Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
18:00 PM FST November 25 2010
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1005 hPa) located at 15.4S 166.1E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has slightly increased and remains persistent in the last 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. System lies to the east of an upper trough and along a surface trough in a moderately sheared environment.

Most global models has picked up the system and moves is slowly east with little intensification.

The potential for Tropical Depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE.
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Quoting flsky:
Happy Thanksgiving from us in ECFL, as well. Today it got down to 7 degrees at my sister's place in Spokane. I have a feeling they're faced with a pretty difficult winter. Glad I live in Florida!!


??

ECFL Eastman Cast and Forge Limited (India)

Sorry - FL of course means Florida but this is what Google turned up.

Yes - great weather here tonight in the Keys.
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Quoting flsky:
Happy Thanksgiving from us in ECFL, as well. Today it got down to 7 degrees at my sister's place in Spokane. I have a feeling they're faced with a pretty difficult winter. Glad I live in Florida!!


Hello sky! How are ya?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
And so it is late and T-Day. Happy wishes to you all.

Here is a link to some of the best Nat Geo images submitted this year. Several are weather related.

Get your forks ready. The Hurricane Season is nearly over.

Link

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Happy Thanksgiving from us in ECFL, as well. Today it got down to 7 degrees at my sister's place in Spokane. I have a feeling they're faced with a pretty difficult winter. Glad I live in Florida!!
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I don't know about "greatest", but really cool.



Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Uneventful, 2007-08? Not Here! 103.1" of snow in Kenosha, WI to set a single-season recoord, more than double our 44.0" normal. If anything, last year was uneventful. We were only 1.0" under our normal snowfall, and the wild temerature fluctuations we're used to here were nearly nonexistent. 11 degrees separated our maximum high in February from our coldest one, only 1 below zero reading for the entire winter, and, excluding Dec. 1st, 51 degrees of total temperature separation for the entire winter. Around here, that's pretty flat. Let's not repeat 07-08!
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"The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe..." This statement is arguable. The NAO doesn't cause anything, it is a statistical artifact or an index. You can say that during +NAO phase, we tend to see this type of flow regime. But, the NAO is not dynamical climate mode.
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Quoting Ameister12:
We had the first snow of the season here in Cincinnati. Very cold and wet right now.


I was totally in Cincinnati today, was snowing, freezing raining and sleeting
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Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM FST November 25 2010
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1005 HPA) located at 14.7S 164.5E is reported as slow moving. Position poor.

The potential for TD01F to develop into a tropical cyclone is moderate.
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Quoting caneswatch:
Everyone's preoccupied with Thanksgiving I see. From South Florida to everyone, have a happy Thanksgiving!


East Central FL, echoes that. Cheers!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Everyone's preoccupied with Thanksgiving I see. From South Florida to everyone, have a happy Thanksgiving!
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Quoting Grothar:
Only 52 posts since this afternoon. Pitiful! Hope everyone has Happy Thanksgiving.

Make that 84! We've got family in town.
It's a wonderful life so make the most of it.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
I'll be making pumpkin pie and cranberry bread tomorrow.
Happy dreams of turkeys escaping the cleaver!
Oh yeah, they're from Gulfport so we'll all be watching the Saints play Dallas..good times had by all.
Please drive safely and try to stuff yourselves tomorrow!
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And BTW, it's bound to stay slow in here until the Christmas rush is done.... then we get a bit of pickup once the hols break and pple have Klotzback / Gray w/ their early forecast to chew over.... plus more TCRs....

I'll be back later, when I get up. I've got a work-related project to complete, but don't want to hang around the blog too much until I'm done with that....
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
No snow here.
Nooooo!!!!!! Really???

LOL

It's been really great here, highs in the very low 80s, lows about 70.... nicely calibrated NEerly breezes, not too much night draught [that's dew to u others... lol].... great stuff. Pity it's not likely to last as long as one would like...

So we are looking at a potential nuetral to El Nino shift next season.... or perhaps a second year of la nina? given the current PDO...
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Popping in to say "Happy Thanksgiving"! Have a safe one folks! Off to work for me.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
Quoting pottery:
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you-all, from down here.
Hope everyone has a Grand One!

and by the way, it hasn;t rained for about 4 hours.....


Thank you! Send us some rain please, drought index climbing daily.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Happy Thanksgiving to all of you-all, from down here.
Hope everyone has a Grand One!

and by the way, it hasn;t rained for about 4 hours.....
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I wish it was cooler...but not that bad outside.
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We had the first snow of the season here in Cincinnati. Very cold and wet right now.
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Happy Thanksgiving......Wish it was a little cooler highs around 80 too warm...
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Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Have a great day !
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Just me, Dad and his wife. Don't forget, use half and half in your string bean casserole instead of milk.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar...how many people are you having over this year?


18. I always do the cooking on all the holidays. Not because I'm a nice guy, I just want a nice meal. How many you having.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Verry Interesting, Dayton Ohio has a Slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and a chance of snow tomorrow night. I wonder if anyone will see thundersnow from this storm?
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Quoting Xandra:
Hi everybody!

Last week I heard Rep. Bob Inglis speech at a house hearing on climate change and because
I think it's a very good and thoughtful speech I would like to share it with all of you.
Maybe you've already heard it but it's worth to be heard more than once.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!



Thanks for this. Yup, in the energy world China's fixing to whup our behinds. This is coming from somebody who works in energy and has 3 Chinese daughters.

Happy thanksgiving!
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Quoting Walshy:


Yea. The GFS has been showing this for over a week and im starting to believe it. Im in North Wilkesboro which is way north-west of Burlington. These eastern areas tho may be in the better moisture but temperature wise I don't know yet.


Hi neighbor. You'll see snow before I do - I hope ;-) Interesting AFD!
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
... Second highest winter rainfall storm total on record in Fairbanks...

As of 10am Wednesday a total of 0.94 inches of rain and freezing
rain had fallen at the Fairbanks International Airport since
Monday. This is the second greatest winter rainfall of record for
Fairbanks. The greatest winter rainfall of record in Fairbanks
occurred on January 20th 1937 when 0.99 inches of rain was
reported. These two events are the only occurrences of more than
half an inch of rain during the period from November through
March.

Cooler air is slowly moving into the region from the west and will
continue to do so through the early part of the weekend.

Below are some rainfall totals as of 10am wednesday:

McGrath... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 2.04 inches
Lake Minchumina... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .1.63 inches
Nenana... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .1.52 inches
Keystone Ridge (murphy dome)... ... ... ... 1.37 inches
Ester... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..1.16 inches
uaf West Ridge... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..0.99 inches
Tanana... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .0.99 inches
Fairbanks Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..0.94 inches
east ft Wainwright... ... ... ... ... ... ... .0.92 inches
goldstream creek... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 0.90 inches
Eielson AFB... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..0.63 inches
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"...years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern.""

Classic negative AO/NAO pattern, but the melting ice only has an indirect effect. The ice was melted by warmer temperatures in the first place, which already lowered the temperature difference between the equator and arctic. The only effect the ice had/has is that as warmer temperatures melt it, it's easier for the temperature to go up a little further as more water becomes exposed. It's a feedback reaction, but the temperature distribution caused it, not the ice.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EST Wednesday Nov 24 2010

Interestingly... the forecast Arctic and North American oscillations
are forecast to remain strongly negative late next week suggesting
cold temperatures for NC. Models currently are forecasting this
chill down. However... models in the La Nina Winters often drive
Arctic air masses too deep into the southeast United States. The coldest
regions typically are the northern rockies and northern plains with
Texas the warmest. This has been the pattern recently. Just how the
forecast negative ao/nao can offset the current strong La Nina
driven conditions will be very interesting to see play out late next
week for our region.
&&


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Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 24 Tonight
Some clouds. Low 69F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 25 Tomorrow
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 83F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.
Nov 25 Tomorrow night
Clear. Low 69F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 26 Friday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 27 Saturday
Chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 28 Sunday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 29 Monday
Scattered showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 30 Tuesday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 1 Wednesday
Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 2 Thursday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 3 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Well, I'd be surprised but I suppose it could happen. More likely it would be a wintry mix east of Burlington and all snow to the west and north.


Yea. The GFS has been showing this for over a week and im starting to believe it. Im in North Wilkesboro which is way north-west of Burlington. These eastern areas tho may be in the better moisture but temperature wise I don't know yet.
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Quoting Walshy:
Possible Winter Storm around North Carolina during the first 10 days of December on the GFS. That would cause Raleigh to get over .5inch of snow for a typical la nina season Dr. Master showed.





Well, I'd be surprised but I suppose it could happen. More likely it would be a wintry mix east of Burlington and all snow to the west and north.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Grothar...how many people are you having over this year?
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Quoting Grothar:
Hope everyone has Happy Thanksgiving.


Ditto!

Yeah, it's been slow today. Kinda nice for a change.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting Orcasystems:


Well pottery did mention he was feeling parched..and something about his armpits.. but I am trying to forget that part.. sounds like he got his wish... drive over and smack him for me will you.

Heh!?!!
Me?

I only got 2" today.
Oh, and my armpits are doing just fine, now that they are profusely Lubricated.
The problem I was having was related to the Chilly weather in Patagonia last week.
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Happy Thanksgiving to one and all!
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Winter Weather Advisories have been issued from northern Mississippi into western Tennessee and Arkansas.

Possible Winter Storm around North Carolina during the first 10 days of December on the GFS. That would cause Raleigh to get over .5inch of snow for a typical la nina season Dr. Master showed.



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Only 52 posts since this afternoon. Pitiful! Hope everyone has Happy Thanksgiving.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 25 2010
=====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1005 hPa) located at 14.3S 164.2E is reported as moving slowly. Position Poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased and remains persistent in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. System lies just west of an eastward moving upper trough and along a surface trough in a moderately sheared environment.

Most global models has picked up the system and slowly moves it east with little intensification.

The potential for Tropical Disturbance 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
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Quoting DDR:
Orca id be glad to trade you this rain for some snow :D
2 inches this afternoon

Met office...
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
in continuing its Flood Alert for Trinidad wish
to advise that most rivers in south and central
Trinidad have crested. Despite the subsiding of
rainfall activity over the last few hours, we can
still experience some overnight showers and are
also expecting to see more showers during the day
tomorrow. With this additional rainfall we can
expect that the major Caroni River to be quickly
overwhelmed given the existing and anticipated
rainfall run-off.
Riverine flooding in areas of south and central
Trinidad will continue into tomorrow with a
potential to worsen!



Reports from the Water Resources Agency indicate
that all rivers in South Trinidad are bankful.
Those in central like the Caparo are currently
overtopping. The Caroni River has reached
threshold levels.
Reports reaching us this afternoon are indicating
that the following areas have already experienced
some degree of flooding; Vega de Oropouche, North
Oropouche, Sangre Grande, Guaico Tamana, Las
Lomas#3, the Carapo Basin in the vicinity of
Todds Rd, Ravine Sable and Mamoral.



If as expected later tonight or tomorrow, the
Caroni River overtops, areas such as St. Helena,
Caroni and Kelly Village amongst others will feel
the brunt of the inundation.
Next high tide is approximately 6:40am tomorrow.
Its occurrence will slow river outflows and
prolong the flood event.


Well pottery did mention he was feeling parched..and something about his armpits.. but I am trying to forget that part.. sounds like he got his wish... drive over and smack him for me will you.
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The high was 80 degrees in Mobile, Al. Today. The high Friday will be 58 low 32. Stick around the Gulf Coast long enough, and you will get what you like!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting SuperYooper:
Marquette has a 70% chance of Ice Pellets tomorrow, which is the first time I have heard of something on a forcast like that.

Deer pellets, rabbit pellets, iron ore pellets, pellet stoves.........heard of all of them. Ice pellets is a new one to me.


Here in KC they changed the term from sleet to Ice pellets about 5 to 6 years ago, not sure of the reasoning however. I was surprised to hear it on local news back then. Never have found info on why it changed. no telling!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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