Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

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November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

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6 weeks after the Haitian Earthquake,,Portlight was in Country and on the Job as shown here in Feb.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
What was of special note also was the lack of Pacific Activity,esp in the East-Pac this past season.


That got one entry or a mention from Jeff Masters here.

Very interesting to see such Low numbers there.


..Rock on,

James Dean.................
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Let's compare today's global SSTs to one year ago. I also have a record (just <1 yr) of daily WU SSTs allowing for comparative semi-qualitative analysis.



La Nina is clearly in progress, while areas such as the European portion of the Gulf Stream is largely cooler than 2009 due to earlier onset of snow events, and the main Gulf Stream is much cooler. Meanwhile, the central Gulf Stream/NAD from the Grand Banks of Newfoundland to West Greenland is warmer than last year, indicating high pressure situated somewhere west of Ireland (and drifting west). The Canary Current south of the Canary Islands is also warmer, as are the Kuroshio and Aghulas Currents. Notice the southern edge of the Indian Ocean being warmer than 2009, extending in a band across the Gulf of Carpentaria, through the Solomon Islands, French Polynesia and the Chile earthquake zone. This warm area continues east of Argentina, although an area of the southeastern Pacific between the longitudes of the easternmost Ross Ice Shelf and Pine Island Bay is colder, precisely the area that was very warm last year.



Compare the start of December 2010 to the same time period in 2007, another La Nina winter (2007-08, the snowiest in recent S. Ontario memory).

Depending on the AO and NAO, Arctic incursion events could occur once again over the continental interiors, especially given the jet stream locking phenomenon that has become more common in recent years. One possibility is that low solar activity is the cause, but recent climate change may also play a role (by reducing the subtropical-polar temperature gradients, mid-latitude wind speeds are reduced and extreme temperature air masses are free to move north or south to amplify strong storms).

UNPUBLISHABLE IMAGE

This is the jet stream pattern that AccuWeather expects to be in place by mid-December. Arctic vortex events could be quite common this winter due to the strong Alaskan low pressure and cold air mass area and the reduced ice cover north of that area (more rising air). However, since warmer temperatures are expected in the CONUS, this could set up strong storms.

This could be an interesting winter, but probably now more so for Canada than the US. There is a reduced likelihood for an upside-down winter. Last year, Baltimore recieved roughly 5x more snowfall than Toronto (anyone have stats?), but the Great Lakes region, US Midwest/Canadian Praries and central Mississippi River Valley should get most of the snow this year.

It is always unfair when Texas gets more snow than Ontario. Last year, one location in northern Texas recieved about 35 cm (14 in) of snow in one storm per my memory, and the heaviest snowstorm here ALL WINTER was only 20 cm. Any guesses on "heaviest snowstorm amount" for S. Ontario this year?
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Quoting Patrap:
The Mayans are chuckling..I bet,

2 years and 20 days left and counting.


OMG!!!!!!!!! Only 2 more hurricane seasons?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
The Mayans are chuckling..I bet,

2 years and 20 days left and counting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Just because we don't get hit one year, doesnt mean the odds increase that we get hit the next year. Transitioning to el nino I see 12 storms


Unlikely 2011 will be El Nino.. looks like it will probably be La Nina.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
Quoting Jedkins01:


56 and windy up here in Central Florida right now, we started the morning at 64, and the temp has slowly fallen throughout the the day. The Florida sun was no use today against the power of old man winter!
we had a 23' drop yesterday from 1-2pm. It was not pleasant. 75 to 52....we went from hot and disgustingly humid with the AC on to dry out the house to clammy and cold in the blink of an eye. (Navarre)
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West Palm Beach:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10976
isnt their the first forecast o....f the 2011 coming out today???,i thought i heard it comes out on wed
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Quoting FLdewey:


Rained solid for 20... maybe 25 seconds.


Got 0.4" here, in about 3 minutes, on the tail end of a severe tstm. Not sure how it was measured, as it appeared to be traveling horizontally....
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting caneswatch:


Had the same thing happen in WPB today. At 12, it was 80 and humid. At 1, 70, overcast, and windy.


56 and windy up here in Central Florida right now, we started the morning at 64, and the temp has slowly fallen throughout the the day. The Florida sun was no use today against the power of old man winter!
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Mm.. if I had to guess 2011 given the upcoming conditions.

16-18 named storms
8-12 hurricanes
3-5 majors.

Probably not an accurate prediction but its a guess.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Why yes I do!


Had the same thing happen in WPB today. At 12, it was 80 and humid. At 1, 70, overcast, and windy.
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Quoting caneswatch:
P-ColaDoug, remember that extreme temperature drop you had yesterday?


Why yes I do!
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Quoting jrweatherman:

Sorry but just as I was to "quote" HurricaneDean07 the boss snuck up from behind and saw the forecast as I was trying to hit the quote. The boss went into panic mode and asked if that was the offical 2011 forecast. He turn around and departed mumbling about transfering back to New Mexico. I guess I will find out tomorrow what he wanted.
Note: 2004 was his first experience with hurricanes.
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I'm surprised that the downcasters haven't already given their opinion on your forecast. Having said that, after this past year I am staying away from any forecast of landfalls. The bad news is that the odds are the US will get hit. How many? No one knows.


Just because we don't get hit one year, doesnt mean the odds increase that we get hit the next year. Transitioning to el nino I see 12 storms
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Quoting jrweatherman:


I'm surprised that the downcasters haven't already given their opinion on your forecast. Having said that, after this past year I am staying away from any forecast of landfalls. The bad news is that the odds are the US will get hit. How many? No one knows.


Your saying we'll have another 2005 land fall season?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
alright season is over, so time to move on to 2011.
Predictions:
16 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Us Impact:
8 Named Storm Landfalls
5 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes- Cat.3, and Cat.4


I'm surprised that the downcasters haven't already given their opinion on your forecast. Having said that, after this past year I am staying away from any forecast of landfalls. The bad news is that the odds are the US will get hit. How many? No one knows.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
If you loose everything in that storm or blizzard, then you have an option:

7 Towns Where Land is Free
By Colleen Kane , CNBC.com
Nov 17, 2010
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Is this forecast based on a neutral or el nino weather pattern?
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593 PakaSurvivor "This link is to the 26 Nov 2010 USA Today article where
'Scientists are poring over weather records from the past 250 years, long-buried in handwritten ships' logs and musty notebooks of weather observers in the USA and around the world...'
Sounds like an interesting endeavor. Did anyone else see this or am I several dollars short and many days late?
"

Nah, but the US is "several dollars short and many" years behind the Brits, who began similar historical research through ship logs and other meteorological journals circa 2000 (around the time that US scientists released their findings inre sonar mappings of Arctic sea-ice thickness made by US nuclear submarines during the ColdWar)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
alright season is over, so time to move on to 2011.
Predictions:
16 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Us Impact:
8 Named Storm Landfalls
5 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes- Cat.3, and Cat.4


Wow, 7 hurricanes hitting the US, you say? Where do you think storms will hit the most?
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597. xcool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
224 PM CST WED DEC 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT'S LOWS...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE LONGER DURATION AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IN THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. AIR MASS SHOULD MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND ONSETTING THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUATION OF
WARMING TREND AND MILDER WEATHER UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSAGE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DEVOID OF DEEPER
CONVECTION DUE TO LACK OF UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. FAST MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BRING SOME WINTRY TYPE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
BUT AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO WARM THIS FAR SOUTH TO POSE A THREAT.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOLUTION...BRINGING LIGHT
LIQUID PRECIPITION THROUGH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA
WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS DISTURBANCE MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
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alright season is over, so time to move on to 2011.
Predictions:
16 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Us Impact:
8 Named Storm Landfalls
5 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes- Cat.3, and Cat.4
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
594. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ABELE (02-20102011)
22:00 PM Réunion December 1 2010
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Abele (982 hPa) located at 16.2S 86.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12H

Storm Force Winds
===============
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
======================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center locally extending up to 120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.3S 87.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.1S 88.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 20.2S 91.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.5S 94.6E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System has rapidly intensified within the last 18 hours. ABELE shows now a METEOSAT 7 infrared channel a temporarily eye pattern.

System is expected to track southeastward undergoing the steering flow of the low to mid levels high in its north and in its east. In this forecast track, the system should keep on intensifying within the very next hours but look to be very close to its maximum of intensity. Beyond it is expected to weaken, undergoing a strengthening northwesterly wind shear in its south and marginal oceanic heat content on cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures.
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http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2010-11-26-oldweather26_ST_N.htm

This link is to the 26 Nov 2010 USA Today article where "Scientists are poring over weather records from the past 250 years, long-buried in handwritten ships' logs and musty notebooks of weather observers in the USA and around the world..."

Sounds like an interesting endevor. Did anyone else see this or am I several dollars short and many days late?
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P-ColaDoug, remember that extreme temperature drop you had yesterday?
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591. EvPv
Looking for any info regarding precip in Australia. Is the current amount in the drought area? Is there still a drought? Is the rainfall due to La Nina?

The current rainfall is pushing up wheat prices on the commodities market today.
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580 Neapolitan "...the 2011 season kicks off in just 181 days, 8 hours, and 31 minutes."

Forgot about ClimateChange. The SouthAtlantic season begins in ~48days.
(Useless to speculate about a hypothetical southern season that begins earlier than the earliest TropicalCyclone on record and ends later than the latest TropicalCyclone on record.)
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589. Skyepony (Mod)
Heavy snowfall and unusually cold weather in several countries across Europe have brought major airports, vehicular and rail transport almost to a standstill. In Eure-et-Loir, France all weather records were broken when mercury fell to minus 16.8 degrees Celsius. In some areas of the country 25 cm of snow has been recorded. It has also been reported that due to bad weather 25 thousand homes are left without electricity.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37349
SQUAWK!!!!!
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Quoting Boboffife:
Whilst you fellas are basking in 14-15degsC (Ithaca), we're having -16degsC and lower (Avimore, Scotland) and 2 or 3 feet of snow, (Northumberland, England). Very exceptional for a relatively small, maritime, island at these latitudes. Still, it's great to have the neighbours in for a hot lunch; happened twice so far!

Cheers ...... Boboffife
Stay wamr with your cuppa. Tea is the best for warming you up. I found that out when I resided in Dunoon. Take care.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
This is one of my favorite tornado picks of the year; it was a finalist in the 2010 Energizer Ultimate Photo Contest. It's a weak but very photogenic Colorado twister taken by Zachary Caron:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Well, I like it, anyway...
It is a great shot! Look's like the one in the Wizard of Oz. :)
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AMY!!!!!
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584. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:
Devastating squall line pushing through this morning.... :-o

Rained solid for 20... maybe 25 seconds.


Trace here. If it wasn't for these prefrontal coastal sprinkles~ might be a fire here already.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37349
570. TampaTom 5:49 AM PST on December 01, 2010

Quoting greentortuloni:
Something to talk about on a slow day. Changing hurricanes through plankton.


YES! The Krabby Patty recipe will be all mine!




hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! SpongeBob makes it onto the main blog legitimately!!!!!

:)
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Hello, big cold snap here for the last few days, up to a metre of snow in places.

Going to get exceptionally cold in about 24 hours, here's the forecast for closeby by Wunderground:

Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Scattered Clouds. Low: -17 °C [1F] . Wind NNW 14 km/h . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: -11 °C [12F] .

Friday
Clear. High: 0 °C [32F]. Wind WNW 18 km/h . Windchill: -24 °C [-11F] .

(I don't buy the windchill factor on Friday, nor it getting *that* cold in general, but..)

Met Office still brings it down to roughly -10C [14F] tomorrow night.

-25C [-13F] could possibly be seen in Scotland, and it's only just December. Hopefully, it's not a trend.

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581. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting greentortuloni:
Something to talk about on a slow day. Changing hurricanes through plankton.


That was certainly interesting. Applying it to what is happening to phytoplankton during climate change (we are seeing a much less).. gives an argument to expect~ fewer overall storms but more traveling near the equator.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37349
There's less time until the start of the 2011 hurricane season than has elapsed since the beginning of the 2010 season; the 2010 season got underway 183 days, 15 hours, and 29 minutes ago, while the 2011 season kicks off in just 181 days, 8 hours, and 31 minutes.

See? Beyond Christmas, there is something to look forward to...;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Very Cool ascat!
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This is a full-length animation of the complete 2010 Hurricane Season (from June 1 through November 30) as compiled from available GOES East Hurricane Sector satellite imagery.
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That thing in the sw Carrib... Is it spinning up?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Devastating squall line pushing through this morning.... :-o



Rained solid for 20... maybe 25 seconds.



Well, you got more than I did. There was a dark cloud, but no precip. at all.
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like post 548 has messed up the blog.



I don't know what to say. I see my quote of sunline. Nothing more. I had Grill look at the blog from work, and she sees nothing more than I do. Weird.
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571. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ABELE (02-20102011)
16:00 AM Réunion December 1 2010
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Abele (988 hPa) located at 15.3S 85.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12H

Gale-Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center locally extending up to 120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.1S 87.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.9S 88.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.8S 91.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 21.4S 94.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System has rapidly intensified within the last 12 hours and has therefore been named "ABELE" by Mauritius Meteorological Services at 0900z. Microwave TRMM 0703z 85ghz reveal now a closed ring of deep convection around a warm point. ABELE keeps on intensifying and shows now a METEOSAT7 visible channel curved band patter wrapping at about .10, very close to severe tropical storm stage. System is expected to track east-southeastward undergoing the steering flow of the low to mid levels highs in its north and in its east. In this forecast track, the system should keep on intensifying within the next 12-24 hours. Beyond, it is expected to weaken, undergoing a strengthening northwesterly wind shear in its south and marginal oceanic heat content on cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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