Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, I absolutely refuse to talk about snow before Dec 1.... lol


I told my wife she couldn't decorate for Christmas before Dec1st. She didn't listen at all. We already got our tree up and our home looks like a store display!


And think SNOW for Florida!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
469. DDR
16.5 inches of rain for the month of November(Trinidad)
With these La nina conditions prevailing another foot of rain is very likely by jan 1st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, I absolutely refuse to talk about snow before Dec 1.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon everybody. I notice we've been having AOIs across the area from about 80 - 120 east, but nothing's really popping so far. That suggests that once conditions get a bit more ideal, we may be seeing a fair amount of action in the S hemisphere.

Has anyone seen a season forecast for any of the three main areas down under [SIndian, Australia, S Pacific]?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its a steamy 70 hear in Raleigh, NC. I love cold weather here because I rarely get to see snow.

The good part for me is I am moving to SE Michigan this summer, so I'll be gettin used to snow and cold weather. I hope I can handle it (doesn't get ridiculous, temps in the teens for me is ridiculous because I have lived in NC all my life, and don't see temps in the teens)


I'm jealous! Have fun up there in Michigan. I know exactly how you feel about not getting much snow. I grew up in Wilmington! Whenever it snows there people panick like it's an alien invasion! LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bassis:


They just put us under a watch here in Concord


Won't be long b4 we have one here (Triangle) too. Stay safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SuperYooper:


It's not all it cracks up to be. I'm in Michigan. Lake effect snow can, and has, lasted for months at a time. If you are next to the big lake like I am, it means you don't get any sunlight. 185 inches of snow is really novel the first or second year you are in it but then gets old. Fast.


Well, I suppose 185 inches would be a bit much. I went to Navy Boot Camp in Chicago from Feb 1 through Apr 15 back in 2000 and LOVED the cold weather. We only got a couple of good snows, but AHHH, that crisp, arctic air was so nice!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Haha, good luck with that, man. You may be in for a not-so-pleasant surprise. I moved to NC to get away from that kind of stuff. Meanwhile, let's hope the naders don't hit us tonight.


They just put us under a watch here in Concord
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its a steamy 70 hear in Raleigh, NC. I love cold weather here because I rarely get to see snow.

The good part for me is I am moving to SE Michigan this summer, so I'll be gettin used to snow and cold weather. I hope I can handle it (doesn't get ridiculous, temps in the teens for me is ridiculous because I have lived in NC all my life, and don't see temps in the teens)


Hate to say this but some day you'll say "It's in the teens and this is warm"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Area Forecast Discussion
This National Weather Service product is intended to provide a well-reasoned discussion of the meteorological thinking which went into the preparation of the Zone Forecast Product. The forecaster will try to focus on the most particular challenges of the forecast. The text will be written in plain language or in proper contractions. At the end of the discussion, there will be a list of all advisories, non-convective watches, and non-convective warnings. The term non-convective refers to weather that is not caused by thunderstorms. An intermediate Area Forecast Discussion will be issued when either significant forecast updates are being made or if interesting weather is expected to occur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

THE BIG QUESTION ABOUT A WINTER EVENT OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS ON
THE TABLE. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY...WITH
THE 00Z RUN PRODUCING NEAR RECORD SNOWS OVER NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY...AND THE NEW 12Z RUN GIVING US A DUSTING. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS TAKES THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY FARTHER NORTH...WITH ANY WINTER
PRECIP LIKELY REMAINING IN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH
THE SOLUTION IT GAVE YESTERDAY...AND GIVES ME A MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THE GFS OVER THE ERRATIC ECMWF.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUICKLY AFTER
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMBERS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACKS OF THE
SYSTEM ARE QUITE DIVERGENT AND ONLY TWO MEMBERS OF THE 12 WE SEE
IN OUR SOFTWARE FORECAST ANY SNOW OVER TEXAS. THIS IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS SO THE CONSENSUS IS THAT NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.

IS WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK--YES. IS IT PROBABLE--NOT
YET. WHAT REMAINS PROBABLE/EXPECTED IS A COOL DOWN...A MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/THE OPERATIONAL GFS/AND THE ECMWF ALL FORECAST
COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THIS TREND IS IN OUR FORECAST...BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY YES TO A WINTER EVENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its a steamy 70 hear in Raleigh, NC. I love cold weather here because I rarely get to see snow.

The good part for me is I am moving to SE Michigan this summer, so I'll be gettin used to snow and cold weather. I hope I can handle it (doesn't get ridiculous, temps in the teens for me is ridiculous because I have lived in NC all my life, and don't see temps in the teens)


Haha, good luck with that, man. You may be in for a not-so-pleasant surprise. I moved to NC to get away from that kind of stuff. Meanwhile, let's hope the naders don't hit us tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I agree completely, love it when it gets cold.


Its a steamy 70 hear in Raleigh, NC. I love cold weather here because I rarely get to see snow.

The good part for me is I am moving to SE Michigan this summer, so I'll be gettin used to snow and cold weather. I hope I can handle it (doesn't get ridiculous, temps in the teens for me is ridiculous because I have lived in NC all my life, and don't see temps in the teens)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
457. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20102011
22:00 PM Réunion November 30 2010
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02R (998 hPa) located at 13.5S 85.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/12H

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
350 NM from the center in the southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.9S 85.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.3S 86.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 15.7S 89.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.2S 93.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Last satellite imagery shows that system intensity is stationary with convection remaining confined in the western part. At night time, it is very difficult to localize the center that was very exposed during the day time. Latest available microwave imagery (TRMM 1611z] suggest a slow movement southward.

The system should remain in a low steering flow during the next 12-24 hours and most guidance suggest a southeastward drift. Beyond, the system should be caught within a westerly steering flow south of the low to mid level equatorial ridge and north of an upper to mid-level mid-latitude trough. Consequently, it should accelerate on an east southeastward track.

The intensity forecast is not changed still show a 24-36 hour window for intensification as the system should be under decreasing shear. Then, northwesterly shear should build back under the southern edge of upper level ridge. This wind shear might very temporarily improve divergence poleward, but beyond weaken very rapidly the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting natrwalkn:


I've been reading your posts about how much you love hot weather and dread the coming brutally cold Florida winter. LOL! :D Amazing how people can have such different weather preferences. I think NC is WAY too hot and would love to be in Michigan or western NY getting blasted by lake-effect snow!! BTW, I'm glad when June 21st gets here because then the days begin getting shorter and we start heading back toward Fall!
I agree completely, love it when it gets cold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
455. xcool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING A
VERY BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN BEHIND
THE FRONT EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO FALL. THERE WAS A REPORT OF SOME LIGHT SLEET BEFORE THE RAIN
ENDED IN VERNON PARISH AS SOME DRIER AIR MIXED IN ALLOWING FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
454. xcool


12z CMC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 410 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 1 MILE
SOUTH OF LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
451. unf97
The NWS mets in Birmingham, AL are being very skeptical and conservative regarding wintry precip for the time being in their long range forecast. However, they are definitely jumping onboard the arctic air moving south into the region next week.



THE NEXT BIG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING
ANY KIND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. PER THE LATEST
LONG RANGE MODEL DATA...MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LONG
GONE BEFORE THE REAL COLD AIR BEGINS TO SPILL IN.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK IS THAT A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE. SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF EACH SYSTEM...THERE COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME WINTER
PRECIPITATION. HAVING SAID THAT...THIS IS A LONG...LONG WAY AWAY
AND ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
EASTERN SPALDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 445 PM EST

* AT 401 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOCUST GROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JENKINSBURG AND JACKSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF A TORNADO...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting Dakster:
That's some really neat snow sculptures.


Up close and personal they are even better. Imagine individual links for chains. Saw a snowman back in the 90's that was 3 stories tall. Windows (clear) made of ice. Just awesome stuff. All made by drinking engineers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Man, I'm crying with so much laughing watching Naked Gun...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
That's some really neat snow sculptures.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9765
Quoting geepy86:
185 inches of snow. Just think of the size of the snowmen you could build.


Hey Geep, we don't even have the most in the UP. MTU up in Houghton regularly has more than we do. Winter Carnival (google it, it is pretty cool to see) showcases a bunch of engineers making snow sculptures. Here is one from last year.



They do this in February each year. Amazing to just walk around the campus during that time. Even better to feel your toes again after walking around all day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
185 inches of snow. Just think of the size of the snowmen you could build.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting natrwalkn:


I've been reading your posts about how much you love hot weather and dread the coming brutally cold Florida winter. LOL! :D Amazing how people can have such different weather preferences. I think NC is WAY too hot and would love to be in Michigan or western NY getting blasted by lake-effect snow!! BTW, I'm glad when June 21st gets here because then the days begin getting shorter and we start heading back toward Fall!


It's not all it cracks up to be. I'm in Michigan. Lake effect snow can, and has, lasted for months at a time. If you are next to the big lake like I am, it means you don't get any sunlight. 185 inches of snow is really novel the first or second year you are in it but then gets old. Fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
441. Jax82
I can handle this forecast for Jax :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Naked Gun is just starting in Comedy Central Channel (local cable)...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
439. eddye
for south fla
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
438. eddye
jeff 9641 so the models are showing colder weather for florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
Bone dry in November Jeff, round these parts. 23% of normal in PBC.




Year to date = - 7.92"

Rainy Season = - 9.21"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GULF COAST NEWD
INTO THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

.CHANGE TO PREV FORECAST...

1. ADJUST SEVERE AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISKS ALONG/E OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES/SRN
APPALACHIANS.

19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM KNOXVILLE TN TO ATLANTA THEN
SWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. SEVERE AND THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL
END WITH FRONT PASSAGE AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REST OF
GA...THE CAROLINAS AND VA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..RACY/MEAD/GARNER.. 11/30/2010
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5707
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey bud, yesterday Brevard County picked up 1.50" to 3.5" of rain did you get any of that? Brevard County is way above average for rain this month.


Not really however, we did get some rain in spits off and on all day. Not enough to overtake the evaporation from the high winds though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile a few hundred miles south of PD:


This state aint big nuff fer the two of us.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Quoting Neapolitan:
Meanwhile a few hundred miles south of PD:

Clear
92.3 °F
Humidity: 40%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 4.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 9.7 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 4.50 out of 12
Clouds:
Clear -
Elevation: 15 ft

Ahhh...


I've been reading your posts about how much you love hot weather and dread the coming brutally cold Florida winter. LOL! :D Amazing how people can have such different weather preferences. I think NC is WAY too hot and would love to be in Michigan or western NY getting blasted by lake-effect snow!! BTW, I'm glad when June 21st gets here because then the days begin getting shorter and we start heading back toward Fall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile a few hundred miles south of PD:

Clear
92.3 °F
Humidity: 40%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 4.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 9.7 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 94 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 4.50 out of 12
Clouds:
Clear -
Elevation: 15 ft

Ahhh...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Winter, Sheesh. Dipping down into the 40's for Jupiter, FL Friday night, BRRRR.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

FLZ037-011000-
/O.EXB.KJAX.FZ.A.0020.101202T0900Z-101202T1300Z/
PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PALATKA
125 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO SOME OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...INCLUDING PALATKA WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER 30S WITH 2 TO 3 HOURS BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Muggy and raining here in Greensboro, NC. Looking out for severe weather/high winds later this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MD 2100 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301915Z - 302115Z

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/
EASTERN GA...AND IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SC.
DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NEED
FOR A WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS NOW
OVER EASTERN GA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S F...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S F. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR OBSERVED SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE
AIR MASS IS UNCAPPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN SC.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN 12Z NAM AND 4KM NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THIS AREA FOR THE NEED FOR A WW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Millen, GA
Mostly Cloudy

79 °F
(26 °C)
Humidity: 79 %
Wind Speed: SE 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.98"
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 82 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

-Getting warmer and the sun is out with a heat index lol...I smell severe weather!!!
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.