Amazon rainforest recovering from its second 100-year drought in 5 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:32 PM GMT on December 03, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Life-giving rains have returned over the past two months to Earth's greatest rainforest--the mighty Amazon--after it experienced its second 100-year drought in five years this year. The record drought began in April, during the usual start to the region's dry season, when rainfall less than 75% of average fell over much of the southern Amazon (Figure 2.) The drought continued through September, and by October, when the rainy season finally arrived, the largest northern tributary of the Amazon River--the Rio Negro--had dropped to thirteen feet (four meters) below its usual dry season level. This was its lowest level since record keeping began in 1902. The low water mark is all the more remarkable since the Rio Negro caused devastating flooding in 2009, when it hit an all-time record high, 53 ft (16 m) higher than the 2010 record low. The 2010 drought is similar in intensity and scope to the region's previous 100-year drought, which hit the Amazon in 2005, according to Brazil's National Institute of Space Research. Severe fires burned throughout the Amazon in both 2005 and 2010, leading to declarations of states of emergencies.


Figure 1. Hundreds of fires (red squares) generate thick smoke over a 1000 mile-wide region of the southern Amazon rain forest in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on August 16, 2010. The Bolivian government declared a state of emergency in mid-August due to the out-of-control fires burning over much of the country. Image credit: NASA.

Causes of the great 2010 Amazon drought
During the 20th Century, drought was a frequent visitor to the Amazon, with significant droughts occurring an average of once every twelve years. These droughts typically occurred during El Niño years, when the unusually warm waters present along the Pacific coast of South America altered rainfall patterns. But 2010 was a La Niña year. The 100-year drought of 2005 occurred in an El Niño-neutral year. Subsequent analysis of the 2005 drought revealed that it was unlike previous El Niño-driven droughts, and instead was caused by record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (Phillips et al., 2009.) These warm ocean waters affected the southern 2/3 of the Amazon though reduced precipitation and higher than average temperatures. Very similar record Atlantic sea surface temperatures were observed in 2010, and likely were the dominant cause for the 2010 drought.


Figure 2. The great Amazon drought of 2010 began in April, when portions of the southern Amazon recorded precipitation amounts less than 75% of normal (brown colors). The drought spread northward and peaked during July and August, but drew to a close by November when the rainy season began. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The importance of the Amazon to Earth's climate
We often hear about how important Arctic sea ice is for keeping Earth's climate cool, but the Amazon may be even more important. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest takes about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, in 2005, the drought reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 16 - 22% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. According to Phillips et al., 2009, "The exceptional growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2005, the third greatest in the global record, may have been partially caused by the Amazon drought effects documented here." The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. In late 2009, before the 2010 drought, the World Wildlife Federation released a report, Major Tipping Points in the Earth's Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector, which suggested that odds of extreme 2005-like droughts in the Amazon had increased from once every 40 - 100 years, to once every 20 years. The study projected that the extreme droughts would occur once every two years by 2025 - 2050. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be correct. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the past five years, when no El Niño conditions were present and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred, are suggestive of a link between global warming and extreme Amazon drought. If the climate continues to warm as expected, the future health of Earth's greatest rainforest may be greatly threatened, and the Amazon may begin acting to increase the rate of global warming. According to Rosie Fisher, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado who specializes in interactions between climate and forests, "I'm genuinely quite alarmed by this. In some ways it kind of reminds me of when they figured out than the Greenland ice sheet was melting much faster than the climate models predicted it would."

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazon falls to lowest rate on record
There is some good news from the Amazon--deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have fallen 14% in the past year, and are at their lowest rate on record, according to mongabay.com, an environmental science and conservation news site that focuses on tropical forests. In 2009, Brazil passed a law committing to a 36 - 39% reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases. Reducing deforestation by 80% by 2020 was the primary method envisioned to achieve the reduction. Brazil is now four years ahead of that schedule, and no longer is the world's biggest deforester--Indonesia now cuts down more acreage of forest each year than Brazil does.

For more information
Nick Sundt at the WWF Climate Blog has a remarkably detailed post on this year's Amazon drought, and Dr. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has another excellent post.

Phillips, et al., 2009, Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest, Science 6 March 2009: Vol. 323 no. 5919 pp. 1344-1347 DOI: 10.1126/science.1164033.

I'll have new post Monday or Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 196 - 146

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


si pero no lo causamos los humanos

Me entristece ver que la negacin de la verdad existe en muchos idiomas. ;-)


I don't speak spanish but I'll take a stab at the translation.

"Humans are a lost cause."

and

"The negotiators are a bunch of idiots."


My attempting to translate from spanish must be what it feels like for illiterates.
Not a good feeling.

Was I anywhere near correct?




Nope.

"yes, but not caused by man" (referring to warmer SSTs)

"interesting that the debate about the truth takes place in many languages"

I think...
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Just so long as it doesn't skip over Pensacola!

I remember back in '89 it was supposed to snow here and I was watching the radar returns on the weather channel. They were all passing just off the coast missing me by a mile or two. The snow showers were moving quickly to the east and were coming onshore over in Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties. I was miserable because we had a 100 percent chance for snow and it didn't happen. Cold w/o snow is a waste of cold!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Snow.. Florida... 108 hours out :)
And yes...it went over Destin, from NOLA to get there :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


looks a little on the spotty side
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
GFS hints at some southern snow next week? Link

Not likely, but still interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocBen:
dakster, misanthrope, etc - All the various comments about ways to approach thse issues shows that if reasonably intelligent people come together they can come up with solutions that work. Too bad the so-called negotiators cannot understand that.


I hear ya... I still have a hard time with the fact that my first car (a 1984 Honda CRX) got 40 MPG Hwy and 32 MPG City and wasn't even fuel injected. Here we are 27 model years later (2011's are out) and in order to get that kind of mileage it has to be a hybrid or full electric vehicle???

Footnote: I know safety and convenience features make cars heavier... and granted it wasn't going to win any speed races as I needed a calender to time 0-60. However, top speed was 95mph (which is faster than any speed limit in the US), had A/C, and a 1000 watt radio in it.

BTW, beautiful day in South Florida today. No rain and low 70's.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10653
Good afternoon everyone -- been away for a long time. Good to see familiar faces.

Loving the cool weather here in Miami. High on Tuesday of only 60 --- that's a real cold front for us!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, I need a cold snap for Destin Florida if your taking requests... Snow would be a bonus :)



Second that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on rtn flow


OK, I need a cold snap for Destin Florida if your taking requests... Snow would be a bonus :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
waitin on rtn flow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
dakster, misanthrope, etc - All the various comments about ways to approach thse issues shows that if reasonably intelligent people come together they can come up with solutions that work. Too bad the so-called negotiators cannot understand that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
184. JRRP
Quoting Neapolitan:

Me entristece ver que la negación de la verdad existe en muchos idiomas. ;-)

jejejejje
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting Dakster:



Cool beans! In Hawaii I can see it working really well. The infrastructure is there and it has got to be a little easier since it is an Island. Rather than diguring out how you are going to be able to drive your electric car on a 300 mile trip across very rural areas of the CONUS.


You never heard of a long extension cord?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't believe 20 Degree temps are upon us again here in the Florida panhandle. I guess another solar hot air heating panel is the solution against the Gas company's outrageous rates.

Does anyone have a temperature prognosis or resource for the Florida Panhandle area this winter?

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone has mentioned EV's and asserted that they really wouldn't help us reduce GhG's, but these two links refute that:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=electric-cars-cost-per-charge
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/07/20/MNGT7R3OH81.DTL
Researchers also found that plug-in hybrids reduced greenhouse gases no matter what energy source was used to produce the electricity, whether coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind or solar. Electric hybrids generated 40 to 65 percent less greenhouse gas than gas-fueled vehicles and 7 to 46 percent less than conventional hybrids.
Also, this is interesting:
http://www.ev.com/guides/electric-cars-guides/evs-can-carbon-hitchhike-from-sleeping-coal-plants.ht ml
It has been postulated that 2,000,000 EV's could be charged overnight in Australia alone using this overcapacity before the electric utility would have to gear up and burn more coal to meet increased demand. In theory that would mean that 10% of the Australian population could get a free carbon ride just by switching from fossil fuel burning vehicles to electric cars (EVs).
It's also virtually certain that our power grid will clean up, assuming that this AGW scare is real and genuine. EVs have hte unique advantage that they will get better over time as new regulations and technologies are employed to clean up the grid.

It's possible to pick apart the studies I linked and focus on non-optimal and shaky circumstances to make EVs look bad, but if that's your piece of cake than great. I'm pretty sure that if you live in a region where your power is mostly coal and you're comparing your EV to a high mpg gas-fueled car and you gauge everything conservatively your numbers will not favor the EV. But I suppose you got something to lose?

I just hope it's not your honesty that you lose. One has to go a long ways to suggest that EVs are a bad thing. In fact, in the shortterm, they'd be a great thing simply because we wouldn't need new power generation facilities for them. That was why I linked the australian example. There're other estimates, but we could add a number of EVs to the US and not feel a power crunch for a while.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
??? I hadn't thought about day vs. night for windmill power, but I know this: The wind slows at night in most places without the land surface warmth inducing vertical motions and mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface.

Where did this better-at-night nugget come from? Is it because day time winds are too strong?


I agree with you... I always thought (and from experience) the winds die down at night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting misanthrope:


Actually, it's already been figured out and pilot programs are in the works in California and Hawaii.

Better Place battery switch stations




Cool beans! In Hawaii I can see it working really well. The infrastructure is there and it has got to be a little easier since it is an Island. Rather than diguring out how you are going to be able to drive your electric car on a 300 mile trip across very rural areas of the CONUS.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10653
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Agree 100%.

Kansas also has tons of windmills and that is also a plus for electric cars since windmills tend to work better at night!
??? I hadn't thought about day vs. night for windmill power, but I know this: The wind slows at night in most places without the land surface warmth inducing vertical motions and mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface.

Where did this better-at-night nugget come from? Is it because day time winds are too strong?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
cooler than normal temperatures in Puerto Rico so far this winter season. For example, where I live in Carolina,PR the temperature last night was 65%uFFFDF when back in 2009 for the same date was 73%uFFFDF. So the temps in Puerto Rico had been 5 or more degrees below normal for this time of the year.

here are some numbers from last night:

Adjuntas 52%uFFFDF
Aibonito 56%uFFFDF
Arecibo Observatory 60%uFFFDF
Guayama 62%uFFFDF
Gurabo 60%uFFFDF
Aguadilla ( Borinquen ) 68%uFFFDF
Caguas RG Premier Bank 61%uFFFDF
Cayey RG Premier Bank 55%uFFFDF
Fajardo RG Premier Bank 62%uFFFDF
Guaynabo ( Univision ) 62%uFFFDF
Luis Mu%uFFFDoz Marin Intl Airport 69%uFFFDF
Ponce ( Mercedita ) 64%uFFFDF
Rio Piedras 66%uFFFDF
Carolina ( Emergency Management ) 66%uFFFDF
Carolina ( Virtual Security ) 65%uFFFDF
Loiza 67%uFFFDF
Juncos 57%uFFFDF
Toa Alta 68%uFFFDF
Barranquitas 60%uFFFDF
Villalba ( Emergency Management ) 60%uFFFDF
Maricao ( Emergency Management ) 57%uFFFDF
Aguadilla 62%uFFFDF
Arecibo 66%uFFFDF
Manati ( Emergency Management ) 62%uFFFDF
Mayaguez 64%uFFFDF
Yauco 63%uFFFDF
Ponce 66%uFFFDF
Coamo ( Emergency Management ) 60%uFFFDF
Yabucoa 60%uFFFDF
Santurce ( San Juan ) 70%uFFFDF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Network News


The poor creature who is living By the grace of God just giving
He's live on network news,.. Live on network news
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129442
175. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting pottery:
I was just scanning through some news channels, and note that the ongoing talks in Mexico are getting some coverage all over the place.
BBC News has some good articles.

But no mention of this, on US news sites.
How come????


We may just go the geoengineering route & leave the UN out of it. Out govt can't decide there is a problem but it has no problem spraying stuff out of planes to block the sun.

As climate talks drag on, more ponder techno-fixes

Another "fix" that has been tested feeds photoplankton to increase their numbers. According to the the study the other day that would increase hurricanes in the subtropical latitudes.

None of these fixes do anything to keep us from turning the oceans acidic. Enjoy the seafood while you can..(if you still dare).

~I know..I'm a real ray of sunshine this morning..not. Too sick to go to the local skywarn fun day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sheesh! Macon, GA forecast:

Sunday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Monday
Sunny...windy. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Monday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 19.

Tuesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s.

Tuesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows around 20.

Wednesday
Sunny. Highs around 50.

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s.

Can't remember the last time middle GA was even forecast to hit the teens. Not even last year, with the El Nino and snow and all, hit the teens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:

...Another option if/when power packs become removable, like a cell phone battery. Sign u p at a national "Gas" Staion chain on a rental agreement with a monthly fee to always have access to a "fresh battery pack." I can switch my depleted pack for a fresh one. Of course this merely a pipe dream that will take eons to figure out.


Actually, it's already been figured out and pilot programs are in the works in California and Hawaii.

Better Place battery switch stations

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocBen:
"Smart meters are supposed to be able to time charging of cars."

The gold mine for utilities (which I support) would be to have radio-controlled outlets specifically for my car. The trade: the utility decides when to activate (slack load time) and I get a price break. Many large industrial users pay lowered rates for 'interruptable' power today.

Utilities would LOVE to have a flat useage curve. I propose to help give them one - for a discount.


FPL (Florida) gives residential customers a break if you allow them to turn off your hot water heater, A/C, and/or Pool Pumps via a remotely activated switch. They can't turn it off for more than 15 minutes in an hour, IIRC. I haven't noticed a problem in the 11 years I have had it - so whatever it is can't be all that bad.

For electric cars, why can't my solar array charge a "battery pack" while I am at work, then when I come home I switch it out. The PV array can charge the batteries and when done throw the extra power into the house or grid.

Another option if/when power packs become removable, like a cell phone battery. Sign u p at a national "Gas" Staion chain on a rental agreement with a monthly fee to always have access to a "fresh battery pack." I can switch my depleted pack for a fresh one. Of course this merely a pipe dream that will take eons to figure out. That is the only way I could see owning a battery only car as a primary vehicle.

BTW, how many pounds of CO2 does my Diesel F350, long bed, Crew Cab, 4x4 emit? (I get 18mpg+ and it is a clean diesel with DPF and DEF)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10653
171. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:

shiver ;-)

The cold's coming to southern Florida, too, though not quite as deep as the Panhandle, of course:

Naples, FL. forecast....

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 65. North wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind around 11 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 60. North wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Tuesday night looks like the worst of it for now, and things look much better by next weekend, with highs around 80 and lows near 60. IOW, perfect...


Hard to keep cool weather in down there, although Tampa calling for upper 20's Tuesday night...inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mobile NWS Log Term Discussion


LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS FINALLY
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
FCST AREA AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS THICKNESSES LOWER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
(GFS...GEM...ECMWF) ARE SIMILAR IN THIS SCENARIO. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT RINGING OUT MUCH IF ANY PCPN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
UPPER SYSTEM AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY IN ADVANCE...BUT THERE
IS SOME INDICATED OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY JUST BE REFLECTED IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT PCPN...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW WE
HAVE LEFT ANY PCPN CHANCES OUT OF THE FCST. DRIER AND STILL COOL
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MODERATING
TO A RANGE OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 12/DS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
168. IKE
From Tampa discussion.....

CLIMATE...
ON A SIDE NOTE...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN LA NINA WHICH TENDS TO
BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM DURING
THE WINTER MONTHS THE PRESENT COOL SPELL WE ARE IN CAN LIKELY BE
TIED TO THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO). THE AO WENT INTO A HIGHLY
NEGATIVE PHASE BACK AROUND NOVEMBER 20TH AND BOTTOMED OUT AROUND
THE 27TH. IT HAS SINCE RECOVERED BACK TO AROUND NEUTRAL...BUT AS
IS GENERALLY THE CASE DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS THERE
IS ABOUT A 10 TO 14 DAY LAG BEFORE THE EFFECTS OF THE AO ARE FELT
HERE IN FLORIDA. THEREFORE...WHEN THE AO GOES HIGHLY NEGATIVE WE
TEND TO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITHIN ABOUT TWO WEEKS OR
SO AND WHEN IT GOES HIGHLY POSITIVE WE SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO BASED ON THIS THEORY WE SHOULD SEE CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER...BUT IF
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE CORRECT THE AO IS EXPECTED TO GO HIGHLY
NEGATIVE AGAIN IN ABOUT A WEEK OR SO WHICH WOULD BRING MORE COOL
WEATHER THE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS.
TIME WILL TELL...BUT EITHER WAY
IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS COOL PATTERN FOR ANOTHER
WEEK OR SO. MORE INFORMATION AND GRAPHICS ABOUT THE AO CAN BE
FOUND ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE LISTED BELOW:

HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/DAILY_AO_INDEX/AO.SHTML

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


si pero no lo causamos los humanos

Me entristece ver que la negación de la verdad existe en muchos idiomas. ;-)


I don't speak spanish but I'll take a stab at the translation.

"Humans are a lost cause."

and

"The negotiators are a bunch of idiots."


My attempting to translate from spanish must be what it feels like for illiterates.
Not a good feeling.

Was I anywhere near correct?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. IKE
I see what Bastardu is talking about....I see the next blast of cold-air, after this one, invading the SE USA in about 8-9 days according to the latest GFS. GFS has been flip-flopping on the moisture available with that feature, along the gulf coast.

Looks like this first shot will have a chance at coming close on record lows in the SE USA.

Make sure you have chap stick...Curel and a jacket. Should make for good hair days though:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Crestview,FL. forecast....

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 26.

shiver ;-)

The cold's coming to southern Florida, too, though not quite as deep as the Panhandle, of course:

Naples, FL. forecast....

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 65. North wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind around 11 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 60. North wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Tuesday night looks like the worst of it for now, and things look much better by next weekend, with highs around 80 and lows near 60. IOW, perfect...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JB this morning.


SATURDAY MORNING.
If you can look at my euro site..some interesting posts there including a clarification from NSIDC on how their site works, and I think there is no reason for me to any longer raise questions on it, even though it seems lower than others ( it will make the ice recovery even more impressive a forecast.. ha ha) and a post on an article appearing in the UK on how global warming may be causing the severe cold.

Alice in Wonderland Weather continues in the AGW camp.

Winter Wonderland is evolving for the states. The magnitude of the block that is developing over the north atlantic is such that this is as good a pattern for having a winter run up for Christmas as last year. Whether this is in the genre of the 1916-1917, 1917-1918 "La Freaka" as I called them.. Cold winters with a strong La Nina and a way below normal 1917 hurricane season.. perhaps having something to do with the major Alaska volcano a few years before, well that is entering my mind. I believe when this La Nina comes off, there is going to be some real you know what to pay, and the theory on my part is that the natural forcing of the strong La Nina, and the westerly QBO will have its way and flip the pattern. But when. The euro weeklies really but a brrrrr in my blazing saddle Thursday night, insisting on this through the New Year.

One thing that is lacking is the southern branch. However the clipper today is a "mini example" of what can happen here, a northern branch feature diving in. Shorten the wavelengths and you have yourself a monster storm on the east coast. Trying to pick out when is a problem, but until then smaller storms diving into the pattern assure the nation of a corridor of cold from northwest to southeast with snow trying to get its foot hold because of that corridor.

Looking at the Euro day 11-15 ensembles vs the GFS ensembles, the same problem that I pointed on Tuesday for day 15 ( now day 11 with the monster trough on the east coast) appears to be going on with the euro quite bit colder looking over the nation than the GFS which keeps trying to shove warmups into the northern plains. This time I walloped it, as there is now a major trough forecasted on the east coast around the 15th instead of the flatter look the model had when this battle started. I am still soar from its mid November western trough victory, but next time it tries to actually send the trough into the western US, rather than simply keeping it further north and flatten the flow, then I will be ready. But for now, its error pattern looks more like what we saw with its early November bust.

In any case, it is making for plenty of interesting weather for a large part of the nation.

By the way, the short wave that is going to be tailing southeast toward the gulf early next week, may put snow down all the way to the I-20 corridor between Dallas and Jackson. At this time I dont think the holy grails of southern snows, Houston and New Orleans will see it but it may get darn close.

ciao for now ****

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JRRP:

si pero no lo causamos los humanos

Me entristece ver que la negación de la verdad existe en muchos idiomas. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
162. IKE
Crestview,FL. forecast....

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 53. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 26.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

morning everyone first night below freezing and heavy frost. there goes the plants. have a great day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Early Morning,

First winter event for my area in NC expected tonight. Got a post up in preparation for this event, but we're not expecting much here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was just scanning through some news channels, and note that the ongoing talks in Mexico are getting some coverage all over the place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
157. xcool
hmm heyy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
I was just scanning through some news channels, and note that the ongoing talks in Mexico are getting some coverage all over the place.
BBC News has some good articles.

But no mention of this, on US news sites.
How come????


Actually, I've seen a couple articles about it on one of our local news websites.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
I was just scanning through some news channels, and note that the ongoing talks in Mexico are getting some coverage all over the place.
BBC News has some good articles.

But no mention of this, on US news sites.
How come????
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24799
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
If man could have sex with the internal combustion engine he would! :)


lol
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21231
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Pot, I was just being facetious. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Cause I know that no matter what some bloggers say about conservation, in the morning they are itching to hop on their dune buggy or their jetski or fire up that chainsaw or leafblower. It's the American addiction, smelling that petrol.

Oh, OK.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24799
148. JRRP
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


But as Levi said, "Of course global warming will be blamed for record Atlantic SSTs".

si pero no lo causamos los humanos
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


link below is now working
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665

Viewing: 196 - 146

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast