Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
what storms will be upgraded or retired...
Alex, 115 MPH cat.3 (retired - 60%)I say Yes
Igor, 155 MPH - 160 MPH cat.4-5 (Retired - 55%)NO, Yes if upgraded to cat 5.
Karl, 120 MPH cat.3 (retired 90%)Yes
Matthew, 60 MPH TS (retired 70%)Yes
Richard, 100 MPH Cat.2 (retired 45%)No
Shary, 75 MPH Cat.1 (retired 70%)Yes
Tomas, 100 MPH cat.2 (retired 75%)Yes

My thoughts on retirement chances for the storms above:
Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 60%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%

(Modified 11/20 @ 8:33 AM)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
Quoting Ossqss:
I provided indisputable evidence of the climate in Greenland from years ago via DNA and ice cores. Just look and learn. What do you think provides the energy for what you see today ????? Is there any other source of energy for our planet that will impact your climate ??? Think about it, and do some math.


Oh, this old thing again? A video full of half-truths, populated by a pair of ExxonMobil-funded non-climatologists (Legates is a geographer, while Soon is an astrophysicist)?

But, okay, let's forget for a moment the pseudo-scientific provenance of the piece, and address it on its primary premise: that Greenland used to be green, and the Vikings had a grand old time cavorting around their lush tropical paradise.

Uh, no.

Viking existence on Greenland was harsh and meager, due mostly to their foolish insistence on living a European lifestyle in an arctic climate. Yes, they farmed cattle, goats, and sheep--but were only able to do so by keeping those animals in a barn 24 hours a day for five months out of the year. They overstressed the landscape so much with their European ways that they simply starved to death after several consecutive severe winters.

Too, Greenland's ice sheet is hundreds of thousands of years old, and the vast majority of land not under that sheet is rock and permafrost in the island's far north; how could things have possibly been much different just a thousand years ago?

Think about that, and do some math...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
what storms will be upgraded or retired...
Alex, 115 MPH cat.3 (retired - 60%)I say Yes
Igor, 155 MPH - 160 MPH cat.4-5 (Retired - 55%)NO, Yes if upgraded to cat 5.
Karl, 120 MPH cat.3 (retired 90%)Yes
Matthew, 60 MPH TS (retired 70%)Yes
Richard, 100 MPH Cat.2 (retired 45%)No
Shary, 75 MPH Cat.1 (retired 70%)Yes
Tomas, 100 MPH cat.2 (retired 75%)Yes
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Quoting pilotguy1:


This is very good and real close to my position for which I am regularly attacked. It speaks of the facts.
\

Facts are a good thing !

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070705153019.htm
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
I provided indisputable evidence of the climate in Greenland from years ago via DNA and ice cores. Just look and learn. What do you think provides the energy for what you see today ????? Is there any other source of energy for our planet that will impact your climate ??? Think about it, and do some math.

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Quoting JFLORIDA:



I've looked at the webicorders. There's a ton of electronic noise right now. I doubt that those quakes are real, and they will probably disappear upon review. Of course, if they ARE real, they are at depths that could only be within the magma chamber. Let's just hope it's noise.
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Complete Update

Nada Tropical happening... but the clouds here have dandruff... and its starting to stick :(






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Yup, we have had readings and standards that are verifiable for centuries, right?

Reading material if you like.

http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/2/11/2561/pdf
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Quoting Dakster:
MH09 - Enjoy your younger years while you can...

Right Grothar?

LOL.
Quoting Dakster:
Welp. goodnight all.
Good night Dak.
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Welp. goodnight all.
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MH09 - Enjoy your younger years while you can...

Right Grothar?

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Quoting Dakster:
I thought you were close to going to college...
A few more years.
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I thought you were close to going to college...
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Quoting Dakster:
Hey gro - not much you?

Hey MH09... How's the college hunting going?
Hello. High school hunting you mean, lol.
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Hey gro - not much you?

Hey MH09... How's the college hunting going?
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Quoting Grothar:


Nice shot. I never saw a hurricane on Pepto-Bismol before.
Ehem, typhoon. The Pepto-Bismol part made me literally laugh out loud though.
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Quoting Dakster:
Grothar.... LOL...




Somebody is alive!!!!! TV can't be that good tonight. How you doing Dak? Just up to my old sarcastic humor.
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Grothar.... LOL...


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, but I got this image of Super-Typhoon Megi as it was making landfall over Luzon as a category 5. I personally prefer this image over the globe since Africa is dead right now, but you know, that's just me. :)



Nice shot. I never saw a hurricane on Pepto-Bismol before.
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Quoting Grothar:



What, no globe?
No, but I got this image of Super-Typhoon Megi as it was making landfall over Luzon as a category 5. I personally prefer this image over the globe since Africa is dead right now, but you know, that's just me. :)

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty.

Go here to "StormChasers2007's 2010 Hurricane Season images", and start looking on page(s) 2 and 3 for radar and satellite images of Tomas as it went over the Antilles. I'm really short on time right now so I won't be able to send you them by e-mail, however, if I find the time tomorrow I will be more than happy to do so.



What, no globe?
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Quoting caneswatch:


Same here in FL, surfing season's a go!


What are you talking about? It is freezing here in Ft. Lauderdale, we're down to almost 70.
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Quoting brohavwx:
I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
Plenty.

Go here to "StormChasers2007's 2010 Hurricane Season images", and start looking on page(s) 2 and 3 for radar and satellite images of Tomas as it went over the Antilles. I'm really short on time right now so I won't be able to send you them by e-mail, however, if I find the time tomorrow I will be more than happy to do so.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Models, up to this moment, show no development.... Cold fronts will move all that moisture from the ITCZ NE into the Atl.... Up to this moment models read "Atl Hur Season Over". Here in PR, beautiful afternoons and Surfing season activated....


Same here in FL, surfing season's a go!
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I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
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Quoting stoormfury:
eleven days to the official end to the hurricane season. after a pounding from Tomas here in St Lucia we have yet to receive some respite from the inclement weather. For the last 3 days we have been subjected to flash floods from the surface trough to our east. the whole island is affected and yesterday commercial actvity in the capital castries came to an abrupt halt .due to the excessive flooding. what now concerns me ,is the area of disturbed weather to the southeast of the islands. there is some cyclonic turning near 5N 40W. Shear is low and is forecast to remain so for the next two days. this could be another problem as this system moves west into a favourable environment. i will monitor this area very closely for any surprises


Models, up to this moment, show no development.... Cold fronts will move all that moisture from the ITCZ NE into the Atl.... Up to this moment models read "Atl Hur Season Over". Here in PR, beautiful afternoons and Surfing season activated....
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When we get another cold season due to the conditions forecast above, just wait for all the denialists (most of whom live in Europe and eastern North America, as it so happens) to start crowing, "See? Where is this global warming?" So many don't understand that the planet is more than just their back yards...
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
the 29th and 30th are looking interesting in the NE on the GFS.

I dont think its nearly resolved even for next week yet.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
forever faster and faster

JF
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I placed my order back in early October for a repeat of Feb 1899!


Yes I know.. I have reposted it numerous times :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
I placed my order back in early October for a repeat of Feb 1899!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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