Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

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November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

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421. gaweatherboi
7:19 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Millen, GA
Mostly Cloudy

79 °F
(26 °C)
Humidity: 79 %
Wind Speed: SE 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.98"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 82 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

-Getting warmer and the sun is out with a heat index lol...I smell severe weather!!!
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
417. tornadodude
7:13 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
VortexChasers.com

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
415. PensacolaDoug
7:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The fronts already in Pcola?? THought it was still back in MS



It's here. So is the rain.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
414. tornadodude
7:11 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


definitely going through, winds from the NW now
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
413. PensacolaDoug
7:10 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
412. VAbeachhurricanes
7:10 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Now thats a cold front! Temp has dropped 18 degrees in 1/2 hour!


I was just guessing.. I should look at the log...


The fronts already in Pcola?? THought it was still back in MS
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411. sunlinepr
7:09 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9706
410. VAbeachhurricanes
7:07 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
409. PensacolaDoug
7:06 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Now thats a cold front! Temp has dropped 18 degrees in 1/2 hour!


I was just guessing.. I should look at the log...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
408. tornadodude
7:06 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
P-Doug's temp has now dropped to 56 now a 20 degree drop in the last 15 minutes!


thats pretty significant
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
406. VAbeachhurricanes
7:05 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Tornado Warning Terminated, No imminent threats at this momemnt
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405. tornadodude
7:03 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, when the storms are already moving at 50KTs its hard to have a twister that is EF1 or 0


yup, and with the jet the way it is, just unlikely to get weak tornadoes
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
404. VAbeachhurricanes
7:03 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


I think these cells out ahead are mini-supercells. there were several of these that formed yesterday before all the action started.

btw, the Yazoo City tornado was rated an EF2


Yeah, when the storms are already moving at 50KTs its hard to have a twister that is EF1 or 0
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
403. tornadodude
7:02 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No its still buildng, dont let the pixels confuse ya, itll be another 30 minutes at least before it has a chance to spawn a twister. Its been looking better and better, the closer it gets to the warm front, the more shear, then we could possibly see it do something


agreed, I said something similar to that in an earlier post, great minds think alike.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
402. VAbeachhurricanes
6:59 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


that cell doesnt even have a warning right now, kinda odd, but the velocity didnt show any rotation. Definitely worth watching


No its still buildng, dont let the pixels confuse ya, itll be another 30 minutes at least before it has a chance to spawn a twister. Its been looking better and better, the closer it gets to the warm front, the more shear, then we could possibly see it do something
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
401. tornadodude
6:59 PM GMT on November 30, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


looking a lot healthier


I think these cells out ahead are mini-supercells. there were several of these that formed yesterday before all the action started.

btw, the Yazoo City tornado was rated an EF2
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9706
Quoting Jeff9641:


Man you see that hook echo! There has to be a tornado forming right now with that cell.


that cell doesnt even have a warning right now, kinda odd, but the velocity didnt show any rotation. Definitely worth watching
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


looking a lot healthier
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Tdude, how often are outlooks issued?


every few hours, the newest one will be out in an hour I think

link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Weather is Beautiful, here in Rincon PR...

Now in Yahoo: America's 10 Best Winter Beach Retreats
White sand and warm waters
Rincon, Puerto Rico
Average highs of 84/83 in December/January
(Average water temperatures of 80/77)
Link

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9706
Tdude, how often are outlooks issued?
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Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Its really not thatttt well organized, its gotta shapen up a lil before it can drop one down


no its not, but I figure if I say a tornado is eminent then people would be more likely to heed the warning :pp

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
looks like the circulation redeveloped to the NE



Its really not thatttt well organized, its gotta shapen up a lil before it can drop one down
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
looks like the circulation redeveloped to the NE

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
BTW there are a few storms off Pensacola getting ready to come in


I'm hip.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah, winds are gusting to 40 here... from the south the temperature has risen quickly, SPC looking fom possible EF2 or greater twisters in that 10% area


yep, could get ugly..

possible tornado south of Troy. Warning for Pike and Bullock counties in Alabama:

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


if they do, you could be in for a rough one.

Im looking for storms to begin to develop out that way in about an hour, should issue a mesoscale discussion soon


yeah, winds are gusting to 40 here... from the south the temperature has risen quickly, SPC looking fom possible EF2 or greater twisters in that 10% area
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
right on que



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN GA...WRN SC...WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...

VALID 301817Z - 302015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 758 CONTINUES.

CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 758 WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z.

SURFACE WEDGE FRONT OVER NORTHERN GA/WESTERN CAROLINAS IS SLOWLY
RETREATING INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL QLCS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN GA
AND SOUTHEAST AL...AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
MESOCYCLONES AND ASSOCIATED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL MAINTAIN THAT RISK AS STORMS SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN GA/WESTERN SC...WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR. WW 758 EXPIRES AT
20Z...AND NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BEFORE THAT TIME TO EXTEND
RISK EASTWARD.

..HART.. 11/30/2010


ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 34838377 35838239 36048095 35498039 34578102 33038228
32028350 31958503 32798536 33988443 34838377

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
From my home office I have a clear view to the NW. Getting VERY dark there now. Gonna dump in just a few. Line is moving slowly east while the individual cells are hauling ass to the NE. My rain gauge is gonna get a workout!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Millen, GA
Overcast

75 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 89 %
Wind Speed: S 6 MPH
Barometer: 30.01"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Im watching that, hopefully they don't shift that to the west anymore


if they do, you could be in for a rough one.

Im looking for storms to begin to develop out that way in about an hour, should issue a mesoscale discussion soon
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
Good afternoon everyone

looks like North Carolina is under the gun today for tornadoes



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES...

...CNTRL GULF STATES EWD TO THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD OVER THE SERN STATES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
/I.E. 100-200 M PER 12-HR/ WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM EWD WITH
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WRN OH SWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL AL AS OF 15Z
WILL CONCURRENTLY PROGRESS EWD WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NY SWD THROUGH ERN VA...THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE NRN OR
CNTRL FL PENINSULA BY 01/12Z. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED BY AFTERNOON OVER NRN GA PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NERN AL/NWRN GA SWWD INTO FAR SERN LA ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT. SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF ONGOING COLD
FRONTAL ACTIVITY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A FLUX OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR /I.E. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR AND SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED NWD
DEVELOPMENT OF WEDGE FRONT E OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...12Z BMX
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE
OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG
AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TODAY FROM THE NERN GULF COAST NEWD
THROUGH MUCH OF GA INTO SC WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

LATEST CONVECTION-RESOLVING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE MAINTAINED THOUGH THE DAY
WITH ADDITIONAL BAND/S/ OF TSTMS FORMING DOWNSTREAM IN EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR WHERE CORRIDORS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ENHANCED.
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/
WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A
FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AS COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHIFT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS ALONG FRONT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WITH PERHAPS ONE DOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF TSTMS
FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN.

..MEAD/GARNER.. 11/30/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1739Z (12:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


Im watching that, hopefully they don't shift that to the west anymore
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6127
Tornado Warning


Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ALC011-109-301900-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0085.101130T1816Z-101130T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 1214 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR GOSHEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TROY AND TROY UNIVERSITY AROUND 1230 PM CST.
TROY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AROUND 1235 PM CST.
LINWOOD AROUND 1245 PM CST.
BEANS CROSSROADS AROUND 1255 PM CST.
INVERNESS AROUND 100 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE MOSSY
GROVE...SANDFIELD AND HIGH RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&


LAT...LON 3164 8617 3167 8615 3180 8616 3198 8603
3198 8600 3203 8600 3223 8586 3204 8556
3162 8601 3162 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 217DEG 34KT 3170 8608

$$

12/SIRMON








Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
one of yesterday's tornadoes caught on tape by storm chaser, Scott Peake

link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
we have completed the update of the blog page to a full winter weather page with severe section with and added feature for season european winter weather section
as we come to the end of 2010 atlantic hurricane season nov 30 7pm TWO the full tropical section will be removed and return to the page starting on april 15,2011 thanks for all who visited the tropical page over the summer and i hope to see you return next season.

seasons greetings best wishes in 2011

...KOTG
Link
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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