Nothing immediately coming to follow Tammy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:55 PM GMT on October 06, 2005

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Tammy
Tammy is still generating heavy rains of up to 1/2 inch per hour in North Carolina and South Carolina, but this storm has done its worst and no longer has any spin. A portion of the storm may pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico Friday, but no tropical storm development is expected, due to wind shear from an upper level low in the Gulf. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast Friday, pulling the remains of Tammy northward up the front, drenching the entire East Coast. Rainfall amounts from Tammy will generally be in the 1 - 3 inch range along the coast, and 3 - 6 inches in the Appalachians, creating some localized flooding problems.

Stan Jr.
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan yesterday is now a 1004 mb low pressure system just north of the western tip of Cuba. This system has just a small area of deep convection to the southeast of the center. Upper-level outflow is apparent to the southeast, but nowhere else. Wind shear of about 10 knots from westerly upper-level winds is pushing the convection away from the center. Observations from Cuban radar confirm that this a poorly organized system with a few bands of heavy showers over western Cuba.

This system is expected to push northward the next two days, spreading heavy rain and high winds over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula. Development into a tropical depression is not likely, given the system's current disorganized state. This system no longer looks like a big rain-producer for Florida, and some of the flood watches posted for the state may be dropped later today if the system does not gain any more strength. Stan Jr. will continue to the northeast and dump another 1 -2 inches of rain on the areas already affected by Tropical Storm Tammy.


Figure 1. Model tracks for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan still stands at 162, including 62 deaths in El Salvador, 79 in Guatemala, and 21 in Nicaragua, Mexico, and Honduras. The remnants of Stan are no longer dumping heavy rain on the area, and only scattered thunderstorms are expected in the disaster area the next five days.


Figure 2. Stan's observed rainfall from the NASA TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts as high as 400 mm (16 inches) were observed along the coast.

Stan III?
The remants of Stan have formed a large area of intense convection near the Mexican coast by Puerto Vallarta, and winds of 40 - 50 mph have been observed in association with this system. However, no surface circulation has been observed yet, and this is not quite yet a tropical storm. This system will track northwestward over the next few days and threaten Baja California and the mainland Mexican coast.

Vince?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 43W, about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, it looking more ragged this afternoon. It is not expected to become a tropical depression today. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. A more northwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.


Figure 3. Model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Plenty of low pressure and light wind shear continue to characterize the rest of the tropics, and we need to keep a watchful eye for new suspect areas that may crop up.

Jeff Masters

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341. Ezzz
1:38 AM GMT on October 08, 2005
Well looks like the American Hurricane Season is winding up maybe 2 or 3 more Tropical Storms or stronger to form. America needs another 3 tropical storms/hurricanes to form in the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico and they will have to name the third hurricane using the Greek Alphabet names for the Hurricane names (Alpha, Theta, Omega etc.). THE AUSTRALIAN CYCLONE (or Hurricane for you Americans) SEASON STARTS ON THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER!!! :D
340. oriondarkwood
2:21 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
guygee,

Read your email
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
339. guygee
2:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
rxse7en - LOL! I know the feeling, and try the "hair of the dog" the next morning by chugging the leftover 3/4 full beer can full of cig butts.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
338. FLCrackerGirl
2:15 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
NEW BLOG UP.
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 587
337. rxse7en
2:14 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
ugh...please don't use the "T" word (tequila) around here. Some of us--like me, right now, for instance--get the immediate "warm spits" and begin to feel ill. :D

"How about a greasy, pork sandwich served in a dirty ashtray..."
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
336. gbreezegirl
2:13 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
New post!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
335. palmbeacher
2:07 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Morning all, I can see the sun!! Was duck weather this morning.
334. guygee
2:00 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
orion - Whooee, that is the hard stuff. Many years ago when I lived in Houston I was befriended by a couple that was in the process of drinking up their inheritence. They drank scotch morning, noon and night, the good stuff. They also insisted I join them, and I actually developed a taste for it, although it took me awhile.

Many years later, after "teetotaling" for awhile, I'm up for an occasional social beer or two, and I even still hanker for Tequila, sometimes, when the Moon is full. But at my age, those days of playing cards and passing around the bottle of Jack are long gone...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
333. weatherdude65
1:54 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
anything that spins up south of cuba would more than likely head to the east or ENE
332. oriondarkwood
1:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
guygee,

I don't know what the Doctor drinks, but me. I rarely drink beer. I am a scotch and whiskey man along with rum and wine (not mixed together)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
331. weatherdude65
1:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
morning all.....
330. guygee
1:47 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Actual Stan Jr. seems to have sheared out into the Gulf Upper Low, but there is still some convection and somethin trying to form south of Cuba. Whatver forms there, I am guessing it is too late to affect the U.S.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
329. guygee
1:44 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
oriondarkwood "pound a few back". Is that as in chugging a few brews, or is that the harder stuff?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
328. gbreezegirl
1:43 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
What is going on with Stan Jr. this morning?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
327. gbreezegirl
1:42 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Well ENE would be a welcome relief. Would like to see the sunshine this weekend! Have relatives coming tonight.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
326. oriondarkwood
1:40 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
gbreezegirl,

Yea but the way this season has been I wouldn't be suprised if the good Doctor hasn't taken a long weekend to pound a few back.. I know I would be doing if I was in his shoes during this hurricane season..
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
325. guygee
1:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
gbreezegirl - I think you'll see her heading ENE then cross near Panama City/Big Bend and head more NE from there. I'm expecting her to help pull a dryline "front" across FL. Peninsula today, and hope to see some real sun first time in days by this afternoon.

If Tammy swirl drifts very far south then I would be a bit more worried, but that seems very low probability.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
324. gbreezegirl
1:34 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Should be about time for Dr. Masters to update huh?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
323. oriondarkwood
1:33 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
jimmiek,

I like to go to Holland one day (and not for the usual reasons.. okay make I will stop in the local "coffee" house). How was it (or is it if you still there)?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
322. oriondarkwood
1:31 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
gbreezegirl,

Tammy's trying to spin below you.. tell her to stop (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
321. gbreezegirl
1:27 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Morning everyone! Tammy is trying to spin right below me. Agggghhhh!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
320. guygee
1:19 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Interesting how Tammy lower-level vortex decoupled from its upper-level support and ended up back in the Gulf, noticed her spinning there last night. Now nicely phased with former Gulf ULL and "Tammy-Yucastan" ULH to the north and east. That ULH is huge, although very longitudinal off the the East Coast, flow extends all the way to north of Lesser Antilles. All the above, combined with approaching trough, looks like a nice setup for good old fashioned nor'easter or hybrid storm blowing up the East Coast.

Once that gets out of the way, the ULL/Tropical wave interacting north and east of Lesser Antilles could be the next player. I guess that is the system the models are showing over the Bahamas later this week.

What a strange pattern this year! All of these Bahama systems, and not one Cape Verde storm making it across the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
319. jimmiek
1:18 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
Holland is a gorgeous country. These folks know how to
live below sea (or "zee") level. Plus they seemingly
tolerate my Dutch....

Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 52 Comments: 1016
318. rxse7en
1:04 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Check out Tammy in the Gulf. Little tiny convection and spin :D coming right back over us in N FL. The blob below Cuba is blowing up nicely again too.

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
317. wxfan
12:41 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
All the models are showing TC development in the next few days in the Southern Bahamas. SSTs are high and ws is forecast to become light. That could be a big storm....
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
316. oriondarkwood
12:06 PM GMT on October 07, 2005
StormJunkie,

You and Lefty play games as in Role Playing Games or just gaming period?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
315. StormJunkie
11:11 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Mith Debunking.

Tammy does not look good on IR. The circ is still there, but very little convection. SHe needs convection in order to reform.

Lefty is done gamming and so am I.

THe carib temps will go down a little after all of this cloud cover and rain although I would not rule out more storms. The temp is still well high enoguh to support canes.

Goodnight all.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
314. leftyy420
11:08 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
quick post befor i head to bed. models all form a cyclone sw of bernuda in 3 days. thsi cyclone track is every where but looks like a possible us threat. possibly the carolinas but to early to say. bevelive this cyclone forms from the wave near the lesser antilles.

also updat on va weather steady to heavy rain all night. .5 inches so far but forcasyedto pick 6 onches thru tomm. oh what fun lol. will knowmore woth the next set of model runs

good night all
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
313. snowboy
10:30 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Hey primez, I think Lefty is off gaming.

Hurricanes are all about available energy, and as you point out water temps are very high so the energy is there. Just a question of whether other factors come together to allow hurricane formation. just now they're not conducive, but as we've seen in this unusual season that can change very quickly.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
312. primez
10:10 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Lefty, what are the chances of seeing a late October hurricane like Mitch again with water temps this high in the Carribean?
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
311. snowboy
10:03 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
she's baaaaaaaaack...

- which IR are you looking at?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
310. dcw
9:55 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
*jawdrop*

LOOK AT THE IR!

Tammy reforming!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
309. dcw
9:53 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
These upper-level winds are getting on my nerves.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
308. snowboy
9:12 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
All is quiet on the TS/TD front (with all of the excitement along the east coast):

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
307. StormJunkie
7:40 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Never mind saw it down below, but I assume it is DolphinStriker
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
306. leftyy420
7:37 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
meet u on
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
305. StormJunkie
7:35 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Home.

WillJax you in too?

What is your screenname?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
304. leftyy420
7:34 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
sj u home yet lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
303. DocNDswamp
7:14 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
X-Box? Ok guys that doesn't sound like storm forecasting to me...LOL

Whassup Lefty, StormJunkie, WillJax, no he left..too late/too slow for...DialupImpairedDoc. Man we needed a break ....

You know, I'm certain E Coast is gonna get a solid N'oreaster 'cane out sometime before this is over...friend told me Farmer's Almanac predicts Gulf Coast system mid to 3rd wk. Oct. And then there's the Carribean thru Nov.. 4th letter of Greek alphabet.......

Aw what the Hell, I'm on a Mac and couldn't play any way....Later...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4783
302. leftyy420
6:38 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
lol night will
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
301. WillJax
6:37 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
While some people think they are insulting me, to hear a four-year-old beat me down would actually be insulting. I will be on the lookout for her when we play...I'm not gonna let that happen!

Here's to beating the '33 Record without the loss of any more lives!!

Gnight man, we're not so diff after all.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
300. leftyy420
6:36 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
64 doubt it. it will get pulled north in response to the trof and will likley not be able to form above a ts if it does form. shear is going to be a big problem for that system in 72 hours so it will have a short time to form befor it will get torn apart
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
299. weatherbuff64
6:33 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
so what are your thoughts on the disturbance that could become a storm in the atlantic east of the antilles....could there be a threat in 7 to 10 days
298. leftyy420
6:30 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
will i get my 4yr old to play with me sometimes. she isn;t any good but she does beat people fown. funny as hell and she has her own headset lol. she be laughing at people and i ma like u just got beat down by a 4yr old lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
297. WillJax
6:26 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
That's a fair warning...but I will warn you as well!

I am headshot master, my fav is Covenant Carbine, then BR. I will snipe you point blank if ya get too near! Muahaha.

Can't wait for Halo on xbox360. What can I say, I plan to play these games, if not intermittently, for the rest of my life...

Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
296. leftyy420
6:21 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
will i am pretty good. i ma level 29 right now but been as high as 32 and thats probly to low. i play alot by myself or with my bros who are not as good as me so i will get 20+ kills and lose lol. stormjunkie will tell you. i get 15 kills every game atleast. my favorite weapon is the plasma pistol and anything else combo lol. i love the plasma pistol melle as well. call it the donkey punch lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
295. WillJax
6:21 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Mike it is...

I'll def look you up next time I'm on XBL. In the meantime I will surely see you on here tomorrow.

Night bro.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
294. leftyy420
6:18 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
yes its getting nasty now.raining hard

mu name is mike but i also go by lefty. even my wife calls me lefty

screen name on xbox LEFLY420

yes its an l not a t. i messwed it up lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
293. WillJax
6:14 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Of course my friend. I don't own an x-box because all of my friends do, if that makes any sense.

I usually play under DoplhinStriker and StinkyPinkyOK (don't ask).

What's your XBLive name? Oh BTW what's your real name, I might as well refer to you by that, as we refer to eachother so often. My real name is in fact William.

To interject some weather into the convo, looks like you're also soon going to receive the rains we're about to get over the next coupld of days. The tropics on their way Virginia for sure.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
292. DocNDswamp
6:14 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
Hey fellows , here briefly...
guygee, .. Thanks for publishing that article Katrina/NO - that's the truth of the situation....we begged the feds for 15 point whatever billion to rebuild our coastline and fortify the levee systems in S LA...now what will it cost? Finally offered half billion last year, essentially another token/bandaid. - way too late....and I'm sure we'll be forgotten soon, again....

St Simons - excellent 1st hand reporting on effects from TS Tammy....good, accurate data...appreciate your reports...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4783
291. leftyy420
6:08 AM GMT on October 07, 2005
will any time u wanna play just say the word
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.