CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:54 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:

1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.

2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.

Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.

Jeff Masters

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quick check in,exepecting winds offshore my area(sarasota) gusting to 45mph,seas to 14ft!!!!,should have some cool pics of the local wave action tomorrow as we have a heavy surf advisory...
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630. Skyepony (Mod)
19W
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:

Chill out over global warming
By David Harsanyi
Denver Post Staff Columnist

You'll often hear the left lecture about the importance of dissent in a free society.

Why not give it a whirl?

Start by challenging global warming hysteria next time you're at a LoDo cocktail party and see what happens.

Admittedly, I possess virtually no expertise in science.......... .. .. You'll probably be called a fascist.

Don't worry, you're not. A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike.


"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."


"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."


"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."


"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."

etc..
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Dang, dropped 16F in 30min here (west of Orlando), and still falling, along with a little rain. Guess I need to exchange shorts for jeans before going to the store...

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626. Boca
I love it. Hurricane season is over less than 2 weeks and already the rush to press for next season begins. Now before the holiday season begins they choose to toss some more depressing news out. Happy Holidays. Ba humbug.
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good day
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Florida Panhandle Advisories:

Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM CST this evening...
Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am CST Monday...
Hard freeze watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning...

Woke up this AM to find my patio furniture had been rearanged and the christmas decorations had been blown over. Must have been some extreme wind gust when the front moved through.
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Good morning Keeper, Sorry I didn't see you there before I posted.
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triple point low
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
70002 checking in after a long break.

Breezy and chilly south of Lake Pontchartrain this AM. Looking for a mild freeze tonight and tomorrow night.

Good morning Chicklet and Sky pony. Mimosas on the kitchen table for you guys with French Toast, and coffee.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Buffalo, NY is in for some freezing rain then snow over the next few days. I'd stay home.
Loop
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Quoting calusakat:

Talk about taking something out of context. Three Gold Stars for you.

For the record...this was also part of the 'weather facts' context. Re:Post 600


"Show us where the weather people have any sort of equipment maintenance/placement protocol in place to assure accurate data. I went out on the net looking for such a protocol in any field and found one. Its called DAMAS and it is pretty anal in its approach to the subject of maintaining equipment and following manufacturers recommendations.

If the weather community were to follow the type of strict protocol as is demanded by DAMAS, I am confident that much of the hysteria would be greatly reduced as everyone realized just how flawed weather data collection has been.

What surprises me the most is that if I can find such information on the net, why can't anyone else do the same? It is almost as if you don't really want to know the truth and would rather read from some AGW script instead.
"

It would appear you haven't bothered to look up DAMAS and see what real equipment protocol is all about.

Why am I not surprised.




I'll assume you're referring to DAMA, and let you know that I've been a member since 2000 (originally of the Global Chapter, now switched to the Florida Chapter). (Full disclosure: my employer at the time paid for my original membership.)

(If you're not talking about DAMA, my apologies; I'll have to plead ignorance on DAMAS. Is it the Dental Appliance Manufacturers Audit System? Designs and Models for Aquatic Resource Surveys?)

The bigger question to me for contrarians is this: which level of equipment maintenance/placement protocol would be sufficient to satisfy? One prong of the ongoing attack on science has been to constantly move the goalposts. Scientists demonstrate that temps are rising everywhere; contrarians respond by questioning the validity of their measuring methods. Scientists say, okay, fine, ignore the thermometers and take a look at the deepening physical effects all over the globe; contrarians respond by saying it's all just part of a natural cycle. Scientists point out and highlight years of obfuscation and lies by the fossil fuel industry; contrarians respond with a manufactured controversy (aka 'climategate').

As Phil Jones says, contrarians will likely not believe the planet is warming until ocean waters are lapping at their ankles--and even that may not persuade all of them.

That's scare. And it's also more than a little sad.
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Holy Cow, 17 inches of snow in Minneapolis?! It's 5 degrees there now and 4 below with windchill. This front moving into SE CONUS ain't so bad after all.
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615. Skyepony (Mod)
Drought is wrecking havoc on crops in the south.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has declared disasters in parts of 16 states, with some of the driest spots in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia and Florida.
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614. Skyepony (Mod)
MINNEAPOLIS -- The inflatable roof of the Metrodome collapsed Sunday after a snowstorm that dumped 17 inches on Minneapolis. No one was hurt, but the roof failure sent the National Football League scrambling to find a new venue for the Vikings' game against the New York Giants.

The teams had been scheduled to play at noon Sunday. The game was pushed back to Monday night when Saturday's blizzard kept the Giants from flying intoo Minneapolis. But after the Teflon roof collapsed overnight, the commission that runs the Metrodome told the NFL that the stadium wouldn't be ready for a game Monday or Tuesday.

The NFL said it was considering moving the game to the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium or to another NFL domed stadium, spokesman Greg Aiello said.

Bill Lester, executive director of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission, said a crew that had been working to clear snow off the roof was pulled off late Saturday night due to safety concerns.

"There were no injuries, which we're thankful for," Lester said
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MIL turned 93 yesterday as she was Born Dec 11,1917

Shes traveling today and well,I hope TSA dont mess with her blessed soul,cuz she from Palermo originally.

And can cuzz a sailor out in Italian ,,easily.
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Dont forget to bring in your pets and plants in tonight. Yes---You do have to let your Mother-In-Law too. Sigh!
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It's 70 degrees in New Smyrna Beach now. We're forecast to drop 40 degrees by Monday night!
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County

Updated: 10:16 am EST on December 12, 2010
Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM EST this evening...
Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 2 am to 10 am EST Monday...
Hard freeze watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday morning...
Rest of Today
Increasing cloudiness with scattered showers early in the afternoon. Windy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph and gusty...becoming west. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds around 15 mph with higher gusts. Lowest wind chill readings 22 to 25 after midnight.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Windy...cold. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph and gusty.

Monday Night
Clear. Quite cold. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Call me crazy but I've noticed something....2009 was like 2006.Very little in the wway of tropical cyclone activity,2010 was like 2007 a La nina year but with very little effects of the U.S.Sooooo 2011 like 2008?.Lets hope not.I just wanted to bring that up.
Ok-- Your Crazy!
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How come the Charleston NWS hardly ever issues warnings for their counties? I am sure we meet the criteria for a wind advisory today and tonight amongst alot of other things like a wind chill advisory its going to be flat out cold when these temps bottom out later with those horrible winds causing the wind chill to be bad.
Im confused!!!
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Call me crazy but I've noticed something....2009 was like 2006.Very little in the wway of tropical cyclone activity,2010 was like 2007 a La nina year but with very little effects of the U.S.Sooooo 2011 like 2008?.Lets hope not.I just wanted to bring that up.
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38mph wind gust here in N Mobile county! 29 degrees with the wind chill! It will be in the low teens on Monday night! I Love it!
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Complete Update





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Neapolitan:

Wow. That's quite a defense. ;-)

Talk about taking something out of context. Three Gold Stars for you.

For the record...this was also part of the 'weather facts' context. Re:Post 600


"Show us where the weather people have any sort of equipment maintenance/placement protocol in place to assure accurate data. I went out on the net looking for such a protocol in any field and found one. Its called DAMAS and it is pretty anal in its approach to the subject of maintaining equipment and following manufacturers recommendations.

If the weather community were to follow the type of strict protocol as is demanded by DAMAS, I am confident that much of the hysteria would be greatly reduced as everyone realized just how flawed weather data collection has been.

What surprises me the most is that if I can find such information on the net, why can't anyone else do the same? It is almost as if you don't really want to know the truth and would rather read from some AGW script instead.
"

It would appear you haven't bothered to look up DAMAS and see what real equipment protocol is all about.

Why am I not surprised.



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Quoting Ossqss:
Let's have another look at those answers :)

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones

and evaluate the statements made by him in more depth ~~~~ how soon we forget, have fun

Phil Jones momentous Q&A with BBC reopens the “science is settled” issues

Quote

"Specifically, the Q-and-As confirm what many skeptics have long suspected:

* Neither the rate nor magnitude of recent warming is exceptional.
* There was no significant warming from 1998-2009. According to the IPCC we should have seen a global temperature increase of at least 0.2°C per decade.
* The IPCC models may have overestimated the climate sensitivity for greenhouse gases, underestimated natural variability, or both.
* This also suggests that there is a systematic upward bias in the impacts estimates based on these models just from this factor alone.
* The logic behind attribution of current warming to well-mixed man-made greenhouse gases is faulty.
* The science is not settled, however unsettling that might be.
* There is a tendency in the IPCC reports to leave out inconvenient findings, especially in the part(s) most likely to be read by policy makers. "

Jones is more adamant than ever that AGW is only just now beginning to ramp up. It's not fair to cherry pick certain statements, take them out of context, then try to make the claim that someone believes one way or another; one needs to look at the whole picture, or be subject to allegations of intellectual dishonesty, don't you think?
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Quoting calusakat:
All you have really done is recite...facts.

Wow. That's quite a defense. ;-)
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Let's have another look at those answers :)

Q&A: Professor Phil Jones

and evaluate the statements made by him in more depth ~~~~ how soon we forget, have fun

Phil Jones momentous Q&A with BBC reopens the “science is settled” issues

Quote

"Specifically, the Q-and-As confirm what many skeptics have long suspected:

* Neither the rate nor magnitude of recent warming is exceptional.
* There was no significant warming from 1998-2009. According to the IPCC we should have seen a global temperature increase of at least 0.2°C per decade.
* The IPCC models may have overestimated the climate sensitivity for greenhouse gases, underestimated natural variability, or both.
* This also suggests that there is a systematic upward bias in the impacts estimates based on these models just from this factor alone.
* The logic behind attribution of current warming to well-mixed man-made greenhouse gases is faulty.
* The science is not settled, however unsettling that might be.
* There is a tendency in the IPCC reports to leave out inconvenient findings, especially in the part(s) most likely to be read by policy makers. "
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Quoting yonzabam:


Whatever the gains may be for whoever, it shouldn't distract from the facts. These facts have been highlighted on Dr. Masters blog this year.

2010 set to be the warmest year on record, globally.

19 countries set new national high temperature records.

No country sets new national low temperature record.

Lowest Arctic Ocean ice volume on record and 3rd lowest ice area on record. Ice circumnavigated by Russian and Canadian ships for the first time.

3rd highest number of named storms recorded in an Atlantic hurricane season.

2nd 'once in 100 years drought' in Amazonia in just 5 years.

One fifth of Pakistan under water and 20 million people displaced.

Record heatwave throughout Russia and the Ukraine results in unprecedented wildfires and crop failures.

And this is just the very early stages.


So...

Are you trying to say that Mankind is at fault?

All you have really done is recite weather facts.

Show us where the weather people have any sort of equipment maintenance/placement protocol in place to assure accurate data. I went out on the net looking for such a protocol in any field and found one. Its called DAMAS and it is pretty anal in its approach to the subject of maintaining equipment and following manufacturers recommendations.

If the weather community were to follow the type of strict protocol as is demanded by DAMAS, I am confident that much of the hysteria would be greatly reduced as everyone realized just how flawed weather data collection has been.

What surprises me the most is that if I can find such information on the net, why can't anyone else do the same? It is almost as if you don't really want to know the truth and would rather read from some AGW script instead.


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To paraphrase Phil Platt: "AGW denialists yell loud and long, but their evidence is anecdotal and doesn't hold up to scrutiny. But because the forces of anti-science are so vocal, we need to keep restating the obvious." And here's the obvious: the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 150 years and continues to do so, and man's activities are the primary reason.

There's a wonderful book out called The Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming . The book's subtitle pretty much sums up that which the book goes into great detail explaining: while the strategy of denying the truth about AGW and other environmental problems doesn't make them go away, it does serve to prolong the start of making any meaningful and helpful change. If you've not already fallen hook, line, and sinker for the doctrine of agnotology put out by Big Energy and certain politicians who owe them--or perhaps if you have--you may want to read this book.

(There are many others, of course: Monbiot's Heat, Hoggan's Climate Cover-Up, and Gelbspan's The Heat is On and Boiling Point, and so on. I'll be happy to lend my copies out when I get them back from friends, or you can easily find them on Amazon.)
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Quoting calusakat:

What on earth ore you talking about?

Are you suggesting that the AGW scientists aren't funded and that they work for free? You funny.

Of course they do and there is the rub so to speak.

If you are such a believer about making sense, why not try some of your own medicine? Ask yourself what those who espouse AGW have to gain. Have you not noticed that all of their ideas means mega-money out of other peoples pockets?

Have you ever asked yourself just how much tax money actually reaches those for whom it was intended? Pennies on the dollar.

Like the saying goes...What is good for the goose is good for the gander. You can start by shining the light of truth on both sides of AGW...not just on the other side.




Whatever the gains may be for whoever, it shouldn't distract from the facts. These facts have been highlighted on Dr. Masters blog this year.

2010 set to be the warmest year on record, globally.

19 countries set new national high temperature records.

No country sets new national low temperature record.

Lowest Arctic Ocean ice volume on record and 3rd lowest ice area on record. Ice circumnavigated by Russian and Canadian ships for the first time.

3rd highest number of named storms recorded in an Atlantic hurricane season.

2nd 'once in 100 years drought' in Amazonia in just 5 years.

One fifth of Pakistan under water and 20 million people displaced.

Record heatwave throughout Russia and the Ukraine results in unprecedented wildfires and crop failures.

And this is just the very early stages.

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Quoting WthrLuvr:
The scientific community seems to have a very strong consensus around human-induced or at least human-aided climate change (except for those scientists being funding by the anti-GW camp).

You can live under a rock if you so desire, or try to say that all of the melting and warming occurring right now is part of the "natural cycle", but as you do, think about who might be profiting from this. I am a big believer that if something doesn't make sense, look for the financial interest.

What on earth ore you talking about?

Are you suggesting that the AGW scientists aren't funded and that they work for free? You funny.

Of course they aren't working for free...they are backed by mega bucks as well... and there is the rub so to speak.

If you are such a believer in making sense, why not try some of your own medicine? Ask yourself what those who espouse AGW have to gain. Have you not noticed that all of their ideas mean mega-money out of other peoples pockets?

Have you ever asked yourself just how much tax money actually reaches those for whom it was intended?

Pennies on the dollar.

Like the saying goes...What is good for the goose is good for the gander. You can start by shining the light of truth on both sides of AGW...not just on the other side.


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GOOD MORNING
HAVE A GLORIOUS DAY
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Quoting WthrLuvr:
Kerry -- you state "the pendulum is swinging away from the GWer's, and the polls..." -- who really cares about "the polls" other than politicians? The scientific community seems to have a very strong consensus around human-induced or at least human-aided climate change (except for those scientists being funding by the anti-GW camp). If the citizens and politicians decide to turn their back on science, they do so at their own peril. Every day we deny this possibility is a day we lose creating a possible fix, and the more expensive (both in dollar and life terms) the fix will be. You'll have to excuse me on this, but I strongly believe there are corporate interests behind the disinformation because they know they can profit from GW. So, they want to keep the status quo, while also making plans to take advantage of the new warmer world for individual and corporate profit. Of course, who cares if much of humanity suffers so long as they can live in a gated and secure community counting their shillings???

The special interests most against climate change science -- big oil, big coal, big transportation -- greatly benefit from any stall as they can continue to profit greatly from status quo, even as our ecosystem gets severely degraded. And then, as the Arctic and Antarctic melt, they have new shipping routes open up and new locations to drill/mine. But of course, it can't be these special interests that benefit from a disinformation campaign -- it must be these evil climate scientists conspiring to get more grant money -- I'm sure they are a much more likely cause of disinformation than big oil, big coal, and big transportation. Seriously, which is more likely???

You can live under a rock if you so desire, or try to say that all of the melting and warming occurring right now is part of the "natural cycle", but as you do, think about who might be profiting from this. I am a big believer that if something doesn't make sense, look for the financial interest. The disinformation campaign against climate change is remarkably similar (and even run by many of the same characters) that successfully stalled legislation and action against the tobacco companies, even though for many years the science clearly showed they were selling a known carcinogen that they purposefully were making it more addictive. They denied it and orchestrated a clever disinformation campaign to give them an extra 10-20 years of huge profits in trade for how many innocent lives?

If this is the same, it will affect human lives on a ten or hundred-fold scale. Do me a favor -- I'll keep an eye on the new information coming out against human-aided climate change, and I'll keep a slightly open mind, if you also look at the evidence for human-aided climate change and also keep a slightly open mind. One final question: would you possibly work for or related to big oil, big coal, or big transportation???


Spoken like someone with an open mind on the subject of AGW.... Afterall, we all know that there is no BIG corporate dollars, or even the continuation of government grants that are behind the scientist favoring the AGW theory...

You are right about one thing for sure... It is all about the MONEY and government control!!!
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I'm glad that the depth of this weekend's storm-and-freeze has tempered a bit; the chances for snow have fallen to zero in much of peninsular Florida, though they have gone up along the Panhandle. Intellicast is currently giving the following snow chances for these Florida cities over the next 10 days (which means basically the next two days):

Miami: 0%
Tampa: 0%
Jacksonville: 1%
Pensacola: 5%
Lake City: 5%
Tallahassee: 12%

And these non-Florida ones:
New Orleans, LA: 1%
Mobile, AL: 6%
Savannah, GA: 14%
Valdosta, GA: 20%
Macon, GA: 40%

Far more importantly, it's forecast to drop to below freezing for several hours all across the inland growing areas tomorrow night; 30 in Immokalee, 27 in Sebring, 26 in Frostproof (that last smack in the middle of the citrus-growing region).

FWIW, the front's not expected to pass through my area--Naples--until very late tonight; our low is forecast to only hit 52, while tomorrow night it will be just a few degrees above freezing. It should be breezy and nice today (in fact, just watch a minute or two of the "Shark Shootout" golf tournament on NBC later today to see the weather we're dealing with here; I live less than 200 yards from one of the fairways at Tiburon.)

Back to the 70s for Christmas Day and through next weekend. Works for me!
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Weather Alerts for Palm Beach County
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Thanx for the words...you bring a fair share here and it always good to see the site welcome and encourage others to chime in.
Weather,,esp the tropics is a fast paced thing at times, and the more the merrier I say.

Almost midnight here,so were off to the wunderland upstairs as the front is thru,the squall Line that is.

Wasnt much save for some showers for 20 minutes.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Things can get rather bumpy on this blog at times, especially over AGW and whether a storm will be a fish storm or not. With patience and curiosity in our search for the "truth" we'll get there. Have a good night!


The truth shall set us free. I wish for us all to be free. Thanks, Kerry.
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Quoting Patrap:
At the end of the day..sharing is what the site is all about.



Yes, Patrap. That is true. I hope that you are aware that you are also one that I always read your posts. Actually, the list is long. I do not place any one person at the top alone, but you share the top among others.

Well, I am off to play some Mahjong Titans before retiring for the night. I hope and trust that everyone stays safe and sound. I look forward to further lurking and the occasional input of my own, if only to remind Grothar that he older than I am. If wisdom comes with age, then Grothar must surely be very wise. ;-) May he age to become the wisest of all.
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For the LA/TX border, lows Sunday night around 25

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

54° F | 25° F
52° F | 29° F
61° F | 52° F
72° F | 56° F
72° F | 45° F
Clear Clear Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Hourly Hourly Hourly Hourly Hourly
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
From the NWS in Lake Charles, LA

Update...
Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area
starting at 9 am Sunday through the afternoon hours. Expect winds
over land will decrease enough a couple hours after frontal
passage that a Wind Advisory will not be needed tonight.
However...shortly after sunrise on Sunday and during the
daytime...once some solar heating and mixing takes place...winds
should become quite blustery. Expect sustained winds between 20
and 25 miles per hour with gusts to at-least 30 miles per hour.


Will also issue a Fire Danger Statement for Sunday under the
newrfdlch header. Along with the strong northerly winds...a very
dry air mass will be building into the forecast area with minimum
relative humidity values on Sunday to be in the 25 to 30 percent
range. This will create elevated fire danger.


The marine hazards...Small Craft Advisory and low water advisory...
will remain unchanged. Sustained winds already around 20 knots
with gusts to 30 knots over the near shore waters where the front
has passed. These strong northerly winds will continue to spread
over the remainder of the coastal waters by midnight with some
gusts to over gale force. Meanwhile...tide guidance is still
showing tide levels will be between (-1) and (-2) MLLW below
astronomical predicted levels...this will create actual tide
readings below (-1) MLLW. Therefore...low water conditions will
occur in the coastal lakes and bays and ship channels.


Rua

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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