CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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Kerry -- you state "the pendulum is swinging away from the GWer's, and the polls..." -- who really cares about "the polls" other than politicians? The scientific community seems to have a very strong consensus around human-induced or at least human-aided climate change (except for those scientists being funding by the anti-GW camp). If the citizens and politicians decide to turn their back on science, they do so at their own peril. Every day we deny this possibility is a day we lose creating a possible fix, and the more expensive (both in dollar and life terms) the fix will be. You'll have to excuse me on this, but I strongly believe there are corporate interests behind the disinformation because they know they can profit from GW. So, they want to keep the status quo, while also making plans to take advantage of the new warmer world for individual and corporate profit. Of course, who cares if much of humanity suffers so long as they can live in a gated and secure community counting their shillings???

The special interests most against climate change science -- big oil, big coal, big transportation -- greatly benefit from any stall as they can continue to profit greatly from status quo, even as our ecosystem gets severely degraded. And then, as the Arctic and Antarctic melt, they have new shipping routes open up and new locations to drill/mine. But of course, it can't be these special interests that benefit from a disinformation campaign -- it must be these evil climate scientists conspiring to get more grant money -- I'm sure they are a much more likely cause of disinformation than big oil, big coal, and big transportation. Seriously, which is more likely???

You can live under a rock if you so desire, or try to say that all of the melting and warming occurring right now is part of the "natural cycle", but as you do, think about who might be profiting from this. I am a big believer that if something doesn't make sense, look for the financial interest. The disinformation campaign against climate change is remarkably similar (and even run by many of the same characters) that successfully stalled legislation and action against the tobacco companies, even though for many years the science clearly showed they were selling a known carcinogen that they purposefully were making it more addictive. They denied it and orchestrated a clever disinformation campaign to give them an extra 10-20 years of huge profits in trade for how many innocent lives?

If this is the same, it will affect human lives on a ten or hundred-fold scale. Do me a favor -- I'll keep an eye on the new information coming out against human-aided climate change, and I'll keep a slightly open mind, if you also look at the evidence for human-aided climate change and also keep a slightly open mind. One final question: would you possibly work for or related to big oil, big coal, or big transportation???
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At the end of the day..sharing is what the site is all about.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Well written, thoughtful response. I'm not trying to nit pick either. I have no proof. I just know the pendulum has swung away from the GWers. Every day more experts say let's reevaluate things. Polls show an ever changing view of the common man against the AGW doctrine. I do hope we can figure this all out soon and come to some sort of agreement about what does or does not need to be done.


Kerry, I have been a long time lurker. I have been coming to WU since the Katrina and Rita days. This site is what really spurred my interests in the tropics and in weather in general. There are many that post on Dr. Jeff Master's blog that have offered excellent posts and increased my knowledge of weather in the tropics. You are also one that I have always read your posts and have gained some insight by doing so. Levi32 is someone that gives me great hope in our younger generations, along with TornadoDude. I hope that we will always be able to have thoughtful and meaningful conversations between us. This is how I learn and you have been very gracious and have allowed me some input of my own. For this, I thank you. I really enjoy your posts and I gain from your knowledge.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My friend, you talk as if this "theory" of AGW is a done deal. How can we define " too warm" as in GW when we can't define "just right". I propose a new term. GM. Not as in General Motors, but as in Global Milding. We may be entering a period of mild climates.They will be able to grow food further north as this Mild Age takes hold. I am not trying to be sarcastic. I only point out that something as complex as climate CAN NOT be forecasted for the future. I however am in favor of cleaning up the environment. Don't forget what the oil spill did to us so the rest of the country can have their petroleum fix.


No. I do not think that AGW is a done deal. I am still open to any evidence that would contradict AGW. I seriously hope that those that are firmly convinced in AGW are wrong. I have seen some of the evidence they offer to support their theory and what I have seen is logical. Sometimes it is overstated and sometimes it is understated. I will be the first to agree that we do not know all that is involved in global climate and that we may never know all of it. This does not undermine the evidence that has already been presented.

I am not trying to pick bones with you or to convince you that AGW is absolute. I am somewhat skeptical of what you offer up as evidence to disprove AGW. Asking what past Earth climate would be a good future Earth climate is not a compelling reason to disbelieve the AGW evidence. BTW, calling AGW or GW any other name, such as GM, does not change anything in the debate. A rose, is a rose, is a rose, by any other name. Some will say that we are lucky to be living on Earth today when the climate is mild and supports a large diversity of life. I do not believe that it is luck. I believe that life, as we know it now, would not exist on Earth if it where not for the mild climate we enjoy now. Change the climate and you change everything else as we know it.

Conservation is a good thing. Conservation will also become more necessary, if not mandatory, as we approach a population of 9,000,000,000. Regardless of what some may believe, natural resources are not an endless supply. I am pleased that you already realize this and believe in conservation.

Yes, it is true that warmer climates would benefit some species. This will also harm other species. Let us look back at the apple trees I spoke of earlier. Most species of apple trees require a certain number of freeze hours in order to produce apples the following growing season. Without these required number of freeze hours the apple tree may survive, but it will also be unproductive.

I would truly like to see any evidence you may have that disproves AGW. I will rejoice along with you when it is provided for all to see. I actually hope that the AGW evidence is wrong. I just have not seen this evidence being provided yet. I have only seen that this either a natural process on the Earth, true enough, or that there is no way puny man can change the Earth's climate, not so true.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
The Giants VS Minnesota game Scheduled in Minn for tomorrow is Moved to Monday.

Giants stuck in Kansas City as Minn is closed due to Weather.


When ya drop the "8 ball" in da corner,,the game is over.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Iz quoting bad taste, bad taste?



..are we Live?


Sowwy if's da Humor provided a sourness.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Skyepony:
Blackened Pork: Liquid Coal Subsidies Sneak into Senate Tax Bill




Turns out that the guy pushing this also takes credit for smart meters.

Rick Boucher, D-VA

Since Texas doesn't have net metering laws the smart meters have the potential of really doing bad things to solar homeowners (and are unless one lives in Austin, San Antonio, or can use one particular retailer that does offer something akin to net metering).

I knew deep in my heart that these smart meters were a plot by the coal lobby...
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Hmm, line here, but no boom. Tail end of deepest convection just far enough to my north that I cannot hear it.
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Going to be very windy and relatively cold here in the Keys this coming week. Our Key West oceanside forecast. Note that they've dropped all pretense by using the words "will be required" instead of "maybe required".

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT


OVERNIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 1 TO 3 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE
REEF 1 FOOT OR LESS. NEARSHORE WATERS SMOOTH.

SUNDAY
VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY...SHIFTING TO WEST AND
INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5
FEET LATE. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 1 TO 2 FEET...BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET
LATE. NEARSHORE WATERS A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP...BECOMING ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...INCREASING
TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE
REEF 4 TO 6 FEET BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS INSIDE
THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ENDING EARLY.

MONDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR
35 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 6 TO 10 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2
TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY.
SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 5 TO 9 FEET. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET.
NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH.

TUESDAY
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS BEYOND THE REEF 5 TO 8
FEET SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHER IN THE
GULF STREAM. SEAS INSIDE THE REEF 2 TO 4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS VERY
ROUGH.

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Low Tuesday morning for Mobile is 18! WOW!!
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Is the Alabama Gulf Coast going to get hit by a bad line of storms soon?
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Might hear the first booms heard in quite a while very shortly:

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Quoting Patrap:
Maybe, maybe not KOTG,,last year my Tree stayed up till the Super Bowl here in NOLA.

We looking to do da same again.

Right thru "Lombardi Gras"
If you get a fresh leyland cypress, they are literally impossible to light on fire for about 3 months...we get ours from a tree farm ~10 miles N of Covington. Has become an every year tradition for us.

It will continue to soak up water as long as you're giving it. At a rate of 1/2 gallon per day, hence impossible to burn and lasting a long time. Not scared to put that one near the fireplace...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Blackened Pork: Liquid Coal Subsidies Sneak into Senate Tax Bill



Not a surprise since Fischer-Trope processes are about breakeven at 70 dollar oil.

But an alarming development here in the states.

I really believe that our country needs to pioneer the way to a non-fossil fuel future (even though I work in the industry... it is finite).

Fischer-Trope plants are going to happen in China. You cannot stop it. The cannot develop without them.

But for the US, this is a travesty.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that was a nice system this one still got a show left yet


Yeppars,,they all as different as wu-bloggers.

We even retire the Bad ones permanently.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Patrap:
Reminds me of March 93 KOTG,..but a more N track.



March 93 Super



that was a nice system this one still got a show left yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Orleans
Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Freeze Watch, Wind Advisory

Statement as of 3:48 PM CST on December 11, 2010

... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM
CST Sunday...

... Freeze watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday
morning...

Strong northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are
are expected across areas that are generally along and south of a
line from Morgan City to LaPlace to New Orleans. These strong
winds are expected to begin this evening and persist through late
Sunday afternoon.

In addition... the National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a freeze
watch... which is in effect from Sunday evening through Monday
morning. The cold dome of high pressure will become entrenched
over the Gulf Coast region tonight through Tuesday morning.

Low temperatures in the 27 to 32 degree range are possible Monday
morning. The duration below the freezing mark could range from 3 to
6 hours across southeast Louisiana south of tidal lakes. Another
freeze is possible Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds greater than 25 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Motorists should exercise
caution while driving in the Wind Advisory area. Be alert to
sudden gusts of wind which may cause you to lose control of your
vehicle. Extra attention should be given to cross winds when
driving on east west oriented roadways. Additionally... take
action to secure lightweight outdoor items such as trash cans.
Strong winds can blow these items into cars and other objects
resulting in damage.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
zoom in on front in NO
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-122030-CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTO N-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-228 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM...FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF AN ACKERMAN TO MONTICELLO LINE.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN LINE BREAKS OR BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A POTENTIALLY COLDER NIGHT APPEARS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE UPPER TO MIDDLE TEENS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A HARD FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IF DAY TIME HIGHS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

$$
was a beautiful day in ECFL today...off for my hot bath. night all. looks like it will be getting cold again here in the SE US!
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Reminds me of March 93 KOTG,..but a more N track.



March 93 Super



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting P451:


Nice image P451.. Wheres that from? and how u doing?
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hey everyone.. hope everyone is being safe.. Just got home from shopping all day.. fun stuff, not! I hate freaking shopping when everyone is in a hurry and rude.. They are never patient! But anyways.. just stopping by for a bit..
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line is gaining slightly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
zoom in on front in NO
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Quoting Patrap:
Maybe, maybe not KOTG,,last year my Tree stayed up till the Super Bowl here in NOLA.

We looking to do da same again.

Right thru "Lombardi Gras"


That's too long for my tastes. Once Christmas is gone, so is the tree. lol
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
x
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think it is a legitimate question. If the Earth is getting too warm, then what is a baseline year? What IS normal are the cycles of warm and cold. True the 1990s and 2000s were very warm, but many experts are calling for cooling in the coming decades. We have got to stop this Chicken Little mentality and collect more data.

May all of you have a very blessed Christmas and a joyful New Year.


Your question is still irrelevant. The question should never be what is an "ideal" climate for the future Earth based on what you pick from the Earth's past climates. How can your question remain legitimate when the question itself is irrelevant?
Why do you even seek a "baseline" year as to what is too warm? Climate is not about a year. Weather changes from year to year based on weather patterns. Local weather events change within a single season. Climate is an overall average of conditions across the planet over many years and thousands of years. Just because Boston temperatures are dropping over the past 12 hours should not indicate that Boston will not be warmer in 2 weeks from now. Nor should this be an indication that Miami will experience a rise of temperature over the same 12 hour period and not be cooler in 2 weeks. This is weather events and not global climate.

"Chicken Little" mentality? Does your calling it this only act as a delaying tactic for the ones that want to keep the status quo? Most of us on here will be dead in 50 years. We can live your life without regards to future generations and believe that is their concern and not ours then so much the better for us now. Right? I do not accuse anyone of having this mentality but it is a mentality that is not easily over looked. "Not MY problem". Future generations depend on us now to manage the Earth as well as we can so that they too may enjoy what we have. I think sweeping this obligation under the rug now is done so without any regards to future generations. ... There is nothing wrong with everyone taking a whole apple pie now, as long as there are still apple trees to bake more. What is wrong is to not leave any apples for the future ones that would like a slice of the pie as well. Just my thoughts.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Maybe, maybe not KOTG,,last year my Tree stayed up till the Super Bowl here in NOLA.

We looking to do da same again.

Right thru "Lombardi Gras"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Quoting Patrap:
A 8 ft Douglas Fir, a Half Hour, a Xmas tree stand,..2 Trimming saw's and the SOB is in da Living room.

Phew.

Bring on the front,,Im pooped.
well just think in 21 days its out the door
here is front
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
539. IKE
Throw another log on the fire......


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A 8 ft Douglas Fir, a Half Hour, a Xmas tree stand,..2 Trimming saw's and the SOB is in da Living room.

Phew.

Bring on the front,,Im pooped.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Colors are current dewpoint analysis:


(click for full size)
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think it is a legitimate question. If the Earth is getting too warm, then what is a baseline year? What IS normal are the cycles of warm and cold. True the 1990s and 2000s were very warm, but many experts are calling for cooling in the coming decades. We have got to stop this Chicken Little mentality and collect more data.

May all of you have a very blessed Christmas and a joyful New Year.


All the time people in the US and elsewhere are saying we need to gather more evidence we are hurting the environment, species are going extinct all over the globe at up to 10,000x the historical rate.

So go on living your life to the full, don't worry about your grandchildren inheriting an impoverished planet with much of the beauty and uniqueness gone.

Sorry for the sharpness of the comment, but the liquid coal mining article posted earlier today hit a nerve. What a totally unnecessary and hurtful thing to do to the environment, just to keep the top 1% of people earning more money.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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