Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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Quoting hydrus:
Dont know this one.
I bet it is from a Zorro movie. Are you looking up the movies? I know the movies but not the dates.
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Sorry, guess I'm no good at this:( Ya'll have definitely not make my day. Guess I'm just not cool enough! I'm a 65 yr. old grandmother and I do pretty good just remembering my name.
You are doing good...I was being a nit-picker My bad..:)
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
My name is Inigio Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die!
Dont know this one.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Stupid is as stupid does.
Forrest Gump 1994.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You can't handle the truth!
A Few Good Men..1992.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Stupid is as stupid does.
Boy you watch a lot of movies and have a good memory. I quote GWTW from the last line said and I haven't seen that movie in years. But I can't remember what movie I saw yesterday. Here's looking at you kid.
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Stupid is as stupid does.
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You can't handle the truth!
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Sorry, guess I'm no good at this:( Ya'll have definitely not make my day. Guess I'm just not cool enough! I'm a 65 yr. old grandmother and I do pretty good just remembering my name.


LOL you're doin' OK keep 'em coming.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
My name is Inigio Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die!
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Quoting hydrus:
Taxi..1976...Robert DeNiro..DeNiro born 1943.


Correct again.

Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting hydrus:
Cool Hand Luke...1967 ..I think,.


Correct.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Bzzzzzzzzzzt. I'm sorry, but you misquoted. It's "Go ahead, make my day". Thank you for playing!

Sorry, guess I'm no good at this:( Ya'll have definitely not make my day. Guess I'm just not cool enough! I'm a 65 yr. old grandmother and I do pretty good just remembering my name.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


"You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Well, who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me? Well, I'm the only one here. Who the ---- do you think you're talkin' to?"
Taxi..1976...Robert DeNiro..DeNiro born 1943.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."
Cool Hand Luke...1967 ..I think,.
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:
Clint Eastwood, "Come on , make my day!"
Correction....It is."Go ahead...Make my day.....To Grothar...The Trinidad line is in regards to the copious amounts of rain they are receiving and is not a part of the movie lines I have put forth on this blog.....This , for instance, is a movie line from 1980....HHHHEEEEEERRRRRREEESSSS...JOHNNY!!!!..:)
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Quoting hydrus:
omg...A living breathing blogger....Or is it memorex.???


"You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Well, who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me? Well, I'm the only one here. Who the ---- do you think you're talkin' to?"

Oopsie, forgot it's supposed to be one-liners...
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting charlestonscnanny:
Clint Eastwood, "Come on , make my day!"


Bzzzzzzzzzzt. I'm sorry, but you misquoted. It's "Go ahead, make my day". Thank you for playing!
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting hydrus:
Trinidad cannot seem to catch a break...


What movie is that from?
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Quoting hydrus:
lol..None of us has been slapped with the"violation of community standards" so I think we be o.k....And thats the way it was...November-26/ 2010....I still cant believe I am typing 2010...And it is REALLY 2010....


Just think of how I feel? LOL Century after century, the same old thing.
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Clint Eastwood, "Come on , make my day!"
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Trinidad cannot seem to catch a break...
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Quoting kwgirl:
The men go for the Jaws reference and I go for GWTW, go figure. But I stayed on a weather topic:)
lol..None of us has been slapped with the"violation of community standards" so I think we be o.k....And thats the way it was...November-26/ 2010....I still cant believe I am typing 2010...And it is REALLY 2010....
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The men go for the Jaws reference and I go for GWTW, go figure. But I stayed on a weather topic:)
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:

How about from the same movie, "We need a bigger boat".
Actually, "Your gonna need a bigger boat" comes from the first ,Jaws,..My line comes from ,Jaws 2,...I should know, I have watched both of them 10 times. Why..? I just dont know...:)
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Quoting Grothar:


Since it it quiet today, how about posting some of the best one-liners from movies. Some can be a hoot.
"After all, tomorrow is another day!"
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Quoting Grothar:


So what you are saying is, 6 helpings was not a good idea?
Of course not..Turkey is great for the human body. As long as you eat the meat and not the fat...Hmmmmm...Tail end of a front in the Southern Gulf of Mexico...Hmmmmmmm......NNNNAAAHHHHHH!!!!
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Quoting charlestonscnanny:

How about from the same movie, "We need a bigger boat".


Shark, there are no sharks in these waters!
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Quoting hydrus:
Look, I,m tellin you and everybody in this room that that,s a shark. And I know what one looks like because I,ve seen one up close, and you better do something about this one, because I don,t plan to go through that hell again !

How about from the same movie, "We need a bigger boat".
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Quoting hydrus:
The "nap" you speak of is probably a result of L-Tryptophan. When eaten it is converted into serotonin within the brain. Serotonin relaxes the body and helps us sleep while we digest the huge turkey. And turkey is loaded with L-Tryptophan and many other amino acids.


So what you are saying is, 6 helpings was not a good idea?
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Quoting Grothar:



Turkey gravy with Geritol tastes quite good. I usually take a nap after the Thanksgiving meal. Unfortunately, everyone was still easting when I did it this year. Hope you all had a nice time with family and friends. Enjoy everything while you can.
Had Thanksgiving with Mom and Dad. Everything good.
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267. DDR
over 4 inches of rain at my locsation in Trinidad since 8 am
Met office,,,

FLOOD CONCERNS PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
TRINIDAD: PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT


This bulletin updates the Information Bulletin
issued at 10:00am earlier today.
A mildly resurgent Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ) is showing stubborn resilience over
Trinidad and Tobago. There is a great likelihood
it will be the mainstay of weather conditions
overnight and into the weekend.



The Northeast region of Trinidad has yet again
been the unfortunate recipient of the heavier
downpours %u2013 so far between 50 - 75
millimeters of rainfall has fallen over the last 8-10
hours. There are therefore heightened
possibilities for a repeat of riverine inundation
in these areas as the rivers become quickly
recharged.
Although swollen, the water levels in the other
rivers in south and central Trinidad remain
contained with the ability to negotiate at least
50 millimeters of rainfall run-off. Time,
rainfall intensity and river outflows are
therefore competing interests for flooding
scenarios in these locations.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1730
Quoting Grothar:


Since it it quiet today, how about posting some of the best one-liners from movies. Some can be a hoot.
Look, I,m tellin you and everybody in this room that that,s a shark. And I know what one looks like because I,ve seen one up close, and you better do something about this one, because I don,t plan to go through that hell again !
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x
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Quoting Neapolitan:
You think it's dead here? Look what's passing for breaking news this afternoon:

President Obama gets 12 stitches after being elbowed in lip during basketball game, White House says.

(Before anyone makes fun of Obama for getting hurt while playing a very physical contact sport, I'd remind them that Bush cut his lip, too...after choking on a pretzel and fainting face-first onto the floor.)

;-)

You do know how to liven things up a bit..:)
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Quoting Grothar:



Turkey gravy with Geritol tastes quite good. I usually take a nap after the Thanksgiving meal. Unfortunately, everyone was still easting when I did it this year. Hope you all had a nice time with family and friends. Enjoy everything while you can.
The "nap" you speak of is probably a result of L-Tryptophan. When eaten it is converted into serotonin within the brain. Serotonin relaxes the body and helps us sleep while we digest the huge turkey. And turkey is loaded with L-Tryptophan and many other amino acids.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I dunno, maybe just a couple bites a day. Anyone else have some wild speculation? That's been missing around here lately. ;-)


Since it it quiet today, how about posting some of the best one-liners from movies. Some can be a hoot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You think it's dead here? Look what's passing for breaking news this afternoon:

President Obama gets 12 stitches after being elbowed in lip during basketball game, White House says.

(Before anyone makes fun of Obama for getting hurt while playing a very physical contact sport, I'd remind them that Bush cut his lip, too...after choking on a pretzel and fainting face-first onto the floor.)

;-)

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting washingtonian115:
The United States has had recovery time for 2 years now.Lucky for us,but not for the rest of the basin.I think that our luck will be over next year.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The United States has had recovery time for 2 years now.Lucky for us,but not for the rest of the basin.I think that our luck will be over next year.


Hope you're wrong. I really don't want to see anymore hurricanes hitting anywhere. We have been lucky.
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Quoting hydrus:
And to you and yours as well.....And to the folks that are recovering too...You know, I read in a magazine that the older you are, the slower ya eat. So I figure it takes on average about a half hour for us younger folks to eat a meal...Then I picked up my trusty Texas Instruments calculator and to my astonishment it would take The Grother Enigma about 14 years to have a considerably large Thanksgiving Dinner....Geritol included....How....How does he do it?..Thrill this speck of humanity within the answer-less void we call a blog today with all-powerful intellectual acumen



Turkey gravy with Geritol tastes quite good. I usually take a nap after the Thanksgiving meal. Unfortunately, everyone was still easting when I did it this year. Hope you all had a nice time with family and friends. Enjoy everything while you can.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I dunno, maybe just a couple bites a day. Anyone else have some wild speculation? That's been missing around here lately. ;-)
omg...A living breathing blogger....Or is it memorex.???
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Quoting hydrus:
How....How does he do it?..


I dunno, maybe just a couple bites a day. Anyone else have some wild speculation? That's been missing around here lately. ;-)
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
This looks sorta interestin...Too far out
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Yeah, but we are still watching you. LOL

Hope your Thanksgiving was a good one.
And to you and yours as well.....And to the folks that are recovering too...You know, I read in a magazine that the older you are, the slower ya eat. So I figure it takes on average about a half hour for us younger folks to eat a meal...Then I picked up my trusty Texas Instruments calculator and to my astonishment it would take The Grother Enigma about 14 years to have a considerably large Thanksgiving Dinner....Geritol included....How....How does he do it?..Thrill this speck of humanity within the answer-less void we call a blog today with all-powerful intellectual acumen
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, hydrus, it's called recovery time. Give us a break.
The United States has had recovery time for 2 years now.Lucky for us,but not for the rest of the basin.I think that our luck will be over next year.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
0:00 AM FST November 27 2010
=========================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS REMAINS FORCE FOR FIJI.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1003 hPa) located at 16.1S 171.4E is reported as moving east-southeast at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation from surface to 500 HPA. System lies to the east of an upper trough and along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Most global models has picked up the system and moves it southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for Tropical Depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.
Where do you get this information?
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Quoting pcola57:

I am getting it to move...lots of water has done it..very uncomfortable right now though.gonna sit back and lurk for awhile though.
The last kidney stone i had, i stayed home, drink a beer(i di not drink) to urinate mot\re and took pain pills. I had 16 of these in the last 30 years.
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Quoting hydrus:
This blog is available to the whole world..Yet it can go without one post for hours at a time. I know, I know.....Its a holiday......And no invests,.....And no storms.....WWWHHHHHAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!jk...:)


Hey, hydrus, it's called recovery time. Give us a break.
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Quoting hydrus:
This blog is available to the whole world..Yet it can go without one post for hours at a time. I know, I know.....Its a holiday......And no invests,.....And no storms.....WWWHHHHHAAAAA !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!jk...:)


Yeah, but we are still watching you. LOL

Hope your Thanksgiving was a good one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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