Heaviest rains in Colombia's history trigger deadly landslide; 145 dead or missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on December 06, 2010

Colombia's heaviest rains in history triggered a landslide in the poor hillside community of Bello on Sunday, killing at least 20 people and leaving 125 missing. This year's unprecedented rainy season had already killed 176 people prior to Sunday, making it one of the deadliest flooding years in Colombia's history, according to the director of Colombia's national disaster management office, Luz Armanda Pulido. In 2009, 110 people died in flooding disasters, and 48 were killed in 2008, according to Colombian Red Cross director of national relief operations Carlos Ivan Marquez. This year's rains are the heaviest in the 42 years since Colombia's weather service was created and began taking data, agency director Ricardo Lozano said. The resulting flooding has destroyed or damaged the homes of 1.6 million people. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said the number of homeless from the flooding could reach 2 million, and said "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." Neighboring Venezuela has also been hard-hit by this year's severe rainy season--at least 30 people are dead from floods and mudslides, and tens of thousands homeless. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model (Figure 2)--calls for an additional 4 - 6 inches (100 - 150 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.


Figure 1. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of 100 - 200 mm (4 - 8 inches) has fallen near Medellin, close to where Sunday's landslide in Bello occurred. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually peaks in October, then gradually wanes in November and December. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the Equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. This year is a La Niña year, which means there is a large region of colder than average water off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Colder than average water off the Pacific coast enhances rainfall over Colombia, and this year's La Niña, which is at the borderline between the "moderate" and "strong" categories, is largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast from today's run of the GFS model predicts that region to the north and west of Bogota, Colombia may see another 100 - 150 mm (4 - 6 inches) during the coming week (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

See also my November 22 post, Colombia rainy season floods kill 136.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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The local TV weatherman has put out a derecho watch for the weekend. I wounder what that is?
Member Since: August 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1304
Quoting Jeff9641:
It snowed in Freeport,Bahamas in 1989 the same year FL got pasted with snow. I remember my granddad saying it snowed in Nassau sometime either 1977 or 1978.

I was in Luxembourg delayed due to snow in Bermuda...1975 or '76.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ne from texakana to the spine up and over eastern seaboard she goes by mon she be just over extreme eastern lake ont as it finishes up the run lake effect to follow over lakes enhancing local amounts stay tune for info on this high impacting widespread weather event

Gonna be messy alright. And you got to think whatever snow falls may in fact hang around up until the end of Decmember...promising many folks a white Christmas this year. I really don't see the cold air moderating enough to really get the thawing going at least through the end of this month.
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710. IKE
NEW BLOG!
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Quoting IKE:
Snow so close....if it wasn't so dry....



IKE you may see some Flurries in the next hour or 2.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
that will be nice i get a workout for a day and a half
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61082
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ne from texakana to the spine up and over eastern seaboard she goes by mon she be just over extreme eastern lake ont as it finishes up the run lake effect to follow over lakes enhancing local amounts stay tune for info on this high impacting widespread weather event


Yeah very strong winds and heavy snow for you in Toronto. Could be Blizzard conditions come Monday for you.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
706. IKE
Snow so close....if it wasn't so dry....

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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Who will get pounded? Hmmm...

ne from texakana to the spine up and over eastern seaboard she goes by mon she be just over extreme eastern lake ont as it finishes up the run lake effect to follow over lakes enhancing local amounts stay tune for info on this high impacting widespread weather event
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61082
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Holy Crap. That is astounding. Say bye-bye to the citrus crop.


How accurate is the Euro, usually? 15 in Orlando would probably mean about upper teens in Tampa, and would put the all-time record of 18 in play.
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Guys my Granddad was in the Bahamas at work in 1977 when it snowed there. It was a snow/ice mix.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
On January 19, 1977, Old Man Winter paid an unwelcomed visit to residents of Miami, Florida (yes, Florida, not Ohio) and brought along a surprise gift -- snow! For the first time in the history of the extreme south of Florida, snow danced through the air and dusted the ground briefly. A quarter century later, the scene has not been repeated.

The event was but one in a series of frigid weather headlines in the United States during 1977, and in many cities, it drove news of President Jimmy Carter's inauguration from the top story of the day. The Winter of 1976-77 will long be remembered by residents in the eastern half of the United States and the southeastern half of Canada. The winter ranked as the coldest to date in the US east of about the Mississippi River, averaging 4-6 Fo below normal (2.2-3.3 Co below).

In a winter where abnormal was normal, January 1977 was the showcase month in many areas. In the US from New Hampshire to Minnesota and south to Louisiana and Florida, 64 cities registered their coldest or second coldest January on record. For twenty four metropoli, it was also the coldest month ever experienced.

The cause of the unrelenting cold was a persistent atmospheric circulation pattern that established itself in early autumn 1976 and remained remarkably unchanged until late February 1977. The Aleutian Low, a semi-permanent feature of the annual circulation map, was especially deep and large that winter, spreading to cover most of the North Pacific by January. It maintained a stronger-than-normal upper-level ridge over western North America and a deeper-than-normal upper-level trough over eastern regions of the continent. A large blocking high pressure cell pushed the polar vortex far south into southern Canada, and this extremely cold air streamed out from the arctic across the eastern and central United States and southeastern Canada.


The cold air rushing across the Great Lakes buried the basin's snowbelt areas from November to January with conditions particularly severe in upper New York State. Buffalo, New York received so much snow -- a total of 181.1 inches (460 cm) between October 1 and March 1 -- that the city was forced to ship snow removed from streets out of town by rail.

The full story of this extraordinary Winter deserves a book-length treatment, which is not our intention here. The story on which we focus here took place 1400 miles (2250 km) to the south, in a state know mostly as a refuge from winter.

The morning of January 19, 1977 was a great surprise to the residents of Greater Miami who thought themselves exempt from the ravages of winter raging to the north. The Miami Herald confirmed the event in banner headlines of a size usually reserved for the declaration of war or of victory. The front page of the January 20 edition read:

Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Who will get pounded? Hmmm...

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Quoting stillwaiting:
...its never snowed in the bahamas that im aware of....
well there is a first for everything
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61082
It snowed in Freeport,Bahamas in 1989 the same year FL got pasted with snow. I remember my granddad saying it snowed in Nassau sometime either 1977 or 1978.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey by the way I just wanted to know from you guys what you think if it snowed over the yucatan cuba cayman and bahamas (besides that it is improbable)
...its never snowed in the bahamas that im aware of....
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Before this cold gets here Sunday night we should see one dangerous line of thunderstorms charging through with winds gusting to 50 maybe 60 mph as this squall line blast through. I would also expect that N FL and the Panhandle will get a dusting of snow as this wrap around moisture should be significant.




first there was secondary then comes prime

waitin on rtn flow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61082
Quoting Jeff9641:
Before this cold gets here Sunday night we should see one dangerous line of thunderstorms charging through with winds gusting to 50 maybe 60 mph as this squall line blast through. I would also expect that N FL and the Panhandle will get a dusting of snow as this wrap around moisture should be significant.

Sounds like a derecho type setup. Usually precedes a deep arctic blast.
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Before this cold gets here Sunday night we should see one dangerous line of thunderstorms charging through with winds gusting to 50 maybe 60 mph as this squall line blast through. I would also expect that N FL and the Panhandle will get a dusting of snow as this wrap around moisture should be significant.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
So I usually lurk and this is off topic but...

I just finished a MET final and the only question I couldn't figure out was a definition for 'Low Density Rimming'. I found nothing on google or even the AMS glossary. Does anybody know?

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Quoting Patrap:
.."All we are saying,..is Give Peace a chance"...

I hear ya Pat. Can you believe it's been 30 years to the date already?

"I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round & round"
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Quoting Jeff9641:



Even if what the NWS is saying of temps in the 18 to 22 range would be catastrophic to all FL growers. Orange Juice will jump up in price as will Limes, Strawberry's, Sugar, and all other fruit/vegetables grown here. This would also be devastating to all the fish in lakes and surrounding oceans.

Wow...then there's quite a bit at stake if that pans out. Let's hope not.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Holy Crap. That is astounding. Say bye-bye to the citrus crop.



Even if what the NWS is saying of temps in the 18 to 22 range would be catastrophic to all FL growers. Orange Juice will jump up in price as will Limes, Strawberry's, Sugar, and all other fruit/vegetables grown here. This would also be devastating to all the fish in lakes and surrounding oceans.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting Jeff9641:
Euro is showing low temps of 14 to 15 in Orlando with winds of 20mph. This will be devastating to all of C and S FL growers. OMG!!!!Yikes!!!

Holy Crap. That is astounding. Say bye-bye to the citrus crop.
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.."All we are saying,..is Give Peace a chance"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137188
Euro is showing low temps of 14 to 15 in Orlando with winds of 20mph. This will be devastating to all of C and S FL growers. OMG!!!!Yikes!!!
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
This next Blast will be colder than any night we had last year.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
NWS of Melbourne

This would be devastating for FL Citrus growers. This could equal the 1989 Christmas Blast of Artic Air. Upper 20's in Downtown Miami as well.


THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WITH THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...BOTH INDICATE THE 0C H85 ISOTHERM WILL PUSH
ALMOST INTO THE FL STRAITS BTWN 00Z-12Z TUE. MEX MOS GUIDANCE HAS
RESPONDED BY DROPPING TUE MORNING MINS A FULL 10-15F ACRS THE BOARD
WITH U10/L20S N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND L/M20S ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS
. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST RUN TO INDICATE THIS
TREND...WILL OVERSHOOT GUIDANCE BY 5F DEG. HOWEVER...THE JET
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS QUITE STRONG AND AMPLIFIED. SHOULD
ENOUGH OF THE ENERGY TRANSLATE EWD...A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK
MAY OCCUR.

Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
685. IKE
"""Everybody's talkin and no one says a word"""

"""Their starvin back in China so finish what you got"""

"""There's a little yellow island to the north of Katmandu"""


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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12425
Quoting WxLogic:


I'm in Apopka, FL.

Ok, I know were thats at. Very nice area over there and a big lake to go fishing in.
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Quoting Ameister12:

That's cold? Yeah right. How does 8 degrees sound to you?


:(... Yeah that's colder... jeje.
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Quoting severstorm:

Morning where are you at in cfl? I am in zephyrhills next to the green swamp have 21.9


I'm in Apopka, FL.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Morning...

Man is cold!!! 28.5F in CFL.

Morning where are you at in cfl? I am in zephyrhills next to the green swamp have 21.9
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679. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike, Are those two lakes keeping you warm this morning?


Warmer this morning. Low of 31.1. Clouds moving in now from the west.

Yeah...the 2 lakes help some. PWS about 6 miles from here and it's 23.2 there.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Morning...

Man is cold!!! 28.5F in CFL.


44 here in Oldsmar at 7:00. It was 39 at 11:00 last night. Didn't expect the temp to rise overnight.
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It dropped down to 28 overnight but its been coming up for the last couple of hours as the moister comes in.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Morning...

Man is cold!!! 28.5F in CFL.

That's cold? Yeah right. How does 8 degrees sound to you?
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Morning...

Man is cold!!! 28.5F in CFL.
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Morning Ike, Are those two lakes keeping you warm this morning?
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It's 35 degrees in New Smyrna Beach.
By Friday and Saturday it will be in the 70s.
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672. IKE
Defuniak Springs,FL. forecast....

Sunday Night
Much colder. Mostly clear. Lows around 24.

Monday
Colder. Mostly sunny. Highs around 38.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 19.

Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs around 47.
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OUCH.......Good Morning
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I'm seeing readings for my ZIP code of 44, 41, and 41--still a way from the forecast 34. Not sure whether we'll make it, though there are two hours of darkness left. Freezing seems unlikely; however, the dew point is 37 and there's no wind, so a bit of frost on certain surfaces is inevitable.

Oh, yeah: good morning. The fire is down to embers; I'm gonna stir it up a bit, throw on a couple of small sticks, and get some coffee going. Then I'll stop back by...
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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE, FORMER BOB06-2010
11:30 AM IST December 8 2010
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB06-2010 over coastal Andhra Pradesh has weakened into a well marked low pressure area and now lays over central Andhra Pradesh.

This is the final tropical cyclone bulletin from the India Meteorological Department
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I hope you have a nice night.


U too.. Night!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


haha.. Im probably heading to bed to watch a movie then sleep..



I hope you have a nice night.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Apparently. More tunes?


haha.. Im probably heading to bed to watch a movie then sleep..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Am I the only one still up.. lol


Apparently. More tunes?
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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