Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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Very sad.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I strongly disagree with half of this statement. Yes, politics should be removed from science as much as possible--but not the other way around. Science is constantly in search of the unbiased, unvarnished truth, and for that reason, it should absolutely be the foremost authority consulted at those multiple places where both policy and policy makers are in search of direction. Absent the input of science, key decisions are generally based on little more than corporate decree or--perhaps worse--ancient superstition...and a cursory, objective glance at history will show even the dullest among us just how poorly that's worked out. IOW: science provides the only true guideposts on which the path of policy should be set.


Nea

Yes, but if the politics were kept out of the science then the voters would be aware of the science as it stands on its own merits and would push for the science being incorporated into the politics. Would today's voters allow political policy that favored a flat world mentality now? The Salem Witch Trials? Tomatoes are poisonous?
Once the politics are taken out of science then the science would help lead the politics.
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Quoting caneswatch:


You guys making the Airplane refrences. Speaking of, Leslie Nielsen has passed away today in Ft. Lauderdale.


Wow, that's a downer. He was a riot. RIP.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?


Go for it!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'


You guys making the Airplane refrences. Speaking of, Leslie Nielsen has passed away today in Ft. Lauderdale.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?
Sure, why not! What up Vet?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I was proof-reading my quote. Now no one will believe that I came up with it on my own. Dang!!


I believe you. Bwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaahaaaahaaaaa. Yeah, go ahead and post it again.





Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
There is one statement that I would add to what you said. Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.

I strongly disagree with half of this statement. Yes, politics should be removed from science as much as possible--but not the other way around. Science is constantly in search of the unbiased, unvarnished truth, and for that reason, it should absolutely be the foremost authority consulted at those multiple places where both policy and policy makers are in search of direction. Absent the input of science, key decisions are generally based on little more than corporate decree or--perhaps worse--ancient superstition...and a cursory, objective glance at history will show even the dullest among us just how poorly that's worked out. IOW: science provides the only true guideposts on which the path of policy should be set.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I was thinking of quotes yesterday, for the contest. (Smacks head for missing it tonight).


Scrooged. It's one of my all-time favorites, as well. Good one!!


Hmmmmmm. I knew I should have watched that one! That would make this trivia a little easier now.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No and no...Here is the the movie it came from:




I was proof-reading my quote. Now no one will believe that I came up with it on my own. Dang!!
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I have not given up on the movie line yet.

Here is another to work on while we work on that one:
"Get away from her, you bicht!"

Spelling has been modified for the younger audience.
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I was thinking of quotes yesterday, for the contest. (Smacks head for missing it tonight).


Scrooged. It's one of my all-time favorites, as well. Good one!!
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No and no...Here is the the movie it came from:

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.


Home Alone?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's a Wonderful Life? I know this is wrong, I just want some Rice-A-Roni too :-D


I like that movie too. Although a bit too long. The ending is the payoff.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.


Back to Will Farrel. ELF?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The one with Arnold and Sinbad?


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A Christmas flick.


It's a Wonderful Life? I know this is wrong, I just want some Rice-A-Roni too :-D
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No Vet. A case of Rice-A-Roni is heading your way.


Dang, a booby prize? lol

Should I think, West Coast, then?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A Christmas flick.


The one with Arnold and Sinbad?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Spike Lee's "Jungle Fever"?


A Christmas flick.
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No Vet. A case of Rice-A-Roni is heading your way.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Excellent. Even for someone in my age group.

And yourself?



glad to hear it!

not too shabby here either, thanks

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good. A little rain today. A little cooler weather coming this week.


yeah, looks to get colder after tomorrow here
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!


Spike Lee's "Jungle Fever"?
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Quoting tornadodude:


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow




how you doing?


Good. A little rain today. A little cooler weather coming this week.
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672. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
12:00 PM FST November 29 2010
=========================================


THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR KADAVU, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU IS NOW CANCELLED.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI IS NOW CANCELLED.


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 22.1S 177.8E is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Overall organization shows no change in the past 6 hours. Tropical Depression 01F lies to the south of 250 HPA outflow center under a diffluent flow. System also lies east of an upper trough. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to west of system.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for Tropical Depression 01F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now MODERATE.

The next tropical disturbance advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting tornadodude:


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow




how you doing?


Excellent. Even for someone in my age group.

And yourself?
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That never will happen in this country; the two are inseparably intertwined. Look at where most university's grants come from. Look at the decisions of the laughable FDA, with their ex-corporation execs in charge. etc. etc.


Sad, but true.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Matt.


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good evening, Dude.


how you doing?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Anchor Man? LOL


Lol...No. But thanks for not cheating!
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.


That never will happen in this country; the two are inseparably intertwined. Look at where most university's grants come from. Look at the decisions of the laughable FDA, with their ex-corporation execs in charge. etc. etc.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!


Anchor Man? LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone


Good evening, Dude.
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Hi Matt.
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Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Climate talks start in Cancun tomorrow..


Seed maker DuPont Co., wind-turbine manufacturer General Electric Co. and insurer Zurich Financial Services AG are devising products to help the world adapt to climate change, a potential $135 billion-a-year market by 2030.

The companies are driven in part by the failure of international efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that scientists say contribute to global warming. Discussions last year in Copenhagen yielded little progress, and officials leading more than 190 countries in talks that begin today in Cancun, Mexico, say they don’t expect to achieve a binding agreement on measures to slow the growth of emissions.


Opens with some grim tones.

The hellish vision of a world warmed by 4C within a lifetime has been set out by an international team of scientists, who say the glacial progress of the global climate change talks that restart in Mexico today makes the so-called safe limit of 2C impossible to keep. A 4C rise in the planet's temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.


Hi, Sky.

I do not blame those that do not believe this. Even so, of those that doubt, the smart ones would prepare for it any way.
Me? I believe. I have seen enough evidence that the science has merit. I have not seen the scientific evidence to cause me to reject warming and my reasoning allows me to believe that mankind plays a part in this warming. How much? I cannot say, but we do play a part in it.
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Quoting geepy86:
hey taz


Good evening. What's up with your bad self?
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660. DDR
Quoting Levi32:


Sure. Given the continued La Nina and large bundle of heat in the equatorial Atlantic, you are likely to see a wetter than normal winter, and the models agree.

Japanese:



European:



CFS:


Thanks Levi
Hopefully next years rainy season will normal.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
hey dude
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Quoting Jedkins01:




America is on the decline, its a sad state of affairs, I will never be a lemming and follow the crowd, as millions of people continue to waste their lives in America. People here have become, weak, cold, selfish, lazy and unloving/ and or uncaring. I'm not putting that label by any means on all Americans. But there certainly is an increase in the amount of these traits in people.

Even worse Americans think we have some sort of magical advantage over others because "its America". No, its the hardworking and amazing people from all races and other nations from around the world that made America great. Now we have tons of people who do nothing but really mimic leaches by declining our nation. Then they boast that America is invincible because its just America. Once again, this horrible superiority complex is making America look horrible to the rest of the world, even more so because those who blast such information only make America degrade.

The fact is, America became great, and did become the worlds super power, but if things continue the way they are, that will not last a whole lot longer, if many people don't change big time.


I can think of other words and ways to say them, but I cannot disagree with anything you said. I am glad to see there are others here that do have a thought process of their own and do not follow conventional "wisdom". Study all of the data. Do not use your own preconceptions of what the data should show. Do not cherry pick the data to arrive at your predicted outcome. This was one of Carl Sagan's biggest gripes concerning the study of science.

There is one statement that I would add to what you said. Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.
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good evening everyone
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Quoting DDR:
Evening all
Levi can you post some Of those precip forecast maps for the D-J-F period,TIA.


Sure. Given the continued La Nina and large bundle of heat in the equatorial Atlantic, you are likely to see a wetter than normal winter, and the models agree.

Japanese:



European:



CFS:

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Quoting geepy86:
hey taz



hi
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654. DDR
Evening all
Levi can you post some Of those precip forecast maps for the D-J-F period,TIA.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
hey taz
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


OK, I fixed your typo in my reply too. Now nobody will ever know. ;-)


LOL

You're a good soul. Ring, ring.
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hello all am still here this not on has march


i noted that are H storm got upgrade too 70mph
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well computer models are more of great tools rather than forecasters themselves. Without them we would still have the the ignorance of the old days of meteorology. However, forecasters must not get lazy and let the models run the show for them and not put any effort. The forecaster must use his skill in how to use the computers in order to make the best forecast. Thank God we have computers that make millions of massive math equations and solve them in lightning amount of time.


Exactly.
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Quoting RufusBaker:
Bucs fizzled just like the season did


The Fish did good tho!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.