Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:01 PM GMT on November 29, 2010

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November 30 marks the final day of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season--a strange and highly active season. While it was an exceptionally active year, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, deaths and damages were far below what one would expect from so much activity. To me, this year is most memorable for what didn't happen--we did not get a full fledged hurricane rip through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, nor did a devastating hurricane cause massive loss of life in Haiti's vulnerable earthquake zone. However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well.

The 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes were 198%, 203%, and 217% of the 1950-2000 average for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively. The nineteen named storms ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier (Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s.) This year also featured twelve hurricanes, tying 2010 with 1969 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes. The five major hurricanes this year puts us in a tie for ninth place for most major hurricanes in a season. This year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index was 163, putting it in 13th place for ACE since 1944. A "hyperactive" hurricane season is considered to have an ACE index of >175% of the median. According to Wikipedia, median ACE measured over the period 1951–2000 for the Atlantic basin was 87.5, so 2010 is a hyperactive year by that definition (183% of the median.)



Friendly steering currents for the U.S.
As active as the 2010 season was, only one weak tropical storm made a direct landfall on the U.S. (Tropical Storm Bonnie, which hit South Florida in August as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.) During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. Thus, the U.S. should have expected the landfall of six named storms, four of them being hurricanes, and two being intense hurricanes. So, the U.S. really lucked out this year. For comparison, here's how the U.S. fared in the four other hurricane seasons as busy or more busy:

2005: 28 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 4 of those major hurricanes)
1933: 21 storms, 7 hit the U.S. (5 were hurricanes, and 3 of those were major hurricanes)
1995: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (2 were hurricanes, and 1 was major)
1887: 19 storms, 5 hit the U.S. (3 were hurricanes, no majors)

We had twelve hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2010, yet none of them struck the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with ten or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The eleven previous seasons with ten or more hurricanes--1870, 1878, 1886, 1893, 1916, 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 1998, and 2005--each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S. Since hurricane Ike (2008), there have been eighteen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes. Such a sequence last happened between Irene (1999) and Lili (2002), with 22 consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes, and between Allen (1980) and Alicia (1983) with seventeen consecutive non US-landfalling hurricanes (thanks go to Adam Lea of tropicalstormrisk.com for these stats.)

No major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have hit the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma of 2005. This is just the third such major hurricane drought since 1851. The other two such 5-year major hurricane droughts were 1901 - 1905 and 1910 - 1914. Also, 2010 is the only year besides 1951 when there have been five major hurricanes in the Atlantic, and none have hit the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but preliminary results from a re-analysis effort shows that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) There has never been a six year period without a U.S. major hurricane landfall.

The reason the U.S. got so lucky--and that Canada and Mexico took a much more severe beating than usual--was that the Azores/Bermuda high was farther east than usual, and there were more strong troughs of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast than usual. In addition, there was stronger high pressure than usual over the U.S. Gulf Coast, which deflected Caribbean storms into Mexico.

Intense hurricanes in unprecedented locations
Another remarkable feature of this year was that we saw three major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl was the southernmost major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa were at their warmest levels on record for almost the entire year.

Rare simultaneous hurricane occurrences and activity levels
On September 16, there were three simultaneous hurricanes--Karl, Igor, and Julia--in the Atlantic. According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State, three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight other times since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995, and 1998. Two of those years--1998 and 1893--had four simultaneous hurricanes.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

On September 15, Hurricane Julia and Hurricane Igor were both Category 4 storms. This was just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. The four Category 4 storms in 2010 makes this year tied for third place for most Category 4+ storms in a year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999). This year is also holds the record for the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on September 15 in 1999.) We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Rare activity levels
Five hurricanes formed during the month of October. Only 1870 (six hurricanes) and 1950 (five hurricanes) have had five or more October hurricanes. We also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beat the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999--24 days. Eleven named storms formed between August 22 and September 29. This is the most named storms to form during this period, breaking the old record of nine named storms set in 1933, 1949, 1984 and 2002 (thanks go to Phil Klotzbach of CSU for the last two stats.)

Hurricane Alex
Hurricane Alex had the highest sustained winds (100 mph) of any June hurricane since Hurricane Alma of 1966 (125 mph.)

Hurricane Earl
As Hurricane Earl approached North Carolina on September 2, its 140 mph winds made it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961, Hurricane Connie of 1955, and Hurricane Two of 1922 had stronger winds at a more northerly latitude.


Figure 2. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland's worst hurricane in memory
Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."


Figure 3. A ravine carved by Hurricane Igor's flood waters washed out the Trans-Canada Highway, isolating Southeast Newfoundland from the rest of the province. Image credit: CBC News.

Hurricane Julia: strongest hurricane so far east
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds made it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926, which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region were about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane.

Hurricane Karl: strongest hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche
Hurricane Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl was a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945). Flooding from Karl caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage to Mexico, making Karl this year's most damaging storm.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Paula sets a rapid intensification record
Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the season, set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. Paula reached hurricane strength just twelve hours after the first advisory was issued. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 held the previous record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. However, there is one caveat to keep in mind. It is likely that when the final Atlantic hurricane data base (HURDAT) is constructed, Paula will be recognized as having been a tropical depression 3 - 9 hours before the first advisory was issued. Thus, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane in eighteen hours, tying Humberto's record. There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Hurricane Tomas
The formation of Tomas so far south and east so late in the season (October 29) is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we had simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30--Tomas and Shary. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Tomas was the 6th deadliest late-season Atlantic hurricane on record, and its preliminary death toll of 31 - 41 makes it the deadliest storm of the 2010 season. Tomas killed at least nine people and did at least $100 million in damage to St. Lucia, making it that island's second most damaging storm on record.


Figure 5. This landslide on St. Lucia after Tomas destroyed an art studio located just below the white car, killing several people. Image credit: Bernd Rac, Anse Chastanet.

Pre-season forecasts do well
Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of CSU have a more in-depth summary of this year's hurricane season. Kudos to them and all the other seasonal forecasting groups, whose forecasts of an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season were spot-on. CSU will make their first forecast for the 2011 hurricane season on Wednesday, December 12.

Jeff Masters

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we have completed the update of the blog page to a full winter weather page with severe section with and added feature for season european winter weather section
as we come to the end of 2010 atlantic hurricane season nov 30 7pm TWO the full tropical section will be removed and return to the page starting on april 15,2011 thanks for all who visited the tropical page over the summer and i hope to see you return next season.

seasons greetings best wishes in 2011

...KOTG
Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
might need to watch this little cell
eventually, not much now, but that could change as it closes in on the warm front




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2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
final countdown
06 hrs 10 mins GMT
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Good afternoon everyone

looks like North Carolina is under the gun today for tornadoes



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC STATES...

...CNTRL GULF STATES EWD TO THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COASTS...

POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER TX WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD OVER THE SERN STATES LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
/I.E. 100-200 M PER 12-HR/ WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM EWD WITH
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WRN OH SWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL AL AS OF 15Z
WILL CONCURRENTLY PROGRESS EWD WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NY SWD THROUGH ERN VA...THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE NRN OR
CNTRL FL PENINSULA BY 01/12Z. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED BY AFTERNOON OVER NRN GA PRIOR TO DEVELOPING NEWD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NERN AL/NWRN GA SWWD INTO FAR SERN LA ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT. SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF ONGOING COLD
FRONTAL ACTIVITY TODAY...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A FLUX OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR /I.E. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR AND SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED NWD
DEVELOPMENT OF WEDGE FRONT E OF THE APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...12Z BMX
SOUNDING INDICATED THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE
OF SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG
AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING
OF BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD
SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION TODAY FROM THE NERN GULF COAST NEWD
THROUGH MUCH OF GA INTO SC WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

LATEST CONVECTION-RESOLVING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE MAINTAINED THOUGH THE DAY
WITH ADDITIONAL BAND/S/ OF TSTMS FORMING DOWNSTREAM IN EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR WHERE CORRIDORS OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ARE ENHANCED.
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/
WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A
FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AS COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHIFT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS ALONG FRONT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WITH PERHAPS ONE DOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF TSTMS
FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN.

..MEAD/GARNER.. 11/30/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1739Z (12:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Thats nice, It needs to also say

BE SURE TO WEAR THE TURTLE NECK AND THE HAT GRANDMA KNITTED THAT HAS THE POMPOM ON TOP AND DON'T FORGET YOUR MITTENS AND SCARF OR YOU WILL CATCH COLD.


Well, I do have that reindeer sweater that the mother in law bought me last year.

Had to remind her I live in the south.
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At least until 2011 season kicks off...
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Dak....let's pray that's true....
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Amy - you should be able to put the fork back now.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Long-range GFS showing quite a meridional pattern with a series of blocks across the Northern hemishere. East coast looks to be in the ice box for a while if this verifies with quite an impressive LES event.


Hey "killer," good to see you.
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According to TWC our Tor Con in south GA is up to 6/10.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
hey guys whats up
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be back later
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Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
Big storms bearing down on Pensacola now. Gonna be interesting in a little while!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Overcast

72 °F
(22 °C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: S 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.08"
Dewpoint: 70 °F (21 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
-Overnight Severe Possible Look at that Dewpoint!!!

-I see my hometown in Southeast GA(Millen) has snow in the forecast for next Wednesday night interesting!
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your right I did say that and it looks as if the pattern the models are showing should keep it cool for quite awhile. It looks as if the Arctic Express has opened it's doors.


Long-range GFS showing quite a meridional pattern with a series of blocks across the Northern hemishere. East coast looks to be in the ice box for a while if this verifies with quite an impressive LES event.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


It snows... your going to get blamed. I hear that BF has setup a hunting party.
all the fans are turned and ready to fire up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
345. eddye
jeff 9641 so south fla could hit the 30 once our twice this year
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Quoting Jeff9641:


OUCH! We in FL have enjoyed basically the whole month of November in the 80's but boy does December have a different wx pattern coming that looks to put FL in a long cool/cold spell.

Yeah not going to see much of snow like we did last year though, hard to believe that we recieved snow 3 times last year, and in total of the 3 times picked up a decent amount of 1.09 inches of snow. actually enough to make a snow man! LOL anyway not going to see any white days this year with our temps being above average, the thing i worry most is this coming summer, how it will react to the la nina conditions because it's similar to 2008's and that summer produced 67 days straight of 100 degree temps and a drought for the record books.
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Quoting jb410:
Key West suffers ice storm...
I hope you are joking. Last year when it got so cold we had a huge fish die off. You should have seen the angel fish, snappers, whatever that were cold stunned and died. Not to mention the turtles throughout the state.
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341. eddye
jeff 9641 wow i remember when u said we werent going 2 get cold and know we are thast is a weird la nina
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suppose to get down to 30 Tonight, Wind Chill is going to put us at 25 just glad im not in Abilene suppose get down to teens, 12 to 16 degrees.
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336. eddye
jeff 9641 how cold does it show for west palm beach for next week the gfs and i also want 2 know how cold for orlando thanks buddy
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Wow, November 30th. cant believe its already over, with so many storms to track this season time flies I guess. What i cant believe is that there hasnt been a single storm this November, because Tomas formed on October 29, and this is the first time weve seen an area of interest this month, on the last day. Give it a total of 20 maybe 30% chance of that southwest caribbean system getting to Virginie Status(im being nice this morning) but ive seen weirder like Paloma(cat.4 in november), Odette and Peter(december storms). so this could be interesting
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334. MTWX
We could use some snow showers in North MS! I am entertained by the mayhem that ensues as the flurries start flying!
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332. jb410
Be cool, man... it's alright... I take your rap...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Just 182 days, 10 hours, and 58 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway. Works for me; the sooner this winter stuff goes away, the better. I'll just have to take consolation in the fact that the winter solstice is only three weeks away, after which the days start getting longer once again (that is, for those of us in the NH).

Hurry up, Spring!


Always the optimist.

We can finally say goodbye to the official "man-designated" Hurricane Season of 2010.
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329. jb410
Key West suffers ice storm...
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328. jb410
Next thing you know, a major hurricane will hit So. Florida within the next week...
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327. jb410
Oh, brother...
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Quoting Jeff9641:
TWC is showing SNOW from Shreveport,LA to Macon,GA next Tuesday thru Wed. Also shows heavy rain from the C Gulf coast to FL as this Gulf low intensifies rapidly as it crosses FL. GFS does not show this but the Euro does and so does the CMC but the CMC is further north than the Euro.

TWC has a history of cherry-picking models for hype (similar to accu-hype-weather).
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Quoting Patrap:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
406 am CST Tuesday Nov 30 2010


Short term...
no need stating the obvious. After the cold front moves through
temperatures will fall into the 50s before the day is done. High pressure
will move in with the core topping the area as well. Freezing
temperatures will be found mainly over the northern half of the area.

Wind
speeds should remain around 5 knots for those areas and 10 knots
or better for the remainder. The highs core moves over Wednesday night
keeping freezing temperatures in the fcast. The high remains anchored
over the north central Gulf Coast through Sat before moving east
as another strong cold front moves through Tuesday. This is where
things get interesting...depending on which global solution you
like.


Both the Euro and the North American suites are initializing very
well. Therefore...must go with experience as we approach the end
of the 7th day going into the 8th day. Both global models dig an
upper Great Lakes trough but they differ in their handling of the
upper cut off low out of the Pacific through the SW. The GFS
erodes the low while the Euro keeps it in tact. The in tact
scenario seems to be more likely since the upper low is moving to
the south side of a large upper high. The upper lows would be
moving through temperatures that are warmer than its core which would
cause it to stay together as it moves east. It would then open up
to the upper trough over the Great Lakes since the temperature structure
between them will be of little difference. This is the Euro
scenario. Now comes the big problem...both models bring a cold air
mass over the deep south with a frontal passage on Tuesday. If
this upper low stays in tact...which it should...a strong Gulf low
will begin to develop. This will sling an abundance of moisture
back over this cold air by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Obviously...timing
and a bunch of other things can and probably will change with this
but it is something that we will have to be wary of as we get
into next week.

Interesting that the NWS over there favors the Euro, while the NWS here in Houston favors the GFS (and has the upper low falling apart).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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