Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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429. PensacolaDoug
6:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2010
.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 647
427. tornadodude
1:55 PM GMT on November 22, 2010
Not much of a severe threat today, but I do have a 2% tornado probability

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
425. ColdInFL
1:06 PM GMT on November 22, 2010
Record cold temps possible in Nevada:
http://www.rgj.com/article/20101122/NEWS/11220320/1321
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
422. islander101010
12:53 PM GMT on November 22, 2010
any more development coming this season?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4992
421. GeoffreyWPB
12:01 PM GMT on November 22, 2010
47 years ago today:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11517
420. greentortuloni
8:56 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Link

More ammunition for the "I don't believe in GW but I can't do anything about it anyway so God will have to clean up our mess" crowd.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
419. DontAnnoyMe
6:48 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting szqrn1:
AND I already have about 2 feet in the yard
..... in mountains of Teton Valley Idaho


Yikes, that's a lotta snow. More than usual for this time of year?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
418. szqrn1
6:02 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
AND I already have about 2 feet in the yard
..... in mountains of Teton Valley Idaho
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 392
417. szqrn1
6:01 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Winter Storm Warning is now in effect until 11 PM MST Tuesday.


* Snow accumulations... an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow is likely
through Tuesday night below 7000 feet. An additional 1 to 3
feet of snow is likely above 7000 feet through Tuesday night


okay talk about the warmest weather and we are gonna have a mother of a winter up here!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 392
416. Orcasystems
5:50 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Complete Update

New Overlays :)






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
415. tornadodude
5:24 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
off to bed, have a goodnight everyone
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
414. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:14 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55635
413. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:11 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55635
412. winter123
5:08 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Looks like the first widespread (albeit probably light accumulation) snow in the northeast will be friday-saturday. Can't wait! (Since it's so cold, we should have snow.
Weather channel image doesnt work -_- how about a link?
Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
411. tornadodude
5:01 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Calling it a night. The computer network will be calling in the morning. Take care and keep up the great work!


have a good one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
410. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:58 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


thats a good thing for sure


Calling it a night. The computer network will be calling in the morning. Take care and keep up the great work!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
409. tornadodude
4:55 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Thanks, man. All ended well.


thats a good thing for sure
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
408. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:54 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah, Grothar has to be getting up there (;

and im sorry about your loss, but glad you rebuilt and glad to see its storm worthy


Thanks, man. All ended well.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
407. tornadodude
4:51 AM GMT on November 22, 2010


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...W-CNTRL/NWRN SD...FAR SWRN ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220259Z - 220900Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NERN WY AND W-CNTRL SD BY 06Z...AND THEN SPREAD NWD INTO NWRN
SD...SERN MT AND FAR SWRN ND BY 09Z.

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW A S/W TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS/INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM OVER WY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE
NIGHT...FOCUSING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA AND 600-700 MB WAA OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE A SOMEWHAT DRY 00Z SOUNDING FROM
RAP...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOISTEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS ASCENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A ZONE OF STRONG LIFT THROUGH A DEEPLY
SATURATED LAYER...AS WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR APPEAR
PROBABLE. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN
WY AND W-CNTRL SD BY 06Z. THE HEAVY SNOW IS THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD
NWD INTO NWRN SD AND ADJACENT SERN MT/FAR SWRN ND...WITH RATES
PEAKING NEAR 2 IN/HR DURING 06-09Z.


..GARNER.. 11/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 44770061 43710398 43770573 44400666 45540685 46620516
46650176 45940030 44770061
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
406. tornadodude
4:46 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree. The work that you do has life saving posibilities. I admire your work and courage. If only I was a younger man! Well, from what I hear, I must be a 100 years younger than Grothar. LOL

My memories of these storms have been well documented. I lost my house and belongings in Rita. I lost three ridge row shingles from a tree limb in Ike. What a difference new construction makes! I had the new one built stronger than the old one!


haha yeah, Grothar has to be getting up there (;

and im sorry about your loss, but glad you rebuilt and glad to see its storm worthy
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
405. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:40 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
Interesting...



Looks like they covered a lot of territory in a short time. 22 minute time lapse.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
404. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:39 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, I dont wish bad weather on anyone, but it's going to happen, so why not document it?


I agree. The work that you do has life saving posibilities. I admire your work and courage. If only I was a younger man! Well, from what I hear, I must be a 100 years younger than Grothar. LOL

My memories of these storms have been well documented. I lost my house and belongings in Rita. I lost three ridge row shingles from a tree limb in Ike. What a difference new construction makes! I had the new one built stronger than the old one!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
403. tornadodude
4:37 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Interesting...

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
402. tornadodude
4:31 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, if you are going to be intercepting hurricanes in it, I hope that I do not see it for the first time while you are intercepting a hurricane. Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike will do me for awhile.


Yeah, I dont wish bad weather on anyone, but it's going to happen, so why not document it?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
401. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:27 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Definitely will

I have a lot of work to do for this coming season, but with what I have, I will be able to chase storms as well as intercept hurricanes.



Well, if you are going to be intercepting hurricanes in it, I hope that I do not see it for the first time while you are intercepting a hurricane. Alicia, Allison, Rita and Ike will do me for awhile.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
400. Orcasystems
4:26 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting foggymyst:
Aww thanks Orca! :) Always sending me the best!


For you dear.. almost anything :)
Snow even :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
399. foggymyst
4:24 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Aww thanks Orca! :) Always sending me the best!
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
398. aspectre
4:24 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
322 Patrap
A floodwall on the National Mall?
Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:25 PM
The Washington Post The Washington Post
Eighty thousand cubic yards of dirt. Thirty steel girders. An 8-foot-high concrete wall.
The Army Corps of Engineers plans to erect a barrier to protect downtown Washington and the National Mall from flooding during a Hurricane Katrina-sized storm. Construction on the barrier will soon be under way.
All to hold back floodwaters that may, or may not, surge across the Mall in the next century or so.
Yeesh, have they already forgotten HurricaneIsabel???

It won't take anything near a Katrina(9metre)surge to flood out the NationalMall.
DC was built where it is mostly cuz there was a sea-level swamp that nobody wanted. Portions of the NationalMall would already be flooded during normal high tides if it weren't for the embankment created to separate it from the tidal basin.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
397. tornadodude
4:22 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Sounds like it have it all "mapped out" already. ;-) You will upload pics when it is done?


Definitely will

I have a lot of work to do for this coming season, but with what I have, I will be able to chase storms as well as intercept hurricanes.

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
396. Orcasystems
4:21 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting foggymyst:
Any of the cold weather expect to reach Fla? Thx.


Yup... snow next week :P

j/k
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
395. foggymyst
4:19 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Any of the cold weather expect to reach Fla? Thx.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
394. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:18 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah I realize I can do that, but I had a previous version of it before, and really liked it. Also it will sync up with GRLEVEL3 so that I have GPS and radar data combined


Sounds like it have it all "mapped out" already. ;-) You will upload pics when it is done?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
393. tornadodude
4:15 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Dude, you can try it before you buy it. Microsoft has a 60 day trial version. This will be a good way to ensure that it is what you wanted. You can buy it any time during the 60 days.

http://www.microsoft.com/streets/en-us/Trial.aspx


Yeah I realize I can do that, but I had a previous version of it before, and really liked it. Also it will sync up with GRLEVEL3 so that I have GPS and radar data combined
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
392. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:12 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


It's getting there, will purchase GRLEVEL3 and microsoft streets and trips 2011 in in two weeks, thats a big start


Dude, you can try it before you buy it. Microsoft has a 60 day trial version. This will be a good way to ensure that it is what you wanted. You can buy it any time during the 60 days.

http://www.microsoft.com/streets/en-us/Trial.aspx
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
391. sunlinepr
4:04 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


How to Make Time-lapse Video – Ultimate Guide


Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
390. tornadodude
4:02 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Doing great.

How is the StormTrooper coming?


It's getting there, will purchase GRLEVEL3 and microsoft streets and trips 2011 in in two weeks, thats a big start
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
389. tornadodude
4:01 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:


Many links available; here is one

Link


Thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
388. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:01 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


How you doing?



I'll send it to OSS, thanks (:



Ha well can you send me a PM with your other address please? thanks (:


Doing great.

How is the StormTrooper coming?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
387. sunlinepr
4:00 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


Many links available; here is one

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
386. tornadodude
3:58 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Howdy, Dude!


How you doing?

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey. Did you want to make a time lapse video out of a regular video? If so, it seems that would take some kind of editing equipment, or software.


I'll send it to OSS, thanks (:

Quoting Ossqss:


Yes, you know my other addresses. I would be happy to help.


Ha well can you send me a PM with your other address please? thanks (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
385. Ossqss
3:54 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it


Yes, you know my other addresses. I would be happy to help.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
384. DontAnnoyMe
3:54 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Hey. Did you want to make a time lapse video out of a regular video? If so, it seems that would take some kind of editing equipment, or software.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
383. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:52 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy guys


Howdy, Dude!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
382. tornadodude
3:51 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
howdy guys
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
381. sunlinepr
3:51 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Cmc model south of Baja California.... Oh no.... Still showing something there???

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
380. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:45 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.


This was a very good read - "The demon-haunted world: science as a candle in the dark" - by Carl Sagan as well as "Cosmos".
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4764
379. scott39
3:43 AM GMT on November 22, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

...and lifelong agnostic.

Sure do miss him...
Have you ever heard of a Christian Agnostic follower? An Author by the name of Leslie D. WEATHERhead wrote a book about it.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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