Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 271 - 221

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Quoting scott39:
You CANNOT legislate the greed of people in power! Even if you and all the other scientists are right about GW, men in power will not give in to the needs of the Earth. NEVER!! They will use it up first. This is a sad fact.


Like you said Sad but that is the truth 100+
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Anderson was trying to emphasize the depths of the problem by stating that AGW mitigation is a pay now or pay far more later thing. At the Cancun summit, most climatologists and physicists agreed that current plans to deal with AGW are not nearly enough. In fact, the consensus announced at the summit is that unless emissions are reduced dramatically in the next ten years, the world is set to see temperatures rise by more than seven degrees by as early as 2065, causing floods, droughts, mass migrations, and many more problems. Anderson's suggestion was that everyone will need to make concessions--everyone--and if they don't choose to make them now, they and/or their children will be forced to make them a few years from now.

Of course, the world is full of greedy people and/or those unable to extrapolate into the future, so I'm prepared to listen to a bunch more cries of, "Socialist!!!!" Ah, well...

To me, the climate can be likened to the Titanic after hitting that iceberg. Scientists are the deck hands scurrying around like crazy telling everyone the ship will sink within minutes and begging people to get in their flotation vests ASAP as there isn't enough space on the lifeboats for everyone, while skeptics are those sitting on the veranda sipping cognac and listening to chamber music, insisting that the ship is unsinkable and that everyone's in a senseless panic. Of course, even those ignorant folks got the message once the icy waters of the Atlantic began lapping at their button shoes...
You CANNOT legislate the greed of people in power! Even if you and all the other scientists are right about GW, men in power will not give in to the needs of the Earth. NEVER!! They will use it up first. This is a sad fact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ENSO throws another card at the likes trying to predict the beast. Moderate/Strong La Nina favors all that eventually happened this year, at least to my knowledge. Eastward displaced B/A high was expected. If my memory serves me, early on, a neutral to weak La Nina was expected which would have produced a greater US threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hypercapnia:

This is how it REALLY should be: The "rich" countries stop their economic growth, while the "poor" countries are allowed to have unlimited energy use.



Sounds Beautiful But:

Global Warming news:

The following "richest" countries



have decided to stop their economic growth:

Even though the Dow index falled down under 2000 points and the avg. global inflation has skied up to a 60%.... Due to that "sacrifice" we're on a global economic depresion

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This one.

I got close with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 majors.

I went with 18, 12, 6.
We were both close, 09!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Dr. Anderson was trying to emphasize the depths of the problem by stating that AGW mitigation is a pay now or pay far more later thing. At the Cancun summit, most climatologists and physicists agreed that current plans to deal with AGW are not nearly enough. In fact, the consensus announced at the summit is that unless emissions are reduced dramatically in the next ten years, the world is set to see temperatures rise by more than seven degrees by as early as 2065, causing floods, droughts, mass migrations, and many more problems. Anderson's suggestion was that everyone will need to make concessions--everyone--and if they don't choose to make them now, they and/or their children will be forced to make them a few years from now.

Of course, the world is full of greedy people and/or those unable to extrapolate into the future, so I'm prepared to listen to a bunch more cries of, "Socialist!!!!" Ah, well...

To me, the climate can be likened to the Titanic after hitting that iceberg. Scientists are the deck hands scurrying around like crazy telling everyone the ship will sink within minutes and begging people to get in their flotation vests ASAP as there isn't enough space on the lifeboats for everyone, while skeptics are those sitting on the veranda sipping cognac and listening to chamber music, insisting that the ship is unsinkable and that everyone's in a senseless panic. Of course, even those ignorant folks got the message once the icy waters of the Atlantic began lapping at their button shoes...


Well, it is supposed to be a GLOBAL problem.

But read the post again.

He's not suggesting "everyone" sacrifice. He's recommending that the "rich" countries stop their economic growth, while the "poor" countries be allowed to have unlimited energy use.

This is how it REALLY should be.

Tear down the countries that have had the largest economic growth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Lastly as concerns this season I think the experts missed it by a mile. Sure the ocean was boiling which gave rise to a lot of systems, but the threat to the US was off by hundreds of miles. To me if anyone had predicted the continual hostile conditions of the upper atmosphere, above and directly below the greater Antilles now that would have been a forecast.I didn't see any warnings for above average season for Mexico. I know before everyone jumps on me 20/20 is perfect hindsight. I just post this to show how much we don't know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not me, never will be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
Excellent post Ossgss although I think it should be titled please like my fog for a weather blog.


Shirley, you are not serious :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Excellent post Ossgss although I think it should be titled please like my fog for a weather blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AWeatherLover:


I agree that this seems like a little tap dancing to me. Sorry, but they were dead wrong about their U.S. landfalling predictions. Predictions that they made in August, half way through the season, when they already saw how the AB high was setting up. I stick to what I said before, that we have a long way to go when it comes to seasonal forecasts. I think this is especially true with regards to landfalling probabilities.


Perhaps you need to lower your expectations of predictions? It's hard enough to predict local weather more than a week out, never mind seasonal or the path a future hurricane might take. And as far as 'tap dancing' goes, local NWS offices revise their forecast several times a day to reflect updated data. There's no reason why they shouldn't do that for hurricane season either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and i hope ya do it again in 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Howdy, the contest, you all asked me to do again (with nearly 60 participants) , is coming to an end tomorrow. Who will win?

BTW, this blog did, once again, very well overall statistically in total.

Business opportunity Doc :)


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
God Bless Leslie Nelson, and surely you all cannot be serious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yellow circle on Nov 29th, even though 10%, doubts anything significant will occur, even though a off season storm is not out of the question ,though I doubt it. Anyway everyone have a Happy Holiday Season and all the best for the New Year, abit early, but hopefully I'll chat with you all June 2011.Stay safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A cell is moving at 55 mph. Wow. Another at 45 mph. Velocity. Got to turn in as have to get up early for meeting in a.m. ciao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
254. beell
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, we'll have to BOLO tomorrow night. Hopefully the system will lose some strength as it crosses the mountains.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM IN
THE WEST...AND 1 AM TO 6 AM IN THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
AT 925MB WILL STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN
300-400 M2/SEC2. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT
BUT MODEL TENDENCY WITH THESE LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER EVENTS HAS BEEN
TO UNDER FORECAST THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
. THUS WHILE THE NAM
SUGGEST SBCAPE/MLCAPE/MUCAPE AT OR BELOW 400 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR
THESE PARAMETERS TO BE HIGHER...CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ORIGINATE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S.


From the 10:55AM SPC Day 2:

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A REDUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS TO ESCALATE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/E OF THE APPALACHIANS... PARTICULARLY SC
NWD INTO ERN/CNTRL VA. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK THAT AIDS IN MORE
NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG UVV...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KTS OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALL BE FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT QLCS SEVERE MODES. HAVE EXPANDED
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES NWD ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND THE
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK INTO MOST OF ERN/CNTRL VA.
Link

The prospect of a surface low as shown on the SREF Spaghetti Lows and the warm front snaking down across W VA and NC may give you some storms to keep an eye on near these two features. Instability looks low-even given the fact that models have underdone instability this 2nd season.

Both charts are valid Wednesday 00Z (7PM EST)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tornado Warning
Statement as of 8:46 PM CST on November 29, 2010

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 915 PM CST for eastern Yazoo... west central Madison and north central Hinds counties...

At 847 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists continue to track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This tornado was located near Myrleville moving northeast at 55 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Benton and Canton

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Warning means that a tornado is occurring or imminent. You should activate your tornado action plan and take protective action now.


Lat... Lon 3288 9022 3260 8999 3234 9063 3235 9064
3236 9063 3238 9063 3245 9059 3248 9060
3252 9055 3253 9055 3254 9058 3255 9059
3256 9065
time... Mot... loc 0247z 237deg 46kt 3266 9028
844 PM CST Mon Nov 29 2010

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...Hinds County in central Mississippi... this includes the cities of... Byram... Clinton... extreme south central Yazoo County in central Mississippi...northeastern Claiborne County in southwest Mississippi...central Warren County in west central Mississippi...

* until 945 PM CST

* at 844 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a tornado 14 miles southwest of Reganton moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Utica... Newman... Bovina... Flowers... Dry Grove... Edwards...Raymond... Bolton and Brownsville

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Warning means that a tornado is occurring or imminent. You should activate your tornado action plan and take protective action
now.


Lat... Lon 3258 9044 3250 9045 3249 9037 3227 9019
3226 9020 3223 9018 3220 9018 3218 9023
3216 9024 3205 9055 3205 9072 3199 9072
3221 9092
time... Mot... loc 0244z 233deg 39kt 3205 9091


Dhb






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Y'all. Wicked storms headed through MS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Nice tribute!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AWeatherLover:


I agree that this seems like a little tap dancing to me. Sorry, but they were dead wrong about their U.S. landfalling predictions. Predictions that they made in August, half way through the season, when they already saw how the AB high was setting up. I stick to what I said before, that we have a long way to go when it comes to seasonal forecasts. I think this is especially true with regards to landfalling probabilities.

Well, August 4th is not "halfway through the season"; it's only 1/3 of the way calendar-wise, and this year the tally as of that date was just 3-1-0 with 16-11-5 yet to come. At any rate, I guess we'll have to disagree about the definition of "dead wrong". A forecast calling for 100% chance of rain is wrong if it doesn't rain, of course, but a forecast calling for, say, a 75% chance of rain isn't wrong if it doesn't rain (and it's no more wrong than a shower on a day with just a 25% chance of rain).

I think the professionals did very well...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
249. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


It would appear so Neap ;)


Saw your earlier post about the 'stupid' fun we had last night. Well, some of us enjoy the bit of fun in here when the wx is quiet. In the future, please don't call my posts stupid. Or Shirley. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hypercapnia:
Don't know if you all are keeping up with the "talks" in Cancun, but some really awesome ideas are being kicked around:

"...In one paper Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the only way to reduce global emissions enough, while allowing the poor nations to continue to grow, is to halt economic growth in the rich world over the next twenty years..."

Giving the "developing" countries a pass again.

More from the same paper:

"...He said politicians should consider a rationing system similar to the one introduced during the last %u201Ctime of crisis%u201D in the 1930s and 40s.

This could mean a limit on electricity so people are forced to turn the heating down, turn off the lights and replace old electrical goods like huge fridges with more efficient models..."

Dr. Anderson was trying to emphasize the depths of the problem by stating that AGW mitigation is a pay now or pay far more later thing. At the Cancun summit, most climatologists and physicists agreed that current plans to deal with AGW are not nearly enough. In fact, the consensus announced at the summit is that unless emissions are reduced dramatically in the next ten years, the world is set to see temperatures rise by more than seven degrees by as early as 2065, causing floods, droughts, mass migrations, and many more problems. Anderson's suggestion was that everyone will need to make concessions--everyone--and if they don't choose to make them now, they and/or their children will be forced to make them a few years from now.

Of course, the world is full of greedy people and/or those unable to extrapolate into the future, so I'm prepared to listen to a bunch more cries of, "Socialist!!!!" Ah, well...

To me, the climate can be likened to the Titanic after hitting that iceberg. Scientists are the deck hands scurrying around like crazy telling everyone the ship will sink within minutes and begging people to get in their flotation vests ASAP as there isn't enough space on the lifeboats for everyone, while skeptics are those sitting on the veranda sipping cognac and listening to chamber music, insisting that the ship is unsinkable and that everyone's in a senseless panic. Of course, even those ignorant folks got the message once the icy waters of the Atlantic began lapping at their button shoes...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Evening all,

Been a while since I've posted here, but I had to because of this amazing article Dr. M posted for 2010. This season was so unbelievable in ways I didn't even know. Wow!!!

Also lookin' out for severe weather in my back yard by this time tomorrow. Looks like the "party" that's gettin started down in LA/MS is headed my way.


Yeah, we'll have to BOLO tomorrow night. Hopefully the system will lose some strength as it crosses the mountains.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM IN
THE WEST...AND 1 AM TO 6 AM IN THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW
AT 925MB WILL STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN
300-400 M2/SEC2. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT
BUT MODEL TENDENCY WITH THESE LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER EVENTS HAS BEEN
TO UNDER FORECAST THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
. THUS WHILE THE NAM
SUGGEST SBCAPE/MLCAPE/MUCAPE AT OR BELOW 400 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR
THESE PARAMETERS TO BE HIGHER...CONSIDERING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ORIGINATE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

The CSU team produced four forecasts:

12/09/2009: 11-6-3 to 16-8-5
04/07/2010: 15-8-4
06/02/2010: 18-10-5
08/10/2010: 18-10-5

Obviously, the season stands at 19-12-5...which is, by most weather predicting standards, a pretty good forecast numbers-wise.

So far as landfalls, CSU predicted a 75% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere in the US, a 50% chance of an east coast major, and a 49% chance of a Gulf Coast major. Using the probability converse, then, they predicted a 25% chance of no landfalling CONUS major, a 50% chance of no east coast major, and a 51% chance of no Gulf major--again, not bad forecasts at all. Climatology was certainly on their side so fas as the US suffering a direct hit. The fact that didn't happen is less an indictment of any forecast than further verification of what an absolutely remarkable season it has been.


I agree that this seems like a little tap dancing to me. Sorry, but they were dead wrong about their U.S. landfalling predictions. Predictions that they made in August, half way through the season, when they already saw how the AB high was setting up. I stick to what I said before, that we have a long way to go when it comes to seasonal forecasts. I think this is especially true with regards to landfalling probabilities.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. beell
Thanks, XLR8
Storm report just popped up also.

0210
YAZOO CITY YAZOO MS
3286 9041
STRUCTURAL AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN YAZOO CITY, UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE KNOWN AT THIS TIME AND WILL UPDATE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
243. Skyepony (Mod)
Excellent blog. After coming near '05 this season, so soon, I wonder if Dr Masters' assurance we'll never see another that bad is still as confident.

Quoting Jeff9641:
Parts of East C FL have seen excessive rain as a result of this stalled front.


0.60" here so far in Melbourne. It's been so dry we can more than handle it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 38111
242. XLR8
Quoting beell:
This one kinda looks like it's on the ground.

7:31PM Tornado Warning-Yazoo City


Our news is saying it was on the ground
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hypercapnia:
Don't know if you all are keeping up with the "talks" in Cancun, but some really awesome ideas are being kicked around:

"...In one paper Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the only way to reduce global emissions enough, while allowing the poor nations to continue to grow, is to halt economic growth in the rich world over the next twenty years..."

Giving the "developing" countries a pass again.

More from the same paper:

"...He said politicians should consider a rationing system similar to the one introduced during the last “time of crisis” in the 1930s and 40s.

This could mean a limit on electricity so people are forced to turn the heating down, turn off the lights and replace old electrical goods like huge fridges with more efficient models..."


What about this?

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Don't know if you all are keeping up with the "talks" in Cancun, but some really awesome ideas are being kicked around:

"...In one paper Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the only way to reduce global emissions enough, while allowing the poor nations to continue to grow, is to halt economic growth in the rich world over the next twenty years..."

Giving the "developing" countries a pass again.

More from the same paper:

"...He said politicians should consider a rationing system similar to the one introduced during the last “time of crisis” in the 1930s and 40s.

This could mean a limit on electricity so people are forced to turn the heating down, turn off the lights and replace old electrical goods like huge fridges with more efficient models..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
238. beell
This one kinda looks like it's on the ground.

7:31PM Tornado Warning-Yazoo City
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting calusakat:


I am recommending that Wikipedia place this explanation in the place that explains the art of tap dancing.

I can't stop laughing.



Oh, I see. Are you another of those people with a really low threshold for comedy? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting Neapolitan:

The CSU team produced four forecasts:

12/09/2009: 11-6-3 to 16-8-5
04/07/2010: 15-8-4
06/02/2010: 18-10-5
08/10/2010: 18-10-5

Obviously, the season stands at 19-12-5...which is, by most weather predicting standards, a pretty good forecast numbers-wise.

So far as landfalls, CSU predicted a 75% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere in the US, a 50% chance of an east coast major, and a 49% chance of a Gulf Coast major. Using the probability converse, then, they predicted a 25% chance of no landfalling CONUS major, a 50% chance of no east coast major, and a 51% chance of no Gulf major--again, not bad forecasts at all. Climatology was certainly on their side so fas as the US suffering a direct hit. The fact that didn't happen is less an indictment of any forecast than further verification of what an absolutely remarkable season it has been.


I am recommending that Wikipedia place this explanation in the place that explains the art of tap dancing.

I can't stop laughing.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AWeatherLover:
I'm a little late joining the discussion today, but I was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the seasonal forecasts. I'm curious why Dr. Masters thinks the CSU team performed well with their forecast, when their April forecast said 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 majors. The actual of course was 19 storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors. Seems CSU underestimated their forecast, maybe even severely. CSU also said there was an above average risk of a U.S. gulf coast landfall, which obviously never came to fruition. Any thoughts? Obviously, there's still a ways to go with these seasonal forecasts.
On another note, I'm looking forward to an exciting evening of storms here in Baton Rouge. Hope nothing too severe pops up, but a little thunder to keep me company during my long night of studying would be great!

The CSU team produced four forecasts:

12/09/2009: 11-6-3 to 16-8-5
04/07/2010: 15-8-4
06/02/2010: 18-10-5
08/10/2010: 18-10-5

Obviously, the season stands at 19-12-5...which is, by most weather predicting standards, a pretty good forecast numbers-wise.

So far as landfalls, CSU predicted a 75% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere in the US, a 50% chance of an east coast major, and a 49% chance of a Gulf Coast major. Using the probability converse, then, they predicted a 25% chance of no landfalling CONUS major, a 50% chance of no east coast major, and a 51% chance of no Gulf major--again, not bad forecasts at all. Climatology was certainly on their side so fas as the US suffering a direct hit. The fact that didn't happen is less an indictment of any forecast than further verification of what an absolutely remarkable season it has been.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Evening all,

Been a while since I've posted here, but I had to because of this amazing article Dr. M posted for 2010. This season was so unbelievable in ways I didn't even know. Wow!!!

Also lookin' out for severe weather in my back yard by this time tomorrow. Looks like the "party" that's gettin started down in LA/MS is headed my way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the Info T-Dude.. Here on the plateau, rights in me own back yard..56.5 degrees, Windchill-45 degrees, Wind out of the south at 15 G 28 mph...It is wet,windy,nasty and cold. And it will get worse. They say a bit of snow in the morn....Do you think middle TN will get severe weather ? Impulse rounding the bottom of the low is suppose to make things interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm a little late joining the discussion today, but I was just wondering if anyone had any thoughts on the seasonal forecasts. I'm curious why Dr. Masters thinks the CSU team performed well with their forecast, when their April forecast said 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 majors. The actual of course was 19 storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors. Seems CSU underestimated their forecast, maybe even severely. CSU also said there was an above average risk of a U.S. gulf coast landfall, which obviously never came to fruition. Any thoughts? Obviously, there's still a ways to go with these seasonal forecasts.
On another note, I'm looking forward to an exciting evening of storms here in Baton Rouge. Hope nothing too severe pops up, but a little thunder to keep me company during my long night of studying would be great!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MSC053-125-163-300130-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0049.101130T0059Z-101130T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ROLLING FORK...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 659 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
ROLLING FORK MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HOLLY
BLUFF AND MIDNIGHT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 9054 3296 9033 3268 9089 3276 9096
3285 9096 3286 9094 3289 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 233DEG 40KT 3281 9086

$$

BYB







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Scrooged is on AMC!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
chaser from tornadovideos.net caught one of the tornadoes on video today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
maybe a second system forms over cen eastern tex
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
XX/XX/AOI
MARK
11.13N/79.88W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54268
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Same thing here! lol We finally have something to watch, but isn't it a little late?
I don't think it would amount to much since shear is very high now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
LAC035-041-065-083-123-300030-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0048.101129T2350Z-101130T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL WEST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 550 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOLLY RIDGE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BAKERS...DELHI...WARDEN...WAVERLY...TENDAL AND MONTICELLO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 9123 3242 9116 3229 9168 3244 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 237DEG 39KT 3241 9164

$$

BYB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 271 - 221

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
54 °F
Partly Cloudy