November 2010 1st or 2nd warmest on record; ZombieSat saga ends

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:50 PM GMT on December 24, 2010

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November 2010 was the globe's second warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2010 the warmest November on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - November, as the warmest such period on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere for November were the 5th or 3rd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rates the year-to-date period, January-November, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998. The record or near-record November global warmth is remarkable, given that we are in the midst of a moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures, making a monthly temperature record difficult to set. November 2010 is the only "warmest month on record" as rated by NASA to occur during La Niña conditions. The November temperature record is all the more remarkable since we are near the minimum of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle. Global temperatures are cooler by about 0.1°C for the two years following a solar minimum, compared to global temperatures two years after solar maximum. Our current minimum in solar energy makes it much more difficult to set monthly global temperature records.

An average November for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., November was near-average in temperature, ranking as the 46th warmest November in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to November, was the 19th warmest such period on record. No states had a top-ten warmest or coldest November on record. November 2010 precipitation was also near average. Only Montana had a top-ten wettest November on record, and no states had top-ten driest November.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.4°C below average as of December 20, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.29°C below average (as of December 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events.

November 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in November 2010 was the 2nd lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As of December 24, ice extent was the lowest on record for this time of year. Ice volume in November was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.


Figure 1. Sea ice extent in the Arctic as measured by satellites. Beginning in mid-December, ice extent was at record low levels for this time of year. Image credit: University of Bremen.

Major atmospheric pattern shift coming
The unseasonably cold weather over Europe and the Eastern U.S. is due to break between Christmas and New Year's, as the atmosphere undergoes a major shift in its circulation. The very unusual high pressure region over the Arctic is forecast to break down and be replaced by the typical low pressure region we expect to see in winter. After recording some of its coldest temperatures in 17 years this week, the UK may well see record highs on New Year's Eve as a result of the pattern shift. The pattern shift should bring the Eastern U.S. above-normal temperatures during the last few days of 2010, and a major New Year's Eve snowstorm to Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

The ZombieSat saga ends?
Last week, I blogged about ZombieSat, the rogue Galaxy-15 communications satellite that failed during a solar storm. ZombieSat has been spewing noise in the C-band microwave region that has been interfering with broadcasts from satellites in its path, including the key SES-1 satellite that relays most of the weather data wunderground and the National Weather Service uses. Within the next week, ZombieSat will close in on its sister satellite, Galaxy-16, which hosts the Public Radio Satellite Service (PRSS) feeds, among others. A few weeks ago, PRSS warned its customers (who include commercial stations as well as the nation's public broadcasters) that there would be a possibility of disruption to its services on or about December 26. But on Friday December 17, Intelsat announced that ZombieSat had lost its "lock" on Earth, resulting in a loss of power that caused the satellite's main interfering transponders to shut down. So it appears the ZombieSat saga is over, and a whole bunch of engineers and operations directors can enjoy Christmas weekend without worrying about a zombie satellite hanging 23,000 miles over their heads.

Happy holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ThurmanMerman:


The personal attacks are unwarranted good sir.
Save your breath. You'll need it to blow up your date.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
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This year will be my first white Christmas since 2002 (discounting some snow, but no significant accumulation, last year and in 2005); 2002 had 6 inches of snow on Christmas Eve-Christmas Day, about the same as the final total this year:

0726 PM SNOW 1 NW OAKVILLE 38.45N 90.33W
12/24/2010 M4.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MO TRAINED SPOTTER
STILL SNOWING VERY LIGHTLY. ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED.


Tonight: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 24. East wind at 8 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Christmas Day: Scattered flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind between 9 and 13 mph.

Saturday Night: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 11 mph.
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
Quoting caneswatch:


Forecast calls for 1-2" tomorrow night.


Actually 2-4" according to NOAA.
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Hey everyone merry christmas, if anyone doesnt mind, can you tell me if any snow is forecast for southeast georgia and how much thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey everyone merry christmas, if anyone doesnt mind, can you tell me if any snow is forecast for southeast georgia and how much thanks!
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Panoramic view of the Santa Maria crater (football field size) were the Opportunity Mars Rover is performing studies right now, click on the photo for an expanded view

Link
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BrokenWings i heard when they were handing out brains u though they said trains jumped on the first one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting floodzonenc:
Looking for the latest info on Noreaster...

I am in Greenville, NC. How much snow are the models suggesting for my area?

Thanks!


WRAL says 4-6". Amounts have increased since late this afternoon, and may increase further.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting caneswatch:


There's plenty of data now. NWS Columbia, SC isn't calling for much snow, NWS Greensville-Spartanburg is only calling for an inch. It's time to lay off the big snow amounts for the south.


I didnt say a big snow events in the south.. and I said depends on the position of the L(if it gets strong or not), and when interacts with the cold air.. lol All I was saying, it would be nice to see some snow flakes.. But anything can happen.. You know experts aren't always right.. But anyways merry christmas!
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Our local mets vary quite a bit in their forecasts... Some say 1-4" and some say 3-6".

It's been 21 years since our last white Christmas, although we came close in 2004 (Dec 26).

I love snow and will be grateful for what we can get. Caneswatch, where are you in nc?

Merry Christmas to everyone!!
Jeff
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hahahahahahahahahahahaha
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
2 new quakes in the World (Japan area) after PR....

4.8 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2010-12-25 00:57:07

5.2 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN 2010-12-25 00:22:44


The PR quake was
5.1 PUERTO RICO 2010-12-24 23:43:44

Up to now 1603 responses for PR

Link
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Looking for the latest info on Noreaster...

I am in Greenville, NC. How much snow are the models suggesting for my area?

Thanks!


18z cumulative precip for Greenville, SC -
WRF-NMM

~10mm liquid water for about 4" of snow

GFS

~25mm for about 8" of snow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floodzonenc:
Looking for the latest info on Noreaster...

I am in Greenville, NC. How much snow are the models suggesting for my area?

Thanks!


Forecast calls for 1-2" tomorrow night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking for the latest info on Noreaster...

I am in Greenville, NC. How much snow are the models suggesting for my area?

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Probably wont happen for me lol.. but wishful thinking.. Really just need some more data of how far this L will go tho.. Its hard to predict how much snow this early specially for the south..


There's plenty of data now. NWS Columbia, SC isn't calling for much snow, NWS Greensville-Spartanburg is only calling for an inch. It's time to lay off the big snow amounts for the south.
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Quoting sunlinepr:

My wife and I, felt it, went out of the house, called son and daughter. Lines were busy (ATT), seems like many people calling loved ones.... My daughter didn't noticed because she was driving, until she entered a local supermaket (Econo) and found out some people alarmed; wine bottles and other from the shelves broken in the floor.

I was at my Grandma's house with my sisters when the bed started to shake, along with the walls and chairs. Sounds like much, but it was a pretty light shaking.
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Interesting that more people aren't talking about the 18z GFS, especially since the WRF and GFS were so disparate 24 hours ago and the WRF has shifted to a slower, more developed surface system every run since.


Assuming an 8:1 liquid precip to snow ratio, that's about 80 inches for Delaware.
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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
An 8.o must be a big ass square

An 8.0 would be like the blue square area...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hey guys! See alot of you felt the earthquake too? Wasn't much here.

My wife and I, felt it, went out of the house, called son and daughter. Lines were busy (ATT), seems like many people calling loved ones.... My daughter didn't noticed because she was driving, until she entered a local supermaket (Econo) and found out some people alarmed; wine bottles and other from the shelves broken in the floor.
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USGS made a correction on that PR quake. It wasn't on the sea but Magnitude 5.1 located at 3 km ( 2 mi) W of Aguas Buenas, PR; So the map is correct...


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Hey guys! See alot of you felt the earthquake too? Wasn't much here.
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What did the NASA satellites report global temperatures for November 1712? November 1834? November 1911? November 1942?

Thought so.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11382
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Tsunami Warning north and west coast of Puerto Rico

Really? Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
They are saying there's an advisory in affect on the local radio

well, maybe it's just a watch; but after all it's a small shake
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
They are saying there's an advisory in affect on the local radio


that's not true. there are no tsunami warnings for Puerto Rico.
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
They are saying there's an advisory in affect on the local radio


well, maybe it's just a watch;
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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD
623 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HIT THE AREA SUNDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN WHITEOUTS AND SOME
ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE TO DRIFTING.
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST/
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF MARYLAND
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 65 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE TO DRIFTING
SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU
MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.


I dont think thats supposed to happen until The Day After Tomorrow. ;)
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


man, you should not say that if you don't have the information. please. don't do that again.
They are saying there's an advisory in affect on the local radio
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got it, reporting now
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Tsunami Warning north and west coast of Puerto Rico


man, you should not say that if you don't have the information. please. don't do that again.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
No Tsunami Watch, Warning, or Advisory in effect



no statement at this time
They are saying that on the local radio
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
can you send me that link?



This is the link.. Please report it if you felt it....

Link
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No Tsunami Watch, Warning, or Advisory in effect



no statement at this time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Magnitude 5.1 - KURIL ISLANDS
2010 December 24 23:42:21 UTC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Tsunami Warning north and west coast of Puerto Rico



where did you get that info. ???????
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Quoting sunlinepr:


5.4 NNE of Levitown, PR
can you send me that link?

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5.4 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Friday, December 24, 2010 at 23:43:43 UTC
Friday, December 24, 2010 at 07:43:43 PM at epicenter

Location 18.927°N, 66.072°W
Depth 45 km (28.0 miles) set by location program
Region PUERTO RICO REGION
Distances 50 km (31 miles) N (7°) from SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico
55 km (34 miles) N (7°) from Cata�o, PR
55 km (34 miles) NNE (12°) from Levittown, PR

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 19, Nph= 19, Dmin=90.8 km, Rmss=1.07 sec, Gp=166°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770


5.4 NNE of Levitown, PR


You see those two half moons areas in the sea N of PR? The one West is what they call the Arecibo amphitheatre; the one East is the Loiza amphitheatre. They think that the next one will be in the Arecibo Amp., but this one is between both. The red square is supposed to be in the sea, not inside land.
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Tsunami Warning north and west coast of Puerto Rico
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Quoting DudeIBangedYourMom:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD
623 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HIT THE AREA SUNDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN WHITEOUTS AND SOME
ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE TO DRIFTING.
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST/
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF MARYLAND
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 65 INCHES WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE DUE TO DRIFTING
SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU
MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.




re ported
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115336
Magnitude 4.6 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA
2010 December 24 23:10:56 UTC
Versión en Español
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54770

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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