Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

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November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
NEXT NAMING LIST. *Names in bold are new names*
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don (Replacing Dennis)
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Jose
Katia (Replacing Katrina)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (Replacing Rita)
Sean (Replacing Stan)
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (Replacing Wilma)


What I find particularly, er, amusing about the replacement names is that "Rina" is merely a variation of "Katrina", while "Katia" is a variation of "Katie", which is itself a short form of "Katherine"--of which "Katrina" is a variant form.

I guess unique female 'K' names are hard to come by, huh? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Interesting Skye.
I especially like, "Don't argue or you can go home!"
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Quoting Chicklit:


My rain barrel system is ready!! FLKeys
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517. Skyepony (Mod)
Landslides in Trinidad & Tobago today..

Residents of Davidson’s Drive off La Puerta Road in Diego Martin, yesterday said they are worried they may soon be cut off from the rest of the country if a partially collapsed roadway continues to deteriorate. The road began crumbling approximately two weeks ago, due to soil erosion but a second section collapsed Sunday afternoon, following three days of heavy rain. At the time, councillors from the Diego Martin Regional Corporation were inspecting the area to assess the needs of residents whose homes were damaged by landslides and landslips. Councillor for Bagatelle/ Blue Basin, Lisa Maharaj said: “It was horrifying to know we had just passed on that road before it collapsed.” The unstable roadway has forced some residents to park their vehicles along La Puerta Road and walk up the winding hill to their homes. Others, whose cars were parked at home, must now travel to and from their homes. Councillor for Goodwood/ La Puerta, Ricardo Garcia, told Newsday that funds have already been approved for a Self Help project, in which residents would use metal baskets, filled with stones, to brace and strengthen the river bank to prevent further erosion. While the road is slowly crumbling away, residents said a more urgent concern is the lack of pipe-borne water. Several Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) pipes have been damaged by landslides. In order to stop the dozens of leaks that followed the landslides over the weekend, WASA turned off the water supply to the area.

The councillor said he is also very concerned about regular flooding in Goodwood Gardens opposite St Finbar’s Church on Morne Cocoa Road. “Within 15 minutes of heavy rains, Goodwood Gardens suffers four to five feet of water. We have actually timed it. You actually see the huge volume of water flowing across the road into that area because it can’t go up hill in the drain by the church,” Garcia said. He also blamed an uncleared silt trap on Broome Street for the problem. “It’s 15 feet deep but hasn’t been cleaned in so long that it’s full,” he said. Meanwhile, clean-up efforts continued yesterday in parts of Caroni Village and El Carmen, St Helena which were flooded out on the weekend. Tunapuna/ Piarco Regional Corporation (TPRC) chairman Khadijah Ameen, said she spent the day helping flood-affected residents fill out two sets of claim forms. One is for a grant from the Ministry of the People to replace household items damaged during last week’s flooding. The other is an application for funds from the Self Help Commission for supplies to repair their homes. Ameen also told Newsday plans have been drawn up to reduce future flooding in Caroni Village. “We need to rebuild part of the southern bank of the Caroni River. Secondly, a drain along the western side needs to be widened, so if the river overflows, much of that water can be carried away qucikly by the drain” Ameen said.
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Statement as of 1:25 PM EST on November 30, 2010

... Freeze watch remains in effect from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning...
Strong cold air advection on Wednesday behind a cold front will bring below freezing temperatures to much of the interior sections of the forecast area. Minimum temperatures across inland southeast Georgia and Suwannee River valley of northeast Florida
will bottom out in the upper 20s with 4 to 6 hours below freezing.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible for at least 2 hours. Precautions may be required to protect plants...pets... pipes and those sensitive to the cold if a freeze warning is issued.

a record high low in Daytona yesterday of 71 degrees (previous record was 70 in 1980-something).
Now freeze warning tonight just north of there.
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515. Skyepony (Mod)
Another part of the world-famous ancient Roman city of Pompeii in southern Italy has collapsed, archaeological officials at the site told Adnkronos on Tuesday. Following days of heavy rains, a section of a wall belonging to the House of the Moralist gave way, Adnkronos learned. The building is close one of the most archaeologically important houses in Pompeii, the 2,000-year-old House of the Gladiators, whose collapse on 6 November shocked the world and drew calls for Italy's culture minister Sandro Bondi to resign. He has remained in his post and denies accusations that he has neglected the world-heritage site. The House of the Moralist, also known as the House of M. Epidius Hymenaeus, lies on on one Pompeii's main streets, the Via dell'Abbondanza, and consists of two connecting properties belonging to two related wine-merchants, T. Arrius Polites and M. Epidius Hymenaeus. The house derives its name from three rules of etiquette inscribed on black panels in the triclinium, or dining-room: "Keep your feet clean and don't dirty the linen"; "Have respect for other men's wives"; and "Don't argue, or you can go home." The triclinium is one of the house's better preserved rooms. The wall that collapsed was in the building's garden and did not contain frescos, Naples daily Il Mattino reported. Pompeii's director of excavations Antonio Varone and a team of technical experts were assessing the damage to the wall and neaby stuccos. It was not immediately clear if the wall had stood since ancient Romans or had been reconstructed when Pompeii was excavated, the paper said.
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Quoting scott39:
Did you get any earlier this year?


Actually yes. February 12 was the last snowfall event for my area. We actually had three snow events during the winter of 2009-2010. And, while this year's winter promises not to be a particularly severe one for us, I'm still hoping that this possible snowstorm pans out.

You're in Mobile, though, right? Hate to break it to you, but uh... good luck with seeing any appreciable snowfall there. :/
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll take a good 4-6 inches. :D
Did you get any earlier this year?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't forget. The start of the TROPICAL SEASON is only 6 months away!


It'll be here in the blink of an eye. Enjoy the quiet while you can.
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Are there any models being run for that SW Caribbean disturbance?


No.
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Quoting scott39:
A dusting would be nice. It was fun when we got some the first of this year. Had enough to make a snowman :)


I'll take a good 4-6 inches. :D
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Let it snow! :D
A dusting would be nice. It was fun when we got some the first of this year. Had enough to make a snowman :)
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Quoting scott39:
Accuweather says periods of snow and rain on 12/8/10 here in lower Al. Gulf Coast. A long shot... but still hoping.


Let it snow! :D
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504. IKE
Associated Press story on the end of the tropical season...Link
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Accuweather says periods of snow and rain on 12/8/10 here in lower Al. Gulf Coast. A long shot... but still hoping.
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Quoting IKE:
TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.
.............................................

Best news I've read all day.

It's over.....

the fat lady has sung now settled in for a long winters nap
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting IKE:
TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.
.............................................

Best news I've read all day.

It's over.....



But we trade one extreme for the other: hurricanes for severe weather.
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500. IKE
TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.
.............................................

Best news I've read all day.

It's over.....

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Wow.. this season was the EPAC's least active ever recorded.
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Quoting Skyepony:
I half expect the tail of the front to combine with the blob in the SW Caribbean to be atleast an invest in the EPAC.


If I'm not mistaken, should this system enter the East Pacific and ultimately develop, it would be the first December tropical cyclone in that basin since 1983.
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497. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45319
496. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20102011
4:00 AM Réunion December 1 2010
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02R (997 hPa) located at 14.2S 85.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12H

Near Gale-Force Winds
======================
350 NM from the center in the southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.9S 86.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 15.6S 87.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 17.4S 91.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.0S 95.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Last infrared satellite imagery shows that convection has built back for the last hours. The center has been located with microwave AQUA at 1919z. Convection seems to be getting closer to the low level center due to decreasing vertical wind shear (CIMSS 2100z). Consequently, Dvorak number is fixed at 2.5-. For the next 12 hours, most guidance suggest a southeast drift. Beyond, the system should be caught within a westerly steering flow south of a low to mid-level equatorial ridge and north of an upper to mid-level mid-latitude trough. Consequently, it should accelerate on an east southeast track.

Window for intensification is still expected for the next 12-24 hours, as the system should be under decreasing wind shear. Beyond, northwesterly shear should build back under the southern edge of upper level ridge. This wind shear might very temporarily improve divergence poleward, but beyond weaken very rapidly as the system moves into cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45319
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I think New England is my ideal climate, with four fairly well-balanced seasons.


Namely Cool, Cold, Snow, and Mud. :-)
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494. Skyepony (Mod)
I half expect the tail of the front to combine with the blob in the SW Caribbean to be atleast an invest in the EPAC.
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493. Skyepony (Mod)
The ITCZ is low with the end of season. Tragically, rain continues in Venezuela.

CARACAS - Thousands of Venezuelans fled their homes on Tuesday after landslides and swollen rivers killed at least 21 people and threatened to cause more damage.

The stormy weather closed most of the OPEC member nation’s two largest oil refineries on Monday. A source at state oil company PDVSA said they were slowly restarting on Tuesday...more..
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Final Tropical Weather Outlook for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 302346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Now.. we await June 1st, 2011.

NEXT NAMING LIST. *Names in bold are new names*
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don (Replacing Dennis)
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Jose
Katia (Replacing Katrina)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (Replacing Rita)
Sean (Replacing Stan)
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (Replacing Wilma)

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Quoting Patrap:
My post Gustav MRE's are out of Date come Dec 31.


But Im gonna eat the skittles anyway.



:P
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blog page has done a complete winter flip check it out see ya next tropical season for those who don't stick around for the winter

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting natrwalkn:


Well, I suppose 185 inches would be a bit much. I went to Navy Boot Camp in Chicago from Feb 1 through Apr 15 back in 2000 and LOVED the cold weather. We only got a couple of good snows, but AHHH, that crisp, arctic air was so nice!!
I know, I don't think I would ever get tired of it. What I find absolutely insufferable, are the summers here in C. Fla. Day after day, month after month of days well in the 90s, and warm muggy nights just gets really old. I think New England is my ideal climate, with four fairly well-balanced seasons.
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well first order of business for 2011 is the season outlook that comes out on dec 12th
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
My post Gustav MRE's are out of Date come Dec 31.


But Im gonna eat the skittles anyway.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Neapolitan:

No, it ain't. Tell you what: I'll kick in a few bucks if you promise to move to, say, Alaska. Or Siberia. ;-)


LOL!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting Neapolitan:
Meanwhile a few hundred miles south of PD:

Clear
92.3 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 40%
Dew Point: 64 %uFFFDF
Wind: 4.8 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 9.7 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 94 %uFFFDF
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 4.50 out of 12
Clouds:
Clear -
Elevation: 15 ft

Ahhh...


What slab of concrete did they get that temp reading from.

Sounds like the slab on the top of the parking garage at Coastland Mall.

It wasn't even close to ninety except on concrete slabs or asphalt.

Oh yeah, I know... it was taken in direct sun. Sorry for the confusion. My bad.

Actually, according to Intellicast, the high was 86 degrees. Maybe your source needs to re-calibrate their thermocouple...6 degrees is a wee bit out of range don't you think?



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and first post of dec 1 GMT
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Wow.... we have come to the very end.... except for special TWOs....

I am very happy to report that I am now opening the first can in the hurricane supply cupboard... lol
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FINAL TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2011. SHOULD THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
DEVELOP FURTHER...OR ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WOULD BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED UNDER THE SAME WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC...AND AWIPS
HEADER MIATWOAT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
THE LAST TWOAT !!

939
abnt20 knhc 302346
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 700 pm est tue nov 30 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over panama...costa rica...and the adjacent waters of the southwestern caribbean in association with a weak area of low pressure. development...if any...will be slow to occur...and there is a low chance...10 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

today marks the end of the 2010 hurricane season. issuance of this product will resume on 1 june 2011. should the current disturbance develop further...or any other significant disturbances develop during the off-season...special tropical weather outlooks would be issued as needed under the same wmo header abnt20 knhc...and awips header miatwoat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

To each their own, I suppose. I went to high school in Wyoming; I went to college in Minnesota; I've lived in Ohio, and Montana, and Colorado, and Iowa; I'm a decent snowboarder, and an event better downhill skier. So it's not that I dislike cold; it's just that I dislike cold in Florida. When it drops to, say, 25 or 30 here, there's no pretty snow-covered landscape to balance things out, there's no skiing or snowboarding, there are no snowmen, or hills full of kids on their toboggans and sleds, or old men ice fishing on the lake. No, none of that Burl & Ives stuff--just dead and gray grass and palm trees, and a lot of tourist dollars sitting huddled in their expensive hotel rooms. So, yeah, I've come to appreciate hot and humid, as I grew to admire bitterly cold and snowy. I just want the two parts to stay where they belong...


That's understandable. Pretty much the same way here in NC except for the mountains which usually see a fair amount of snow. Occasionally we get some here in the Piedmont, but almost never at the coast where I grew up.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Meanwhile a few hundred miles south of PD:


This state aint big nuff fer the two of us.

No, it ain't. Tell you what: I'll kick in a few bucks if you promise to move to, say, Alaska. Or Siberia. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Quoting JFLORIDA:
It was around lunch, never seen one there before. I suppose they happen.


Magnitude 3.9 - OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 15:45:59 UTC - Coordinated Universal Time
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 10:45:59 AM local time at epicenter
North America:
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 12:15:59 PM (NST) - Newfoundland Standard (St. John's)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 11:45:59 AM (AST) - Atlantic Standard (Halifax, San Juan)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 10:45:59 AM (EST) - Eastern Standard (New York, Toronto, Jamaica)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 09:45:59 AM (CST) - Central Standard (Chicago, Mexico City, Costa Rico)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 08:45:59 AM (MST) - Mountain Standard (Calgary, Denver, Phoenix, Mazatlan)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 07:45:59 AM (PST) - Pacific Standard (Vancouver, Los Angeles, Tijuana)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 06:45:59 AM (AKST) - Alaska Standard (Anchorage)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 05:45:59 AM (AHST) - Aleutian Standard (Adak)
Tuesday, November 30, 2010 at 05:45:59 AM (HST) - Hawaii Standard (Honolulu)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting natrwalkn:


I've been reading your posts about how much you love hot weather and dread the coming brutally cold Florida winter. LOL! :D Amazing how people can have such different weather preferences. I think NC is WAY too hot and would love to be in Michigan or western NY getting blasted by lake-effect snow!! BTW, I'm glad when June 21st gets here because then the days begin getting shorter and we start heading back toward Fall!

To each their own, I suppose. I went to high school in Wyoming; I went to college in Minnesota; I've lived in Ohio, and Montana, and Colorado, and Iowa; I'm a decent snowboarder, and an event better downhill skier. So it's not that I dislike cold; it's just that I dislike cold in Florida. When it drops to, say, 25 or 30 here, there's no pretty snow-covered landscape to balance things out, there's no skiing or snowboarding, there are no snowmen, or hills full of kids on their toboggans and sleds, or old men ice fishing on the lake. No, none of that Burl & Ives stuff--just dead and gray grass and palm trees, and a lot of tourist dollars sitting huddled in their expensive hotel rooms. So, yeah, I've come to appreciate hot and humid, as I grew to admire bitterly cold and snowy. I just want the two parts to stay where they belong...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Does anyone have a link to a website that explains the method by which each tropical cyclone model works? If you do, drop me a WUmail. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I told my wife she couldn't decorate for Christmas before Dec1st. She didn't listen at all. We already got our tree up and our home looks like a store display!


And think SNOW for Florida!
put up the lights in the windows this past sunday and some inside stuff i think the tree goes up on the weekend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, I absolutely refuse to talk about snow before Dec 1.... lol


I told my wife she couldn't decorate for Christmas before Dec1st. She didn't listen at all. We already got our tree up and our home looks like a store display!


And think SNOW for Florida!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.