Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


This one too

thx
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Alright.. I will give that a crack.. lol thx


This one too
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach:



For Ft. Lauderdale:

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Quoting BahaHurican:
stormjunkie's page of links is prolly still around....


Alright.. I will give that a crack.. lol thx
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stormjunkie's page of links is prolly still around....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Agree with you on the youngsters here. I wish more young people would just get into logic and reasoning, even if it isn't pure science. Lots of good things can happen when logical, reasoning young people are in the world....


Amen, BaHa. Amen.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, we are in the post thanksgiving hiatus... lol

looking at those maps makes me think the hurricane season of 2010 is well and truly over.... lol


well just asking.. I know ppl aren't around that much, unless something is going on that is pretty big..

Since I lost all my model pages, Im on a search for them .. yippy!
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Hey, we are in the post thanksgiving hiatus... lol

looking at those maps makes me think the hurricane season of 2010 is well and truly over.... lol
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.
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Hey.. been awhile since I came on.. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we don't need the snow for the south the cold alone will do enough damage if it goes below freezing


You're right. The 32-degree nights Florida will have (if this forecast verifies) will damage any unprotected fruit, and a hard freeze is much worse. So, I would expect daytime highs generally between 40-69 degrees from north to south, with the northern areas, as usual, colder than the southern areas.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.
Agree with you on the youngsters here. I wish more young people would just get into logic and reasoning, even if it isn't pure science. Lots of good things can happen when logical, reasoning young people are in the world....
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For West Palm Beach:

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585. eddye
jeff 9641 u said it wouldnt get cold so how cold does it show in south fla the gfs
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Quoting hydrus:
It is so cool how well some people can teach in a way that is easy to understand. At the beginning I was excellent at math, then I started having some difficulties with calculus( especially integral calculus) but some teachers make it much easier when they use certain explanations on how to get the solutions.


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus

I believe it was in 2003 when I was able to attend Stephen Hawking's delivery of his speech on The Brane Theory. I was surprised to see how many people did attend. He filled the pavilion. I really appreciated his ability to keep it in layman's terms. Math is not my forte'. My lack of higher math skills is the primary reason I do not try to return to school to strengthen my knowledge on scientific studies. I read, listen and learn from others that are able to put things in layman's terms. Einstein, Hawking, Sagan and DeGrasse did/do a very good job of expressing themselves in layman's terms. Thankfully!
It is so cool how well some people can teach in a way that is easy to understand. At the beginning I was excellent at math, then I started having some difficulties with calculus( especially integral calculus) but some teachers make it much easier when they use certain explanations on how to get the solutions.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21058
Quoting Levi32:

Once that disappears and the AO goes positive, the jet coming out of the Pacific will be greatly strengthened and the ridge will build right into the SE US.


Which it is forecast to do by mid Dec. Tx for the explanation!

Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
::starting to eyeball the goodies that have been stashed in the hurricane pantry for 6 months::: Mmmmm.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Oops, right. But then why will it be getting colder during negative PNA? One thing to consider is that the weekend outlooks don't have forecaster input. They may look different tomorrow.



A negative PNA sends cold air into Alaska, Canada, and the Pacific northwest. What's happening right now is instead of being stopped by a southeast ridge, the cold air is just continuing southeastward right into the southeast U.S. without stopping. This is because of how much air is rising over the southwest Atlantic left over from the hurricane season, which allows the cold air to come right in underneath. Once that disappears and the AO goes positive, the jet coming out of the Pacific will be greatly strengthened and the ridge will build right into the SE US.

All the seasonal models also agree with this scenario.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting Levi32:


You have it backwards. Positive PNA means southeast U.S. tends cold. And they have a great winter forecast out right now. They should not change it. The pattern won't stay this way past December after the heat from the tropics is gone.


Oops, right. But then why will it be getting colder during negative PNA? One thing to consider is that the weekend outlooks don't have forecaster input. They may look different tomorrow.

Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Typical for very negative PNA.



They may have to reconsider this!







You have it backwards. Positive PNA means southeast U.S. tends cold. And they have a great winter forecast out right now. They should not change it. The pattern won't stay this way past December after the heat from the tropics is gone.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
577. Xeloi
The Spanish Meteorological Agency (www.aemet.es) is predicting winds well over hurricane strength tonight and tomorrow in the Canary Islands. Definitely not an everyday occurrence!
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Quoting hydrus:
You lucky dog...Stephen hawking has amazed me for decades with his"cosmic genius"..I love all the sciences. But I have a strong passion for astronomy. Even considered going back to college to earn a degree in the field. It is expensive as well as challenging to say the least. I have found some more good info, but I am swamped. I will get with you as soon as possible.


Hydrus

I believe it was in 2003 when I was able to attend Stephen Hawking's delivery of his speech on The Brane Theory. I was surprised to see how many people did attend. He filled the pavilion. I really appreciated his ability to keep it in layman's terms. Math is not my forte'. My lack of higher math skills is the primary reason I do not try to return to school to strengthen my knowledge on scientific studies. I read, listen and learn from others that are able to put things in layman's terms. Einstein, Hawking, Sagan and DeGrasse did/do a very good job of expressing themselves in layman's terms. Thankfully!
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A lovely late afternoon here with clear skies.
The blob of rain approaching 60W is being held in check by westerly winds in the mid and upper levels.
A lot of moisture around and in the Trop. Atl., with the ITCZ. Big area in the Caribbean Sea, pretty stationary.

Will be back later tonight..
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Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Can you say "cold south"?


6-10 Day Temp Forecast for the United States.



8-14 Day Temp Forecast



Even though it will be cold in the east (according to the climate prediction center), the precipitation forecast is drier than average; not enough for a snowstorm in the Deep South.

6-10 Day Precip Forecast



8-14 Day Precip Forecast



That's all for now.
we don't need the snow for the south the cold alone will do enough damage if it goes below freezing
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Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Can you say "cold south"?


Typical for very negative PNA.



They may have to reconsider this!





Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting atmoaggie:
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.
any time after daytime heat maximum is reached at 3 pm expect the line to form then
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Quoting Orcasystems:
WikiLeaks website hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'

Gee I wonder what country or group would possibly want to do that???

I have just read some of the leaked stuff, featured on the BBC website.
A lot of froth and stuff, if you ask me.
No doubt, some World Figures will feel embarassed and ashamed. But no real Revelations that many people were not aware was going on.

The Media will have things to discuss for weeks.... The Talking Heads must be loving this!
A storm in a teacup?
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Can you say "cold south"?


6-10 Day Temp Forecast for the United States.



8-14 Day Temp Forecast



Even though it will be cold in the east (according to the climate prediction center), the precipitation forecast is drier than average; not enough for a snowstorm in the Deep South.

6-10 Day Precip Forecast



8-14 Day Precip Forecast



That's all for now.
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569. beell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING
ACROSS THE OZARKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST AIR WILL PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM. RETURN PWATS OF 1.7 INCHES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TO THE U60S TO L70S MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 65+F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING TO ABOUT I-20 BY EVENING. A POWERFUL
UPPER JET OF 140KTS AT 200MB CROSSES THE OZARKS INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS SO THAT BY MONDAY EVENING...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF
75-90KTS AT 500MB STREAKS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 55-65KTS OF 330K THETA E AT
850MB. MODEL MLCAPES OF 400J/KG AND MUCAPES OF 600J/KG OR BETTER
APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO OUR CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS WITH DEEP
LAYER FORCING AND A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AXIS.
CLOSER TO THE GROUND... PROGGED 0-1KM HELICITIES REACH OVER
350-450M*M/S*S...AND 0-3KM VALUES OF 400-550M*M/S*S LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLASSIC SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE NOVEMBER AND IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL ANALOG CASES OF STRONG SHEAR/WEAK CAPE
SCENARIOS. AS A LINEAR MODE OF QLCS TYPE STORMS WILL BE EVOLVING
DURING MONDAY EVENING...WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. DISCRETE CELLS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON AND BE ESPECIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION...
Jackson, MS Area Forecast Discussion
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.


Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
WikiLeaks website hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'

Gee I wonder what country or group would possibly want to do that???
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus - Yes, please do keep me updated as you are able to do so. This could give some credence to the Brane Theory as well. I was lucky enough to listen to Stephen Hawking give his talking points on this theory. This was at the The Cynthia Woods Pavilion in The Woodlands, Texas.

http://www.theanellgroup.com/thepeoplescritic/display.php?id=52

The Brane Theory is a fascinating read in itself.
You lucky dog...Stephen hawking has amazed me for decades with his"cosmic genius"..I love all the sciences. But I have a strong passion for astronomy. Even considered going back to college to earn a degree in the field. It is expensive as well as challenging to say the least. I have found some more good info, but I am swamped. I will get with you as soon as possible.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21058
Lets get a "deep south-gulf coast" snowstorm!!!!

AMEN - DOUG!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we have a hatch for severe
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Here we go again America. for the week of December 11-18, 2010:

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLOCKING HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG/OFF EACH COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

THIS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND THE US TO GROW IN SIZE/STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPRAWL SOUTHWARD INTO THE US.

WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
BITTER OR RECORD COLD HERE...IT IS FAVORABLE FOR A QUIET AND GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THIS DECLINE IN TEMPS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE BROADER UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIONARY...MODELS DO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEST-EAST JET ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING ENORMOUS SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT.
TR.92



Lets get a "deep south-gulf coast" snowstorm!!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
Quoting hydrus:
I will get back with you on this...


Hydrus - Yes, please do keep me updated as you are able to do so. This could give some credence to the Brane Theory as well. I was lucky enough to listen to Stephen Hawking give his talking points on this theory. This was at the The Cynthia Woods Pavilion in The Woodlands, Texas.

http://www.theanellgroup.com/thepeoplescritic/display.php?id=52

The Brane Theory is a fascinating read in itself.
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Windy here in North Texas:

Fort Worth, Naval Air Station 12:52 Partly Cloudy and Windy 65 41 42 S 28 G 45 29.90
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Here we go again America. for the week of December 11-18, 2010:

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLOCKING HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG/OFF EACH COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

THIS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND THE US TO GROW IN SIZE/STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPRAWL SOUTHWARD INTO THE US.

WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
BITTER OR RECORD COLD HERE...IT IS FAVORABLE FOR A QUIET AND GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THIS DECLINE IN TEMPS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE BROADER UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIONARY...MODELS DO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEST-EAST JET ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING ENORMOUS SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT.
TR.92
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Quoting pottery:

Was looking at some loops earlier.
Clouding-over here now/ Looks like rain this evening.




rain coming
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as we move into dec by 12 to 15 of dec ITCZ should finally be south of the region and the dry season begins in earnest

I hope that it hangs around here until late Jan into Feb.
Although the ground is much more saturated than it was this time last year, I am still not looking forward to this dryseason.
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556. JRRP
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Quoting DDR:
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains

Was looking at some loops earlier.
Clouding-over here now/ Looks like rain this evening.
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Quoting DDR:
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains
as we move into dec by 12 to 15 of dec ITCZ should finally be south of the region and the dry season begins in earnest
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553. DDR
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Did you see the new overlays I have for Google Earth now.. it shows the next three days of snow over 4"
ya been using them as a reference
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



latest precip run shows system nicly


Did you see the new overlays I have for Google Earth now.. it shows the next three days of snow over 4"
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511



latest precip run shows system nicly
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am looking forward to Thursday... I just checked the Toronto weather :)
well we need a good snow base with deep cold air if i'am going to sent it south
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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