Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

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November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening everyone. Mostly just lurking these days since winter weather doesn't really affect me. Tomorrow is the official last day of hurricane season and we now have a yellow circle at 10% in the sw Caribbean. LOL

Same thing here! lol We finally have something to watch, but isn't it a little late?
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Parts of East C FL have seen excessive rain as a result of this stalled front.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
What blog had the 2010 hurricane season predictions?

I got the # of named storms right with 19
This one.

I got close with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 majors.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting beell:
Those cells MAY be moving off/over (north of) the warm front boundary and becoming elevated. Still a wind threat in any case.
Warnings expired for now.


I think any cell that develops out in front of the main storms and within the warm sector has a chance to produce a tornado
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Quoting Patrap:
URGENT Severe Weather Expected This Afternoon and Tonight


Appreciate all the imfo, Pat, gonna be a long night for all of us. If I could gather up all my family and get them into one house, I'd feel better....instead they're spread over 3 counties. Oh well......take care of you and yours...
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
URGENT Severe Weather Expected This Afternoon and Tonight
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Good evening everyone. Mostly just lurking these days since winter weather doesn't really affect me. Tomorrow is the official last day of hurricane season and we now have a yellow circle at 10% in the sw Caribbean. LOL
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Possible Tornado Damage in Louisiana

Reports from near Atlanta, La. indicate one well built brick home was completely destroyed while surrounding houses on either side sustained damage that was more minor. Numerous trees were snapped about 15 feet off the ground.

A tornado was also spotted north of Winnfield, La., crossing Highway 167.

There have been no reported fatalities or injuries as of late Monday afternoon

The severe threat will continue through tonight in the South
Member Since: September 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1231
Orleans
Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 1:59 PM CST on November 29, 2010

... Baton Rouge NOAA Weather Radio transmission interruptions...

The National Weather Service office in Slidell is aware of a
broadcast problem at the Baton Rouge NOAA Weather Radio
transmitter k h b 4 6. Technicians have been dispatched to look
into the problem and attempt to re-establish broadcasts.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. In the meantime...
you may be able to receive the broadcast from the Morgan City
transmitter... station k I h 2 3 broadcasting at a frequency of
162.475 mhz.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419

NEXRAD Radar
Brandon, Base Radial Velocity 1.45/1.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
NEXRAD Radar
Brandon, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
GOM IR Loop





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NEXRAD Radar
Brandon, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419



Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 753...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING FROM SE LA NNEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. AS THESE STORMS
SLOWLY DEEPEN WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE FOR STRENGTHENING STORM ROTATION AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE TORNADO
THREAT AREA WILL BE AS STORM INTERACT WITH THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT
IN MS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419



Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.


WOUS64 KWNS 291927
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

TORNADO WATCH 753 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC003-011-013-017-027-041-043-103-139-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0753.101129T1930Z-101130T0300Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT COLUMBIA DESHA
DREW OUACHITA UNION


LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
039-041-043-049-053-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-097-
107-111-115-119-123-127-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0753.101129T1930Z-101130T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL
CAMERON CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT
JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION
VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN


MSC001-011-015-021-051-053-055-063-083-125-133-149-151-163-
300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0753.101129T1930Z-101130T0300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BOLIVAR CARROLL
CLAIBORNE HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LEFLORE
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON YAZOO


TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0753.101129T1930Z-101130T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER


GMZ430-432-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0753.101129T1930Z-101130T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SABINE LAKE

CALCASIEU LAKE

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LZK...





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
203. beell
Those cells MAY be moving off/over (north of) the warm front boundary and becoming elevated. Still a wind threat in any case.
Warnings expired for now.
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Quoting tornadodude:
couple tornadic cells moving towards Jackson

from the movement of the cell nearest to Jackson, will go almost through downtown but just to the East.
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couple tornadic cells moving towards Jackson

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.
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MSC037-085-292315-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0046.101129T2240Z-101129T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BROOKHAVEN...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 440 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MCCALL CREEK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
LINCOLN...VAUGHN...CASEYVILLE AND LOYD STAR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 9068 3169 9031 3138 9069 3147 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 215DEG 35KT 3146 9072

$$

DHB







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x
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000
NWUS53 KEAX 292229
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TORNADO 3 NNW MOORESVILLE 39.79N 93.74W
11/29/2010 LIVINGSTON MO PUBLIC
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For West Palm Beach:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
191. MTWX
First Tornado Report:
2113 1 NW ATLANTA WINN LA 3182 9275
3 HOMES DESTROYED NEAR 705 GUM SPRINGS ROAD JUST NORTHWEST OF ATLANTA. PRELIMINARY DAMAGE PATH ABOUT 100 YARDS WIDE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OFF ABOUT 15 FEET OFF THE GR (SHV)
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Quoting Minnemike:
to think, this morning i was going to post that i saw little potential for development today... almost had crow for dinner tonight.


yeah, tornado took out a couple homes in Atlanta, Louisiana per TWC
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to think, this morning i was going to post that i saw little potential for development today... almost had crow for dinner tonight.
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x
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187. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

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Missouri Tornado Warning


Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MOC079-117-292245-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0029.101129T2209Z-101129T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
409 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 406 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRECKENRIDGE...OR 9
MILES WEST OF CHILLICOTHE. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS DANGEROUS STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING HILL AND CHULA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3988 9337 3976 9376 3980 9377 3990 9377
4005 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 229DEG 26KT 3983 9369

$$

21





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the regional intensity of the large scale Low is bringing some thunderstorms as far north as Iowa... Tornado Warning in northern half of Missouri now.
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184. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20102011
22:00 PM Réunion November 29 2010
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02R (1000 hPa) located at 12.1S 85.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24H

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.9S 85.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.6S 85.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 14.8S 86.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 15.8S 88.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Strong uncertainty remains in the current fix, despite some correct SMISS pass around 1130z and 1246z. It is very hard to find out the center. However those passes suggest that the low level center remains ill defined and elongated from west to east so it is assumed that the center is located near a very recent burst of convection east of 85.0E. Center has been relocated accordingly. Motion is an uncertain south southwest at 4 knots and all available numerical weather prediction models forecast a slow southward track for the system within the next 24-36 hours. On this track, easterly vertical wind shear might decrease under the upper level ridge located around 14-15S. Beyond 36-48 hours, the system should recurve southeastward and undergo again a northwesterly shear under the southern edge of the upper level ridge. Sea surface temperature potential remains rather good as long as the system will remain north of 16.0S. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and still shows a 36 hours window for intensification. Track forecast is a little bit faster than previously.
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
LAC021-049-127-292245-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0077.101129T2202Z-101129T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNFIELD...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALVIN...JOYCE...DODSON...HUDSON...SIKES AND CHATHAM AND
WINNFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 9248 3214 9217 3180 9274 3191 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 223DEG 41KT 3188 9274

$$

13






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darkness falls
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What blog had the 2010 hurricane season predictions?

I got the # of named storms right with 19
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180. MTWX
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Very interesting how active the late fall has been in terms of severe weather. Seems like spring! I hope everyone stays safe and that nothing bad happens tonight.

It's that time of the year for us here in Dixie Alley! Our severe season starts winding down as the plains season cranks up.
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175. MTWX

Best to be alert to changing conditions tonight thru 1-2am seems on the South Shore,Metro areas.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Very interesting how active the late fall has been in terms of severe weather. Seems like spring! I hope everyone stays safe and that nothing bad happens tonight.
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670
fxus64 klix 292143
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
343 PM CST Monday Nov 29 2010



Short term...


A vigorous low pressure system and associated cold front will
impact the region through tomorrow afternoon. The overall event
will be a strong shear/Low Cape scenario...as middle-level lapse
rates indicate a bit more stability aloft. This will allow for low
topped convection through tonight. However...even though this
convection will remain rather shallow...there will a great deal of
shear in place. 0-3 km helicity values of around 300 m2/s2 are
currently over the region. In addition...50+ knots of speed shear
was noted on the 18z sounding from 0-6km. Initial convection will
be well ahead of the cold front...in a region of enhanced positive vorticity advection
ahead of the main upper level trough axis. These cells will be
more discrete in nature...and will have the potential for rotation
through the evening hours. The potential for isolated tornadoes
will exist through around 06z.


The shear profiles should turn more unidirectional after 06z...as
the cold front begins to move into the area. With this shear
profile in place...a more linear storm type will be expected late
tonight and early tomorrow. A squall line with embedded bowing
structures is the most likely form of severe weather during this
time period. Given that 50 knots or so of shear between 0-6km will
still be in place...strong damaging winds can be expected on the
leading edge of any Bow echoes that develop. In addition...this
shear should be enough to induce an isolated tornado at the apex
of the bowing segment.


Conditions will begin to improve dramatically by middle-morning
tomorrow...as the front pulls out of the coastal waters. Some
lingering cloud cover and shower activity is expected through the
evening hours...as forcing aloft associated the main upper level
trough axis moves through the lower Mississippi Valley. In the
wake of the trough axis...strong subsidence and cold air advection
will take of the County Warning Area. This will allow for rapid clearing tomorrow
evening and a sharp drop in temperatures. 1000-500mb thicknesses
will fall to around 5400 meters by midnight tomorrow night...which
will allow temperatures to fall below freezing across the northern
half of the forecast area. In addition...strong winds should
impact coastal areas and the New Orleans metropolitan area south of Lake
Pontchartrain tomorrow night. Will have to monitor and see if a
Wind Advisory is warranted for the southshore tomorrow night.


High pressure will quickly build in on Wednesday and become
centered over the region Wednesday night. A deep cold pool will
remain in place...keeping temperatures well below normal. Given
the dry air...clear skies...and light winds...temperatures should
fall below freezing across most of the County Warning Area. Only areas near
bodies of water will remain in the middle to upper 30s Wednesday
night.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting MTWX:

I'd say around 8 pm, judging by the distance and how fast the storms are moving.


Yep...probably about right....hate those night storms....dont want to wish anyone bad weather, but I sure wish they would move another direction....getting too old for this......lol.
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175. MTWX
I saw that too, Patrap. If that warm front lifts north we are going to be in some serious trouble.
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However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor

Memo to the WMO. Don't replace the 'I' name on this naming list again with another scary Russian name like last time.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
173. MTWX
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Tornadodude....can u estimate a time for that line in Natchitoches to come into Jackson, ms and surrounding areas ?

I'd say around 8-9 pm, judging by the distance and how fast the storms are moving.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...WRN MS...SERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 753...

VALID 292129Z - 292300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 753 CONTINUES.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WW 753 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION IS ALSO FORMING FARTHER EAST INTO
EASTERN LA/SOUTHERN MS...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF WW 753...WITH A RECENT STORM IN WINN PARISH LA
SHOWING STRONG ROTATION AND PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THIS STORM IS
INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. POE VAD PROFILE SHOWS
OVER 400 M2/S2 OF 3KM HELICITY...SUGGESTING SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AND CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FARTHER EAST...DISCRETE SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM IN THE AIR MASS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA COMPARED TO FARTHER WEST...SO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS...THESE STORMS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING TRENDS AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MS.

..HART.. 11/29/2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
GOM IR Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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