CSU and TSR predict an extremely active 2011 Atlantic hurricane season
A continuation of the pattern of much above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2011, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued Wednesday by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). They are calling for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a very aggressive one, since only six seasons since 1851 have had as many as 17 named storms; 19 seasons have had 9 or more hurricanes. The 2011 forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (49% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (48% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 62% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season November atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2011 hurricane season may resemble: 2008, 1999, 1989, 1961, and 1956. The average activity for these years was 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of a much above-average season:
1) Unusually warm sea surface temperatures continue in the tropical Atlantic this fall, an indication that the active hurricane period we have been in since 1995 will continue (in technical terms, the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO, will continue.) SSTs in Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean eastwards to the coast of Africa, were at a record high in October (November data are not yet available.)
2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño events tend to increase westerly upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, bringing high wind shear harmful for hurricanes. The CSU team notes that we are currently experiencing moderate to strong La Niña conditions, with an unusual amount of cool water present in the top 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Since 1979, only eight years have had similar amounts of cool water in November. The hurricane seasons that followed each of those eight years were unable to transition to El Niño conditions. Thus, the CSU team expects that we will have neutral or La Niña conditions in place for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2011, which should act to keep wind shear values average to below average, enhancing hurricane activity. Of the 16 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2011 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 4 (25%) predicted that El Niño would arrive.
How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts did not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so the forecast scheme was overhauled and a new scheme implemented for the forecasts made for the 2008 - 2010 hurricane seasons. This new scheme showed some decent skill in those three years, with skill levels 18%, 10%, and 30% above chance for predicting the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes, respectively. Still, three years is too short of a time period to evaluate the skill of these December forecasts, and we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. Last year's December forecast for the 2010 hurricane season predicted 13.5 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.
Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2010. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 4 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 7 predict neutral conditions, and 5 predict a weak to moderate La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average. Image credit: Columbia University.
2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for a very active year: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 66% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 22% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 12% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.3°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.7 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for a weak La Niña in August-September 2011.
I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 2% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 1% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.
Comparing 2005 and 2010 steering currents
The U.S. got extremely fortunate during the 2010 hurricane season that the steering currents carried most of the storms out to sea, or forced them to the south. A very graphic way of looking at this is to compare the amount of rain that fell due to tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 2005 versus 2010 (Figure 2.) The U.S. received a direct hit only from Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida as a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and caused no significant damage. TSR is predicting that this luck will not hold in 2010; they project that five named storms will hit the U.S., with two of these being hurricanes.
Figure 2. Rainfall amounts due to all Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2005 and 2010, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Steering currents in 2010 tended to recurve many storms out to sea between the Caribbean and Bermuda, due to a large number of unusually strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast.
Weekend winter storm for Eastern U.S.
The latest 06Z (1am EST) set of computer model forecasts for this weekend's winter storm over the Midwest and Eastern U.S. point towards a more northerly path for the storm, bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Wisconsin and Michigan. There is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted timing and strength of the storm, but a renewed blast of cold air Monday and Tuesday over the Southeast U.S. is still highly likely in the wake of the storm.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Q&A: Professor Phil Jones
and evaluate the statements made by him in more depth ~~~~ how soon we forget, have fun
Phil Jones momentous Q&A with BBC reopens the “science is settled” issues
Quote
"Specifically, the Q-and-As confirm what many skeptics have long suspected:
* Neither the rate nor magnitude of recent warming is exceptional.
* There was no significant warming from 1998-2009. According to the IPCC we should have seen a global temperature increase of at least 0.2°C per decade.
* The IPCC models may have overestimated the climate sensitivity for greenhouse gases, underestimated natural variability, or both.
* This also suggests that there is a systematic upward bias in the impacts estimates based on these models just from this factor alone.
* The logic behind attribution of current warming to well-mixed man-made greenhouse gases is faulty.
* The science is not settled, however unsettling that might be.
* There is a tendency in the IPCC reports to leave out inconvenient findings, especially in the part(s) most likely to be read by policy makers. "
Wow. That's quite a defense. ;-)
Jones is more adamant than ever that AGW is only just now beginning to ramp up. It's not fair to cherry pick certain statements, take them out of context, then try to make the claim that someone believes one way or another; one needs to look at the whole picture, or be subject to allegations of intellectual dishonesty, don't you think?
Talk about taking something out of context. Three Gold Stars for you.
For the record...this was also part of the 'weather facts' context. Re:Post 600
"Show us where the weather people have any sort of equipment maintenance/placement protocol in place to assure accurate data. I went out on the net looking for such a protocol in any field and found one. Its called DAMAS and it is pretty anal in its approach to the subject of maintaining equipment and following manufacturers recommendations.
If the weather community were to follow the type of strict protocol as is demanded by DAMAS, I am confident that much of the hysteria would be greatly reduced as everyone realized just how flawed weather data collection has been.
What surprises me the most is that if I can find such information on the net, why can't anyone else do the same? It is almost as if you don't really want to know the truth and would rather read from some AGW script instead."
It would appear you haven't bothered to look up DAMAS and see what real equipment protocol is all about.
Why am I not surprised.
Im confused!!!
Forecast for Coastal Volusia County
Updated: 10:16 am EST on December 12, 2010
Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM EST this evening...
Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 2 am to 10 am EST Monday...
Hard freeze watch in effect from late Monday night through Tuesday morning...
Rest of Today
Increasing cloudiness with scattered showers early in the afternoon. Windy. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph and gusty...becoming west. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight
Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds around 15 mph with higher gusts. Lowest wind chill readings 22 to 25 after midnight.
Monday
Mostly sunny. Windy...cold. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds increasing to 20 to 25 mph and gusty.
Monday Night
Clear. Quite cold. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind
Shes traveling today and well,I hope TSA dont mess with her blessed soul,cuz she from Palermo originally.
And can cuzz a sailor out in Italian ,,easily.
The teams had been scheduled to play at noon Sunday. The game was pushed back to Monday night when Saturday's blizzard kept the Giants from flying intoo Minneapolis. But after the Teflon roof collapsed overnight, the commission that runs the Metrodome told the NFL that the stadium wouldn't be ready for a game Monday or Tuesday.
The NFL said it was considering moving the game to the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium or to another NFL domed stadium, spokesman Greg Aiello said.
Bill Lester, executive director of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission, said a crew that had been working to clear snow off the roof was pulled off late Saturday night due to safety concerns.
"There were no injuries, which we're thankful for," Lester said
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has declared disasters in parts of 16 states, with some of the driest spots in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia and Florida.
I'll assume you're referring to DAMA, and let you know that I've been a member since 2000 (originally of the Global Chapter, now switched to the Florida Chapter). (Full disclosure: my employer at the time paid for my original membership.)
(If you're not talking about DAMA, my apologies; I'll have to plead ignorance on DAMAS. Is it the Dental Appliance Manufacturers Audit System? Designs and Models for Aquatic Resource Surveys?)
The bigger question to me for contrarians is this: which level of equipment maintenance/placement protocol would be sufficient to satisfy? One prong of the ongoing attack on science has been to constantly move the goalposts. Scientists demonstrate that temps are rising everywhere; contrarians respond by questioning the validity of their measuring methods. Scientists say, okay, fine, ignore the thermometers and take a look at the deepening physical effects all over the globe; contrarians respond by saying it's all just part of a natural cycle. Scientists point out and highlight years of obfuscation and lies by the fossil fuel industry; contrarians respond with a manufactured controversy (aka 'climategate').
As Phil Jones says, contrarians will likely not believe the planet is warming until ocean waters are lapping at their ankles--and even that may not persuade all of them.
That's scare. And it's also more than a little sad.
Loop
Breezy and chilly south of Lake Pontchartrain this AM. Looking for a mild freeze tonight and tomorrow night.
Good morning Chicklet and Sky pony. Mimosas on the kitchen table for you guys with French Toast, and coffee.
Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM CST this evening...
Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am CST Monday...
Hard freeze watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning...
Woke up this AM to find my patio furniture had been rearanged and the christmas decorations had been blown over. Must have been some extreme wind gust when the front moved through.
"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."
"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."
"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."
"A true fascist is anyone who wants to take away my air conditioning or force me to ride a bike."
etc..
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