CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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Orleans


High Wind Watch

Statement as of 3:44 PM CST on December 10, 2010

... High wind watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a high
wind watch... which is in effect from Saturday evening through
Sunday morning.

Strong northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are
possible south and southeast of tidal lakes late Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible
along and immediately south of the shoreline of Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting Patrap:
IR Loop GOM



low level rtn flow there help feed northern storm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
G~night



Pat, you have an auto start vid prior to this post .......
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
IR Loop GOM



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting yesterway:
Regarding the 2011 hurricane outlook: It would seem that these guys would get tired of eating crow. Putting out mass amounts of beta prediction material about how this is going to happen and that is going to happen only causes confusion and gives the media something to use to blast the public with. The 2010 season was overly hyped and amounted to nothing with respect to land falling tropical systems (which is what matters). Truth is there will be little to be concerned about in the 2011 season that would be of concern to people in the US. The best method is just keep quiet and wait and see what happens. In so doing you don't lose the respect of the public and bring shame and dishonor to the scientific community which results in complacency which claims more lives than any hurricane. Quite frankly, I have lost interest and respect for these predictions. It seems to be just a numbers game and has very little useful application for the average person. Not to mention providing some remote idea of where a hurricane is going to go. After all is said and done it is still a "wait and see" issue.
1. Eating crow is the scientific way. You try different things until u find the one that works.

2. The confused ones don't listen or read. Before they even start, these guys tell you how successful they've been in the past, and IMO make it sufficiently obvious to those who read more than the news summary that their predictions are for scientific progress.

3. The season turned out not to be hyped in terms of #s of named storms, hurricanes, and majors. In fact the only area where the forecast didn't pan out was in US landfalls. Now, while YOU may believe these guys are only forecasting US landfalls, I am very much aware that they do an ATL basin forecast. I.E., they do realize there's more to the hurricane landfall potential of any season than just whether it hits the US....

4. At least Klotzbach et al are willing to substantiate their forecast for 2011 with some form of scientific data. On what are you basing YOUR forecast of nothing important happening? Amazing how you just slipped that in, even while castigating others for forecasting this early.....

5. I don't understand how making the forecast AFTER the season is going to help us develop forecasting skills. Keeping quiet smacks of unnecessary and unproductive levels of secrecy, not to mention making it rather difficult to substantiate any predictions later. The bit about shame to the scientific community also doesn't make much sense, given that the objective of this community is to broaden scientific knowledge through hypothesis - which, frankly, is what these early forecasts are.

6. Again, the objective these forecasts are trying to meet is NOT about public opinion and "usefulness" so much as it is about developing better long-range forecasts. It may take them 2 or 3 generations of scientists, but eventually the idea IS to forecast how many - and where - TCs will go, 6 months before the season starts.

I think u are looking for these early forecasts to be something more than they are meant to be. Maybe in 20 or 30 years they WILL be useable in the ways you are suggesting. But for now, lets develop some more data......
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting Neapolitan:


A non-accredited TV weatherman is not a meteorologist--and a meteorologist is not a climate scientist.

I'm asking you--no, begging you--to please let intellectual honesty guide you. If you fail to do so, people will soon stop listening to you.


My mother always told me that actions speak louder than words.

My daughters question--"What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it"--shook ME to the very core.

I could sit there and make fun of others.

Or I could realize my own vulnerability, ignorance, and hypocrisy and repent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mars Rovers Mission Using Cloud Computing


PASADENA, Calif. -- The project team that built and operates the Mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity has become the first NASA space mission to use cloud computing for daily mission operations.

Cloud computing is a way to gain fast flexibility in computing ability by ordering capacity on demand -- as if from the clouds -- and paying only for what is used. NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Project moved to this strategy last week for the software and data that the rovers' flight team uses to develop daily plans for rover activities. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., which manages the project, gained confidence in cloud computing from experience with other uses of the technology, including public participation sites about Mars exploration.

"This is a change to thinking about computer capacity and data storage as a commodity like electricity, or even the money in your bank account," said JPL's John Callas, rover project manager. "You don't keep all your money in your wallet. Instead you go to a nearby ATM and get cash when you need it. Your money is safe, and the bank can hold as much or as little of the money as you want. Data is the same way: You don't need to have it on you all the time. It can be safely stored elsewhere and you can get it anytime via an Internet connection.

"When we need more computing capacity, we don't need to install more servers if we can rent more capacity from the cloud for just the time we need it. This way we don't waste electricity and air conditioning with servers idling waiting to be used, and we don't have to worry about hardware maintenance and operating system obsolescence."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting Ossqss:
So few get it.



Did ya know he was a Met? LOL, the tyrant has arrived again. Don't ya feel it folks? He knows what is best for you and tells you everyday over and over again :)

409, (Doc exempt from this question per previous answer... most scientists I know actually walk the talk since integrity is our only asset, unlike those in political or economic power).

Do ya think he has just one car or other means of transportation ?

I gotta go, this is too easy ~~~~ L8R >>>>>>



A non-accredited TV weatherman is not a meteorologist--and a meteorologist is not a climate scientist.

I'm asking you--no, begging you--to please let intellectual honesty guide you. If you fail to do so, people will soon stop listening to you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
409, (Doc exempt from this question per previous answer... most scientists I know actually walk the talk since integrity is our only asset, unlike those in political or economic power).

Do ya think he has just one car or other means of transportation ?



While he can answer for himself, I will make an attempt. He already confessed that he flies too much.

My daughter asked a wonderful question to a panel at Focus the Nation at a major university in 2008. Most of the panelists were obviously folks whose main contribution to society was to generate carbon through their jet-setting habits. "What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it"?

Daughter thought the president of Shell gave the best answer (on changing to CFLs)--most everybody else was doing nothing but flying to talks--but I thought the best was from the IPCC person.

Talked about how he decided to ride the bus. What a wonderful way to keep up with the literature (sigh... for good public transit in Houston... when I was in Europe the ride to work was the time to do the literature reading also).

And plane trips. The IPCC person said he and others in the IPCC limited themselves to 2 international trips per year.
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This is what is going to cause the changes in temp... when it changes... then we go Ice Age.



IMHO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
whats up ppl.. everyone playing nice today.. lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...
AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT
ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IF THIS OCCURS THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WINDS...
MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AGAIN ACROSS THE
TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VERY HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AS WINDS APPROACH GALE FORCE. THERE
WILL AT LEAST BE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON ANY UPDATES TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS DANGEROUS WINDS
AND SEAS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.




LAND AREAS...AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP OVER THE LAND. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST/WEST BOUND HIGHWAYS WHERE THE WIND WILL BE
MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROADS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKES AND NEAR THE COAST.

A MODERATE TO HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting Neapolitan:


See, this is the problem with the false equivalence being built up around the GW debate: theory adherents quote actual climate scientists, while "skeptics" quote TV game show hosts, then sit back, smile smugly, and say, "See? Both sides have equally valid arguments!"

Oy, vey... ;-)


Think very carefully about what you just said.

While I myself find the attitude of paid entertainers (including "green" Oprah carting audiences half way around the world at a high carbon cost) to be, well, rather odd and apparently self-serving at times...

How do we convince folks to listen to facts?

Starting with the entertainers.

Well, perhaps with some entertainers it is living as if facts mattered.

I love U2 (dates me... I was in school when they were the "grunge" thing). Bono is always been cool to me.

But 6 jumbo jets for a world tour? I have no problem with a world tour but green please.

6 jumbo jets?

"It's a beautiful day, yah, yah". Perhaps it is time for Bono to get laid off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So few get it.

Quoting Neapolitan:


See, this is the problem with the false equivalence being built up around the GW debate: theory adherents quote actual climate scientists, while "skeptics" quote TV game show hosts, then sit back, smile smugly, and say, "See? Both sides have equally valid arguments!"

Oy, vey... ;-)


Did ya know he was a Met? LOL, the tyrant has arrived again. Don't ya feel it folks? He knows what is best for you and tells you everyday over and over again :)

409, (Doc exempt from this question per previous answer... most scientists I know actually walk the talk since integrity is our only asset, unlike those in political or economic power).

Do ya think he has just one car or other means of transportation ?

I gotta go, this is too easy ~~~~ L8R >>>>>>

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Complete Update






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ossqss:
Step up ! All I see here for the most part is name calling and definitive tyrannical communications. Read back and look at who told you how to think vs thinking and analyzing things for yourself.

Just sayin, from a little while ago, before the question marks were really exposed, the solution was very evident :)

Manmade Global Warming: The Solution
Pat Sajak Jul. 25 at 11:49am

Manmade global warming, like so many other social and economic issues, has become hopelessly politicized. Each side has dug in its heels and has accused the other of acting irresponsibly and dishonestly. For the believers, the other side has become the equivalent of Holocaust deniers; and for the doubters, the other side has become a cult intent on manipulating mankind to remake the world in some sort of natural Utopian image.

The divide has become so great, it seems virtually impossible to bridge the gap. However, Im not writing for Ricochet merely to outline problems; Im here to offer real solutions. And Im not just blowing carbon dioxide.

Lets assume that a third of the world%u2019s population really believes mankind has the power to adjust the Earths thermostat through lifestyle decisions. The percentage may be higher or lower, but, for the sake of this exercise, lets put it at one-third. Now it seems to me these people have a special obligation to change their lives dramatically because they truly believe catastrophe lies ahead if they dont. The other two-thirds are merely ignorant, so they can hardly be blamed for their actions.

Now, if those True Believers would give up their cars and big homes and truly change the way they live, I cant imagine that there wouldnt be some measurable impact on the Earth in just a few short years. Im not talking about recycling Evian bottles, but truly simplifying their lives. Even if you were, say, a former Vice President, you would give up extra homes and jets and limos. I see communes with organic farms and lives freed from polluting technology.

Then, when the rest of us saw the results of their actions you know, the earth cooling, oceans lowering, polar bears frolicking and glaciers growing we would see the error of our ways and join the crusade voluntarily and enthusiastically.

How about it? Why wait for governments to change us? You who have already seen the light have it within your grasp to act in concert with each other and change the world forever. And I hate to be a scold, but you have a special obligation to do it because you believe it so strongly. Then, instead of looking at isolated tree rings and computer models, youd have real results to point to, and even the skeptics would see the error of their ways and join you.

So start Tweeting each other and get the ball rolling. Well anxiously await results. See, I told you I had the solution. My work here is done.


More from Pat Sajak


.


See, this is the problem with the false equivalence being built up around the GW debate: theory adherents quote actual climate scientists, while "skeptics" quote TV game show hosts, then sit back, smile smugly, and say, "See? Both sides have equally valid arguments!"

Oy, vey... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I usually keep quiet on GW, but does the change in the earth's magnetic poles have anything to do with the earth cooling or warming?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"So it becomes clear that the political will ultimately cannot become effective unless there is in all mankind--especially on the part of the chief supporters of development and progress--a new, deeper moral awareness, a willingness to do without, which is concrete and which for the individual also becomes an acknowledged value for his life--Benedict XVI, "Light of the World", chapter entitled "The Global Catestrophe" on AGW.

Let's put this very bluntly. The first folks who have to slash their carbon output are those who take AGW seriously. I've slashed mine by over 50% without pain (efficiency gains). The solar panels are a bit painful.

But at least cool.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Ossqss this isn't a criticism directed at you.

When people are copy/pasting articles, they need to cut and replace all the quote marks and other symbols that wunderground is turning into %u2019t or %u2014g

Or better, wunderground needs to allow copy/pasting without transforming symbols from articles into garbage. I'll read it later ossqss but I'm too tired to deal with it now.


Understood, that actually occurred post modification of the comment. It took out all of the apostrophes and placed the garbage in its place upon any change to the original post. Watermarks see to have been infringed upon. My bad :)

Um, seems you experienced the something similar .....
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
1000 Year Temperature Reconstructions

Okay, shown above are serious temperature reconstructions.

You can kick and scream all you want, but the current rise in temperatures has a very small signal to noise ratio.

This doesn't bother me too much since I work with data where noise >> signal (microseismicity). But I know that folks do not accept it readily. And the forward modelling is also hard for some folks to accept.

The statistics have large error bars (as does the IPCC official statements).

So, what arguments can we make independent of AGW? What steps can we take that alleviate AGW that make sense independent of AGW?

Now, from a practical standpoint we need to start weening ourselves of fossil fuels since major shifts take about 30 years. We need to start with liquids (read: oil). If we wait until peak oil hits it will be to late; society will be out of business (literally).

We need to be more efficient NOW. China has made a 45% increase in efficiency its national goal. We WASTE 1/2 of the energy in this country.

Being an equal opportunity right/left blaster, question for conservatives. If your home is wasting 1/2 of its energy, why should I trust you with efficient government?

Equal opportunity... and what is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it if you think AGW is an issue (Doc exempt from this question per previous answer... most scientists I know actually walk the talk since integrity is our only asset, unlike those in political or economic power).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As I depart, look up the great lakes. How were the formed?



Then check out Greenland and the DNA of butterfly's and such found in ice cores. They were indisputably there folks. Quite relevant to the discussion.

DNA discovery reveals Greenland's warm past

Warming, is a yes (.7 - 1.4F as we can currently know it since the mid 1800's). AGW, is an unverified accompanying variable to date.

Check Phil Jones comments on the recent decades or so in his interview of a year ago or so.

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones


How confident are you with respect to all you are told to believe?

I sat on the fence for years, but the climate gate emails told me how the science could be tainted. And it has proven as such... Just sayin,, and out>>>>>>

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Some of you may recall that a few nights ago, weather.com suddenly predicted a low of 23F for Orlando. Well, that went up to 26F by the end of the next day, and to 30F shortly thereafter. Have models trended substantially colder again today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding the 2011 hurricane outlook: It would seem that these guys would get tired of eating crow. Putting out mass amounts of beta prediction material about how this is going to happen and that is going to happen only causes confusion and gives the media something to use to blast the public with. The 2010 season was overly hyped and amounted to nothing with respect to land falling tropical systems (which is what matters). Truth is there will be little to be concerned about in the 2011 season that would be of concern to people in the US. The best method is just keep quiet and wait and see what happens. In so doing you don't lose the respect of the public and bring shame and dishonor to the scientific community which results in complacency which claims more lives than any hurricane. Quite frankly, I have lost interest and respect for these predictions. It seems to be just a numbers game and has very little useful application for the average person. Not to mention providing some remote idea of where a hurricane is going to go. After all is said and done it is still a "wait and see" issue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't even want to think about next season. It's still 2010..give me a break!
"experts" are never right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FXUS62 KTBW 110100
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

.UPDATE...A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR ON
MON AND TUE MORNINGS. LOWS WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...MID 20S OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND MID TO UPPER 20S
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT BENIGN AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT FORMS
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MORNING LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FROM 129 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BRING FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I am seeing all sorts of forecasts for north Florida in the discussions---from 10 degrees mentioned in the Tampa wx discussion, to mid 20s in the Jacksonville discussion.  I wonder who will be right.

For Tuesday morning I will guess 18 Tallahassee, 21 Jacksonville, 26 Orlando, 28 Tampa.   Bet will be 5 degrees or less from that, up or down.


New Tampa discussion has temps in the middle 20s in the Tampa area and upper twenties in SW FL as a posibility.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Step up ! All I see here for the most part is name calling and definitive tyrannical communications. Read back and look at who told you how to think vs thinking and analyzing things for yourself.

Just sayin, from a little while ago, before the question marks were really exposed, the solution was very evident :)

Manmade Global Warming: The Solution
Pat Sajak Jul. 25 at 11:49am

Manmade global warming, like so many other social and economic issues, has become hopelessly politicized. Each side has dug in its heels and has accused the other of acting irresponsibly and dishonestly. For the believers, the other side has become the equivalent of Holocaust deniers; and for the doubters, the other side has become a cult intent on manipulating mankind to remake the world in some sort of natural Utopian image.

The divide has become so great, it seems virtually impossible to bridge the gap. However, Im not writing for Ricochet merely to outline problems; Im here to offer real solutions. And Im not just blowing carbon dioxide.

Lets assume that a third of the world%u2019s population really believes mankind has the power to adjust the Earths thermostat through lifestyle decisions. The percentage may be higher or lower, but, for the sake of this exercise, lets put it at one-third. Now it seems to me these people have a special obligation to change their lives dramatically because they truly believe catastrophe lies ahead if they dont. The other two-thirds are merely ignorant, so they can hardly be blamed for their actions.

Now, if those True Believers would give up their cars and big homes and truly change the way they live, I cant imagine that there wouldnt be some measurable impact on the Earth in just a few short years. Im not talking about recycling Evian bottles, but truly simplifying their lives. Even if you were, say, a former Vice President, you would give up extra homes and jets and limos. I see communes with organic farms and lives freed from polluting technology.

Then, when the rest of us saw the results of their actions you know, the earth cooling, oceans lowering, polar bears frolicking and glaciers growing we would see the error of our ways and join the crusade voluntarily and enthusiastically.

How about it? Why wait for governments to change us? You who have already seen the light have it within your grasp to act in concert with each other and change the world forever. And I hate to be a scold, but you have a special obligation to do it because you believe it so strongly. Then, instead of looking at isolated tree rings and computer models, youd have real results to point to, and even the skeptics would see the error of their ways and join you.

So start Tweeting each other and get the ball rolling. Well anxiously await results. See, I told you I had the solution. My work here is done.


More from Pat Sajak


.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
Evening, folks. Got just about all of the Christmas shopping done in one round at the mall. Just one singular pink flamingo left to go. Figure I'll find that tomorrow.... Meanwhile, up at the north pole, Santa is getting his sled sharpened up for the big trek on Christmas Eve.
Max Loop, North Pole, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 50 sec ago
-18.9 %uFFFDF
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -19 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: -24 %uFFFDF
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.14 in (Steady)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 1000 ft
Scattered Clouds 5000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 9000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 526 ft
Saturday is forecast to be warmer than today. It will be only 13 degrees below zero!

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11410
395. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
Re-post of comment #138

er ,..fer da archives.

Top 10 Global Climate Change Indicators according to the NOAA

Posted by Murielle in Climate & Change, Nature, Science & Technology, 29 Nov 2010, 0

According to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization in the U.S.) there is no doubt the Earth%u2019s climate is warming up. The data the NOAA and other organizations gather, process and combine to produce a time series of global average temperature change provides undisputable proof of a warming trend in global temperatures. This temperature change is then in turn confirmed by other observations of natural phenomena all over the world, such as rising sea levels, earlier blooming of plants in spring, melting glaciers, warming surface temperatures of lakes and reduced arctic ice (just to name a few).

To come to the conclusion that our climate is undergoing a warming trend the NOAA monitors a number of things, what they call the global climate change indicators.

I don't pull either side of the GW arguement, but looking at it from a scientific view, we need a control. I say put some weather instruments on Mars and monitor the weather there to use as the control to compare warming of earth to. In my opinion, as the sun gets older it is contributing to the warming of the planet. I mean don't get me wrong, I am sure us humans do our fair share in contributing to GW, but the experiment would provide us with something to compare the warming trends to.
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My neck of the woods for 20 years:



"The Twin Cities is the coldest major population center in the United States (45.4 F average annual), and one of the coldest in the world". From the MN Dept. of Natural Resources.


Good evening, folks.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
NASA: Hottest November on record, 2010 likely hottest year on record globally despite deepest solar minimum in a century
In U.S., heat records far exceed cold for 9th consecutive month
December 10, 2010



NASA released its monthly global temperature data, revealing November was easily the hottest in the temperature record. The meteorological year December to November was also the hottest on record. Calendar year 2010 appears poised to be the hottest on record.

These records are especially impressive because were in the middle of a strong La Nina, which would normally cool off temperatures for a few months (relatively speaking), and we've been in the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. It's just hard to stop the march of manmade global warming, other than by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is.

As for the U.S., Steve Scolnik at Capital Climate analyzed the data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for his post, November Temperature Extremes: Heat Records Far Exceed Cold For 9th Consecutive Month, which notes:

As they have for every month in 2010 except January and February, U.S. daily maximum temperature records far exceeded minimum records in November. Thanks to a cold surge in the last week of the month, the ratio of heat records to cold records declined to 1.8:1, but the ratio of 2.7:1 for the year to date is still well above that of the most recent decade.

Heat records dominated cold records by a wide margin for most of the month, reaching a peak of 126 on the 23rd. Daily cold records, on the other hand, peaked at 90 on the 25th.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129444
Quoting Orcasystems:
while I wait for the rain to stop...

Service

I became confused when I heard the word " Service " used with these agencies:

Revenue ' Service '
Postal ' Service '
Telephone ' Service '
Cable TV ' Service '
Civil ' Service '
Customer ' Service '

This is not what I thought ' Service ' meant.

Today, I heard two farmers talking, one of them said he had leased a bull to ' Service ' all his cows.

BAM!!! It all came into focus.
Hmmmm.... if u can understand the St. Kittian dialect well enough, the song at this link might be of "service" to u....

Link
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
389. BtnTx
Quoting Neapolitan:

Maybe...or maybe just people with too many other things to do on a Friday a few weeks before Christmas. ;-)
Yes, I thought about that after I posted, as I too have much to do for Christmas!
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Quoting hydrus:
Where were you when you witnessed these extreme temperatures?
subury canada for the cold in winter of jan 1986 making a delivery of parcels for couier company i remember being so cold the heater in the van could not even keep the van warmer than 50 degrees arizona for the heat summer of 88 picking up a 33 foot trailer with a 1971 international water race inside trailer
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting BtnTx:
Wow, no posts in 50 minutes! AGW discussion Burnout!

or just not feeding the trolls.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Maybe...or maybe just people with too many other things to do on a Friday a few weeks before Christmas. ;-)


Two weeks. Hopefully I can get somewhere for my month-long break.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting BtnTx:
Wow, no posts in 50 minutes! AGW discussion Burnout!

Maybe...or maybe just people with too many other things to do on a Friday a few weeks before Christmas. ;-)
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Quoting NRAamy:
where's Grothar?


Only I know......(not kidding).
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
383. BtnTx
Wow, no posts in 50 minutes! AGW discussion Burnout!
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Quoting RipplinH2O:
To those of us in the middle, there is a balanced disagreement. You refer to your "truth", they refer to their "truth". Their "truth" is as foul to you as yours is to them. Your side continues to point to "fact", when there is no fact, just a theory, a well backed theory mind you, but still a theory. Their side continues to point to the "falsehood" in your "facts" without near the sound backing but the doubt is still there. The far left and the far right, if you will. You are just one guy doing his small part, but by twisting the dagger you push more to their right than you draw to your left. We're all pretty smart, continue to show us the science and let us decide...pull, don't push

You wrote: "Your side continues to point to 'fact', when there is no fact, just a theory". But that's wrong. There are facts. Tons of them. Mountains of data. Reams of deeply substantiated evidence. Decades and centuries and millennia of observable signs, all of them pointing to the fact that the planet is warming rapidly right now, and man's activities are largely to blame. There's no validity in the belief that the theory's adherents and detractors are on equal footing.

So far as pushing and pulling and knife-twisting, for too long the scientific community as a whole has sat back and stayed more or less silent on the premise that folks would eventually "get it". Well, folks aren't getting it, as evidenced by the fact that fewer Americans support the theory of AGW now than just a few years ago. And that's because of a widespread, pervasive, and very well-funded effort by certain groups to cast aspersions on both the science and the scientists, to make the public believe there's doubt where there is none, to hide the truth, to deny the facts. And since that silence has done nothing but cause that truth to be dismissed and downgraded while the planet continues to warm, we--the theory's adherents--are changing tack.

Yes, we're all "pretty smart"--most of us--but even pretty smart people can be led astray.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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