Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 179 - 129

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

In opinion I think Tomas may be the only storm that will be retired, however I could be wrong about that. I've been wrong before. Also I hope everybody in North Texas is enjoying the warm weather, because it sure seems like the bottom is going to drop out come Thanksgiving!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
No cool air coming to FL anytime soon. Infact the Euro blows up a big storm over FL later next week.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
A couple of notes.

I am not so sure Tomas will be retired. Hurricane Gordon in 1994 killed more than 1,100 in Haiti but was not retired. The WMO considered that the destruction and deaths in Haiti were caused not by the hurricane, but by the mismanagement of the environment.


I'll disagree with you on that, and even go out on a limb by saying that if only one storm name is retired this year, it'll be Tomas.

Here are the death tolls/dollar damages* for each of this year's probable retirement candidates:

Alex - 73 / 1,885
Igor - 4 / 164
Karl - 22 / 5,600
Matthew - 126 / 2,600
Tomas - 41 / 572

Now, by way of comparison, here are a few retired names from recent years:

Fabian (2003) - 8 / 354
Felix (2007) - 133 / 756
Noel (2007) - 222 / 609
Paloma (2008) - 1 / 315

As you can see, retirement isn't based on just lives or money lost; it also has to do with what's requested.

* - death tolls include direct, indirect, and missing presumed dead; monetary amounts are in 2010 millions of USD.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
GOM IR loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Boil-water advisory in effect at least until 3 p.m., Sunday, Landrieu says

A boil-water advisory issued for the east bank of New Orleans will last until at least until 3 p.m., Sunday, as officials await test results that will show if a prolonged overnight drop in water pressure caused contamination of the city's drinking water, Mayor Mitch Landrieu said during a noon news conference at City Hall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...


I will be in Mexico in January..... which seems like a long ways away. It should be all melted shortly...I hope.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The NCEP shows the cold air nicely. Check out the Caribbean Sea after 168 hours..lol...Link
My link is not working. If you have time, pull up the NCEP, its worth the look... Here is the always interesting MIMIC loop..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting Bordonaro:
The NCEP shows the cold air nicely. Check out the Caribbean Sea after 168 hours..lol...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Dakster:


How did that work out for you?

I hear singing in the background, must be that lady singing about the 2010 season...


She mentioned something about the sun ... and something about the sun not shining somewhere... hard to remember, I now have a ringing sound in my ears... and the frying pan is on the floor...
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:






It stopped for the late evening... but it has started again. I had to get SWMBO out of bed so she could clean off my truck and get the driveway cleared.


How did that work out for you?

I hear singing in the background, must be that lady singing about the 2010 season...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10123
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Alex hit the 3rd largest city in Mexico hard while he was overland. Igor was the WORST hurricane in Newfoundland in at least a century, and Matthew was more damaging and deadly than ALLISON.

Found out Allison's damage, WAY more damaging than I thought. Oops. Matthew is still more deadly though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
This in a year with a moderate-to-strong La Nina, time for some background music from the denier chorus.

Also, new meteorological term of the day: Jetlet. As in:

"THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ESP NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE DRAWN A SMALL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP THERE. MODELS ALSO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING E/NE ACROSS THE GULF ASSOCD WITH A 250 MB JETLET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.[...]"

From: FXUS62 KMLB 200852 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 352 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010



Definitions of jetlet on the Web:

* Sometimes used for “small” jet stream. The term very likely originated to describe relatively small regions of maximum wind, especially those analyzed as jet streams because the maximum wind falls within an arbitrary range of jet- stream speed.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Orca, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!






It stopped for the late evening... but it has started again. I had to get SWMBO out of bed so she could clean off my truck and get the driveway cleared.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Orca, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!

Preview Link of the Polar Vortex on my new blog entry
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
.... Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record...
This in a year with a moderate-to-strong La Nina, time for some background music from the denier chorus.

Also, new meteorological term of the day: Jetlet. As in:

"THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ESP NEAR THE COAST SO HAVE DRAWN A SMALL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP THERE. MODELS ALSO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING E/NE ACROSS THE GULF ASSOCD WITH A 250 MB JETLET. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL FL. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.[...]"

From: FXUS62 KMLB 200852 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 352 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
Quoting Orcasystems:
WTF!!!



This is not suppose to happen in Victoria BC :(
Its NOVEMBER!!!!!



GWMA


Wow! I WISH we had this much snow in S. Ontario!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
slowwwwww blooooogggg......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Got an inch of snow overnight. More to come today, tomorrow and the next day. Thinking of warm weather areas again. Heading out to the Big Island in a week or so for some golf and snorkoling. Glad to see the season of the many minicanes is almost in the history books.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



the end its getting closer now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Five retired storms is very rare, I think when a season is bad like this one some of the storms that would normally retire are faded in comparison and don't. Tomas and Karl I think are the only guarantees for retirement, Alex might not be suggested for retirement by Mexico, Igor only caused 200 mil, and Matthew's damage was widespread and he was only a TS, maybe a country won't suggest his retirement. No girls on this list kind of weird.

Alex hit the 3rd largest city in Mexico hard while he was overland. Igor was the WORST hurricane in Newfoundland in at least a century, and Matthew was more damaging and deadly than ALLISON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since everyone is talking about storms being retired I would say Igor(cuased alot of damage in canada,and newfoundland)Alex(cuased over a billon in damage to mexico)Karl(also cuased over 5 billion in mexico)Tomas(cuased alot of damage,and was one of the most expensive hurricanes for the island it effected)and maybe Richard?.Maybe not.But I feel as though Matthew will probally be retired to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pilotguy1:
Being called away by "She who must be obeyed." See ya'll.
Wife??.Ah yes sometimes us wemon can get quite feisty.Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetings all.
Have not been able to post for a week or so, only because I have been having too much fun!

Now in Bariloche, (8 celcius, strong winds, 85% humid, and it is raining). Seems that rain is the norm here, as they move into Summer.

What an incredibly beautiful place Patagonia is! Desert, Mountains,(still snow capped here at 42 degrees south), Rainforest, and mucho huge lakes.
It has been fun staying in Fishing lodges,(big trout here!) cabins in forests, and homes of Family who I have never before met.

Leaving here this evening for the long haul home via Buenos Aires, Panama, then Trinidad.

Good to see that all is as it should be in the Tropics...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
No girls on this list kind of weird.

ACE-wise, 'male' storms tallied up 106.1775 points, leaving the 'females- with 53.335. Even if Igor--this year's global ACE leader--were removed from the equation, the boys would still lead with 63.7325.

The two most powerful 'female' storms this year--Danielle and Julia--never made landfall. Thankfully.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Five retired storms is very rare, I think when a season is bad like this one some of the storms that would normally retire are faded in comparison and don't. Tomas and Karl I think are the only guarantees for retirement, Alex might not be suggested for retirement by Mexico, Igor only caused 200 mil, and Matthew's damage was widespread and he was only a TS, maybe a country won't suggest his retirement. No girls on this list kind of weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If I had go guess..
Alex: 60% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- 2.0 Billion dollars in damage to both Texas and Mexico. 20+ Dead.

Earl: 50% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- Moderate damage to the Leeward Island followed by heavy tree Damage in Canada.

Igor: 70-100% Chance of retirement.
Reasons- I only say 70% because I don't remember were it was posted but it was posted that Newfoundland requested retirement of Igor. I suspect post-season Igor will also be upgraded to a Category 5 based on ADT, SAB and TAFB measurements all indicated it was one at one point, perhaps twice.

Karl: 90% Chance of Retirement.
I'd be honestly quite surprised if Karl wasn't retired. 5.6+ Billion in damages to Mexico. Was pretty bad down there.

Matthew: 50-70% chance of retirement.
This would only be the 2nd time they retired a Tropical Storm but Matthew caused heavy damage to Nicaragua and Central America and heavy loss of life. They retired Felix that also made landfall in a similar area, so why not Matthew?

Tomas: 70-90% Chance of retirement.
The damage out of the islands sounds pretty bad, Tomas will probably get retired because of that.

Probably we'll see Igor, Karl and Tomas get the boot in Spring 2011.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Why wouldn't Matthew be retired? He caused $2.6 billion in damage, and killed 126 people...

My bad; it was late and at the end of a long day when I posted that. ;-) My revised-while-awake list:

Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 60%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
Quoting Neapolitan:

My thoughts on retirement chances for the storms above:
Alex - 90%
Igor - 70%
Karl - 90%
Matthew - 0%
Richard - 0%
Shary - 0%
Tomas - 100%

Why wouldn't Matthew be retired? He caused $2.6 billion in damage, and killed 126 people...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
139. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brohavwx:
I have a request ... does anyone have a saved image(s) shots of the Martinique Radar of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Tomas as it approached Barbados.

That would be between 10:00 PM Oct. 29th (0200Z/30) and 4 AM Oct 30th (0800Z/30).

I would much appreciate it if you could zip them up and send them to my e-mail dbrooks@brohavwx.com

If too big for e-mail I can arrange for FTP upload access to my site.

Of course if anyone know where to find such archived images on the net, that would be just as good.

Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
137. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 20 2010
===================================

Under influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea, a low pressure area has formed over central Arabian Sea.

Bay of Bengal & Andaman Sea
===========================

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over south Bay of Bengal and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, including south Andaman Sea

Arabian Sea
===========

Broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over south Arabian Sea, west of 64.0E with moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
X
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Idaho scientists find new seismic fault in Rockies

SALMON, Idaho (Reuters) – Scientists at Idaho State University have mapped a previously unknown and active seismic fault in the northern Rockies capable of unleashing an earthquake with a magnitude as high as 7.5.

The newly discovered fault in central Idaho does not lie in a densely populated area.

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those fish going to be ok in the pond orca is it heated


Its 3 feet deep... they can survive easily.
They hibernate when it goes lower then 50 and they can have over a foot of ice ontop.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
those fish going to be ok in the pond orca is it heated
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
WTF!!!



This is not suppose to happen in Victoria BC :(
Its NOVEMBER!!!!!



GWMA
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

Viewing: 179 - 129

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
72 °F
Overcast