November 2010 1st or 2nd warmest on record; ZombieSat saga ends

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on December 24, 2010

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November 2010 was the globe's second warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2010 the warmest November on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - November, as the warmest such period on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere for November were the 5th or 3rd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rates the year-to-date period, January-November, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998. The record or near-record November global warmth is remarkable, given that we are in the midst of a moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures, making a monthly temperature record difficult to set. November 2010 is the only "warmest month on record" as rated by NASA to occur during La Niña conditions. The November temperature record is all the more remarkable since we are near the minimum of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Global temperatures are cooler by about 0.1°C for the two years following a solar minimum, compared to global temperatures two years after solar maximum. Our current minimum in solar energy makes it much more difficult to set monthly global temperature records.

An average November for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., November was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 46th warmest November in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to November, was the 19th warmest such period on record. No states had a top-ten warmest or coldest November on record. November 2010 precipitation was also near average. Only Montana had a top-ten wettest November on record, and no states had top-ten driest November.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.4°C below average as of December 20, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.29°C below average (as of December 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

November 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in November 2010 was the 2nd lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As of December 24, ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year. Ice volume in November was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.


Figure 1. Sea ice extent in the Arctic as measured by satellites. Beginning in mid-December, ice extent was at record low levels for this time of year. Image credit: University of Bremen.

Major atmospheric pattern shift coming
The unseasonably cold weather over Europe and the Eastern U.S. is due to break between Christmas and New Year's, as the atmosphere undergoes a major shift in its circulation. The very unusual high pressure region over the Arctic is forecast to break down and be replaced by the typical low pressure region we expect to see in winter. After recording some of its coldest temperatures in 17 years this week, the UK may well see record highs on New Year's Eve as a result of the pattern shift. The pattern shift should bring the Eastern U.S. above-normal temperatures during the last few days of 2010, and a major New Year's Eve snowstorm to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

The ZombieSat saga ends?
Last week, I blogged about ZombieSat, the rogue Galaxy-15 communications satellite that failed during a solar storm. ZombieSat has been spewing noise in the C-band microwave region that has been interfering with broadcasts from satellites in its path, including the key SES-1 satellite that relays most of the weather data wunderground and the National Weather Service uses. Within the next week, ZombieSat will close in on its sister satellite, Galaxy-16, which hosts the Public Radio Satellite Service (PRSS) feeds, among others. A few weeks ago, PRSS warned its customers (who include commercial stations as well as the nation's public broadcasters) that there would be a possibility of disruption to its services on or about December 26. But on Friday December 17, Intelsat announced that ZombieSat had lost its "lock" on Earth, resulting in a loss of power that caused the satellite's main interfering transponders to shut down. So it appears the ZombieSat saga is over, and a whole bunch of engineers and operations directors can enjoy Christmas weekend without worrying about a zombie satellite hanging 23,000 miles over their heads.

Happy holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Interesting with these future cast graphics..
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Uh doing pretty good.. went out last night and had some fun.. ;) But to me, it doesnt really feel like christmas even though it is..


Sure doesn't. :/
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 561 Comments: 20070
Quoting KoritheMan:


Tired, because my sleeping habits are so ridiculously poor but yes, other than that, I'm doing well.

You?


Uh doing pretty good.. went out last night and had some fun.. ;) But to me, it doesnt really feel like christmas even though it is..
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Compare the 06Z/GFS @ 66Hrs to the 12Z @ 60 Hrs. BIG shift west. Not that means anything...
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Merry Christmas to all.. everyone doing good?


Tired, because my sleeping habits are so ridiculously poor but yes, other than that, I'm doing well.

You?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 561 Comments: 20070
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE TASHA (05U)
5:00 AM EST December 25 2010
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Tasha, Category 1 (993 hPa) located at 17.0S 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knot with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northern quadrant
40 NM from the center is southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.7S 142.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 18.4S 140.8E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
System is already interacting with the coastline, and is not expected to develop
further. Classification based on pressure and wind observations with Dvorak struggling to adequately describe the system.

The CYCLONE is expected to cross the coast between Cairns and Innisfail between
5am and 7am EST Saturday morning.

GALES have already been observed offshore and should develop about coastal parts over the next few hours.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 55 knots are expected to develop about the north tropical coast and continue throughout Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between Port Douglas and Cardwell and extend inland during Saturday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for areas south of Cardwell.
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Merry Christmas to all.. everyone doing good?
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xmas to all
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Quoting Levi32:


12z Euro is out to sea. The block over Canada is too far west to allow this to pull in towards the coast much. Hopefully some will get a bit of light snow but I suspect it won't be a huge deal.


Henry Margusity differs, says the ULL would normally cause the storm to dig in a bit more west then what the early model runs show.. The upper air pattern is favorable for an East Coast storm.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting reedzone:
What did I say last night? Models would veer westward with the EC Coast.. 12Z GFS is a Christmas Miracle for snowlovers!


12z Euro is out to sea. The block over Canada is too far west to allow this to pull in towards the coast much. Hopefully some will get a bit of light snow but I suspect it won't be a huge deal.
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What did I say last night? Models would veer westward with the EC Coast.. 12Z GFS is a Christmas Miracle for snowlovers!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Yes you can. I see 2 peaks and 2 valleys in November. They clearly do not average out to >4C above normal. Try eyeballing 4K above the green line (I'm sure you can do that) and then tell me it's averaging above that line. No way Jose.
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.
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i will

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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
Doug
he is just fishing don't bite
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Quoting gijim:


I would like to point out that when GISS data is set to 250km smoothing, and not 1200km smoothing, that the holes are more evident:

http://imgur.com/AiCZK.png


And the Danish Meteorological Service, who devotes more accurate model estimates based on real observations in the arctic north of 80N (GISS has none) showed arctic temperatures to be near normal to only slightly above normal on average for November (Days 305 to 334), certainly not >4C above normal as the GISS graph suggests.

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Have to remember that the oceans are a major CO2 sink: Acidifying Oceans Could Upset Life’s Nitrogen Cycles

“Global declines in oceanic nitrification rates as a consequence of ocean acidification.” By J. Michael Beman, Cheryl-Emiliane Chow, Andrew L. King, Yuanyuan Feng, Jed A. Fuhrman, Andreas Andersson, Nicholas R. Bates, Brian N. Popp, David A. Hutchins. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107 No. 51, Dec. 21, 2010.
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Quoting jasonfwi:
Dr. M is trying to make me cry and ruin my New Year's Eve. ;)
january thaw cometh and with it severe
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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
The Mid-Atlantic states now need to be on high-guard for a potentially cataclysmic weather event unfolding. 4-6 feet of snow and blizzard conditions likely in 48 hours. Winds sustained at 70 with gusts to over 90 in coastal areas of the Carolinas and southern Virginia


Very mature user name. Now just go away.
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Dr. M is trying to make me cry and ruin my New Year's Eve. ;)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
FYI Doc, I'm not too concerned about it being the 2nd warmest November on record, because it's been freezing on the gulf coast, and snowing in Europe. It's the planet's way of balancing itself out. If cold weather were to stop down here with the ice at the poles melting the way they are, it would be a whole different story. But that is not the case.


That doesn't mean that near freezing temperatures will continue to be the norm for each near record year. For the November global temperatures to be near record, your anecdote (representing a substantially smaller area) must be the exception rather than the norm.
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Quoting MichaelSTL:
It is interesting to see why NASA has November as warmer than NOAA (warmest vs. second warmest); NOAA has November 2004 as the warmest November:





NOAA doesn't include the polar regions which were up to 0.5°C warmer in the Antarctic and a whopping 4.75°C warmer in the Arctic. However, the equator was about 0.75°C cooler than in 2004, which had an El Nino (that doesn't seem like much, but equatorial regions have more weight in the global mean than polar regions for the same span of latitude). Here are November 2004 and 2010 using the regular baseline (1951-1980); for reference, NOAA had an anomaly of 0.72°C for November 2004, warmer than NASA:





I would like to point out that when GISS data is set to 250km smoothing, and not 1200km smoothing, that the holes are more evident:

http://imgur.com/AiCZK.png
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Quoting aquak9:
...obviously has never seen MY mom...
lol see not too smart is it
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Re-port and Ig-nore still seem to work. Haven't used lately. Oh well!
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Happy Holidays, Dr. Masters.
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Quoting nocaneindy:


Right under where the reader comments begin is a box with filter next to it. Change it to show all.

Happy Holidays WU bloggers!

Thanks!
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Quoting Vincent4989:
how can i turn off auto-hide comments? i see comments from a certain poster always hidden

and Happy Holidays, everyone!


Right under where the reader comments begin is a box with filter next to it. Change it to show all.

Happy Holidays WU bloggers!
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Stupid people out on a holiday from school...
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FYI Doc, I'm not too concerned about it being the 2nd warmest November on record, because it's been freezing on the gulf coast, and snowing in Europe. It's the planet's way of balancing itself out. If cold weather were to stop down here with the ice at the poles melting the way they are, it would be a whole different story. But that is not the case.
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how can i turn off auto-hide comments? i see comments from a certain poster always hidden

and Happy Holidays, everyone!
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Merry Christmas to everybody!









('cept the troll with the stupid name).
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Here it comes


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ha ha aquak9 my mum would prob. put a barret 50. cal round in the head for someone having a name well nice to meet you DudeIBangedYourMom by the way where did you get that handle
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hey guys what up and happy christmas
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...obviously has never seen MY mom...
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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
The Mid-Atlantic states now need to be on high-guard for a potentially cataclysmic weather event unfolding. 4-6 feet of snow and blizzard conditions likely in 48 hours. Winds sustained at 70 with gusts to over 90 in coastal areas of the Carolinas and southern Virginia




i think you are the one that been re ported lol
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Apollo 8 Christmas Message

.."a Merry Christmas, and God bless all of you, all of you on the Good Earth"..


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DudeIBangedYourMom i was wundering where you get that from
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<
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Thanks, Dr. Masters, both for today's post and all your other outstanding and very educational blog entries throughout the year. Your work keeps a lot of us occupied and very happy.

From today: "The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures, making a monthly temperature record difficult to set. November 2010 is the only 'warmest month on record' as rated by NASA to occur during La Niña conditions. The November temperature record is all the more remarkable since we are near the minimum of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Global temperatures are cooler by about 0.1°C for the two years following a solar minimum, compared to global temperatures two years after solar maximum. Our current minimum in solar energy makes it much more difficult to set monthly global temperature records."

Remarkable, indeed, and while there are several possible reasons why such a thing could happen, the majority of the fingers really only point to one conclusion, don't they? Incredible, and still another data point to toss upon the already mountainous pile of evidence.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
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LOL...


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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