quick moving rodge whips the cyclone north to become a massive system in the maritimes. so lots to tie down but like i said earlier. feel this cyclone is the most likley of all top form in the next 3 days and feel we will have vince by monday or tuesday next week
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
108. leftyy420
7:25 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
sj u out there anywhere.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
107. leftyy420
6:47 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
back dunno if u guys are still here
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
106. code1
5:15 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
surely, sorry for the typo.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
105. code1
5:14 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Surley you jest dcw. Waters too cool for that now, hope so anyway :)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
104. dcw
5:10 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
I suggest we all get some sleep so that when Vince forms we can all stay up all night talking about a cat 5 in Nova Scotia.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
103. HillsboroughBay
5:06 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
102. code1
5:05 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
guy, i read about the mounties a few weeks ago. amazing that another country could get to our own before we could!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
101. guygee
5:00 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
StSimos - I decided to check back in for a minute, I found
these links regarding St. Bernards Parish:

the "St. Bernard/Katrina Log of Events Since August 27, 2005"
After Katrina there were reports of around 150 people
trapped on their rooftops. There are also pictures and
other messages. Link


There is also this Yahoo group for locating missing people,
I quick sampling revealed far more missing than found, out
of several hundred messages:
"Katrina - St. Bernard & Plaquemines, LA Message Board"

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=l&board=&tid=hvkatrint2bf0&sid=37138446&mid=1

Another link:

"Recent news articles mentioning St. Bernard Parish"

Link


One of the more amazing stories on that last site:

San Francisco Chronicle

The parish that feds overlooked

Canadian Mounties reached St. Bernard before troops did

Cecilia M. Vega, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, September 15, 2005

Link

Well StSimons, have good night, I have to get up early
tomorrow.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
100. code1
4:59 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Thanks Lefty, I'll watch here for a while longer while watching tv. Nite StSimons.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
99. leftyy420
4:48 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
also gfs track further east. still think its movinh the high behind the front to fast off shore. will see hwat tghe rest of the runs say.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
98. leftyy420
4:43 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
well gfs forms the cyclone near pr again.another run of it. guess we should disregard this run to dr.masters lol. still waiting for the rest of the global models to come out. also gfs does not form any of the other suspectareas into cyclones. will be back later watching movie with the wife
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
97. code1
4:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Nite sebastian. Any new update Lefty?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
95. OSHNBLU
4:32 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
the issue online is last months!
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5212
94. OSHNBLU
4:28 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Evenin' all. intresting article in the current issue of Yachting Magizine about a Yacht buildery located on the Canal in NO. How they prepared, some stayed, how they are taking care of their staff, and all they lost(some of their empolyees lived in Pass Christian) and what the gained! No link cause i read the "hard copy". If i find it I will post in my blog. Great Article!
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5212
93. sebastianjer
4:24 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well it looks like Sebastian Fl. is clear for the weekend, so I'll have to mow my lawn lol. Best get some sleep in nite..
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
92. sebastianjer
4:21 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Good point St.S I imagine those that stayed and survived have probably had to relocate so it may be awhile before we get accounts, though I'm going to start looking to see what I can find out.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
90. sebastianjer
4:16 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
CCFL.. I think, I pray that most people in the small towns evacuated, I heard that the costal Parishes had a 80-90% evacuation. Plus they didn't have that sudden dike failure like NOLA so they were just dealing with normal hurricane stuff. I expect, just my wild a..guess that LA death toll will be around 1500, terrible, but far less than the 10000 they were talking about right after.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
89. CoconutCreekFLA
4:13 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well, it's time to get my beauty sleep.

As a parting gift, here is my last sun-sentinel link for the evening (I swear I have no affiliation with them :))

If you have ever wondered if perhaps you had too much time on your hands since you were on this blog... consider this guy:

Link
88. CoconutCreekFLA
4:10 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
... here means hear
87. CoconutCreekFLA
4:10 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Sebastian: yeah, and we mostly here about NO. What about all these little towns. What's the situation there? Have people been relocated? Where are they living? Did they need to do search and rescues?
86. sebastianjer
4:08 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Actually I think they did a more extensive search of the 9th Ward because they expected the worst there, but that will probably be where the most are found. I also wonder about St. Bernard Parish since it was so heavily hit too.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
85. CoconutCreekFLA
4:08 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
I wonder if they will do something similar to the 911 don't sue the airlines payouts with Katrina.
84. CoconutCreekFLA
4:06 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Good point. If they aren't allowed home then they can't be finding bodies, can they..

It's late and the obvious has passed me by. ;)
82. CoconutCreekFLA
4:04 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
The biggest problem I see guygee is that we (humans) have come en masse to the coasts. Regardless if storms are getting bigger, stronger, or more frequent, simply the fact of having such huge numbers of people in coastal areas has the makings of a huge catastrope.
81. sebastianjer
4:03 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
CCFL, Having lived in LA a while back, it's a different culture, not bad just different. Pretty corrupt at all levels, but it's accepted and understood. People will be sueing everybody for everything around this entire mess.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
80. CoconutCreekFLA
4:02 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
How funny. I googled hebert's box and you were in the second result. First mentioned by Dr. Master's and now a google superstar. I just hope you will still find the time to hang with us :)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.