Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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RE comment 76. Atlanta set its all time November low of 3 and had a high of 14 downtown on November 25 1950. That high of 14 was the coldest high temperature Atlanta observed during the 20th century. Not one day in winter had a colder high.
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It's going to get cold here for Thanksgiving...If only snow was added to the forecast...Maybe like a foot and a half of snow...


Figure 1. My 7-Day Forecast map for Fort Worth, Texas (Radar Station KDFW)
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I like little text

Anyway, we should be in for more of these type events within current trends in climate.
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Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 The preceding atmospheric state was one of La Nina conditions, the cold phase of ENSO...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there really is no help4u


link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
2010's (3 Snow Events, 3 Snow Events in One Year)

Main article: North American blizzard of 2009
See also: Winter storms of 2009-2010




Satellite image for January 24, 2003 snowfall


  • January 8-9, 2010: Very light dusting of snow seen in the eastern
    Jacksonville area. Light snow also fell in parts of central Florida,
    which briefly accumulated slightly in parts of Marion County. Sleet was widespread and snow was isolated across the Orlando area, Tampa and also in Melbourne.[19] Isolated flurries were even reported as from West Palm Beach to as far south as Kendall and sleet in a few spots in the South Florida metropolitan area for only the second time in record history and first time since 1977.[20]
  • February 12, 2010: A possibility of up to 4-7 inches of snow were
    predicted in Northwestern Florida including Pensacola and Crestview.
    Actual totals ended up around 1 inch in many spots.[21] 2010 is the first year since the mid 1950's to have more than one accumulation of snow in a single year.
  • February 14, 2010: A half inch of snow fell across the northern halves of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Walton and Okaloosa Counties.[22] Snowfall was associated with an Alberta clipper that sank southward due to Arctic air left by the cold front from the previous snow event.

From 2000 to 2009 there were only 6 snow events TOTAL.
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69 in the winter of 89 we had a wonderful snowstorm in Florida for Christmas.









Its not really a factor of cold - but of storm moisture being present when there is cold.
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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
eleven days to the official end to the hurricane season. after a pounding from Tomas here in St Lucia we have yet to receive some respite from the inclement weather. For the last 3 days we have been subjected to flash floods from the surface trough to our east. the whole island is affected and yesterday commercial actvity in the capital castries came to an abrupt halt .due to the excessive flooding. what now concerns me ,is the area of disturbed weather to the southeast of the islands. there is some cyclonic turning near 5N 40W. Shear is low and is forecast to remain so for the next two days. this could be another problem as this system moves west into a favourable environment. i will monitor this area very closely for any surprises
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Run away run away... the world is going to end as we know it :(

Warnings

Greater Victoria
10:55 AM PST Friday 19 November 2010
Snowfall warning for
Greater Victoria continued

5 to 10 cm of snow tonight.

This is a warning that significant snowfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A building Arctic ridge of high pressure over the British Columbia interior is producing strong outflow winds through the coastal valleys of the province and as a result cold air has pushed out to the coast. This cold air is forecast to combine with a low pressure system off Vancouver Island tonight to produce the first widespread snowfall of the season.

5 to 10 cm of snow is forecast for metro Vancouver, East Vancouver Island, Greater Victoria and the Southern Gulf Islands with the highest amounts over higher terrain. Locally higher amounts are also possible along East Vancouver Island where outflow winds will pick up moisture over the strait of Georgia.

The strong northeasterly outflow winds are expected to rise to 90 km/h with gusts to 110 over the Central Coast - coastal sections and up to 70 km/h with gusts to 90 over the southern sections of Howe Sound this evening.

The Arctic airmass will also combine with the strong northeasterly outflow winds to produce low windchill values below minus 20 degrees over the inland sections of the north and central coast. The strong winds and cold windchills are expected to moderate later Saturday as the Arctic ridge and the pacific low weaken.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Why does it always warm up for Thanksgiving and Christmas every year in the Tampa Bay area? This last winter was the only one that had cool weather for both days, but we also had sleet and snow last winter and one of the coldest winters ever and a record low of 24 in January, only 5 degrees above the all time coldest temp ever recorded here of 19 here.

The funny thing is, even though we did have finally a cool Thanksgiving and a cool Christmas, it was quite warm still compared to how cold last winter was.


I'm glad we don't get bitter cold winters here in Florida, but I wish it would regularly be cooler here during the winter. I'm an outdoorsman, so hunting and fishing is a lot more important to me then being a pretty boy and spending my life sitting on the beach getting tans and trying to hit on girls, what a boring way of life, and not very fulfilling for a man, no wonder many dudes are such wussies in Florida! lol

I don't know why sitting out on the beach in 90 degree heat is darn popular to millions of people. I love getting sun, but I get sun just working hard out on my land or fishing out in the intercoastal.
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1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO THE WEST OF THE BAY ISLANDS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

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Quoting klaatuborada:
Well, it's a balmy 44 F today. There was frost on the car when I drove my daughter to school. I've got a shirt and big sweater right now and I'm still freezing. Going down to 34 tonight, might get to 50 tomorrow. Down to 31 tomorrow night.

So buck up, you guys, with your highs in the 60's and 70's.


+1
At least you're in the warmer part of the state :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
I will say we have had 3" in November so far which is above normal so my yearly total is at 55" not 52. 2.50" occured 11/2/10.
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WE had 2.55" in July, 5" in August, 3" in September, 0.00 in october.
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Quoting lightningbolt73:
What rainy season?


From January thru June this year I picked up 42" of rain here on the northside of orlando. Only 10" of rain though from July to 11/18. Been very dry since July. The 42" of rain from Jan. thru June were compliments of El-Nino.
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One very warm to even a hot week coming for C FL next week. Look at the link below. Temps in the mid to upper 60's for lows! WOW!! May temps in November can't beat that I will be hitting the beach later next week.

http://www.wesh.com/weather/hrstwx;byzip;32801/forecast.html?qs=;longname=Conditions%26Forecast;sho rtname=Forecast;days=n&ib_wxwidget=true#HEARSTWX=http%3A//www.wesh.com/weather/16656637/media.html%3 Fqs%3D%3Bref%3D/weather/18496077/media.html%3Blongname%3D7%2520Day
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

Not looking good for dry season this year for us Floridians. Could be quite ugly come May-June when the rains kick in, if they kick in that is. The map below illustrates what this rainy season produced. (Click Map For Full Size)

What rainy season?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Their's a comment of mine on another blog where I explain why I think the U.S will see multiply hits next hurricane season.The kids are driving me nuts right now so I can't think clearly. Nice one.


I'll have to check it out when I get home from work,


have a good afternoon/evening everyone!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


All it takes is one system for a year to be considered disastrous, whether here in the U.S. or anywhere around the world
Their's a comment of mine on another blog where I explain why I think the U.S will see multiply hits next hurricane season.The kids are driving me nuts right now so I can't think clearly.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there really is no help4u
Nice one.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't think we'll be lucky next year.


All it takes is one system for a year to be considered disastrous, whether here in the U.S. or anywhere around the world
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting help4u:
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
there really is no help4u
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm not really sure that 94L should have ever been re-instated. Looks like the Season will hopefully wind down as one of the the more busy season but, one that created less harm for most. Gotta say the ConUs was somewhat spared this year....Maybe even a little lucky.
I don't think we'll be lucky next year.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay just wanna say that the predictions for next hurricane season comes out in about 2-3 weeks,and I predict that the numbers will look something like this 15-17 storms.Faverable conditions will last into next hurricane season.
it will be another 18 to 20 with 12 to 14 becoming canes
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Okay just wanna say that the predictions for next hurricane season comes out in about 2-3 weeks,and I predict that the numbers will look something like this 15-17 storms.Faverable conditions will last into next hurricane season.
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AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!APOCALYPSE-INDUCED MISANTHROPIC ENVIRONMENTAL NERVOUSNESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting eddye:
how about orlando fl will they get the 30 next weekend


That's global warming for you.
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Come Turkey day maybe a recovery day for me after long hard partying next Wednesday Night.
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Quoting dolphingalrules:

thanksgiving day....20 people arre going dinner outside....


Highs in the 80's with a chance of a shower other than that great weather to be outside to eat Turkey and drink many cocktails. Enjoy!
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Quoting Jeff9641:


SE FL will will be in the low 50's next weekend for low temps. Mid 40's inland and north.

thanksgiving day....20 people arre going dinner outside....
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Best wishes as a Evansville Weather Examiner.... TDude....


Thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:
In case any of y'all are interested, here is my first article with the Evansville Examiner: link


Best wishes as a Evansville Weather Examiner.... TDude....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
In case any of y'all are interested, here is my first article with the Evansville Examiner: link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Orlando International

Nov 19
Partly Cloudy
75
57


Sat
Nov 20
Partly Cloudy
80
58





Sun
Nov 21
Partly Cloudy
80
59




Mon
Nov 22
Partly Cloudy
81
58




Tue
Nov 23
Partly Cloudy
84
58





Wed
Nov 24
Partly Cloudy
84
59





Thu
Nov 25
Partly Cloudy
85
57





Fri
Nov 26
Few Showers
76
51



Sat
Nov 27
Mostly Sunny
73
46





Sun
Nov 28
Sunny
73
50




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how about orlando fl will they get the 30 next weekend
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TGIF

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Quoting eddye:
do u mean 45 degrees for west palm beach broward


SE FL will will be in the low 50's next weekend for low temps. Mid 40's inland and north.
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Quoting WXTXN:
"It's more and more clear to those paying attention, isn't it?"

The tripping point has been reached and from now on you have to be delusional to not realize we are in for some BIG changes..


I am delusional still. Sorry.
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jeff 9641
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i just hope when i go to universal the 18th i hope it will be a little cold and not hot
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do u mean 45 degrees for west palm beach broward
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Quoting eddye:
jeff 9641 and low in the mid 40


yeap, 45 to 50 at night warming into the 70's during the day. Perfect if you ask me.
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jeff 9641 and low in the mid 40
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Quoting eddye:
will it get cold in south fla


No not much maybe temps coming down to 75 in S FL next weekend for highs after being in the mid 80's all next week.
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The extreme cold that the models were indicating next week seems to be easing some. It is becoming more and more clear just how warm FL will be this winter. I mean highs next week in Orlando are forecast to be in the mid 80's and only cooling down to the mid 70's next weekend. What Doc failed to mention is that during El-Nino years it is common for the SE US to get frequent Artic outbreaks this winter will be the opposite as cold air masses will only last a day or 2 and be replaced by warm conditions for extended periods. Bottomline the northern US and Canada are in for a very harsh winter while the south will be enjoying very warm wintertime temps for most of the winter to come.
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will it get cold in south fla
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Well, it's a balmy 44 F today. There was frost on the car when I drove my daughter to school. I've got a shirt and big sweater right now and I'm still freezing. Going down to 34 tonight, might get to 50 tomorrow. Down to 31 tomorrow night.

So buck up, you guys, with your highs in the 60's and 70's.
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"It's more and more clear to those paying attention, isn't it?"

The tripping point has been reached and from now on you have to be delusional to not realize we are in for some BIG changes..
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31. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO THE WEST OF THE BAY ISLANDS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

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Quoting jeffs713:

Kinda amusing how the South does that during the fall, while the North does the same thing in the spring.


LOL... never thought of it before. I guess the poor snow birds have to do it twice.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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