CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RipplinH2O:
To those of us in the middle, there is a balanced disagreement. You refer to your "truth", they refer to their "truth". Their "truth" is as foul to you as yours is to them. Your side continues to point to "fact", when there is no fact, just a theory, a well backed theory mind you, but still a theory. Their side continues to point to the "falsehood" in your "facts" without near the sound backing but the doubt is still there. The far left and the far right, if you will. You are just one guy doing his small part, but by twisting the dagger you push more to their right than you draw to your left. We're all pretty smart, continue to show us the science and let us decide...pull, don't push

You wrote: "Your side continues to point to 'fact', when there is no fact, just a theory". But that's wrong. There are facts. Tons of them. Mountains of data. Reams of deeply substantiated evidence. Decades and centuries and millennia of observable signs, all of them pointing to the fact that the planet is warming rapidly right now, and man's activities are largely to blame. There's no validity in the belief that the theory's adherents and detractors are on equal footing.

So far as pushing and pulling and knife-twisting, for too long the scientific community as a whole has sat back and stayed more or less silent on the premise that folks would eventually "get it". Well, folks aren't getting it, as evidenced by the fact that fewer Americans support the theory of AGW now than just a few years ago. And that's because of a widespread, pervasive, and very well-funded effort by certain groups to cast aspersions on both the science and the scientists, to make the public believe there's doubt where there is none, to hide the truth, to deny the facts. And since that silence has done nothing but cause that truth to be dismissed and downgraded while the planet continues to warm, we--the theory's adherents--are changing tack.

Yes, we're all "pretty smart"--most of us--but even pretty smart people can be led astray.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the coldest temp i have experience is minus 36 f with a chill of - 42 the hottest is 113 f heat index of 128
Where were you when you witnessed these extreme temperatures?
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Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
My college professor just gave a lecture on climate. He said the evidence for Global Warming is strong. He doesn't seem very liberal to me. He keeps his long gray hair neatly in a ponytail, wears expensive sandals to class and snacks on healthy granola.
Does he think global warming is because of mankind or from a natural phase that Earth goes into periodically.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the coldest temp i have experience is minus 36 f with a chill of - 42 the hottest is 113 f heat index of 128
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
much so i believe more like late jan early feb temps i believe most of that cold air goes sw as an arctic outflow for orca in a while
I have experienced -20 in a walk in freezer. And -2 at my parents, -46 must be fricken insane...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
where's Grothar?
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Quoting hydrus:
That is out of this world cold. Is that colder than normal for this time of the year?
much so i believe more like late jan early feb temps i believe most of that cold air goes sw as an arctic outflow for orca in a while
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Old Crow Airport
Date: 2:25 PM PST Friday 10 December 2010
Condition: Fog Depositing Ice
Pressure: 30.29 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 0.5 miles

Temperature: -45.8°F
Wind: calm
That is out of this world cold. Is that colder than normal for this time of the year?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting Jeff9641:



Also some of the coldest on record! Just ask the people in Alaska with it being -30 right now.

Old Crow Airport
Date: 2:25 PM PST Friday 10 December 2010
Condition: Fog Depositing Ice
Pressure: 30.29 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 0.5 miles

Temperature: -45.8°F
Wind: calm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059



High Wind Watch

Orleans




Statement as of 3:44 PM CST on December 10, 2010

... High wind watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a high
wind watch... which is in effect from Saturday evening through
Sunday morning.

Strong northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are
possible south and southeast of tidal lakes late Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible
along and immediately south of the shoreline of Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I 2nd that!
Thanks to you too...having said that, if it snows here, I'm gonna agree with Neo just to piss you off! (way kidding, but a pox on snow in Navarre)
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
365. IKE
Who needs a tropical storm? From New Orleans forecast.....

Saturday Night
Windy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then slight chance of light rain after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 45 mph late Saturday evening and after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I agree with ur post RipplinH2O.. Well put!


I 2nd that!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 662
363. IKE
Quoting caneswatch:


Not just the citrus, but the entire western half of this county (Palm Beach) is all crops (Sugar cane, citrus, etc.) It's going to be a HUGE loss for the growers here.

After the next cold snap, the forecast calls for 70's on Thursday.


Coldest on the 18Z GFS @ 90 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I agree with ur post RipplinH2O.. Well put!
Thanks...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
Quoting RipplinH2O:
To those of us in the middle, there is a balanced disagreement. You refer to your "truth", they refer to their "truth". Their "truth" is as foul to you as yours is to them. Your side continues to point to "fact", when there is no fact, just a theory, a well backed theory mind you, but still a theory. Their side continues to point to the "falsehood" in your "facts" without near the sound backing but the doubt is still there. The far left and the far right, if you will. You are just one guy doing his small part, but by twisting the dagger you push more to their right than you draw to your left. We're all pretty smart, continue to show us the science and let us decide...pull, don't push


I agree with ur post RipplinH2O.. Well put!
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Quoting IKE:


That would be shockingly cold and would surely effect the citrus crop. Look for OJ to go up.

GFS had trended slightly warmer yesterday, but has trended back today at 12Z.

Good news...by the end of next week...near 70 here in the panhandle....but Sunday til Tuesday look very cold for this area + windy...low wind chills...Sunday into Monday.


Not just the citrus, but the entire western half of this county (Palm Beach) is all crops (Sugar cane, citrus, etc.) It's going to be a HUGE loss for the growers here.

After the next cold snap, the forecast calls for 70's on Thursday.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting Neapolitan:

It seems to me that saying "both sides of the AGW theory debate" implies that there is a balanced disagreement between two camps squaring off across the table from one other, each holding an equal number of chips, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. The data are overwhelming and becoming more so every day, so arguing against AGW is almost like arguing against a spherical Earth or the existence of gravity. And while I'll admit that perhaps my own persuading/convincing skills are lacking, that's okay; I'm not trying to sell any particular POV. I'm just one guy doing his own small part to offset the many falsehoods and half-truths being proffered by those corporate/political interests that have the most to gain by twisting and obfuscating the scientific facts. But it's all good. ;-)
To those of us in the middle, there is a balanced disagreement. You refer to your "truth", they refer to their "truth". Their "truth" is as foul to you as yours is to them. Your side continues to point to "fact", when there is no fact, just a theory, a well backed theory mind you, but still a theory. Their side continues to point to the "falsehood" in your "facts" without near the sound backing but the doubt is still there. The far left and the far right, if you will. You are just one guy doing his small part, but by twisting the dagger you push more to their right than you draw to your left. We're all pretty smart, continue to show us the science and let us decide...pull, don't push
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Appologies for the re-hash but the circle has come back around. Until both sides of the AGW theory debate stop using terms meant to provoke and accept the possibility that their take on the theory may not be the "fact" they take it to be and make honest efforts to talk to, not at, the other side, the wheels on this bus will continue to go round and round. If your science is correct but you lack the art to persuade/convince others it is correct, your science becomes irrelavent...

It seems to me that saying "both sides of the AGW theory debate" implies that there is a balanced disagreement between two camps squaring off across the table from one other, each holding an equal number of chips, when in reality nothing could be further from the truth. The data are overwhelming and becoming more so every day, so arguing against AGW is almost like arguing against a spherical Earth or the existence of gravity. And while I'll admit that perhaps my own persuading/convincing skills are lacking, that's okay; I'm not trying to sell any particular POV. I'm just one guy doing his own small part to offset the many falsehoods and half-truths being proffered by those corporate/political interests that have the most to gain by twisting and obfuscating the scientific facts. But it's all good. ;-)
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Quoting hydrus:
My apologies to you ang JG..Me posted da wrong one...This is the one I meant for yall to see...Link....I do feel like a smacked a$$... You can see England gets another dose..


Its okay.. I went to find that map anywayz to find what u meant.. Its all good.. I knew what u were getting at.. ;) It happens
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356. IKE
Montgomery,AL. forecast...

Sunday
Breezy...colder. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of flurries in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 15 to 25 mph.

Sunday Night
Colder...clear. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

Monday Night
Clear. Lows around 17.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting yonzabam:


Isn't that just an atmospheric pressure loop? The blue is low pressure, not low temps.

Temperatures for next week here in the UK are predicted to be only a little below average. However, for about 10 days, ending Wednesday, we had a highly unusual cold spell with temps plunging to below -20C here in Scotland.

We also had a very long, cold winter last year, the worst for decades. For the past 20 years or so, winters have been unusually mild, here. Now, there seems to have been an abrupt change in the NAO, resulting in a dramatic change in weather. Too early to tell if it's a long term trend, but it's looking ominous.
My apologies to you ang JG..Me posted da wrong one...This is the one I meant for yall to see...Link....I do feel like a smacked a$$... You can see England gets another dose..
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354. IKE
Quoting caneswatch:


It's looking like it will hit the 20's here in South Florida yet again.


That would be shockingly cold and would surely effect the citrus crop. Look for OJ to go up.

GFS had trended slightly warmer yesterday, but has trended back today at 12Z.

Good news...by the end of next week...near 70 here in the panhandle....but Sunday til Tuesday look very cold for this area + windy...low wind chills...Sunday into Monday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
From Tampa,FL. discussion....

"STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
50S AND IF THE GFS VALUES OF -4C AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA ARE
CORRECT...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND BELOW NORMAL BY 20 DEGREES
OR MORE. VERY DRY AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RELAXING THE GRADIENT...A VERY
COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP. COOP MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS NEAR
10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES
AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE WARM-UP WILL BE SLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
"


It's looking like it will hit the 20's here in South Florida yet again.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Also.. Could be another cold blast by or near christmas for much 2/3 of the CONSUS.. So we will c if that verifies later..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. IKE
Looks like the GFS has trended back a little colder on today's runs...in the SE USA. Looks like a bad freeze coming up. Hope everyone is prepared.

Here's one more full discussion...from Birmingham,AL.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ONE MORE DAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD
AIR MASS INVADES THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A NICE RANGE OF NUMBERS FROM
WEST TO EAST.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIKELY POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
ENTERING WESTERN ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS
RECEIVING SOME RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION PUSHING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD
BE EAST OF ALABAMA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THAT WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW POTENTIAL
TO WRAP AROUND EFFECTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH SUCH A COLD
AIRMASS MOVING IN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR 0 TO 10 ABOVE.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SETTLES NEAR
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THINGS REALLY DON`T GET MUCH EASIER IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER THE COLD START...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
UP TO OR ABOVE 40 DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AND WILL FALL OFF FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL START TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

GFS REMAINS THE FASTER OF THE MODELS...BRINGING LIGHT QPF INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS...THE LOW
LEVELS AT THAT TIME ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE COLD -- BEGINNING TO WARM
UP...BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FREEZING PRECIP. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AND I THINK THE THREAT IS (JUST) SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE THAT...PRECIP OR
NOT ON WEDNESDAY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING -- DURING
THE DAY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER DARK IN
THE NORTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON`S HIGHS.

THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY POPS...WITH CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING OF FEATURES.

&&

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting hydrus:
Check out the CMC...It shows a huge mass of bitter cold air coming together north of the U.S. and England.I would bet we do get a good shot of it here, and especially England...Link


Isn't that just an atmospheric pressure loop? The blue is low pressure, not low temps.

Temperatures for next week here in the UK are predicted to be only a little below average. However, for about 10 days, ending Wednesday, we had a highly unusual cold spell with temps plunging to below -20C here in Scotland.

We also had a very long, cold winter last year, the worst for decades. For the past 20 years or so, winters have been unusually mild, here. Now, there seems to have been an abrupt change in the NAO, resulting in a dramatic change in weather. Too early to tell if it's a long term trend, but it's looking ominous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Check out the CMC...It shows a huge mass of bitter cold air coming together north of the U.S. and England. I would bet we do get a good shot of it here, and especially England...Link


Yes I c it.. very good possibility.. I think if we still c the -nao towards the west like this.. I believe it will be similar patterns like we starting to c and specially with more southern systems.. I think it might last into first week or 2nd week of January.. Thats from models that ive been seeing the last few days.. I think it might stay this pattern for awhile.. What do u think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
348. IKE
From Tampa,FL. discussion....

"STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
50S AND IF THE GFS VALUES OF -4C AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA ARE
CORRECT...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND BELOW NORMAL BY 20 DEGREES
OR MORE. VERY DRY AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RELAXING THE GRADIENT...A VERY
COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP. COOP MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS NEAR
10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES
AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE WARM-UP WILL BE SLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
18Z NAM:








AVN: Temps at 850MB's







Hope this will help! BBL Hope everyone is doing good..
Check out the CMC...It shows a huge mass of bitter cold air coming together north of the U.S. and England. I would bet we do get a good shot of it here, and especially England...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
346. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-111200-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...KINSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGSTOWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...
FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...
PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...
SAINT MARKS...KEATON BEACH...STEINHATCHEE...SUWANNEE...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...
SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...
DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...
MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
319 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010 /219 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010/

...MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN CANADA SHOWED A
LARGE...COLD...AND VERY DRY AIRMASS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORY. THIS AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND...ENTERING OUR AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT...AND WIND CHILL READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
COULD REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS IN THE TEENS. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES
MONDAY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES...AND THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL BELOW FREEZING. AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
WIND SPEEDS...EXTREMELY DRY AIR...AND ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF
THE YEAR...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AT LEAST
20 DEGREES AT THE NORMALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE SOME
RECENT INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY GET COLDER
THAN THIS.
SOME PLACES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS MONDAY NIGHT. THESE TYPES OF SEVERE FREEZES CAN POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO AGRICULTURE...EXPOSED WATER PIPES...SUCH AS
THOSE AT HOUSES ON STILTS...SOME TRAILERS...AND PIPES CONNECTED TO
SWIMMING POOLS. IT CAN ALSO BE DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE AND PETS THAT
LACK ADEQUATE PROTECTION.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING STORY.

$$

FOURNIER


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
18Z NAM:








AVN: Temps at 850MB's







Hope this will help! BBL Hope everyone is doing good..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Did you see his avatar? Looks quite scary.


Quite scary? Try very, that could give nightmares.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Doctors urge cholera vaccine for Haiti.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's the latest Tampa Bay weather forecast discussion in reference to the cold snap early next week:

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DEEP 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUNGING SHARPLY DOWNWARDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VALUES TO AROUND 0C OVER TAMPA BAY BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY. MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 50S AND IF THE GFS VALUES OF -4C AT 850 MB OVER THE AREA ARE CORRECT...IT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND BELOW NORMAL BY 20 DEGREES
OR MORE. VERY DRY AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND RELAXING THE GRADIENT...A VERY COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP. COOP MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE PENETRATING VERY FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE WARM-UP WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS WARMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A SEA FOG EPISODE IN THE TAIL END OF THIS COMING WEEK...AS GULF WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUNGE WITH THE ONCOMING COLD AIRMASS...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Quoting Jeff9641:


In Miami highs in the low 60's with lows in the mid 30's. Bout the same as the last blast we had but this time only lasting for 48 hours.

This mornings Miami discussion indicated it might been colder than the previous cold snap. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Appologies for the re-hash but the circle has come back around. Until both sides of the AGW theory debate stop using terms meant to provoke and accept the possibility that their take on the theory may not be the "fact" they take it to be and make honest efforts to talk to, not at, the other side, the wheels on this bus will continue to go round and round. If your science is correct but you lack the art to persuade/convince others it is correct, your science becomes irrelavent...
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! Yeah I know! Some people I swear are lost.


Very lost..........and it's sad that some of these people are older than me.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting tornadodude:


oh come on, everyone knows that Florida is the most likely target for a major hurricane :p


With our luck that we've had, it might not be long before we get hit again.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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