Heaviest rains in Colombia's history trigger deadly landslide; 145 dead or missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on December 06, 2010

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Colombia's heaviest rains in history triggered a landslide in the poor hillside community of Bello on Sunday, killing at least 20 people and leaving 125 missing. This year's unprecedented rainy season had already killed 176 people prior to Sunday, making it one of the deadliest flooding years in Colombia's history, according to the director of Colombia's national disaster management office, Luz Armanda Pulido. In 2009, 110 people died in flooding disasters, and 48 were killed in 2008, according to Colombian Red Cross director of national relief operations Carlos Ivan Marquez. This year's rains are the heaviest in the 42 years since Colombia's weather service was created and began taking data, agency director Ricardo Lozano said. The resulting flooding has destroyed or damaged the homes of 1.6 million people. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said the number of homeless from the flooding could reach 2 million, and said "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." Neighboring Venezuela has also been hard-hit by this year's severe rainy season--at least 30 people are dead from floods and mudslides, and tens of thousands homeless. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model (Figure 2)--calls for an additional 4 - 6 inches (100 - 150 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.


Figure 1. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of 100 - 200 mm (4 - 8 inches) has fallen near Medellin, close to where Sunday's landslide in Bello occurred. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually peaks in October, then gradually wanes in November and December. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the Equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. This year is a La Niña year, which means there is a large region of colder than average water off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Colder than average water off the Pacific coast enhances rainfall over Colombia, and this year's La Niña, which is at the borderline between the "moderate" and "strong" categories, is largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast from today's run of the GFS model predicts that region to the north and west of Bogota, Colombia may see another 100 - 150 mm (4 - 6 inches) during the coming week (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

See also my November 22 post, Colombia rainy season floods kill 136.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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I miss those fronts sometimes when all you have is 2 seasons down here is summer and not summer..LOL
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Quoting IKE:
System this coming weekend may bring some winter weather to the deep south.....

Montgomery,AL. forecast...

Sunday
Windy...colder. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Sunday Night
Much colder. Clear. Lows in the lower 20s.

Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.

Didn't see that one coming..ouch!..thanks IKE
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212. IKE
System this coming weekend may bring some winter weather to the deep south.....

Montgomery,AL. forecast...

Sunday
Windy...colder. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Sunday Night
Much colder. Clear. Lows in the lower 20s.

Monday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
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Looks like best chance for me here in the Panhandle/Naval Air Station, is tomorrow night
Link
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Snow on FL and East TX:
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I hope your feeling better now greentortuloni, My personal take on the subject is this...faith in of itself does not have to be religious..I personally believe in a creator..but I also believe in a free will of mankind to excersize it's responsibility to one another to change and adapt.If not then the consequences of our combined actions thrust us into a direction of change in which we will have little or no choice to excersize this free will.Change will always be a foe.Our ability to adapt will be our ally.The topic of our Time happens to be Global Warming.To others in their day it was something else.Man will always be challenged in this world by change.Whether he can overcome it and succeed is,IMO, purely a matter of collective use of free will.I know better than to go religious here, so thats my view on our "in-ability" to change and get correct on GW..Have we lost our ability to adapt to our enviroment?Or Can we adapt to it?And to what extent does Faith play?
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208. IKE
Low tonight, so far, 29.5 at my location.

Classic Who to start your morning...

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207. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
DEPRESSION BOB06-2010
11:30 AM IST December 7 2010
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central Bay Of Bengal

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB06-2010 over west central Bay of Bengal moved northward and lays centered near 14.5N 82.0E, or about 200 km east-southeast of Kavali, 200 km southeast of Machillipatnam and 400 km south-southwest of Vishakhapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Ongole near Kavali by today night/tomorrow morning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Sorry; no coffee yet. ;-)
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.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



What a load... Especially the part where you insinuate that most who aren't convinced believe the world is only a few thousand years old and believe cavemen shared the world with dinosaurs. Your superiority complex is astounding.

Any insinuation was purely yours, Doug. I only responded to your statement that the numbers of those who believe in the theory of AGW are shrinking by saying that the numbers are less important than their composition.

At any rate, if you knew me, you'd realize right out of the gate that I have no superiority complex. ;-) But I made a vow to no longer sit silently while the anti-truthers became more vocal and more vehement, and I intend to uphold that promise.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
To be fair, a lot of people do believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old, though I don't think there is any correlation between YECism and the denouncement of AGW.

Wanna bet? ;-)
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Quoting greentortuloni:
If someone has linked to this already, apologies. It is the analysis of November's ice extent.

Just to be a pompous ass and because I have a severe hangover and am not ready to start work yet, because the arctic ice pack has a lot of open water in it and because thickness varies, there are three measures used: Extent, Area and Volume. Extent is the area covered to the edge of the ice pack, with 'edge' being determined in different ways depending on the source. Area is extent minus an estimation of open water. Volume is area times thickness.

The best records only go back as far as satellite measurements. The scariest measurement is volume. I quote from the first paragraph of the home page of that site: "Monthly average Arctic Ice Volume for Sept 2010 was 4,000 km^3, the lowest over the 1979-2010 period, 78% below the 1979 maximum and 9,400 km^3 or 70% below its mean for the 1979-2009 period."

Warning: personal opinion ahead: That is why I say ice free arctic in the next three years. Cycles are like when a train decelerates to stop at a station and then accelerates to get to the next station. When the deceleration happens this quick, it is not natural and is evidence of a train wreck, not a normal cycle.

Also, personally I don't believe that AGW and Creationism are linked politically except by talk radio, etc.. Creationism is a belief in God, linked in America to Christianity (though other religions have similar beliefs). AGW will kill millions if not billions. I don't believe that people who really believe in the Christian faith can stand by and watch that happen without acting.

Now I think I will go throw up, I didn't even drink a lot.


This is true for most. Others, however, will ignorantly assume that God will solve everything for them.

That isn't really a fault of the Christian faith though, inasmuch as it is sheer ignorance among some of its followers.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Im out.. everyone be safe.. Weather channel says for my area AM rain near 9am.. Hmm.. well goodnight
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
If someone has linked to this already, apologies. It is the analysis of November's ice extent.

Just to be a pompous ass and because I have a severe hangover and am not ready to start work yet, because the arctic ice pack has a lot of open water in it and because thickness varies, there are three measures used: Extent, Area and Volume. Extent is the area covered to the edge of the ice pack, with 'edge' being determined in different ways depending on the source. Area is extent minus an estimation of open water. Volume is area times thickness.

The best records only go back as far as satellite measurements. The scariest measurement is volume. I quote from the first paragraph of the home page of that site: "Monthly average Arctic Ice Volume for Sept 2010 was 4,000 km^3, the lowest over the 1979-2010 period, 78% below the 1979 maximum and 9,400 km^3 or 70% below its mean for the 1979-2009 period."

Warning: personal opinion ahead: That is why I say ice free arctic in the next three years. Cycles are like when a train decelerates to stop at a station and then accelerates to get to the next station. When the deceleration happens this quick, it is not natural and is evidence of a train wreck, not a normal cycle.

Also, personally I don't believe that AGW and Creationism are linked politically except by talk radio, etc.. Creationism is a belief in God, linked in America to Christianity (though other religions have similar beliefs). AGW will kill millions if not billions. I don't believe that people who really believe in the Christian faith can stand by and watch that happen without acting.

Now I think I will go throw up, I didn't even drink a lot.
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By the way India is getting clobbered again -

TN reels under monsoon fury; death toll rises to 180

http://sify.com/news/tn-reels-under-monsoon-fury-death-toll-rises-to-180-news-national-kmgvaojdhfg. html

Kelambakkam (Kancheepuram district) recorded the maximum amount of rainfall (17 cm), followed by Mahabalipuram (13 cm), Anna University and DGP Office in Chennai (11 cm each).
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198. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
DEPRESSION BOB06-2010
8:30 AM IST December 7 2010
====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over West Central Bay Of Bengal

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and synoptic observations indicate that a depression has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and it lays centered 14.0N 82.0E, or about 230 km southeast of Kavali, 270 km south-southeast of Machlipatnam and 450 km south-southwest of Vishakhapatnam.

It. will move northwestwards and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Ongole near Kavali by today night.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Most of the southern coastal areas of Greenland are in the 30s and low 40s right now, very mild for the middle of the night in December.




This goes back to the middle of Nov., with temps into the 50's.
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Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting Patrap:
Pearl Harbor December 7,1941



Good evening, Pat. 7:55 am, Honolulu time.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
If an island state vanishes, is it still a nation? Yahoo story...

CANCUN, Mexico – Encroaching seas in the far Pacific are raising the salt level in the wells of the Marshall Islands. Waves threaten to cut one sliver of an island in two. "It's getting worse," says Kaminaga Kaminaga, the tiny nation's climate change coordinator.

The rising ocean raises questions, too: What happens if the 61,000 Marshallese must abandon their low-lying atolls? Would they still be a nation? With a U.N. seat? With control of their old fisheries and their undersea minerals? Where would they live, and how would they make a living? Who, precisely, would they and their children become?

For years global negotiations to act on climate change have dragged on, with little to show. Parties to the 193-nation U.N. climate treaty are meeting again in this Caribbean resort, but no one expects decisive action to roll back the industrial, agricultural and transport emissions blamed for global warming — and consequently for swelling seas.

From 7,000 miles (11,000 kilometers) away, the people of the Marshalls — and of Kiribati, Tuvalu and other atoll nations beyond — can only wonder how many more years they'll be able to cope.

"People who built their homes close to shore, all they can do is get more rocks to rebuild the seawall in front day by day," said Kaminaga, who is in Cancun with the Marshallese delegation to the U.N. talks.

The Marshallese government is looking beyond today, however, to those ultimate questions of nationhood, displacement and rights.

"We're facing a set of issues unique in the history of the system of nation-states," Dean Bialek, a New York-based adviser to the Republic of the Marshall Islands who is also in Cancun, told The Associated Press. "We're confronting existential issues associated with climate impacts that are not adequately addressed in the international legal framework."

The Marshallese government took a first step to confront these issues by asking for advice from the Center for Climate Change Law at New York's Columbia University. The center's director, Michael B. Gerrard, in turn has asked legal scholars worldwide to assemble at Columbia next May to begin to piece together answers.

Nations have faded into history through secession — recently with the breakup of the former Yugoslavia, for example — or through conquest or ceding their territory to other countries.

But "no country has ever physically disappeared, and it's a real void in the law," Gerrard said during an interview in New York.

The U.N. network of climate scientists projects that seas, expanding from heat and from the runoff of melting land ice, may rise by up to 1.94 feet (0.59 meters) by 2100, swamping much of the scarce land of coral atolls.

But the islands may become uninhabitable long before waves wash over them, because of the saline contamination of water supplies and ruining of crops, and because warming is expected to produce more threatening tropical storms.

"If a country like Tuvalu or Kiribati were to become uninhabitable, would the people be stateless? What's their position in international law?" asked Australian legal scholar Jane McAdam. "The short answer is, it depends. It's complicated."

McAdam, of the University of New South Wales, has traveled in the atoll nations and studied the legal history.

As far as islanders keeping their citizenship and sovereignty if they abandon their homelands, she said by telephone from Sydney, "it's unclear when a state would end because of climate change. It would come down to what the international community was prepared to tolerate" — that is, whether the U.N. General Assembly would move to take a seat away from a displaced people.

The 1951 global treaty on refugees, mandating that nations shelter those fleeing because of persecution, does not cover the looming situation of those displaced by climate change. Some advocate negotiating a new international pact obliging similar treatment for environmental refugees.

In the case of the Marshallese, the picture is murkier. Under a compact with Washington, citizens of the former U.S. trusteeship territory have the right to freely enter the U.S. for study or work, but their right to permanent residency must be clarified, government advisers say.

The islanders worry, too, about their long-term economic rights. The wide scattering of the Marshalls' 29 atolls, 2,300 miles (3,700 kilometers) southwest of Hawaii, give them an exclusive economic zone of 800,000 square miles (2 million square kilometers) of ocean, an area the size of Mexico.

The tuna coursing through those waters are the Marshalls' chief resource, exploited by selling licenses to foreign fishing fleets. "If their islands go underwater, what becomes of their fishing rights?" Gerrard asked. Potentially just as important: revenues from magnesium and other sea-floor minerals that geologists have been exploring in recent years.

While lawyers at next May's New York conference begin to sort out the puzzle of disappeared nations, the Marshallese will grapple with the growing problems.

The "top priority," Kaminaga said, is to save the isthmus linking the Marshalls' Jaluit island to its airport, a link now swept by high tides.

Meantime, a lingering drought this year led islanders to tap deeper into their wells, finding salty water requiring them to deploy emergency desalination units. And "parts of the islands are eroding away," Kaminaga said, as undermined lines of coconut palms topple into the sea.

This week in Cancun and in the months to come, the Marshalls' representatives will seek international aid for climate adaptation. They envision such projects as a Jaluit causeway, replanting of protective vegetation on shorelines, and a 3-mile-long (5-kilometer-long) seawall protecting their capital, Majuro, from the Pacific's rising tides.

Islanders' hopes are fading, however, for quick, decisive action to slash global emissions and save their remote spits of land for the next century.

"If all these financial and diplomatic tools don't work, I think some countries are looking at some kind of legal measures," said Dessima Williams, Grenada's U.N. ambassador and chair of a group of small island-nations. Those measures might include appeals to the International Court of Justice or other forums for compensation, a difficult route at best.

In the end, islanders wonder, too, what will happen to their culture, their history, their identity with a homeland — even to their ancestors — if they must leave.

"Cemeteries along the coastline are being eroded. Gravesites are falling into the sea," Kaminaga said. "Even in death we're affected."
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Guys.. Check this new run by GFS animation.. Pretty interesting for the south..

GFS-Animation

Also here is one of the images that i have been looking at if they keep flip flopping.. But GFS keeps adding more snow for the gulf states off and on..

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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Most of the southern coastal areas of Greenland are in the 30s and low 40s right now, very mild for the middle of the night in December.


..same thing was happening last yr in that area,i think they had a record warm est winter....maybe fl flurries for christmas,currently. 45.5* here on the beach in sarasota and falling quickly
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Uploaded photos of my first snow of the winter on my blog (live in Raleigh, NC)

Was a little surprised by the event, La Nina is supposed to make winter in the eastern US warmer and drier. It wouldn't suprise me that this would be the only snow in my neighborhood this year given La Nina.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey havn't seen you in awhile!!!.Where have you been hiding??


I tend to come around more during hurricane season. I still lurk though.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dec 7th is also one of my brothers birthdate. Makes it easy to remeber!
My aunt's birthday is tomorrow to.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
To be fair, a lot of people do believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old, though I don't think there is any correlation between YECism and the denouncement of AGW.
Hey havn't seen you in awhile!!!.Where have you been hiding??
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Dec 7th is also one of my brothers birthdate. Makes it easy to remeber!
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To be fair, a lot of people do believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old, though I don't think there is any correlation between YECism and the denouncement of AGW.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop







waitin on rtn flow
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Pearl Harbor December 7,1941
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for areas down south it be a killing frost any plant life will more than likly suffer damage
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
killing frost
Huh we have killing cold/wind up here.When you go outside your face immediatly turns num if you don't put something on your face.With wind chills in the tenns and single didgets.Killer cold!!!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Orleans


Freeze Warning

Statement as of 10:01 PM CST on December 06, 2010

... Freeze warning remains in effect until 8 am CST Tuesday...

The expectation of lighter winds and clear skies will provide optimal conditions for a few hours of freezing temperatures late tonight through early Tuesday morning. The duration will vary based on proximity to warmer large bodies of water. Most locations should experience at least 2 to 4 hours of freezing temperatures with some cooler locations possibly remaining below 32 degrees for 4 to 8 hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and othersensitive vegetation.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters. There is a danger of fire or poisonous fumes. Make frequent checks on the elderly.

Make sure their furnaces are working and heating the house properly.
killing frost
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mod chance flare activity
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Hmm now it seems as though the european model was right months in advance when it said the carribean will be very wet.And it seems as though that reality has come to pass and has been really bad for lots of people.
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Orleans


Freeze Warning

Statement as of 10:01 PM CST on December 06, 2010

... Freeze warning remains in effect until 8 am CST Tuesday...

The expectation of lighter winds and clear skies will provide optimal conditions for a few hours of freezing temperatures late tonight through early Tuesday morning. The duration will vary based on proximity to warmer large bodies of water. Most locations should experience at least 2 to 4 hours of freezing temperatures with some cooler locations possibly remaining below 32 degrees for 4 to 8 hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and othersensitive vegetation.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters. There is a danger of fire or poisonous fumes. Make frequent checks on the elderly.

Make sure their furnaces are working and heating the house properly.
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It seems like your average off-seaon night on the blog.Dead,and quite with GW discussions.
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GOM IR Loop







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Quoting Neapolitan:

It's true that there are fewer people in the US leaning toward a belief in AGW, but that doesn't mean much; millions of those same people believe the earth is only a few thousand years old, and that cavemen rode around on the backs of dinosaurs. At any rate, all that really proves is that those with a hugely vested interest in maintaining the fossil-fuel paradigm have conducted a fairly effective campaign of misinformation, disinformation, and obfuscation.

However, it's not at all true to state that the number of credible climate scientists is shrinking. Quite the opposite, in fact; every day more and more of those both most privy to the unbiased data and most able to correctly interpret it are signing on to the theory of AGW. The facts are becoming simply too overwhelming to ignore.



What a load... Especially the part where you insinuate that most who aren't convinced believe the world is only a few thousand years old and believe cavemen shared the world with dinosaurs. Your superiority complex is astounding.
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Hello.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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