Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
6:00 AM FST November 28 2010
=========================================


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS, WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.



A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 17.5S 172.5E is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection cooled about low level circulation center over past 12 hours. Overall organization slightly increased over past 6 hours. Depression 01F lies to the west of an upper outflow center under diffluent flow. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to the west.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it east southeastward with some intensification.

Potential for tropical depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from the Fiji Meteorological Service will be issued at around 02:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
It was sure nice to get rain here yesterday and this morning! Yesterday the Sarasota Bradenton airport picked up point 37 of rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The two blobs in the Caribbean are worth a look too Ted....


It doesn't look like there's a whole lot there at this point outside of the normal semipermanent Columbia vort max. Wind shear is 30+ knots from 12N northward.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's going on here?


The two blobs in the Caribbean are worth a look too Ted....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is not out of reach just got to make the cold front stronger he could get down to the 70's to him thats cold thats good enough
Tell ya what. You send cold air to Potts part of da world, please be around when the supposed runaway greenhouse effect occurs..:)....If anyone here digs astronomy, this certainly is worth a look. Penrose believes the Singular Big Bang Theory could be wrong, and he has data to support his hypothesis...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
What's going on here?


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he is not out of reach just got to make the cold front stronger he could get down to the 70's to him thats cold thats good enough


Set 'em to "Turbo Boost!"
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
he is not out of reach just got to make the cold front stronger he could get down to the 70's to him thats cold thats good enough
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting pottery:

Premeditated, Unwaranted, Antagonistic Behaviour.
Will probably set-off an International Incident of Gargantuan Proportions.
Go for it....
There is plenty of cold stuff up in his neck of the woods.Therefor we know he has the ammo and the authority. Prepare for cold weather. However, I do believe you are out of Keeps reach Pott...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
alright iam going to the roof to start turning the fans south

Premeditated, Unwaranted, Antagonistic Behaviour.
Will probably set-off an International Incident of Gargantuan Proportions.
Go for it....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
alright iam going to the roof to start turning the fans south
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are ya sure



think so....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
435. Skyepony (Mod)
95S

rgb loop
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Release the Hounds!
are ya sure
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quoting Bordonaro:

Our La Nina needs therapy!! According to Levi32, the pattern should modify after the 1st of the new year, I hope :O).

For now, the roller coaster ride temperatures will continue.

84F on Wed, 31F this morning and 67F tomorrow afternoon!

That's enough to zonk your internal thermostat LOL.
It sure would zonk mine.
I have enough problems when the temps swing 2 degrees....
But it probably has to do with the fact that you have had more time to evolve, than me.
And speaking of Evolution, where do we go next?
(just thought I would throw that out, as it's a slow day here...)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting pottery:

Errr, No. Thanks for the kind offer,
but I can deal with this, just fine.
Looks just a little too chilly there.

What peculiar weather you are having...

Our La Nina needs therapy!! According to Levi32, the pattern should modify after the 1st of the new year, I hope :O).

For now, the roller coaster ride temperatures will continue.

84F on Wed, 31F this morning and 67F tomorrow afternoon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Oh certainly....it will be awesome to at least have a front-loaded part of the winter that is exciting for the lower 48.
We should have a few more powerful low pressure areas. Models are showing one now. Especially the NCEP.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting Bordonaro:

Wanna trade???

Errr, No. Thanks for the kind offer,
but I can deal with this, just fine.
Looks just a little too chilly there.

What peculiar weather you are having...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Levi...I think you are right, after Christmas. But in the mean time, we will get clobbered with some weird weather..Just my harmless opinion...


Oh certainly....it will be awesome to at least have a front-loaded part of the winter that is exciting for the lower 48.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It will come. After Christmas.
Good morning Levi...I think you are right, after Christmas. But in the mean time, we will get clobbered with some weird weather..Just my harmless opinion...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
The 90-day 500mb pattern isn't that far away from a typical pattern leading up to a La Nina winter outside of the CONUS. The two things goofing it up for now are the warm Atlantic Ocean and all the blocking (negative AO). By all indications this should change and give way to a typical cold PDO winter after the new year. The wicked positive AAO in the southern hemisphere means we will be flipping over and getting rid of the blocking eventually on our side.

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Quoting hydrus:
I have to say, if that pattern pans out, Florida is in for cold and nasty weather whether it snows or not......This does not seem like a La Nina pattern. There are some similarities, but not typical la Nina..I don't know if this will link correctly. Check out the huge storm off the N.E.coast of the U.S....Link

This freaking La Nina needs a Weather Psychologist and cognitive training.

This is acting like an El Nino!

The GFS runs see-saw back in forth on North Texas' impacts.

Some runs literally blast us and others give us a glancing blow, exciting :o)
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Quoting hydrus:
I have to say, if that pattern pans out, Florida is in for cold and nasty weather whether it snows or not......This does not seem like a La Nina pattern. There are some similarities, but not typical la Nina..I dont know if this will link correctly. Check out the huge storm off the N.E.coast of the U.S....Link


It will come. After Christmas.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's a statistical miracle that the U.S. didn't get hit by a hurricane this year given the number of storms that formed. It was perfectly logical at the beginning of the year to forecast a sizable impact. Luckily we didn't get it, but JB was not hyping. Almost every single forecaster on this site was agreeing with him back in May on the potential danger.


Agreed. It also tells me that a forecast and a premonition are about equal in creditability.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Snow in FL 12/8/10? Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml
I have to say, if that pattern pans out, Florida is in for cold and nasty weather whether it snows or not......This does not seem like a La Nina pattern. There are some similarities, but not typical la Nina..I dont know if this will link correctly. Check out the huge storm off the N.E.coast of the U.S....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting pottery:
Greetngs all.
Under some milky sunshine down here, with an occasional sprinkle.
Humid and still...

Wanna trade???
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Joe Bastardi didn't get his major hurricane hits that he screamed all season long.Looks like the U.S has had a great hurricane sheild this year so that we can continue to recover from past storms.Will our luck continue into next hurricane season?.Let's hope so...but the U.S can only go so long when it comes to avoiding hurricanes....


It's a statistical miracle that the U.S. didn't get hit by a hurricane this year given the number of storms that formed. It was perfectly logical at the beginning of the year to forecast a sizable impact. Luckily we didn't get it, but JB was not hyping. Almost every single forecaster on this site was agreeing with him back in May on the potential danger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetngs all.
Under some milky sunshine down here, with an occasional sprinkle.
Humid and still...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting Jeff9641:
Snow in FL 12/8/10? Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml




Release the Hounds!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
Snow in FL 12/8/10? Interesting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Joe Bastardi didn't get his major hurricane hits that he screamed all season long.Looks like the U.S has had a great hurricane sheild this year so that we can continue to recover from past storms.Will our luck continue into next hurricane season?.Let's hope so...but the U.S can only go so long when it comes to avoiding hurricanes....
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Squawk...I dont think so..I posted a sat pic .


Well, I hope you are dreaming. Just plain don't want to see any more storms this year. Especially in the Carib. They have been whacked pretty hard this year.

And top 'O the morning to you also!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Those are interesting--in fact, the area north of Panama has hung in there for > 24 hours--but the area the NOAA is presently targeting for TC development is far to the north (33 degrees) and east (32 degrees):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


And before you pooh-pooh it too much, remember that at the end of 2005, there were three storms that formed in "hostile" conditions farther east and north that thought possible...
I know better than to "pooh pooh" anything out there. And stranger things have happened. The water looks a bit cool out there though...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting hydrus:
Not one, but two significant blobs in the Southern Caribbean Sea....

Those are interesting--in fact, the area north of Panama has hung in there for > 24 hours--but the area the NOAA is presently targeting for TC development is far to the north (33 degrees) and east (32 degrees):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


And before you pooh-pooh it too much, remember that at the end of 2005, there were three storms that formed in "hostile" conditions farther east and north that thought possible...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting SQUAWK:


You're dreaming ---- right?
Good morning Squawk...I dont think so..I posted a sat pic .
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting hydrus:
Not one, but two significant blobs in the Southern Caribbean Sea....


You're dreaming ---- right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still more record highs than record lows going on. In the past 24 hours, there have been 38 record highs and 28 record lows in the CONUS. Some remarkable contrasts: it reached 83 in Langrty, Texas, yesterday, while Crane, Texas, just 100 or so miles north, dipped to a record 17 degrees; and it fell to 28 in Paragould, Arkansas, but reached 69 in New Madrid, Missouri, which is only a couple of dozen miles northeast. Some of the lowest record lows: -19 in Climax, Colorado, and 15 in Richfield, Idaho. Some of the highest highs: 94 in Rio Grande City, Texas, and 93 in Hebbronville, Texas.

For an interesting map, check out temperature records for the past week. There's a very clear dividing line between the 765 record low or low maximums in the west and the 1,109 record high or high minimums in the east.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting xcool:
Not one, but two significant blobs in the Southern Caribbean Sea....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update





Good morning Orca..If you have a moment, look at the GEM model. It is interesting. This next system pulls together with amazing speed. And affects the the entire Eastern half of the U.S from the Mississippi River westward.Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
Complete Update





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
406. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
13:00 PM Reunion November 27 2010
========================================

a broad low level clockwise circulation centered at 0900Z near 8.5S 88.9E. Maximum winds are estimated at 15-20kt. Thanks to 0305Z ASCAT swath and MSLP is estimated at 1003 hPa. On the southern part of this circulation, trade winds inflow remains weak to moderate but is expected to improve on and after Tuesday. Within its foreseen slow southwards drift (LLCC is expected near 15S 87E on Tuesday), this low should undergo a favorable environment under the upper level ridge (decreasing wind shear and rather favorable upper level divergence). It should therefore deepen significantly.

SST potential remains good for development within the next 5 days, despite its decreasing towards the south.

Available models (CEP, ARP, ALA, UKMO) analyze this low and deepen it at a slow rate up to monday and then more clearly.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Saturday: POOR
Sunday: FAIR
Monday: GOOD
Tuesday: GOOD
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
0:00 AM FST November 28 2010
=========================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1003 hPa) located at 16.9S 174.2E is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has increased and organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 500 HPA. Tropical Depression 01F lies in a region of low to moderate shear and under an upper diffluent region.

Most global models has picked up the system and are slowly moving it southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for tropical depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
Quoting lightningbolt73:
Buele? Bueler? bueler?r
1986
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
the southern pacific has been quiet recently charts are indicating a change next week big time storm south of new zealand https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_tropswpac&dtg=2010112700%u220 F =sgwvht%u03C4=180&set=SeaState it might be time to plan a central american surf trip
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4863
402. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
18:00 PM FST November 27 2010
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1002 hPa) located at 16.6S 172.5E is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has significantly increased and organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Depression 01F lies in a region of weak vertical wind shear and under an upper diffluent region.

A rapid deepening of this system is expected in the next 24-36 hours. Most global models are moving it east southeastward.

The potential for Tropical Depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

The next tropical disturbance advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46134
401. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
down goes boise... thank goodness wont have to hear how amazingly good they are every week for another year


But you'll have to hear about another orange & blue team (Auburn) being so good. If you want my opinion, it's better than hearing how good Florida was.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
down goes boise... thank goodness wont have to hear how amazingly good they are every week for another year
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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