CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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281. eddye
jeff 9641 how cold does it show south florida geting
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while I wait for the rain to stop...

Service

I became confused when I heard the word " Service " used with these agencies:

Revenue ' Service '
Postal ' Service '
Telephone ' Service '
Cable TV ' Service '
Civil ' Service '
Customer ' Service '

This is not what I thought ' Service ' meant.

Today, I heard two farmers talking, one of them said he had leased a bull to ' Service ' all his cows.

BAM!!! It all came into focus.
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278. eddye
wow 10 degrees in tampa thats like minnesota so that means like upper 20 south fla
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Could we maybe move the rain to Monday? It's mess'n up my t-time...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
Complete Update

It would appear.. that in the next few days.. the weather Gods are going to get even with KOG






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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This next front isn't messing around....

From Tampa AFD:

850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RELAXING THE GRADIENT...A VERY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP. COOP MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MANY
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES
AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.


Looks like we're back to where things were Wednesday with an early next week hard freeze for Florida. Very rare for the last days of fall, but not unprecedented. The cold wave of 1962 was a mid-December freeze.
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274. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
The power had gone out for a couple of hours around me while I was at work. I got home just as it came back on. The breaker didn't work and the power surge hit the house and with the breaker not working, it arc'd and started a fire in the attic. It was extremely fast and a very hot fire. It took seven fire departments about seven hours to put it out.


Sorry for what you've gone through.

.............................................


Rollercoaster on temps this weekend. Ohio Players style.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just saw this...here is great example of we simply don't know enough about natural processes to begin prognosticating on climactic scales. While not directly related to climate, an important example of us finally gaining some insight to a question that has been around for millennia.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26105/?p1=Blogs

Physicists Solve Cloud Formation Puzzle ...


I like the link to precipitation formation. Not really about cloud formation, per se, I think. Interesting topic nevertheless. I would like to see more information on this topic. Unfortunately, the assertion leading off your post is feeble. Kind of a bait and switch post in reverse.
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sea ice volume lastest

pretty much looks like we will all die around July 8th next summer, maybe 9th.
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This next front isn't messing around....

From Tampa AFD:

850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RELAXING THE GRADIENT...A VERY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP. COOP MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MANY
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES
AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
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StormwatcherCI, I'm so sorry! I lost my mother years ago three days before Christmas, I understand how hard it is to lose a family member at this time.
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The power had gone out for a couple of hours around me while I was at work. I got home just as it came back on. The breaker didn't work and the power surge hit the house and with the breaker not working, it arc'd and started a fire in the attic. It was extremely fast and a very hot fire. It took seven fire departments about seven hours to put it out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Sorry for my disappearance, I had a house fire and lost my house. We're all fine, one son and I had smoke inhalation from rescuing pets. It's been rough though, I still lost some dogs, all but one cat and my three parrots. Pray that the weather stays clear for the next week and a half so they can get a small doublewide onto my property so my kids don't spend Christmas in a motel room.
So sorry to hear this. Seems like bad things always happen close to Christmas. I lost my 34 year old brother last week to a heart attack. He leaves a wife and two sons ages 14 and 3 behind. Lost my mother in 1994 two weeks before Christmas also. Glad you and your family are okay but sorry about your pets. :(
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On another quote: 205 : Doug says: "AGW! I'm not involved...First time for everthing!" - Doug, I think we are probably poles apart on a lot of issues but I'm always glad to see your comments.

Thanx Greenie!
Ditto!

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Sorry for my disappearance, I had a house fire and lost my house. We're all fine, one son and I had smoke inhalation from rescuing pets. It's been rough though, I still lost some dogs, all but one cat and my three parrots. Pray that the weather stays clear for the next week and a half so they can get a small doublewide onto my property so my kids don't spend Christmas in a motel room.


Thats terrible news, Glad you got your family out ok. Sorry about your pets. Good luck and God Bless.

PS. Portlight may be able to help.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
265. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Sorry for my disappearance, I had a house fire and lost my house. We're all fine, one son and I had smoke inhalation from rescuing pets. It's been rough though, I still lost some dogs, all but one cat and my three parrots. Pray that the weather stays clear for the next week and a half so they can get a small doublewide onto my property so my kids don't spend Christmas in a motel room.


Glad your family is okay, excluding the animals you lost. What caused it?

...............................................

The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average).

............


Yeah...the 2010 forecast called for about the same and the USA had afternoon thundershower Bonnie as it's lone landfall.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning, everyone. Sorry for my disappearance, I had a house fire and lost my house. We're all fine, one son and I had smoke inhalation from rescuing pets. It's been rough though, I still lost some dogs, all but one cat and my three parrots. Pray that the weather stays clear for the next week and a half so they can get a small doublewide onto my property so my kids don't spend Christmas in a motel room.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Bull! WU member Quadrantid is zeroing in on Earth like planets.Bob Lazar says we almost have reverse engineered that space saucer they have at area 51.

I predict that in about 20 years those of us with connections or wealth will be able to "colonize" planets of astounding beauty and totally pristine with docile creatures that we can domesticate. All forms of pleasure will be legal and there will evolve a true Utopian society for those lucky enough to go.


What makes you think the saucer is from 'space'? Maybe aliens were always here and we are the robots they created in order to terraform the earth for them. I understand an ideal temperature for them is about 10-15 degrees higher. we've also been engineered to die off once ideal temperature has been reached.

On another quote: 205 : Doug says: "AGW! I'm not involved...First time for everthing!" - Doug, I think we are probably poles apart on a lot of issues but I'm always glad to see your comments.

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Good night folks. My last offering of the evening:



Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting pilotguy1:


We need to colonize space to survive as a specie.


Sure we do,.... then we can experiment and export, pollution and GW to those planets; just to see how they react to that....
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Quoting ZydecoDoug:
Why does anyone really pay any attention to the CSU folks, anyway? It's entirely too early think about or try to analyze what might happen in eight or nine or 10 months. Enough with the long-range forecasting. It's easy to look at the Ninas, but let's be real about how the enrvinoment will be at that time of year.
We're hoping that by figuring out what they did wrong last time, we'll eventually be able to produce a respectable [or just more respectable lol] long-range forecast. Perhaps we'll even get a real breakthrough in our understanding of global teleconnections that will enable us to produce more effective long-range forecasts of, say, the impacts of potential climate shifts.....

Besides, it's fun to speculate while the seasons down south and up north are relatively slow....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22138
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yea. It's a glorious pile of *&$#, isn't it?


A pile indeed. LOL. Nice, Kerry.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Re-post of comment #138

er ,..fer da archives.

Top 10 Global Climate Change Indicators according to the NOAA

Posted by Murielle in Climate & Change, Nature, Science & Technology, 29 Nov 2010, 0


According to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization in the U.S.) there is no doubt the Earth%u2019s climate is warming up. The data the NOAA and other organizations gather, process and combine to produce a time series of global average temperature change provides undisputable proof of a warming trend in global temperatures. This temperature change is then in turn confirmed by other observations of natural phenomena all over the world, such as rising sea levels, earlier blooming of plants in spring, melting glaciers, warming surface temperatures of lakes and reduced arctic ice (just to name a few).

To come to the conclusion that our climate is undergoing a warming trend the NOAA monitors a number of things, what they call the global climate change indicators.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
256. JRRP
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
MY day started at 7 am this morning as i responed to a fire alarm in the building some stooge pulled the pull station set alarm horns off at 7 am because the underground door to parking garage would not open because moisture had gotten into air hose that trips door and froze


Wow, reminds me of my first middle school, everyone thought it was funny to pull the alarm after a drill.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting KerryInNOLA:

Creationist Museum Acquires 5,000-Year-Old T. Rex Skeleton

In a major coup for the growing field of creation science, the perfectly preserved remains of a 5,000-year-old Tyrannosaurus Rex were delivered Monday to Tulsa's Creationist Museum of Natural History. "The Good Lord has, in His benevolence, led us to an important breakthrough for scientific inquiry," Creationist Museum of Natural History curator Dr. Elijah Gill said. "Our museum has many valuable and exciting exhibits that testify to Creation and shine light on the Lord's divine plan. But none have been as exciting—or anywhere near as old—as this new T. Rex specimen named 'Methuselah.' This skeleton, which dates back to roughly 3,000 B.C., offers the most compelling proof yet that the Earth was made by God roughly 10,000 years ago."

Added Gill: "It's awe-inspiring to gaze on something that actually lived here on Earth, so very many years ago."

Methuselah was discovered last summer in northern Turkey by a team of Oral Roberts University archaeologists, who were on a dig searching for the Tower of Babel. According to Gill, the skeleton, which stands nearly 20 feet tall, possesses terrifying, razor-sharp teeth and claws, confirming that it was an evil beast in league with Satan, the Great Deceiver.

Using advanced dating processes from the cutting edge of biblical paleontology, the Oral Roberts team determined that Methuselah lived during the late Antediluvian period, or "The Age of the Dinosaurs." They said the pristine condition of the find strongly suggests that it perished in the Great Flood, fossilizing quickly and thoroughly due to the tremendous water pressure during the event.

"It was a truly majestic beast," said Gill, gazing up at the massive skeleton. "One almost has to mourn that there was no room for it on the Ark."

Gill called the discovery "a powerfully compelling refutation" of secular scientists' long-held assertion that dinosaurs lived on Earth millions of years before humans.

"The fact that no human remains were found anywhere in the vicinity of the site of the skeleton serves as proof of the tyrannosaur's ferocity and huge appetite," Gill said.

"At most," he added, "tyrannosaurs existed a few days before the first humans, given that the birds and the beasts were created early in the week, and Adam and Eve were made on the sixth day."

Founded in 1874, the Creationist Museum of Natural History has amassed a collection of thousands of exhibits from around the world demonstrating that the Earth was made by the hand of a Divine Creator over the course of a week, roughly 10,000 years ago. Among its most prized exhibits are a trilobite believed to have lived during the Jewish Exodus and a stunning specimen of "Java Gibbon."

Methuselah has caused such a stir that even supporters of evolutionary science have found themselves caught up in "T. Rex Fever." Christopher Eldridge, director of New York's Museum of Natural History, raved that the acquisition was "absolutely inconceivable" and "not to be believed." Dr. Harmon Briggs, a Smithsonian Institution paleobiologist, gushed in a phone interview that the discovery of the 5,000-year-old beast was "mind-boggling" and "in defiance of all the human senses."

Said Gill: "I have even received an exciting letter from a paleontologist at UCLA asserting that Methuselah could be even older than 5,000 years. Who knows, it might even date back to the Sixth Day of Creation."

The T. Rex skeleton will be on public display at the museum beginning Feb. 3. Conversions will be performed every two hours at the museum's baptismal font, located in the Apologetics wing.

Good stuff :D Is this from The Onion?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Yeah I guess. Long days are the worst.
MY day started at 7 am this morning as i responed to a fire alarm in the building some stooge pulled the pull station set alarm horns off at 7 am because the underground door to parking garage would not open because moisture had gotten into air hose that trips door and froze
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good just woke up came in from work ate layed down for a nap just woke up must of been tired


Yeah I guess. Long days are the worst.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Just saw this...here is great example of we simply don't know enough about natural processes to begin prognosticating on climactic scales. While not directly related to climate, an important example of us finally gaining some insight to a question that has been around for millennia.

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26105/?p1=Blogs

Physicists Solve Cloud Formation Puzzle

Clouds sometimes form more quickly than the laws of physics seem to allow. Now atmospheric physicists think they know how

One of the biggest challenges in atmospheric physics is to explain how clouds form.

Physicists know the basics, of course: that at a certain temperature and pressure, water vapour condenses into droplets which combine to form rain drops heavy enough to fall to Earth.

The devil is in the detail. This process of droplet aggregation sometimes happens so quickly that it defies explanation. Most people will have seen clouds form in a matter of minutes and rain appear almost from nowhere.

Researchers have even measured this process. They commonly see droplets with a diameter of 15 micrometres--too small for rain--grow to 50 micrometres or more in less than half an hour. That's big enough to trigger a downpour.

The question is how this growth occurs. No standard models of droplet formation can explain it ( (at least, in the absence of ice formation). But today we have a solution thanks to the work of Vassilios Dallas and Christos Vassilicos at Imperial College, London.

more
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got to update my page be right back in a bit
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting caneswatch:


Weird night LOL. How are ya Keeper?
good just woke up came in from work ate layed down for a nap just woke up must of been tired
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Evening keeper. Still nippy in my neck of the woods.
ya chilly here too 19f right now with temps slowly rising as clipper moves in
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Hard Freeze Warning for the Panhandle.
: Hard Freeze Warning
Alert: ....HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...EXCLUDING THE BEACHES...

.LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES AT MANY OF THE RURAL SITES AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. LOWS WILL REACH 24 DEGREES AT THE NORMALLY COLDEST SITES...INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) THE
TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL AIRPORT...CHIPLEY...AND CRESTVIEW IN FLORIDA...GENEVA AND ENTERPRISE IN ALABAMA...AND CAIRO...ASHBURN...AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ALBANY IN GEORGIA.
Instructions: A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. A HARD FREEZE CAN ALSO BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS THAT ARE NOT PROPERLY PROTECTED FROM THE COLD. IT IS GENERALLY NOT NECESSARY TO RUN WATER OVERNIGHT TO PROTECT PIPES...UNLESS THE PIPES ARE EXPOSED...SUCH AS THE PIPES IN SOME TRAILERS...HOUSES ON STILTS...AND PIPES CONNECTED TO SWIMMING POOLS.
Target Area: Bay
Calhoun
Central Walton
Coastal Bay
Coastal Franklin
Coastal Gulf
Coastal Wakulla
Franklin
Gadsden
Gulf
Holmes
Inland Bay
Inland Franklin
Inland Gulf
Inland Wakulla
Jackson
Leon
Liberty
North Walton
South Walton
Wakulla
Walton
Washington

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening all how goes it on the wunder ground


Weird night LOL. How are ya Keeper?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
evening all how goes it on the wunder ground
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Why does anyone really pay any attention to the CSU folks, anyway? It's entirely too early think about or try to analyze what might happen in eight or nine or 10 months. Enough with the long-range forecasting. It's easy to look at the Ninas, but let's be real about how the enrvinoment will be at that time of year.
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Quoting Patrap:
Itsa good Link definitely.


Yup, it rocks :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
KI4FIA - Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
57.9 °F
Overcast

That's about 15 degrees higher than last night and it's supposed to get to 70 tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
What was the outlook for this winter? Seems to me that it is getting colder than normal.It might be that I'm a little older.
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Itsa good Link definitely.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
Quoting Patrap:





SSEC Global Composite Images


The Composite World image is a small image produced every three hours that shows the entire world. It is not useful for seeing specific systems, but it is useful to get an overview of what storms are going on in the world.


Nice,,,, thanks Pat ! added accordingly to the Fav list under ~~ Global SAT Tools :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting SuperYooper:


That sounds good in a Kirk kind of way. He took forms of pleasure to new heights. As long as I get my share of docile creatures to "domesticate" there won't be any problems. :)



LOL. Salude, my friend. You are one of a kind.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414





SSEC Global Composite Images


The Composite World image is a small image produced every three hours that shows the entire world. It is not useful for seeing specific systems, but it is useful to get an overview of what storms are going on in the world.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128307
Quoting KerryInNOLA:

Creationist Museum Acquires 5,000-Year-Old T. Rex Skeleton

In a major coup for the growing field of creation science, the perfectly preserved remains of a 5,000-year-old Tyrannosaurus Rex were delivered Monday to Tulsa's Creationist Museum of Natural History. "The Good Lord has, in His benevolence, led us to an important breakthrough for scientific inquiry," Creationist Museum of Natural History curator Dr. Elijah Gill said. "Our museum has many valuable and exciting exhibits that testify to Creation and shine light on the Lord's divine plan. But none have been as exciting%u2014or anywhere near as old%u2014as this new T. Rex specimen named 'Methuselah.' This skeleton, which dates back to roughly 3,000 B.C., offers the most compelling proof yet that the Earth was made by God roughly 10,000 years ago."

Added Gill: "It's awe-inspiring to gaze on something that actually lived here on Earth, so very many years ago."

Methuselah was discovered last summer in northern Turkey by a team of Oral Roberts University archaeologists, who were on a dig searching for the Tower of Babel. According to Gill, the skeleton, which stands nearly 20 feet tall, possesses terrifying, razor-sharp teeth and claws, confirming that it was an evil beast in league with Satan, the Great Deceiver.

Using advanced dating processes from the cutting edge of biblical paleontology, the Oral Roberts team determined that Methuselah lived during the late Antediluvian period, or "The Age of the Dinosaurs." They said the pristine condition of the find strongly suggests that it perished in the Great Flood, fossilizing quickly and thoroughly due to the tremendous water pressure during the event.

"It was a truly majestic beast," said Gill, gazing up at the massive skeleton. "One almost has to mourn that there was no room for it on the Ark."

Gill called the discovery "a powerfully compelling refutation" of secular scientists' long-held assertion that dinosaurs lived on Earth millions of years before humans.

"The fact that no human remains were found anywhere in the vicinity of the site of the skeleton serves as proof of the tyrannosaur's ferocity and huge appetite," Gill said.

"At most," he added, "tyrannosaurs existed a few days before the first humans, given that the birds and the beasts were created early in the week, and Adam and Eve were made on the sixth day."

Founded in 1874, the Creationist Museum of Natural History has amassed a collection of thousands of exhibits from around the world demonstrating that the Earth was made by the hand of a Divine Creator over the course of a week, roughly 10,000 years ago. Among its most prized exhibits are a trilobite believed to have lived during the Jewish Exodus and a stunning specimen of "Java Gibbon."

Methuselah has caused such a stir that even supporters of evolutionary science have found themselves caught up in "T. Rex Fever." Christopher Eldridge, director of New York's Museum of Natural History, raved that the acquisition was "absolutely inconceivable" and "not to be believed." Dr. Harmon Briggs, a Smithsonian Institution paleobiologist, gushed in a phone interview that the discovery of the 5,000-year-old beast was "mind-boggling" and "in defiance of all the human senses."

Said Gill: "I have even received an exciting letter from a paleontologist at UCLA asserting that Methuselah could be even older than 5,000 years. Who knows, it might even date back to the Sixth Day of Creation."

The T. Rex skeleton will be on public display at the museum beginning Feb. 3. Conversions will be performed every two hours at the museum's baptismal font, located in the Apologetics wing.


First of all, how did they determine it was actually 5000 years old?

I still can't figure out why some Christians think you can determine how old the Earth is based on the Bible. Considering to the Bible is not a scientific document, but according the Bible, it is the inspired Word of God written by man. That being said, it is written about us, and our relationship with God.

Additionally, Genesis says the Earth was found formless and void. When examining this, its pretty clear the Earth existed way before Genesis. Even further, to say the Bible says God created everything in 6 days doesn't necessarily mean 6 actually days either. The Bible also says, to God that a day is a thousand years, and a thousand years is a day. That is referring to God being at side of time according to the Bible. Now when you consider this, once again I say, the Bible is not a scientific document, neither is it a historical document for that matter.

After all is said in done, obviously the Bible was intentionally written that way, in essence the Bible was not written to be used to prove science or disprove science, or history for that matter.

Its pretty clear that the Bible leaves open a vast possibility about how old life is on the Earth, when the Earth was created, and if there is other life in the Universe.

The only thing the Bible makes wide in clear, is that according to the Bible, man was created set apart from other creation, but other that, there's a lot of possibility.

Even further, if that fossil is true, lets say it disproves when dinosaurs went extinct. Even still, that doesn't make the Bible any less or more credible. If you are a Christian, if anything it just make more sense for God to leave open lots of mystery for people to explore through science.
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Looks like we might have another setup thru 15 thru the 17th.. From the Models i've been looking at.. But not as cold but have to c in a few days if it changes.. anyone c this?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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