Colombia rainy season floods kill 136

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on November 22, 2010

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Colombia is experiencing its worst rainy season in at least 30 years, with at least 136 deaths over the past few months and 1.3 million people affected by flooding. Heavy rains in the capital of Bogota on Wednesday brought the Bogota River to its highest level in 30 years, and more rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model (Figure 2)--calls for an additional 3 - 6 inches (75 - 150 mm) in the Bogota region over the coming week.


Figure 1. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of 300 - 400 mm (12 - 16 inches) has fallen near Bogota. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually peaks in October, then gradually wanes in November and December. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. This year is a La Niña year, which means there is a large region of colder than average water off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Colder than average water off the Pacific coast enhances rainfall over Colombia, and this year's moderate-strength La Niña is largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast from the GFS model predicts that Bogota may see another 75 - 150 mm (3 - 6 inches) during the coming week. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
See the recent article Mercury Elevated in Fish and Waters Throughout Indiana? Mercury falling in the rain at too high a levels, mainly from emissions from coal burning power plants. US tax payers pay roughly $1.4 billion a year for coal subsidies. We are doing this to Appalachia to poison our fish, ourselves..even though the majority of Americans would rather end mountaintop removal.

Interestingly, I learned recently that the town of Esquel in the foothills of the Andes in Argentina, voted in a referendum that sought to find public approval for a Gold mine just outside the town. There is a large deposit within a large mountain there.
The mine would have effectively removed a large mountain, (visible from the town) and used Cyanide (typical in gold extraction) in large quantities.

In spite of the need for an improved economy in the area, the population voted 70% against the mine.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
it should be warmer than average overall this winter in the south and it would keep gulf warmer too. mayby a shot of chill here and there but nothing like a year ago.
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91. Skyepony (Mod)
See the recent article Mercury Elevated in Fish and Waters Throughout Indiana? Mercury falling in the rain at too high a levels, mainly from emissions from coal burning power plants. US tax payers pay roughly $1.4 billion a year for coal subsidies. We are doing this to Appalachia to poison our fish, ourselves..even though the majority of Americans would rather end mountaintop removal.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
China was lat in accepting it and the US was given the option of going back to higher emissions even though our manufacturing was shrinking and becoming cleaner.

Still we are in a worse position now down the road because nothing was done. China after dragging their heels on regulation pumped VAST amounts of money and HUGE subsidies into green technology production while the oil companies and the like were able to keep people arguing here by fooling them into thinking the science was flawed.

We really missed an opportunity to get in on the ground floor so to speak as our climate science was some of the most advanced int he world.

Good post!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
Quoting Motoko:
One issue in the climate debate that seems to take a back seat in the discussion is the problem with any political agreement to limit air contaminants. The Kyoto Accord restricted developed countries like the US and Europe while allowing China, India (2 of the 3 biggest polluters), and other undeveloped countries to increase their already overwhelming pollution up to 20 percent. Huh??? Developed countries must destroy their economies trying to meet Kyoto standards while China and India can pollute to their hearts content. This does not make sense.

The rules MUST apply to everyone, or they will apply to no one. Any accord that does not adhere to this principle is doomed to failure. Just mho.

Good post.
Unfortunately, many "developed" countries desperately need India, China etc., to become wealthy so that their cash flows into the "Developed" countries, who presently have the monopoly on most goods and services required by the "developing" ones.

It's an Economic issue, along with issues of Polutants of all types.

To prevent India and China from developing their consumer markets will deal the final card to the economies of the First World which are dependent on the developing economies for their future sales.

It's a conundrum....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
One issue in the climate debate that seems to take a back seat in the discussion is the problem with any political agreement to limit air contaminants. The Kyoto Accord restricted developed countries like the US and Europe while allowing China, India (2 of the 3 biggest polluters), and other undeveloped countries to increase their already overwhelming pollution up to 20 percent. Huh??? Developed countries must destroy their economies trying to meet Kyoto standards while China and India can pollute to their hearts content. This does not make sense.

The rules MUST apply to everyone, or they will apply to no one. Any accord that does not adhere to this principle is doomed to failure. Just mho.
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
I was off by 17 minutes...
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need to keep an eye on these cells



Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
83. Skyepony (Mod)
ExxonMobil CEO has been saying since 2006 that CO2 emissions is causing climate change & we should be clanging policies to reduce greenhouse emissions.

That year they started pulling away from the company that put out all the info smoking wasn't bad for you. They had spent like $2 million with them the previous year. The next year..

In its 2007 Corporate Citizenship Report, [Exxon] stated: "In 2008 we will discontinue contributions to several public policy groups whose position on climate change could divert attention from the important discussion on how the world will secure energy required for economic growth in an environmentally responsible manner."

Exxon also gave reassurances last year that it had no funding links with the sceptics' biggest annual conference, the International Conference on Climate Change. But a list published by Exxon this month of its "2009 worldwide contributions and investments" revealed that it had given four cosponsors of the New York event a total of $275,000. It also gave $1 million to 20 other sceptic groups.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
It is time to move beyond the believer and denier camps. Proving who is right is useless when who is the most effective is what is important. No thoughtful or realistic climate scientist is arguing to lower population or decrease GDP and production. No thoughtful conservative/anti-alarmist is arguing against cleaner energy, green jobs, or freedom from fossil fuel cartels.

Both sides should be fighting for those three things.

People in the climate change/denier camps are just arguing to be "right" in the court of public opinion. Do you see how useless that is? Have you noticed that decision makers don't care?

Regardless of the source, the climate is variable and that is causing stress on our infrastructure. Planning for drought and flood protection both require water storage. Water storage projects help agriculture and a growing population with their water supply demands. Both industrialists and environmentalists should be fighting FOR these kinds of projects that make our economy and environment more resilient.

There are ways to reach common goals without sinking into "I am right" camps and putting fingers in your ears.

The problem, as has been explained so many times, is that any action taken to mitigate A/GW is almost completely dependent on "proving who is right". There are policymakers in Washington, fed by fossil fuel industries with nearly bottomless pockets, who have managed to convince millions that their non-science viewpoints are "right", and that in turn has led to a huge pushback against doing anything at all. Knowing that, it's not nearly enough to say "proving who is right is useless"; until/unless science is given due credit by the public, we'll continue to keep jamming the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, period. Yes, each of us should do what we can to effect change, but not all of us are capable of creating alternate sources of energy or inventing green tech, so leaders need to emerge and be granted credibility, not ridicule.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


You could be like Reed Timmer and sale your stormchaser photos to the media. I believe that's how he makes his money. Speaking of stormchasing it looks like you won't have to go far today. I suspect you will have more severe wx events this winter than normal due to the La Nina.


It's tough to sell footage with so many people out there chasing, but the northern plains and southern Canada storms have far less people chasing them (usually) so I think that is where the money is.

Idk if I will chase today, storms moving around 50mph, about 5 hours or so to my north west. might wait to see what develops further west and south west
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting Jeff9641:


Great post T-Dude!


Thanks Jeff!


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC057-111-ILC067-071-221830-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0176.101122T1757Z-101122T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1157 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST.

* AT 1155 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY NEAR MONTROSE...OR NEAR NAUVOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
NIOTA AND FORT MADISON AROUND 1205 PM CST...
COLUSA AROUND 1210 PM CST...
DALLAS CITY AROUND 1215 PM CST...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF DISCO AROUND 1220 PM CST...
CARMAN...TERRE HAUTE...6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GULF PORT AND 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON AROUND 1225 PM CST...
STRONGHURST AROUND 1230 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 9112 4068 9082 4045 9137 4058 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 231DEG 42KT 4053 9136
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
SHEETS





Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
if anyone have an answer hold off till like 4pm I have to go to class
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting biff4ugo:
P.S. Tornado

Nice article!


Thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
hey guys anyone have a long range temp forecast for the southern US and GOM and possible if there is one for the NW Caeribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting biff4ugo:
It is time to move beyond the believer and denier camps. Proving who is right is useless when who is the most effective is what is important. No thoughtful or realistic climate scientist is arguing to lower population or decrease GDP and production. No thoughtful conservative/anti-alarmist is arguing against cleaner energy, green jobs, or freedom from fossil fuel cartels.

Both sides should be fighting for those three things.

People in the climate change/denier camps are just arguing to be "right" in the court of public opinion. Do you see how useless that is? Have you noticed that decision makers don't care?

Regardless of the source, the climate is variable and that is causing stress on our infrastructure. Planning for drought and flood protection both require water storage. Water storage projects help agriculture and a growing population with their water supply demands. Both industrialists and environmentalists should be fighting FOR these kinds of projects that make our economy and environment more resilient.

There are ways to reach common goals without sinking into "I am right" camps and putting fingers in your ears.
Spot on!!! Which means, of course, that someone from both sides will be on in about 6 minutes with a short explanation of why you are entriely wrong. 5...4...3...
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Good afternoon.
Interesting notes on the weather in Columbia re. heavy rainfall.
Flew from Panama City to Trinidad yesterday, and marvelled at the fantastic clouds we saw, all around.
I wondered why the aircraft was weaving around so much, giving a great views of incredible Anvil Clouds looming above us. We were at 30,000 ft.

Had a good view of what I think were the mountains of Merida near the Columbian border of Venezuela. Snow capped and Magnificent.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
P.S. Tornado

Nice article!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is time to move beyond the believer and denier camps. Proving who is right is useless when who is the most effective is what is important. No thoughtful or realistic climate scientist is arguing to lower population or decrease GDP and production. No thoughtful conservative/anti-alarmist is arguing against cleaner energy, green jobs, or freedom from fossil fuel cartels.

Both sides should be fighting for those three things.

People in the climate change/denier camps are just arguing to be "right" in the court of public opinion. Do you see how useless that is? Have you noticed that decision makers don't care?

Regardless of the source, the climate is variable and that is causing stress on our infrastructure. Planning for drought and flood protection both require water storage. Water storage projects help agriculture and a growing population with their water supply demands. Both industrialists and environmentalists should be fighting FOR these kinds of projects that make our economy and environment more resilient.

There are ways to reach common goals without sinking into "I am right" camps and putting fingers in your ears.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Epoch" rain event for interior Alaska

The majority of Alaska is covered in freezing rain advisories, winter storm warnings, and ice storm warnings at this time. This could also potentially be the biggest winter rainfall that Fairbanks has seen in decades.

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Quoting mossyhead:
There is a blog on here just for climate change. So if you want to say anything on climate change, go to it. Just click on the Climate Change category under resources and on there to the right is 2 blogs.


Thanks for the tip, sheriff...
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF QUINCY ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FROM ERN IA INTO NRN MO.
AIR MASS IS NOW MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES IN PLACE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW
MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO WI AND EWD NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN
IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.


Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
There is a blog on here just for climate change. So if you want to say anything on climate change, go to it. Just click on the Climate Change category under resources and on there to the right is 2 blogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jb410:


That seems like it would be an interesting and useful combination...


yeah, would be good for research as well as on air
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:


Well neither at the moment, Im currently taking this year off from school and focusing on storm chasing.

I did however go to Purdue last year for meteorology and public relations


That seems like it would be an interesting and useful combination...
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Your proposal is a set-up for failure--or even for catastrophe. By demanding that nothing be done until it's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, you've set an impossible goal.

At any rate, who's doubt are you talking about? Most climate scientists are convinced of it, and their number is growing every day. On the other end of the spectrum, the CEO of ExxonMobil (for instance), is never going to say, "You know, I was wrong all these years; we have been screwing things up, and we need to stop." If we wait for him to be convinced beyond all doubt, we'll still be sitting here warming the globe until the North Pole is a sauna...


Your point is well taken. I was mainly reiterating the fact that much of this debate has a political agenda behind it, in addition to whatever the truth may be. I just want the debate to stand on its own merits, not on political agendas.
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Quoting jb410:


Good article, but please set me straight - are you meteorology or journalism, or a combination of the two?


Well neither at the moment, Im currently taking this year off from school and focusing on storm chasing.

I did however go to Purdue last year for meteorology and public relations
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:
If y'all are interested, here is my latest article for the Evansville Examiner, link


Good article, but please set me straight - are you meteorology or journalism, or a combination of the two?
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Quoting jb410:
How can we know that man is causing climatic change? Until that is proven beyond a doubt, we should give ourselves the benefit of the doubt. I am all for using energy wisely and conservatively, and I am all for finding cleaner sources. However, until man's role in this matter is established, I am not for placating the jealous peoples of the third world by lowering our standard of living, for no reason other than "misery loves company."

Your proposal is a set-up for failure--or even for catastrophe. By demanding that nothing be done until it's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, you've set an impossible goal.

At any rate, who's doubt are you talking about? Most climate scientists are convinced of it, and their number is growing every day. On the other end of the spectrum, the CEO of ExxonMobil (for instance), is never going to say, "You know, I was wrong all these years; we have been screwing things up, and we need to stop." If we wait for him to be convinced beyond all doubt, we'll still be sitting here warming the globe until the North Pole is a sauna...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221650Z - 221815Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND
WRN IL AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW AND CNTRL/NE MO IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO
750 J/KG RANGE FROM NEAR JOPLIN MO NNEWD TO AROUND DAVENPORT IA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
FOCUSING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
CALCULATED AT 50 TO 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Your seriously worried that the goverment is going to outlaw gardening? Really?


I would not put anything past this government. Anything at all.
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If y'all are interested, here is my latest article for the Evansville Examiner, link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting JFLORIDA:
jb410 id look into that before i trusted that source. Someone may be spreading disinformation to keep it form passing.


Admitedly, it was sent via e-mail by a friend. I will certainly double check.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
I thin the ONLY thing interesting has been climate posts here lately.

There usually isnt dabate on GW here at all - its either facutal linked climate information or political opinion linked to amateur blogs.
Very true!
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Quoting jb410:
How about this...

Your own private garden, under the control of Big Brother...

Link


Your seriously worried that the goverment is going to outlaw gardening? Really?
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How about this...

Your own private garden, under the control of Big Brother...

Link
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Oh good, I'm just in time for another AGW debate...yawn
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Quoting jb410:


I agree completely. As long as the standard of living is maintained / improved.

Your tax dollars at work.:)

Link
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.