Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am looking forward to Thursday... I just checked the Toronto weather :)
well we need a good snow base with deep cold air if i'am going to sent it south
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671


return flow detected on advancing dev warm front
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow


I am looking forward to Thursday... I just checked the Toronto weather :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow


Datz why I have 2 NOAA Battery Backed upped Weather Alert Radio's.

We always get a November outbreak seems.

A spring like pattern every year is inevitable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
SPC Nov 28, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun Nov 28 11:32:57 CDT 2010
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Some other Scoundrel



Guilty as charged...
(Hanging my head in shame)

It's OK.
He pointed them West apparently.
It does not seem to be bothering any Normal people.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting pottery:
What's The Grey Cup?
Sounds rather Gloomy....


Grey Cup 2010

Its played outdoors.. and its in Edmonton this year. Here is a link to their weather today.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Orcasystems:


Buddies like you are hard to find. I am trying to find the appropriate words I can post here to tell you how much I appreciate that.

So far the only way they would look right.. is if I hold down the enter key and hit most of the number keys :)

LOL to that.
Glad to help...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Some other Scoundrel



Guilty as charged...
(Hanging my head in shame)
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 649
SPC Nov 28, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun Nov 28 11:32:57 CDT 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I have sent her a personal email, saying how eager you are to do it ALL today. Lights, tree, everything. All she has to do is ask.
Take that!

heheheheh


Buddies like you are hard to find. I am trying to find the appropriate words I can post here to tell you how much I appreciate that.

So far the only way they would look right.. is if I hold down the enter key and hit most of the number keys :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512


we have a hatch for severe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55671
What's The Grey Cup?
Sounds rather Gloomy....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG.. delete this post before she sees it.. she wasn't even talking about the tree yet... what are you trying to do to me.

Its the Grey Cup today... and your giving her ideas :(

I have sent her a personal email, saying how eager you are to do it ALL today. Lights, tree, everything. All she has to do is ask.
Take that!

heheheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting pottery:

He was threatening to get onto his roof, and to do something Diabolical with fans.....
Some other Scoundrel suggested Turbo-Boost fans.
Not sure what it was all about, but it sounded like Heavy Stuff.


He tested it by pointing it to the west... it works... a little to well.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting pottery:

Weather here is very nice as well.
But no Icebergs. sigh.
Good luck with the Tree. The Best tree I ever saw, was one that my sister-in-law made years ago.--- ( when Macrame was 'in' )
she used several round 'hoops' of 1/4" tubing, biggest below, smallest on top, and did a wonderful macrame to hold them all together. Even macramed-in the strings of lights.
Then hung the whole caboodle from a hook in the ceiling.
To take it down, just lower the thing into a large garbage bag, and stash it away till next year. All the hoops fit into one another.

Of course, this eliminates all the Happy Moments of 'putting-up' the tree. Like having to unpack 47 boxes of stuff you should have thrown away years ago etc. But kept because Aunt Gemima gave it to you in 1951. And she might Return one day...

Have a Good One, anyway....


OMG.. delete this post before she sees it.. she wasn't even talking about the tree yet... what are you trying to do to me.

Its the Grey Cup today... and your giving her ideas :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting weathergeek5:


I think keeper left the gates open again...

He was threatening to get onto his roof, and to do something Diabolical with fans.....
Some other Scoundrel suggested Turbo-Boost fans.
Not sure what it was all about, but it sounded like Heavy Stuff.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sounds like a Clark Griswold Christmas!


She said : You don't "have" to do the whole house, just do some of it.

She knows full well that once I start I have to do it properly, or not at all.... I'm hooped :(


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(

Weather here is very nice as well.
But no Icebergs. sigh.
Good luck with the Tree. The Best tree I ever saw, was one that my sister-in-law made years ago.--- ( when Macrame was 'in' )
she used several round 'hoops' of 1/4" tubing, biggest below, smallest on top, and did a wonderful macrame to hold them all together. Even macramed-in the strings of lights.
Then hung the whole caboodle from a hook in the ceiling.
To take it down, just lower the thing into a large garbage bag, and stash it away till next year. All the hoops fit into one another.

Of course, this eliminates all the Happy Moments of 'putting-up' the tree. Like having to unpack 47 boxes of stuff you should have thrown away years ago etc. But kept because Aunt Gemima gave it to you in 1951. And she might Return one day...

Have a Good One, anyway....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(


Sounds like a Clark Griswold Christmas!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Who let the dogs out!


I think keeper left the gates open again...
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Quoting pottery:

Hmmmm,
Now that you mention it.......
she has had a sort of dissapointed countenance since the Episode.


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Orcasystems:


Are you sure she wasn't talking to the cat who was watching you?

Hmmmm,
Now that you mention it.......
she has had a sort of dissapointed countenance since the Episode.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting pottery:
I have just completed the re-wiring of a light-switch, that I took apart last week to do some minor renovations.
It is NEVER a good idea, to follow the colour-coded wiring in existing circuits, especially when the wiring is old.
A large flash and a tripped breaker is ALWAYS the result of such foolish assumptions.
It was so heartening to hear the Lady Pott's "are you all right, Dear?" at my LoudMouthed expletive.

The most vexing thing about the episode, is that I KNEW not to connect the wires without checking first.

Here endeth the First Lesson.


Are you sure she wasn't talking to the cat who was watching you?
______________________________

When Love Fades...


Last night I was sitting on the sofa watching TV when I heard my wife's' voice from the kitchen.

"What would you like for dinner my Love?... Chicken, beef or lamb?"

I said, "Thank you, I'll have chicken."

She replied "You're having soup, Fool. I was talking to the cat."
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
I have just completed the re-wiring of a light-switch, that I took apart last week to do some minor renovations.
It is NEVER a good idea, to follow the colour-coded wiring in existing circuits, especially when the wiring is old.
A large flash and a tripped breaker is ALWAYS the result of such foolish assumptions.
It was so heartening to hear the Lady Pott's "are you all right, Dear?" at my LoudMouthed expletive.

The most vexing thing about the episode, is that I KNEW not to connect the wires without checking first.

Here endeth the First Lesson.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a real problem with Palin as a political candidate for the US presidency. IMO she contributed heavily to McCain's loss, expecially among moderates. [I still think he would have done better with Christ or someone similar.] But that's not because Palin is female; there are other qualified women [Clinton is one] who make respectable candidates. It goes back to what pottery was saying about the new culture of venerating ignorance.

To use a wx example, do u want NHC run by some hair-smoothing tv weather news reader, or by a qualified and experienced wx expert? Thank goodness there do seem to be some potential future meteorologists out there. Pity we're not seeing the same high quality in the "up and coming" politicians....

Agreed. On all points.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
Well, I gotta get out of here... this is the first day in WEEKS that I've been able to hang around and look at the blog for more than 15-20 minutes at a time, but duty is calling - my cell, actually lol.

Once the Christmas rush is firmly up and running, I should have more time to hang around. If the Southern hemisphere reacts the way I think it might, I think we'll have quite a few Fiji area storms to watch this season....

Later!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Another great post...I dont care if she was Governor or not..She would not make a good president...She seems like a nice, hard working, woman....But certainly not presidential...I mention in passing that this is not a gender issue with me, I did vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 primaries. And before anyone disses me, this is my first(and most likely the last) post I will make that is politically charged...
I have a real problem with Palin as a political candidate for the US presidency. IMO she contributed heavily to McCain's loss, expecially among moderates. [I still think he would have done better with Christ or someone similar.] But that's not because Palin is female; there are other qualified women [Clinton is one] who make respectable candidates. It goes back to what pottery was saying about the new culture of venerating ignorance.

To use a wx example, do u want NHC run by some hair-smoothing tv weather news reader, or by a qualified and experienced wx expert? Thank goodness there do seem to be some potential future meteorologists out there. Pity we're not seeing the same high quality in the "up and coming" politicians....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pottery, interesting that you mentioned that Death of a Civilization thing... was just talking to someone about that last night in connexion with the media's fascination w/ Sarah Palin.... as serious as the world situation is in several ways, there seems to be lots of free news time to spend discussing someone who is, essentially, a VERY ... ah... uninformed.... person. Why is there even any discussion of this lady as presidential potential? How would she handle the crises of war, not to mention the larger long-term disaster potential of the climate shift we seem to be experiencing?

China and Japan will end up "saving the world from climate disaster", while the US, with its democratic principles lost in the political haze, will fade into historical obscurity....
Another great post...I dont care if she was Governor or not..She would not make a good president...She seems like a nice, hard working, woman....But certainly not presidential...I mention in passing that this is not a gender issue with me, I did vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 primaries. And before anyone disses me, this is my first(and most likely the last) post I will make that is politically charged...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Quoting pottery:

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.




Great post..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
BTW, based on that loop, doesn't look like there's currently much rotation with that system....

http://www.met.gov.fj/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pottery, interesting that you mentioned that Death of a Civilization thing... was just talking to someone about that last night in connexion with the media's fascination w/ Sarah Palin.... as serious as the world situation is in several ways, there seems to be lots of free news time to spend discussing someone who is, essentially, a VERY ... ah... uninformed.... person. Why is there even any discussion of this lady as presidential potential? How would she handle the crises of war, not to mention the larger long-term disaster potential of the climate shift we seem to be experiencing?

China and Japan will end up "saving the world from climate disaster", while the US, with its democratic principles lost in the political haze, will fade into historical obscurity....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.






BINGO... give the man a Cupie Doll.. well stated Pottery.

And before anyone jumps on the Political band waggon trashing either party.. this is something that has been happening for years.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Here's a Fiji wx loop I just found.



It may load....

Edit: Oops! forgot the LINK..... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Complete Update





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus - That is an interesting link. The data will be released and reviewed by other scientist and we shall discover if this new theory has any merit. I am not a scientist, but I cannot help but wonder if this new discovery is anything more than early super nova event that happened while the galaxies were more closer together and more dense. I wonder if this would produce the same results that Penrose is observing?
I will get back with you on this...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22322
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.




Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24802
A little cool down for us late this week:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 28 Today
Cloudy with a few showers. High 81F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 28 Tonight
Cloudy with a few showers. Low 69F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 29 Tomorrow
Cloudy with a few showers. High 81F. Winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 29 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 72F. Winds SE at 15 to 25 mph.
Nov 30 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Dec 1 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 2 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 3 Friday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 4 Saturday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 5 Sunday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 6 Monday
Sunshine. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 7 Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)
until their rulers start coughing up blood they are not going to do much.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4995
Quoting Skyepony:
China hints at new climate future

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13744
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Wow, Fiji's got a potential TC already? It's only November!

Weather here has continued lovely.... we were 72 degrees and clear at 5 a.m. when I got up. Hopefully this ideal weather will continue for a while, with no nasty cold snaps before Dec 15.... after that I don't mind a chill or three, since it will be almost Christmas, and a bit of cold makes the Junkanoo sweeter.... lol

Enjoy your day, all!


Oh come on Baha, you know that for you, the term "cold" is arbitrarily taken to mean anything below 65F. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all.

Wow, Fiji's got a potential TC already? It's only November!

Weather here has continued lovely.... we were 72 degrees and clear at 5 a.m. when I got up. Hopefully this ideal weather will continue for a while, with no nasty cold snaps before Dec 15.... after that I don't mind a chill or three, since it will be almost Christmas, and a bit of cold makes the Junkanoo sweeter.... lol

Enjoy your day, all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
506. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
18:00 PM FST November 28 2010
=========================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS, WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 18.7S 173.7E is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Slight warming of cloud tops over past 3 hours. Overall organization, no change. Depression 01F lies to the south of an upper outflow center under diffluent flow. CUMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to west.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with some intensification.

Potential for tropical depression 01F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46613
Quoting Skyepony:
China hints at new climate future


Nice.
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504. Skyepony (Mod)
China hints at new climate future
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 210 Comments: 39137
Quoting pcola57:

Thanks for that caneswatch, something had to give.


Yep, it was about time it happened. Hopefully good things are coming for years to come.
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Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what. You send cold air to Potts part of da world, please be around when the supposed runaway greenhouse effect occurs..:)....If anyone here digs astronomy, this certainly is worth a look. Penrose believes the Singular Big Bang Theory could be wrong, and he has data to support his hypothesis...Link


Hydrus - That is an interesting link. The data will be released and reviewed by other scientist and we shall discover if this new theory has any merit. I am not a scientist, but I cannot help but wonder if this new discovery is anything more than early super nova event that happened while the galaxies were more closer together and more dense. I wonder if this would produce the same results that Penrose is observing?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent and relevant article in Newsweek:



Hi all, Check out this.... and many other speeches... excellent webpage...

Link
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Regarding 'hits' this season the East coast and the Gulf of Mexico both got hit by major hurricanes. Earl wasn't a landfall, but it counted as a direct hit to the outer banks. Karl of course, hit the Gulf coast and was the 1st major to hit the Gulf Coast since October 2005.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting caneswatch:
Link

I hope this report is true.

Thanks for that caneswatch, something had to give.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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