Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 121 - 71

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

^ now has a tornado warning

TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-127-292015-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0070.101129T1930Z-101129T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 130 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NATCHEZ...GRAND ECORE...ST. MAURICE...CLARENCE...CLEAR LAKE AND
GOLDONNA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 9296 3187 9272 3160 9314 3169 9325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 222DEG 34KT 3168 9315

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
Spokane, Washington already has more snow than all of last year.

England has seen the most November snow and cold they've had in the last 17 years.

brrr
and its only just the beginning of a long cold snowy winter with many a storm
track pattern becoming better defined with each passing event
severe looks to be troublisome with a record number naders more towards early feb taken us into spring
this nader season may be particular strong as deep cold tries to push out and over take mild pattern for south under a la nina for the winter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
may need to watch this cell



2 minutes later a tornado warning was issued :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
everyone have a good day and stay safe!

Thanks.
I'm trying to.
But it's a little boring.....

Maybe when I go out to the end of the driveway to pick-up all the garbage that a band of dogs has left strewn all over the road, I may get bitten by a bug or something.
In the meantime, there is a constant drippy drizzle going on.
Dreary, man!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24121
for newton county in texas.. A tornado warning is issued..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting MTWX:

Currently WNW of Newton. Looks good on the storm relative. Link


yeah it does, tornado is pretty much eminent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC351-291945-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0009.101129T1910Z-101129T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
110 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOLEDO BEND DAM...NEWTON...BURKEVILLE...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FARRSVILLE BY 115 PM CST...
BURKEVILLE BY 120 PM CST...
MAYFLOWER BY 125 PM CST...
TOLEDO BEND DAM BY 140 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 9353 3115 9354 3112 9353 3110 9356
3107 9351 3078 9379 3084 9387 3094 9386
3098 9387 3118 9370 3118 9358 3121 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 221DEG 37KT 3092 9379

Currently WNW of Newton. Looks good on the storm relative. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC351-291945-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0009.101129T1910Z-101129T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
110 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOLEDO BEND DAM...NEWTON...BURKEVILLE...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 108 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FARRSVILLE BY 115 PM CST...
BURKEVILLE BY 120 PM CST...
MAYFLOWER BY 125 PM CST...
TOLEDO BEND DAM BY 140 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 9353 3115 9354 3112 9353 3110 9356
3107 9351 3078 9379 3084 9387 3094 9386
3098 9387 3118 9370 3118 9358 3121 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 221DEG 37KT 3092 9379
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
109. MTWX
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
One thing ive been paying very close attention to is all the "I" Name that have been retired this decade:
2000 none
2001 Iris- 145 MPH Cat.4 russian
2002 Isidore- 125 MPH Cat.3 russian
2003 Isabel- 160 MPH Cat.5 ?
2004 Ivan- 165 MPH Cat.5 russian
2005 none
2006 none
2007 none
2008 Ike- 145 MPH Cat.4 russian
2009 none
2010 Igor- 155 MPH Cat.4 russian

Weve more then half of the years this decade contain a retired I name.

Another interesting thing,
Same naming lists
2002 - Isidore ~ 2008 - Ike
2004 - Ivan ~ 2010 - Igor
both years of different naming list are only 2 years apart.
all of the names are russian.

Maybe we should quit using Russian names...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm, more of an isolated threat shaping up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing ive been paying very close attention to is all the "I" Names that have been retired this decade:
2000 none
2001 Iris- 145 MPH Cat.4 russian
2002 Isidore- 125 MPH Cat.3 russian
2003 Isabel- 160 MPH Cat.5 ?
2004 Ivan- 165 MPH Cat.5 russian
2005 none
2006 none
2007 none
2008 Ike- 145 MPH Cat.4 russian
2009 none
2010 Igor- 155 MPH Cat.4 russian

more than half of the years this decade contain a retired I name.

Another interesting thing,
Same naming lists
2002 - Isidore ~ 2008 - Ike
2004 - Ivan ~ 2010 - Igor
both years of different naming list are only 2 years apart.
all of the names are russian.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
106. MTWX
Link
Discussion.
Looks like Patrap is a little faster than me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2088

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...WRN MS...SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291902Z - 292000Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
AIR MASS. A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF LA AND SOUTHERN MS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S F.


DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SLOW DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. 18Z
LCH/SHV/LIX RAOBS ALL SHOW THAT PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS MOSTLY ELIMINATED THE CAP. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...AND ALSO RESULT IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED/ SEVERE STORMS. RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST SOME RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TO STORMS OVER WESTERN LA/EAST TX.

THIS TREND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NECESSITATING A TORNADO WATCH BY 20Z.

..HART.. 11/29/2010


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
104. beell
Temp, Dewpoint, Sfc Wind, and Pressure.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
103. MTWX
Discussion in the process of being posted... Tornado Watch Likely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
102. MTWX
Link
Visible Satellite
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
101. eddye
jeff 9641 how cold does the gfs show for florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Right now, the best surface convergence is near the Shreveport area along a pre-frontal trough and the warm front. Not much cap left. Should see something here before too long.



seems like areas just west of Shreveport have received the most heating as well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99. MTWX
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Nothing like living in the bullseye!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Spokane, Washington already has more snow than all of last year.

England has seen the most November snow and cold they've had in the last 17 years.

brrr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right now, the best surface convergence is near the Shreveport area along a pre-frontal trough and the warm front. Not much cap left. Should see something here before too long.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ralph would work. LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know that this is only a prediction but, a Rina in the GOM and Texas at 40% sure brings back 2005 for me. Lost my roof, and ultimately everything under it, to Rita.

Rina - Rita? Couldn't they have come up with a better substitute name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
everyone have a good day and stay safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
The local Chief Met here in Mobile said shear was one of the Factors leading to the instability.


yeah there is plenty of it

Quoting MTWX:

The warm front is bringing us pretty heavy rain now.. The one thing we actually need around here!


once that warm front passes, instability will be on the rise. I'd say the biggest threat for tornadoes, especially the stronger ones, will be close to the warm front
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I think a lot of it has to do with the shear and the incoming low

The warm front is bringing us pretty heavy rain now.. The one thing we actually need around here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I think a lot of it has to do with the shear and the incoming low
The local Chief Met here in Mobile said shear was one of the Factors leading to the instability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree, the steering patterns will be very different next year with La Nina diving down once again.
I think we will see many more storms affecting the US next year with the steering patterns being almost opposite of 2010.
I woul focus the landfalls on the Gulf, Florida, And Southeast Coast.

Texas 40%
Louisianna 30%
Mississippi 45%
Alabama 50%
Florida 70%
Goergia 55%
South Carolina 50%
North Carolina 30%
Virginia 15%
Northeast US <10%
Canada 10%
Bermuda 25%
Northern Caribbean Islands(Cuba, Hipanoila, Peurto Rico) 65%
Mexico 35%
Central America 30%
Out To Sea <30%

Thinking is we will get to

Arlene X
Bret X
Cindy X
Don X
Emily X
Franklin X
Gert X
Harvey X
Irene X
Jose X
Katia X
Lee X
Maria X
Nate X
Ophelia X
Phillipe X
Rina X
Sean X
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:
Temperatures are on the rise across southern MS. Hopefully Yazoo City doesnt take another direct hit! They are still trying to recover from the last one.


that would simply be ridiculous. I cant imagine having my town hit once, let a lone twice, in the same year even
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
86. MTWX
Temperatures are on the rise across southern MS. Hopefully Yazoo City doesnt take another direct hit! They are still trying to recover from the last one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
He did a better Doc Holliday than the old Doc himself!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:

This explains the low hail risk. Just waiting for the storms to start organizing, to get a better idea of what we are dealing with.


yeah I think a lot of it has to do with the shear and the incoming low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




I'm your Huckleberry.
Val Kilmer nailed this part!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
"your a Daisy if you do!"


Val Kilmer's best movie ever and his best role ever. Tombstone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
"your a Daisy if you do!"




I'm your Huckleberry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
It's great you have your dog to depend on. I'm just glad I don't live in your area. One summer I was in Memphis, Tn and I was constantly worried about tornadoes. I guess you get used to the threat, but I will take 10 hurricanes over one tornado any day!
An F-1 hit about 20 miles S of me about 2 months ago and it hit so quick that the alarms did not have time to go off. Tornadoes are scarier in that aspect...Hands Down!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
79. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:




yeah, it might damper it, however, im not sure that these storms are as dependent on surface heating.

This explains the low hail risk. Just waiting for the storms to start organizing, to get a better idea of what we are dealing with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Quoting MTWX:

Surface temps are only pushing into the upper 50's- low 60's. I see heavy rain and some high winds to be the biggest threat. I have a feeling these rains off of the warm front are going to knock the temps down a little too.


yeah, it might damper it, however, im not sure that these storms are as dependent on surface heating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
77. MTWX
Quoting kwgirl:
It must be frightening to live in a tornado area. What do you do? Do you sleep in your basement or bathtub?

Just have a good weather radio or get NOTIFY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:



could get interesting, just waiting for storms to fire up now, probably an hour or 2 out tho at least
Its only raining off and on right now, but i expect it to get bad later this evening and early in the morning for lower Al. My Inlaws live in a Mobile Home. They will be coming over later. I think I will leave and go take my chances in the DoubleWide!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
My dog wakes me up and I dive for the bathroom.
It's great you have your dog to depend on. I'm just glad I don't live in your area. One summer I was in Memphis, Tn and I was constantly worried about tornadoes. I guess you get used to the threat, but I will take 10 hurricanes over one tornado any day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
74. MTWX
Quoting tornadodude:



could get interesting, just waiting for storms to fire up now, probably an hour or 2 out tho at least

Surface temps are only pushing into the upper 50's- low 60's. I see heavy rain and some high winds to be the biggest threat. I have a feeling these rains off of the warm front are going to knock the temps down a little too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Concerned about possible tornadoes on the N Gulf Coast tonight!



could get interesting, just waiting for storms to fire up now, probably an hour or 2 out tho at least
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
It must be frightening to live in a tornado area. What do you do? Do you sleep in your basement or bathtub?
My dog wakes me up and I dive for the bathroom.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Great seasonal summary Dr. Masters!

Also nice to see people talking about weather instead of hundreds of stupid posts about movie quotes.
"your a Daisy if you do!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 121 - 71

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.