The tropics: unsettled, but no major threats

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 07, 2005

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Florida
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan and formed a low pressure system just north of the western tip of Cuba is still there today, pumping plenty of moisture into Florida. This system will continue to bring heavy rains to Florida the next day or two, but is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. This low pressure system will track northwards along the cold front over the East Coast and move out to sea off the Carolina coast this weekend, and is not expected to add to the 2-5 inches of rain Tammy's remnants are bringing to the Appalachians and New England the next two days.

Atlantic areas to watch
The tropical disturbance we've been following east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is now near 10N 46W. It's convection has diminished considerably today, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days.

A non-tropical 1011 mb low is northeast of Puerto Rico near 22n56w in the central Atlantic moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Tropical development of this this low is not expected for the next two days, but could start to occur after that. The GFS model turns this into a tropical storm by Tuesday that meanders off the East Coast of the U.S., and eventually heads out to sea.


Figure 1. Model tracks for the non-tropical low northeast of Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Unsettled weather characterize most of the tropical Atlantic, and we need to keep a watchful eye for new suspect areas that may crop up.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan stands at 250, and will undoubtedly go much higher, as news reports indicate two villages 100 km west of Guatemala City are buried and unreachable. Guatemala suffered the most, with 154 dead, while El Salvador lost 65, Mexico 17, and 14 died in Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica. The remnants of Stan in the Pacific are no longer dumping heavy rain on the area, but the remnants of Stan in the Atlantic near Cuba are still pulling a moist flow of air across Central America, and are expected to bring rains of 1 - 2 inches today over much of the disaster area.

Wunderground member Norman (neavilag) in Guatemala sent me these 24 hour precipitation amounts observed in his country from Stan's rains between 8am Oct 4th and 8am Oct 5th. Up to 10.5 inches (in Spanish, pulgadas) in just 24 hours!

Retalhuleu 266mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Aduana Tecún Uman (Front Mexico) 265mm (10.5 pulgadas)
Pedro de Alvarado (Front El Salvador) 188mm (7.4 pulgadas)
San Jose 134mm (5.23 pulgadas)
Quetzaltenango 131mm (5.22 pulgadas)
Guatemala 70mm (2.75 pulgadas)

Stan's remains near Baja
The remants of Stan are still lurking near the Mexican coast by Puerto Vallarta, and still has the potential to develop into a tropical storm. This system will track northwestward over the next few days and threaten Baja California.

I'll update this by 4pm EDT if there is some significant development. Otherwise the next update will be Saturday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters

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488. StormJunkie
5:36 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Anyone around?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
487. primez
3:40 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
I just want to say something eerie, but true.

On the night of May 31st of this year, I actually had a dream of looking at the tracking map of a category 1 hurricane about to hit Long Island, NY.

It was a completely random dream, and the next morning was the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Ever since that night, I've been keeping an eye on the tracks of every storm that pops up.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
486. guygee
2:31 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
CoconutCreekFLA - Probably because I was a frustrated musician. Played in a working garage band, relegated to Bass Guitar. Also trumpet, french horn, a little alto sax. I have a good ear, but lack the physical coordination and discipline/time. So sometimes I dream of playing original music, the music is subconsciously generated in my dream, and I can sometimes remember the tune when I wake up, but I can't execute it on a musical instrument. Fingers too clumsy, voice too loud...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
485. CoconutCreekFLA
2:21 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
I have pretty vivid dreams but I don't recall music. Perhaps it has something to do with your math background.
484. CoconutCreekFLA
2:20 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
We know what you meant
483. fflattiger
2:16 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Uh Oh....chillt = chilly, please. I can spell, but type is a whole other thing grrrrrrrr.
482. guygee
2:15 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hey stormydee - You still there? Have have had weird and vivid dreams all of my life, more so as a child, but still even today. Part of it is because I enter the semi-awakened state often. It is when your consciousness becomes active but your body is sill asleep, paralyzed. That is when you keep thinking you woke up and got out of bed, but then you realize your are still dreaming, repeating over and over.

I also often have musical dreams. I have heard the buzz-drone of what George Carlin calls "The Big Electron". Very soothing.

Mostly, I think dreams serve the purpose of reorganizing memory from the previous day, sorting through what is important and what is not. When stuck on a math problem, I have woken up with the answer on occasion. Dreams are very strange for me.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
481. CoconutCreekFLA
2:15 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Interesting, Cosmic: so you are lurking when our little a.m. group posts and we lurk (usually) at night.
480. fflattiger
2:13 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Uh, Pensacola, I am thinking more Hot Chocolate than Sundae....this sudden blast of chillt weather is not to my liking.
479. CoconutCreekFLA
2:12 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Where are all the grown-ups?
478. code1
2:12 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
64 degrees right now and still breezy. I'm envious of your sunset, 12 hour days didn't offer me the opportunity to see one this past week, nor will it next week. Won't take another contract like that one again. I need the sunshine! I'm going to the beach tomorrow as well, even if it is overcast or ugly. Need some down time to look at the "big water" and soak a few cold ones. Always makes me feel better. Yeah coco, I'm out to play or lurk, depending on the posts. Have a good weekend everyone!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
477. stormydee
2:12 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
funny ff...
21 YES, sundae will definately work, please hot wire to my personal account LOL....To change your name, log out, then log in with your work email address and password...but I know its u :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
476. CosmicEvents
2:11 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
I'm a pet person....so sorry to hear about the fish. On the other hand, I'm happy to read earlier about the poodle being pluffed.
.
.
On to tropical cyclone talk.......keep an eye on the Western Caribean, especially the southwest. Something is brewing down there. All the other areas of interest in the Atlantic basin will run into too much shear.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5528
475. HurricaneKing
2:11 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Jeff has a new blog up
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
474. Pensacola22
2:08 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
You know, I am having this awful feeling... LIKE I AM AT WORK!!!
473. Pensacola22
2:07 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Stormy - How about a hot fudge sundae? lol
472. fflattiger
2:06 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
That is why I was out, Coconut. Only place i hadn't looked for my jacket was in the truck. Found it. Memo to me : Buy new jacket, store someplace other than in back of truck next summer.
471. Pensacola22
2:06 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hey all, 21 here, does anyone know how to switch blog names?? I can only seem to use the Pensacola21 @ work..
470. stormydee
2:05 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
21, did u buy me a chocolate milk shake? :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
469. stormydee
2:03 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
todays orange was quite welcome. :-)
Lots of waves out there, just nothing yet to talk about...Im tired and scared to sleep, no more fish dreams, or other things....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
468. CoconutCreekFLA
2:02 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Yes, I actually wore a shirt with sleeves today! Brr...
467. Pensacola22
2:02 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
ok people, im going to turn this over to 21 now, need to get the rug rats in order and break out the blankets......
466. fflattiger
2:01 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well here in Cent Fl..just up the street from the Rabid Rodent...my outside thermometer shows 78, and I was just out a few ago and felt chilly....breeze is enough to do that i guess.
465. CoconutCreekFLA
2:01 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
That's true stormy. The sunset was beautiful. Bright orange. (and, no, I didn't run from the orange in the sky)
464. stormydee
1:59 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
actually quite nice here, had a sunset, oh beautiful it was...maybe go to beach tomorrow to see if there still is one left.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
463. Pensacola22
1:59 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
yes it was very strange here also, dark, gloomy, and windy, now its really nice and cool, that front finally made it past us.....
462. CoconutCreekFLA
1:59 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Just a blah day in sofla. Drizzle and rain on and off. Sometime overcast, sometimes the sun peeked out. blah, blah, blah... I'd much rather have one extreme or another. This middle stuff is tiresome.
461. stormydee
1:58 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
22 guess 21 mentioned me...we have stuff in common, work, weather, hurricane destruction, etc...the norm :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
460. CoconutCreekFLA
1:57 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hi code1, I see you came out to play.
459. HurricaneKing
1:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
It is a 1010mb low.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
458. CoconutCreekFLA
1:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
does that system in the middle (around 58 and 28 n) have a little rotation to it?
457. code1
1:56 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
pcola,
Strange day here in FWB. How bout there? After all the rain today, the wind really started. Coming in from the north now and gusting 16-21 mph now. Weird for this time of night. How is it in So. Fla ccfla, stormy, billsfan, anyone else down there?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
456. stormydee
1:55 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
fish dream then fish died...
bummer.
Ive never paid...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
455. Pensacola22
1:55 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
pensacola 21 of course lol actually its mom here, katie talks on this name evenings, but uses 21 at her work with you guys days........
454. HurricaneKing
1:54 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
lol That is funny.
I'm watching this Link

Link
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
453. fflattiger
1:53 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Yeah kinda odd...I hit "Authorise $5 Payment" and it flipped to a page FULL of dire warnings and computerese that I don't understand at all.
452. CoconutCreekFLA
1:52 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
dead fish, mcdonalds, and an internet site that is to good for ff's money
451. HurricaneKing
1:51 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
whatsup?
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
450. CoconutCreekFLA
1:51 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Pensacola:who's on a mcdonalds run?
449. fflattiger
1:50 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well I rhink we all have a strange dream st some time......I know I have , and I don't drink so there goes THAT excuse....
448. tornadoty
1:48 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Wow, folks. Welcome to a SLOW night at Weather Underground.
447. Pensacola22
1:47 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
lol stormy, hold that thought, she's on a mcdonalds run right now, but i think she will want to comment on this one when she is back......
446. theboldman
1:47 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
haha lol refusing money lol wish it had done that for me lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
445. CoconutCreekFLA
1:45 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
No, can't say it's happened to me.

So did you have this dream and then your fish died afterwards?
444. fflattiger
1:43 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well that's a first. A few firsts, really. I NEVER pay for internet content. But. I tried (a first here) to become a paying viewer here. But. The system won't let me pay. I bet that's a first....how often do you hear an internet site refused money? Must be storm-related. But WHAT storm?
443. stormydee
1:43 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well, we were in a tank together and he was sad and I felt he was sick (in my dreams)...u know like esp feeling...spooked! Ever happen to u?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
442. theboldman
1:42 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
oh man scary lol sry for your fish man
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
441. CoconutCreekFLA
1:41 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
What happened in your dream? I'm sorry your fish died!
440. stormydee
1:40 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Coco, my fish died, but he came to me the last night in my dreams and Im all spooked out....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
439. stormydee
1:39 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
for anyone who does not have this Link, I have found it to be the most useful for pulling cool water vapor and i.r. satellites.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
438. CoconutCreekFLA
1:37 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Hey Stormy, just passing by and you looked lonely. How's it going?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.