Unprecedented flooding hits Australia's Queensland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:57 PM GMT on December 29, 2010

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Unprecedented flooding has hit the northeast Australian state of Queensland, thanks to a week and a half of torrential rains and the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Tasha on Christmas Day. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard stated yesterday, "Some communities are seeing flood waters higher than they've seen in decades, and for some communities flood waters have never reached these levels before [in] the time that we have been recording floods." The worst flooding occurred where Tropical Cyclone Tasha made landfall on Christmas Day. Though Tasha was a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds and lasted less than a day, the cyclone dumped very heavy rains of 8 - 16 inches (about 200 - 400 mm) on a region that was already waterlogged from months of heavy rains. According to the National Climatic Data Center, springtime in Australia (September - November) had precipitation 125% of normal--the wettest spring in the country since records began 111 years ago. Some sections of coastal Queensland received over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain from September through November. Rainfall in Australia in December may also set a record for rainiest December. The heavy rains are due, in part, to the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. While the rains have eased over Queensland over the past few days, some rivers will not reach peak flood stage until Friday. Approximately 1000 people have been evacuated from the affected area so far.


Figure 1. Rainfall in Queensland, Australia for the 7-day period ending December 29, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Tasha as it moved inland over Queensland, Australia on Christmas Day (local time.) Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 3. River conditions in Queensland as of 8:30am local time on December 30, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Flood warnings are in effect for over twelve rivers, and the flooding has closed approximately 300 roads across Queensland, including two major highways into the capital of Brisbane. Evacuations are underway in Rockhampton, a city of 50,000 people on the coast. Damage to infrastructure in Australia has been estimated at over $1 billion by the government, and economists have estimated the Australian economy will suffer an additional $6 billion in damage over the coming months due to reduced exports, according to insurance company AIR Worldwide. Queensland is Australia's top coal-producing state, and coal mining and delivery operations are being severely hampered by the flooding. Damage to agriculture is curently estimated at $400 million, and is expected to rise.

Flooding woes hit New Zealand
Wild weather has also hit New Zealand this week. Golden Bay on the northern end of the South Island of New Zealand had its worst floods in 150 years this week, thanks to torrential rains that dropped up to 13.2 inches (337.5 mm) in just 24 hours on Monday at one mountain location.


Figure 4. Two webcam views of the Motueka River in New Zealand taken five hours apart on December 28, 2010, showing the dramatic rise in the river due to flooding rains. Image credit: Tasman District Council. Screen shots kindly sent to me by Matt Johnson.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Um hello key words YOU DECIDE.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14 Its not a choice I can make. It is just the way it is.

http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/prevention.html

http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Global-Superstorm-Art-Bell/dp/0743470656%3FSubscriptionId%3D06KMPSHEDS XXQMQVT482%26tag%3Daskcom-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D074 3470656 Read this book about how Global warming can trigger a global superstorm and a new ice age.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi canes...


Hello Geoff. I haven't been on all day, i've been helping someone out. It's just an awkward day for me lol
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553


That's a big upgrade. The Munster's, was infinitely better.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:

For heavens sake GLOBAL WARMING CAN CAUSE COOLING. INCLUDING AN ICE AGE ALMOST EXACTLY AS SEEN ON "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"!
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
Um hello key words YOU DECIDE.
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No...I could of gone here

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Crap. Geoff, did ya really have to go there? lol
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414



Good evening people!

I see no major conflicts so far. Kudos.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Hi canes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey everybody, just dropping in to say hello.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I will be in my blog if needed.

How do you get in your blog? I had squirrels in my attic. Is it something like that?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6025
Quoting bappit:

Depends on whether the dust is reflecting light or trapping infrared. Early in the article the popular news article suggests that silt-sized particles have a larger effect in trapping infrared. That would be a positive feedback. Nothing beats the original source. I take these news articles with a grain of salt.
I do too. The last thing we need is another positive feedback.
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Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
That is interesting. I wonder if desertification could be a negative feedback.

Depends on whether the dust is reflecting light or trapping infrared. Early in the article the popular news article suggests that silt-sized particles have a larger effect in trapping infrared. That would be a positive feedback. Nothing beats the original source. I take these news articles with a grain of salt.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6025
You have only until January 31, 2011 to watch all of the SG1 videos on Hulu. They are free.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6025
Quoting JFLORIDA:
more like dead ends.

Cost to cost is an old favorite though.


Coast To Coast is just entertainment. It puts me to sleep. I loved Phil Hendrie. All those people calling in thinking the guests were real.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont see any reputable research calling for an "ice age."

None whatsoever.

Would you post links.

http://www.terracycles.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1:superstorms&catid= 1:earth&Itemid=2
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whyshouldyoulisten.html
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNlzsVeSTQM
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/esp_ciencia_tsunami17.htm#Contents
http://books.google.com/books?id=q6pDFI7EiRsC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the coming global superstorm&h l=en&src=bmrr&ei=Awf3TPSbDo-q8Aa62NieBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAA#v=one page&q&f=false

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Seems like we are going around in circles tonight. Almost time for George Noory and Coast To Coast. They took Phil Hendrie off my local station.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Actually, a solar flare could provide a similar impact if it got lucky with the proper aim. Just sayin, we rely heavily on that of which we do not control :(

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/







Happy New Year :P !
A new ice age would be caused by the global superstorm. Just like on "The Day After Tomorrow".
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
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Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
A global superstorm would kill BILLIONS. Not a desirable outcome.


Actually, a solar flare could provide a similar impact if it got lucky with the proper aim. Just sayin, we rely heavily on that of which we do not control :(

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/





Quoting JFLORIDA:


I would make sure it was occurring before I predicted its effects.

Its weird after how skeptical you all are of thousands of sources and proxies for warming you jump on some extremely probable defective satellite reading like its gospel.


Happy New Year :P !
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
278. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 06U
9:00 AM WST December 31 2010
==========================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 16.0S 125.3E (overland), or 390 kilometres east northeast of Broome and 230 kilometres northeast of Derby has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes by.

While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.

Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Exmouth

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.9S 122.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.9S 119.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 20.2S 113.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 21.0S 109.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================
The system was located over land using surface observations, satellite images and Wyndham radar under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.

Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into favorable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favorable shear conditions. The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period.

The system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and should reach category 3 in 48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
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Quoting bappit:
Interesting article on dust. Sample:

Kok’s theory suggests that dust storms produce two to eight times more silt-sized particles than climatologists previously thought. Neglecting the boost in particles suggests that climate models, and even short-term weather models for dusty regions, are somewhat off. Until climate scientists better understand how dust changes over time, however, Kok said it’s tough to gauge the effects.
That is interesting. I wonder if desertification could be a negative feedback.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
theories of an abrupt thermohaline circulation shutdown are unfounded and outside of predicted results of warming.
Explain why its happened before. See my blog for further information on global superstorms. I am building a mini database on them.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting article on dust. Sample:

Kok’s theory suggests that dust storms produce two to eight times more silt-sized particles than climatologists previously thought. Neglecting the boost in particles suggests that climate models, and even short-term weather models for dusty regions, are somewhat off. Until climate scientists better understand how dust changes over time, however, Kok said it’s tough to gauge the effects.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6025
Quoting Levi32:
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.



I was just checkin some of the sites. This was interesting. I wonder how this stuff will eventually impact the tropics next year. I guess we will see :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/2010WxSummary.pdf
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting jwh250:


Say what? If that's the case and you are a Warm-Onger then you should welcome all the greenhouse gases to help cool the Earth off in the long run like setting a fire line to contain a wildfire.
A global superstorm would kill BILLIONS. Not a desirable outcome.
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compare maps 2009 2010 dec 30


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting washingtonian115:
So which one is it gonna be?.global cooling,or global warming.You decide.

For heavens sake GLOBAL WARMING CAN CAUSE COOLING. INCLUDING AN ICE AGE ALMOST EXACTLY AS SEEN ON "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"!
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
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Quoting jwh250:
Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

By P Gosselin on 28. Dezember 2010

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding...
So which one is it gonna be?.global cooling,or global warming.You decide.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And you get two for one! Just pay extra shipping and handling.


The more you buy...the more you save!!!
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Quoting presslord:
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...
You weren't the one who saw that ad.I saw it a few days ago while watching syfy.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


For some reason it looks like a plump pony from far away - didn't realize it was a girl in a dress. Its fine, sparkles would be nice but the pink doesn't bother me.
Some people were complaining that the pink bothers their eyes.But I like my new avatar.It sticks out more than the old one.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282
Quoting PcolaDan:


but...but...they are soooo purty!


And you get two for one! Just pay extra shipping and handling.
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Global warming could cause an even bigger drop in temperature if the Global conveyor belt shuts down.
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
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Quoting presslord:
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...


but...but...they are soooo purty!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.


2011 wont be as warm as this year(warmest on record). 2012 should be warm.
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Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
319 PM CST Thursday Dec 30 2010



Short term...
moderate onshore flow has pushed dewpoints into the 60s. A middle
level cap has hindered the development of showers this afternoon.
Expect mostly cloudy and mild weather tonight with lows dipping
into the 60s.


Long term...
the upper level low approaching The Four Corners area will move
towards the western Great Lakes by Saturday evening. This will
bring southeast la and southern MS into the distant right rear
quadrant of a 120 knot polar jet which will extend from the
Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Satellite infrared and water
vapor loops show another jet maximum just east of the Baja California
peninsula. This jet streak should move into the northern Gulf
Friday and Friday night. If this occurs there could be some
coupling between the two jets which would enhance upper level
divergence and lift over the bistate area. In addition...the
region will be in the right rear quadrant of a 40 plus knot 850 mb
jet. This should greatly enhance low level convergence and the
advection of rich tropical connection moisture into the region.


A slow moving cold front will become embedded in the broad upper
level trough associated with the upper level low. The front will
act as a low level focus for lines of numerous showers and
thunderstorms which develop Friday and Friday night. So will not
back down from mentioning heavy rain in the forecast. 2 to 4
inches of rainfall is possible during this time period.


In addition...model soundings show 50 to 60 knots deep layer shear
with strong veering in the lower layers of the atmosphere on
Friday. Surface based convective available potential energy should
be between 400 and 1000 units. This should be sufficient to
support thunderstorms. The thunderstorms could form into Bow
echoes which could produce an isolated tornado Friday afternoon
for areas mainly west of Interstate 55.


The cold front will move through most of the area by Saturday morning and should extend from Pascagoula to bootheville for most of Saturday. So have increased chance of rain for these areas.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models support this scenario.

In addition...
both models take the cold front off the coast Saturday late
Saturday evening.


Sunday and Monday should be dry as high pressure builds over the
region. A return flow...isentropic lift rain event starts to
develop on Tuesday. This unsettled pattern will persist through
Thursday.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128282

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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