November 2010 1st or 2nd warmest on record; ZombieSat saga ends

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on December 24, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

November 2010 was the globe's second warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2010 the warmest November on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - November, as the warmest such period on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere for November were the 5th or 3rd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rates the year-to-date period, January-November, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998. The record or near-record November global warmth is remarkable, given that we are in the midst of a moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures, making a monthly temperature record difficult to set. November 2010 is the only "warmest month on record" as rated by NASA to occur during La Niña conditions. The November temperature record is all the more remarkable since we are near the minimum of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Global temperatures are cooler by about 0.1°C for the two years following a solar minimum, compared to global temperatures two years after solar maximum. Our current minimum in solar energy makes it much more difficult to set monthly global temperature records.

An average November for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., November was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 46th warmest November in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to November, was the 19th warmest such period on record. No states had a top-ten warmest or coldest November on record. November 2010 precipitation was also near average. Only Montana had a top-ten wettest November on record, and no states had top-ten driest November.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.4°C below average as of December 20, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.29°C below average (as of December 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

November 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in November 2010 was the 2nd lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As of December 24, ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year. Ice volume in November was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.


Figure 1. Sea ice extent in the Arctic as measured by satellites. Beginning in mid-December, ice extent was at record low levels for this time of year. Image credit: University of Bremen.

Major atmospheric pattern shift coming
The unseasonably cold weather over Europe and the Eastern U.S. is due to break between Christmas and New Year's, as the atmosphere undergoes a major shift in its circulation. The very unusual high pressure region over the Arctic is forecast to break down and be replaced by the typical low pressure region we expect to see in winter. After recording some of its coldest temperatures in 17 years this week, the UK may well see record highs on New Year's Eve as a result of the pattern shift. The pattern shift should bring the Eastern U.S. above-normal temperatures during the last few days of 2010, and a major New Year's Eve snowstorm to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

The ZombieSat saga ends?
Last week, I blogged about ZombieSat, the rogue Galaxy-15 communications satellite that failed during a solar storm. ZombieSat has been spewing noise in the C-band microwave region that has been interfering with broadcasts from satellites in its path, including the key SES-1 satellite that relays most of the weather data wunderground and the National Weather Service uses. Within the next week, ZombieSat will close in on its sister satellite, Galaxy-16, which hosts the Public Radio Satellite Service (PRSS) feeds, among others. A few weeks ago, PRSS warned its customers (who include commercial stations as well as the nation's public broadcasters) that there would be a possibility of disruption to its services on or about December 26. But on Friday December 17, Intelsat announced that ZombieSat had lost its "lock" on Earth, resulting in a loss of power that caused the satellite's main interfering transponders to shut down. So it appears the ZombieSat saga is over, and a whole bunch of engineers and operations directors can enjoy Christmas weekend without worrying about a zombie satellite hanging 23,000 miles over their heads.

Happy holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 614 - 564

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting Streetz313:
koritheman, i cantz beleeve u gon speek to me like dat..my momma smoked crack derring her pregnancy and has ben in jail since i wuz 6 yrs old fo killin my popz, but thankz to u washingtonian, u iz reallee stand up


I reiterate: obvious troll is obvious.

Also, needz moar subtlety.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calusakat:


What a bogus conclusion.

Having a PhD does not, in any way, impart in that individual, any superior ability to interpret anything. All it says it that they studied hard, stood before a group of fellows of like mind and was awarded a certificate of having studied the subject and meeting the criteria. After that, they are on their own. It does not carry with the Wand of Infallibility as you seem to desperately want to believe

Try reading the book, " I Fired My Doctor and Saved My Life " and see for yourself how having all the education in the world does not equate into being right about anything.

Saying that a PhD trumps something less is simply elitist in its most disgusting display.



Now that response is anti-intellectualism at its finest: doctoral degrees mean nothing; experts are morons; all scientific opinions have equal weight and merit, whether they came from a person who's studied at a high level in a single discipline for decades, or just some under-educated hack who throws up a website and starts spouting anti-scientific nonsense.

Good luck! Let me know how that works out for you... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
If you live in the northeast then you have a strong chance of seeing a blizzard with high winds and snow totals of 11 inches plus.


I thought you knew better ;-)

Duke Energy has knocked the outages in the Carolinas from 12,000 to 1700. Thanks to all those linesmen out there, risking their lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This storm is crankin..... check the pressure !



Nantucket, Massachusetts (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 0 sec ago

40 °F
Light Rain Mist
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: 29 mph from the NE

Wind Gust: 41 mph
Pressure: 28.99 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?


What a bogus conclusion.

Having a PhD does not, in any way, impart in that individual, any superior ability to interpret anything. All it says it that they studied hard, stood before a group of fellows of like mind and were awarded a certificate of having studied the subject and meeting the criteria. After that, they are on their own. It does not carry with it the Wand of Infallibility as you seem to desperately want to believe

Try reading the book, " I Fired My Doctor and Saved My Life " and see for yourself how having all the education in the world does not equate into being right about anything. Google it if you are interested.

Saying that a PhD trumps something less is simply elitist in its most disgusting display.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

"Character assassination"? I merely pointed out--as I will again here--that equating Dr. Masters and guys like Watts where it comes to climate science isn't wise, that's all. If you or anyone else wishes to give the sides equal credence, that's certainly your prerogative--but most reasonable folks know that the difference between a met with a PhD and an undegreed ex-TV weatherman is night and day.


So tell us, are you compensated or have you been solicited from this web site for your participation ?

It is obvious to many that you have much time on your hands :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


Important to note the character assassination does not refute the science provided by those slandered. Just sayin, the ideologue ignores the difficult and forwards his agenda accordingly without conscience. Just look back and see it play out over and over on this blog :)

Hired hand perhaps? You betcha, LOL


"Character assassination"? I merely pointed out--as I will again here--that equating Dr. Masters and guys like Watts where it comes to climate science isn't wise, that's all. If you or anyone else wishes to give the sides equal credence, that's certainly your prerogative--but most reasonable folks know that the difference between a met with a PhD and an undegreed ex-TV weatherman is night and day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Be part of the cure...not part of the problem.


+100, well said Orca.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
590, Yep a voice of reason, finally! but it goes beyond the obvious :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sorry Orca. I'm really not trying to argue with anyone. Just trying to understand what type of character is posting. Obviously not what is being presented, so I'm just interested.

Stay warm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


They do it for the attention, of which there is certainly no shortage lately. Expect it to continue!
Maybe people should take my advise.They should just read the post their interested in,and qout if they want or come back later to see if the admin have taken care of the problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RipplinH2O:
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.

I only brought up Watts in an attempt to head off at the pass anyone who accuses me of backing Dr. Masters merely because he supports the theory of AGW, while discounting guys like Watts because they don't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpiderTrolls:





Since you image sourced to a graphics site, the geeks have it. Maybe a few years beyond high school, at least temporally, if not emotionally.

Thanks for answering. Stay warm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


That column to which you linked--and I read the entire 3,000-word mess--is a prime example of denialism.

I looked around Google a bit, and wasn't able to find anything anywhere mentioning Paul Murphy's climate science credentials, but I'll take your word for it that he's a meteorologist. Of course, a meteorologist deals with short-term weather, so it's no surprise that Murphy would be unable to understand the wealth of data out there supporting rapid warming (and the fact that he's chosen to write in Anthony Watts' infamous contrarian site is pretty telling in and of itself).

Murphy's basic contention is that temperature readings are too inexact to give scientists anywhere near the precision needed to justify their claims of global warming. Okay, fine; let's go with that premise. Let's jettison every temperature reading warm or cold ever taken in the last 150 years. Let's start from a neutral place and say that we have absolutely no way of knowing from thermometer and satellite data whether the planet has warmed or cooled over the past 15 decades. All we know is what we see now. Let's do that.

Now, Mr. Murphy, I'd like you to please explain what's causing the many changes we see around the globe. You know, quickly melting sea ice. Rapidly vanishing glaciers. Rising oceans. Extended heat waves, more frequent catastrophic flooding, increasing extreme weather events. Dying coral reefs. Ocean acidifcation. Earlier onset of spring. Later onset of winter. And so on. Please tell us: if the planet isn't warming, what's causing all that?

When you can come up with a coherent answer, I'll be willing to listen. But I won't hold my breath...


I know... Mankind, that wascolee wabbit, is solely to blame.

No matter what the weather, hot or cold, wet or dry, according to you, The Sky is Falling, we are all going to die and man is at fault

You call that interpretation of yours, an intelligent, scientific and unbiased response to what was written??

How absurd. Your AGW colored glasses totally disqualify you from any serious consideration as to having any possibility of being taken seriously.

Just because AGW came to the table first, with its ridiculous claims, does not entitle it to any degree of favoritism when it come to the evaluation of competing interpretations of the same observations.

Your questions are so obviously disingenuous as to be sadly comical. The ridicule and elitist demeanor in your writing style destroys any sense of serious interest on your part.

You claim to be here on the blog to support the cause of AGW; yet your writing style, belies a disdain for anyone who does not agree with your views. It certainly doesn't contribute to the advancement of AGW in any measurable way. Why else would you stoop to name calling like Luddite and denialist?

Regardless, what encourages me is that the truly intelligent ones on this blog who see the fraud that is AGW are learning a great deal from you on how little respect the AGW people really hold for people who disagree with them. They are having their eyes opened wide. Soon AGW will be escorted to the trash bin where it belongs.

We can only hope it happens before the money grubbers steal billions of tax dollars from hard working middle class people who will, in the final analysis, have nothing to show for it except for less food on the table and no Christmas presents under the tree.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:


Dude or Dude-ette, why do this ?


They do it for the attention, of which there is certainly no shortage lately. Expect it to continue!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Down 2 more degrees here...46, but the wind has died down.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10976
spider have you had you're twizzle stick today you and streetz should get together and share one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting RipplinH2O:
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.


Important to note the character assassination does not refute the science provided by those slandered. Just sayin, the ideologue ignores the difficult and forwards his agenda accordingly without conscience. Just look back and see it play out over and over on this blog :)

Hired hand perhaps? You betcha, LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Streetz313:
yo i'z tired of axin what yall is theenkin bout


Honest question... are you and your friend a pair of bored boarding school kids home on holiday, trying to write street, with too many zits, too much jay, and too much time on your hands? Or are you a screenwriter trying to brush up his dialogue skills? I swear I've seen your style before...

I especially like the careful phonetic spellings and the fact that you are placing your terminal consonants where they would be if you were prep school educated.

It's just interesting to me, so I'm asking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I am thinking that it is more likely that we will see conditions like 2008 next year, as far as ENSO is concerned; for one, the SOI has been rebounding recently and is nearly up to its initial peak in September:



On the other hand, equatorial Pacific SSTs have been lagging for some reason, only reaching the "moderate" category despite extremely strong atmospheric circulation (see the SOI) anomalies as well as very cold subsurface anomalies. As discussed here for the MEI, SST anomalies in the eastern/central Pacific have been only around 1 STD below average, compared to 2 or more for other fields:


Consistent with full-blown strong La Niña conditions, all of the key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure), flag typical La Niña features, while no comparable El Niño-like features reach the opposite one sigma threshold. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) denote significant negative sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the Maritime Continent, strong easterly anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline (-2.4 standard deviations), significant northerly anomalies east of Fiji, while both sea surface (S) and air temperature (A) anomalies continue just above -1 sigma in the central and eastern tropical Pacific basin. Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote strong positive sea level pressure (P) anomalies (up to +2.1 standard deviations) over the eastern (sub-)tropical Pacific, strong southerly anomalies (V; up to 2 sigma) are found west of Hawaii, warm sea surface temperatures (S) reach almost two sigma northeast of Australia and west of Hawaii, and significantly increased cloudiness (C) covers most of Indonesia. Again, all of these cardinal anomalies flag La Niña conditions.


In fact, if SST anomalies had been more in line with the other fields, we would have had the strongest La Nina on record (as it was, it did set a record low for August-September and the second lowest overall, behind 1955). I don't know what this means, except maybe the high global temperatures this year have prevented SSTs from cooling as much as they otherwise would (don't forget that a negative PDO is also reinforcing La Nina, although perhaps this explains the strong atmospheric signal more than the SSTs). That said, it looks likely that we will see an extended La Nina episode:


Stay tuned for the next update (by January 7th) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are indeed guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it can rally once more to cross the -2 sigma barrier, and/or whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed four months ago on this page.


One more thing though is that the past decade has seen rapid cycling between El Nino and La Nina, with four El Ninos in an 8 year period (starting in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009), the most on record (suggesting that the next one would be in 2011 if this pattern continued - it probably won't though; 2012 if it is like the last one).
I had noticed this pattern to awhile back.i'm thinking 2011 will be almost like 2008,and that 2012 will be an El nino year.But It's not entierly written in stone yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?
I think I asked a simple question about your opinion on Dr. Masters statement as it relates to your comments on Dr. Grey, a "wonderful meteorologist, but not a climate scientist" and your comments on Watts are a severe digression...but I get the basics of your answer...thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5.1 Earthquake, was Pottery shaken... or just stirred?

14.6 miles from his house.... I bet he felt it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SpiderTrolls:


Report this:


and by the way:



Dude or Dude-ette, why do this ?

You expose your own insecurity and unhappiness to all. Trix are for Kids.

Just wrong, period.

Watch the volume :)





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like it's going to be a mild tempetures for most of the east coast New Years.However that won't last long when that shot of artic air comes in around the 5th of January.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you be a real spiderdonkey
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
two words for SpiderTrolls and is other frinds that he has up you go POOF
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Quoting RipplinH2O:
For Nea: Skye quoted Jeff Masters on the last page: "More words from Masters on the past year from that link..

In my thirty years as a meteorologist, I’ve never seen global weather patterns as strange as those we had in 2010."

Adding to the discussion on Dr. Grey from last week, does that change your opinion on meteorologists vs. climate scientist opinions? (Honest question, not poking the bear)


As the preponderance of the evidence points toward anthropogenic global warming, and as the vast majority of actual climate scientists are convinced of it to lesser and greater degrees, any meteorologist who has looked at the same evidence and interprets it the same way is probably on the right track.

Now, while there's no way to prove it so you'll have to take me at my word, if the situation were reversed--that is, if the evidence didn't point to AGW, and if only a tiny fraction of climate scientists subscribed to the theory--as much as I respect Dr. Masters, I would almost certainly look at him with as much skepticism as I do others currently on the wrong side of science.

Finally, I'd just add that there's a world of difference between a meteorologist with a PhD like Dr. Masters, and a non-degreed ex-TV weatherman such as, say, Anthony Watts. As such, giving their separate opinions on climate matters equal credence would be a bit unfair and unwise, don't you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Facepalm smh(shaking my head).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THATS IT
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114721
Raining here now and very windy! Crazy storm. I want to see Thundersnow!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 614 - 564

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.