Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

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Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Nice hat (mefechter)
The snow just keeps on coming.
Nice hat
Snow Drifts (funhawg)
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.
Snow Drifts

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499. pcola57
4:45 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:
Link

I hope this report is true.

Thanks for that caneswatch, something had to give.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
498. caneswatch
3:24 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Link

I hope this report is true.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
497. Neapolitan
3:20 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Excellent and relevant article in Newsweek:

To those who are convinced that the science of global warming is sound, as well as to those on the fence, the refusal of climate scientists to attribute any single episode of extreme weather to greenhouse-induced climate change has been either exasperating … or suspicious.

You mean you guys can’t definitely say human-caused climate change is why 135 daily rainfall records were broken along the East Coast during September’s deluges (Wilmington, N.C.: 19.7 inches over three days)? You can’t say climate change is why 2010 is eclipsing 1998 as the hottest year on record, or why in August an ice island four times the size of Manhattan broke off from a Greenland glacier? How about why 2000–09 was the warmest decade on record, that 153 of the 1,218 U.S. weather stations recorded their hottest summer since 1895, why Moscow suffered a once-in-centuries heat wave this summer, or why one fifth of Pakistan flooded?

In short, no. No matter how bizarre the weather, the mantra of climatologists has been that one cannot attribute any single event to changing climate. All science can do is conclude that extreme events are getting more likely as humankind pumps more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

“Natural causes alone can’t explain any of these...you need a large human contribution.”


Read the whole article here.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
496. caneswatch
2:53 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The "we" I speak of were those who felt that high pressure over the south would steer systems south and east of the US and because so many formed way out in the Atlantic there would be ample time for a trough to pick them up. We fought StormW and Co who continued to forecast a pattern change any day while many sat back and passively accepted what was being said. I do admit, we were surprised at the overall activity, but 3 or 4 of those were borderline Tropical Storms at best.


Actually, it was just the troughs that did the job. Florida was spared by just 350 miles from Earl, but North Carolina got hurricane force winds from him, and that was a close call.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
495. hydrus
2:51 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
494. Orcasystems
2:50 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Complete Update





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
493. hydrus
2:40 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
MEX MOS CONDITIONAL PROB OF FREEZING PRECIP (%)

Don't see any chance of frozen in the SE for a week on this one.
Of course the one I wanted is updating at the moment.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
492. hydrus
2:38 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
MEX MOS CONDITIONAL PROB OF FREEZING PRECIP (%)

Don't see any chance of frozen in the SE for a week on this one.
Cool model.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
491. hydrus
2:37 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That one works. Now, how do I read it?
Hold on. I got a beeter one...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
490. DontAnnoyMe
2:36 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
MEX MOS CONDITIONAL PROB OF FREEZING PRECIP (%)

Don't see any chance of frozen in the SE for a week on this one.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
489. DontAnnoyMe
2:30 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
This model is a newbie..


That one works. Now, how do I read it?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
488. DontAnnoyMe
2:23 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Happy Holiday's to all at the WU! Have to run. The water's goin' down. It's a mighty tight squeeze!


Hey hey
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
486. hydrus
2:19 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
,
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
485. hydrus
2:13 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not working for me. Kill the suspense - will it snow in FL?
This model is a newbie...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
484. hydrus
2:08 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not working for me. Kill the suspense - will it snow in FL?
Give me a sec, and let me try a different site...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
483. DontAnnoyMe
2:07 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Check this out (If it works)..


Not working for me. Kill the suspense - will it snow in FL?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
482. DontAnnoyMe
2:02 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
So WE give a DAM.....


That's nice. Some DONT give a DAM :-|
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
481. DontAnnoyMe
2:01 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening DontAnnoyMe.....Can I please just Type D.A.M.?...lol


DAM is fine. Or Dont, either.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
480. hydrus
1:55 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


We refer to him as DAM.
So WE give a DAM.....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
479. PSLFLCaneVet
1:54 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening DontAnnoyMe.....Can I please just Type D.A.M.?...lol


We refer to him as DAM.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
478. hydrus
1:51 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very cold wx pattern appears to wanna take shape over the next 10 to 12 days and yes this appears to include with this next outbreak.
Jeff, if you have a moment, read post#460.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
475. hydrus
1:45 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Good evening, unmasked one - and everyone else.
Good evening DontAnnoyMe.....Can I please just Type D.A.M.?...lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
474. PSLFLCaneVet
1:45 AM GMT on November 28, 2010




Nice! You both are Rascals! LOL
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
473. DontAnnoyMe
1:42 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


You have unmasked me! Nice!

It's all good.


Good evening, unmasked one - and everyone else.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
472. hydrus
1:36 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



No sweat H. It was Alex.
lol...H...Wat up homi.? Did I misspell homi?lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
471. PSLFLCaneVet
1:34 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I am going strictly by memory here. But I do seem to remember you guys stating that the Gulf Coast should be free of any landfalls. Not downplaying Karl by any stretch of the imagination, but the U.S. Gulf Coast was not hit at all. One could argue Humberto. And a T.D.did hit Texas. I forgot the Cat-2 in June(my bad).



No sweat H. It was Alex.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
470. hydrus
1:29 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I take no offense either and also konw the horrors of a hit, since I have been living in Southern Louisiana since 1957. Myself, and like minded bloggers did not buy into the preseason forecasts of a major East Coast hit of 50% and a Gulf Coast major hit at 49%. We (the Crew) saw a Pattern in mid July. Because of the record SST in the Atlantic, they spun up quickly and recurved.
I am going strictly by memory here. But I do seem to remember you guys stating that the Gulf Coast should be free of any landfalls. Not downplaying Karl by any stretch of the imagination, but the U.S. Gulf Coast was not hit at all. One could argue Humberto. And a T.D.did hit Texas. I forgot Alex, the Cat-2 in June(my bad).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
469. PSLFLCaneVet
1:25 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I take no offense either and also konw the horrors of a hit, since I have been living in Southern Louisiana since 1957. Myself, and like minded bloggers did not buy into the preseason forecasts of a major East Coast hit of 50% and a Gulf Coast major hit at 49%. We (the Crew) saw a Pattern in mid July. Because of the record SST in the Atlantic, they spun up quickly and recurved.



Kerry, so far I have not seen a reason to discount your forecast.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
467. PSLFLCaneVet
1:22 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I added on to the last post about Hurricane David. And changed it to Port St Lucie..:)


You have unmasked me! Nice!

It's all good.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
466. hydrus
1:17 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Not a problem, I agree!
I added on to the last post about Hurricane David. And changed it to Port St Lucie..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
465. PSLFLCaneVet
1:16 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
I read you loud and clear. If you have lived in Pensacola since 1985, you have certainly been through your share of storms and hurricanes. I took no offense and never do. I just like it when people back up there statements.



Not a problem, I agree!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
464. hydrus
1:10 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

My handle shows where I have lived, for 25 years. I was referring to the the dissecting of posts, and forecasts. I meant no offense. CaneVet, is not a fantasy. More of a nightmare.
I read you loud and clear. If you have lived in Port St Lucie since 1985, you have certainly been through your share of storms and hurricanes. I took no offense and never do. I just like it when people back up there statements. I was not far from where you are when Hurricane David hit in 1979. It was pretty bad.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
463. PSLFLCaneVet
1:02 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying you have never been through a hurricane? If so, be grateful. Not a pi^%$ng match, Kerry said his crew said back in July that the U.S. would be spared any direct hits from hurricanes. I wanted the post # so I could see for myself.

My handle shows where I have lived, for 25 years. I was referring to the the dissecting of posts, and forecasts. I meant no offense. CaneVet, is not a fantasy. More of a nightmare.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
462. hydrus
12:57 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening, my friend.

Is this a pxxxing contest now? I have not been through the aftermath of any season. Interesting.
Are you saying you have never been through a hurricane? If so, be grateful. Not a pi^%$ng match, Kerry said his crew said back in July that the U.S. would be spared any direct hits from hurricanes. I wanted the post # so I could see for myself.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
461. PSLFLCaneVet
12:52 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
What number post was it? The"all clear" one back in July?


Good evening, my friend.

Is this a pxxxing contest now? I have not been through the aftermath of any season, on WU. Interesting.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
460. hydrus
12:49 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
GFS stills shows snow in N FL in 11 days.
Check this out (If it works)...Link.....Be sure to click the image so it loops...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
459. hydrus
12:27 AM GMT on November 28, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We forecasted the all clear back in July after careful analysis.
What number post was it? The"all clear" one back in July?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22582
457. PensacolaDoug
11:47 PM GMT on November 27, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
GFS stills shows snow in N FL in 11 days.



Who let the dogs out!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
456. CybrTeddy
11:18 PM GMT on November 27, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
GFS stills shows snow in N FL in 11 days.


Link? That would be pretty awesome.. even though its 11 days out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
455. caneswatch
11:18 PM GMT on November 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


As I remember it, most of this site was convinced the season was a bust after July showed no promise. That's the only reason calls came for no hits on the United States. No predictions of 19 named storms and no hurricane hits on the U.S. came from anyone.


Levi, you're talking to a troll who thinks highly of himself, and there is no "we" that he speaks of. As for myself, I thought that this wasn't going to be a bust because July is usually a quiet month before it ramps up in August and September. As for no US landfalls, no one could have called that months before the huge hurricanes like Earl and Igor started to form. No one has that much time to tell that this was going to be a trough-happy season. And you're right, those calls only came because of a weak July, which July is not really a storm-producing month.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
453. Levi32
11:07 PM GMT on November 27, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We forecasted the all clear back in July after careful analysis.


As I remember it, most of this site was convinced the season was a bust after July showed no promise. That's the only reason calls came for no hits on the United States. No predictions of 19 named storms and no hurricane hits on the U.S. came from anyone.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
452. washingtonian115
10:42 PM GMT on November 27, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


It's a statistical miracle that the U.S. didn't get hit by a hurricane this year given the number of storms that formed. It was perfectly logical at the beginning of the year to forecast a sizable impact. Luckily we didn't get it, but JB was not hyping. Almost every single forecaster on this site was agreeing with him back in May on the potential danger.
Thats one thing I give Joe.B credit for this year.He didn't hype the situation he more shall we say emphasized it.The extra recovery time though was wonderful for people that were affected by past storms.And I'll say that it would be a miricle the united states avoided hurricane land falls next year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17794
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Set 'em to "Turbo Boost!"

heheheh
you guys can keep all the chilly stuff to yourselves.
(please??)
Lovely evening here, so I am going to join the Lady Pott with a glass of wine on the deck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
449. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
6:00 AM FST November 28 2010
=========================================


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS, WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.



A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 17.5S 172.5E is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection cooled about low level circulation center over past 12 hours. Overall organization slightly increased over past 6 hours. Depression 01F lies to the west of an upper outflow center under diffluent flow. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to the west.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it east southeastward with some intensification.

Potential for tropical depression 01F to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from the Fiji Meteorological Service will be issued at around 02:30 AM UTC..
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