Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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227. Patrap
5:08 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?


Obviously you havent been to NOLA in awhile Gro.

We dont do Dinner till 11pm on a Saturday.

Den we go out.

The Vieux Carre isnt Local Worthy till Midnight easily..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
226. Ossqss
4:39 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Grothar:
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?


Note the name of the group and song for that matter :)



OUt >>>
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
225. tornadodude
4:37 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
howdy everybody
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8324
224. TampaSpin
4:07 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Well, no wonder. It took you two hours to figure out that picture. LOL How you doing Big T? And thanks for the updates, by the way.


I was just reading all my emails.......to much stuff......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
223. RTLSNK
4:01 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?


Just came by to say hello. Time to call it a night for me. Busy day tomorrow. Packing up for a family Thanksgiving in Asheville, NC next week. Would be nice if it snowed. :)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20923
222. Grothar
3:48 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Even GeoffWPB hasn't been on posting his boring intellicast images. There must be a Three Stooges Marathon on. You know how old people get.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
221. Grothar
3:47 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD


Well, no wonder. It took you two hours to figure out that picture. LOL How you doing Big T? And thanks for the updates, by the way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
220. TampaSpin
3:44 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
219. Grothar
3:43 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting RTLSNK:


It is Saturday night you old person you. Young people go out on the town on Saturday night. Thats why you and I are still on the blog. :)




Who goes out this late? It's almost 11. Wassup, Snake?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
218. TampaSpin
3:38 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Vincent4989:

The second looks like a fake.


That lightning strike if you look at closely is coming from well behind the SL.....its on shore it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
217. RTLSNK
3:31 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Grothar:
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?


It is Saturday night you old person you. Young people go out on the town on Saturday night. Thats why you and I are still on the blog. :)


Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20923
216. Grothar
3:26 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Did I kill the blog? One hour and nobody around?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
215. Grothar
2:27 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
214. washingtonian115
2:14 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
I think when it comes to hurricanes/major hurricanes the United States "break" will come to an end next hurricane season.Be prepared each year like always.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
213. CybrTeddy
1:51 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Part 1 of my 2010 review
Link

Its a long read but I hope you all enjoy!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
212. CybrTeddy
1:29 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Working on part one of my large review of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
210. GeoffreyWPB
1:00 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
A little cooler weather coming after Thanksgiving:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 20 Tonight
Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy after midnight. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 68F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph.
Nov 21 Tomorrow
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 80F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Nov 21 Tomorrow night
Partly cloudy. Low 69F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Nov 22 Monday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 23 Tuesday
Scattered showers. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 24 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 25 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 26 Friday
Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Nov 27 Saturday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Nov 28 Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 29 Monday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11145
209. Neapolitan
12:58 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Vincent4989:

The second looks like a fake.

NG has been burned in the past by faked amateur shots, so their guidelines are pretty strict. To begin with, they won't accept a single photo; even from their pros, the insist on a number of untouched, straight-from-the-camera frames shot both before and after the actual entry. Not providing those is cause for immediate disqualification.

It's real...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13524
208. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:53 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Blog Update!

My 2011 Atlantic hurricane Season early predictions; My Thanksgiving forecast
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
207. Vincent4989
12:49 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since we're slow, thought folks who hadn't seen the would like these weather-related pictures from the 2010 National Geographic Photo Contest. The first is a small snowstorm over the Black Sea (with a freighter in the foreground adding perspective); the second is, of course, lightning striking the Statue of Liberty. MORE

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image


Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image

The second looks like a fake.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
206. Neapolitan
12:38 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Since we're slow, thought folks who hadn't seen the would like these weather-related pictures from the 2010 National Geographic Photo Contest. The first is a small snowstorm over the Black Sea (with a freighter in the foreground adding perspective); the second is, of course, lightning striking the Statue of Liberty. MORE

Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image


Click for larger image:

Appropriate weather-related image
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13524
205. GeoffreyWPB
12:26 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11145
204. Orcasystems
12:25 AM GMT on November 21, 2010

Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
203. Orcasystems
12:22 AM GMT on November 21, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
202. Neapolitan
11:44 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting winter123:
GFS shows a EPAC storm 6 days out:


And atlantic storm 14 days out:


Unlikely, but very possible.


Not that unlikely; there've been four named December storms over the previous seven seasons (2003-2009), so you could say there's a better than 57% chance we'll see one this year. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13524
201. DontAnnoyMe
11:41 PM GMT on November 20, 2010
Quoting washingtonian115:
I agree.And it looks like that NAO wants to stay negative for awhile....It may almost be like last year only insted with the lack of moisture becuase of no El nino this time.


Of course there will be cold snaps, it's almost winter!

The NAO is almost always negative; it's only when it gets strongly negative that the cold effect is seen. And it is progged to become only weakly negative by Dec. 5 or so:



In addition, the PNA, which when negative is also related to cold in the north/east, is also progged to be near neutral by Dec. 5 or so:



CPC still predicts above average temps for most of the southern US Dec-Mar:





BTW, the CPC weekend outlooks are not graced with forecaster input, so they must be viewed with caution.

Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
200. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Jeff9641:
Speaking of rain some of it is heavy as it crosses the Brevard County coast and this rain is trying to spread toward orlando. Finally more rain as we so need it.


.02" here in Melbourne. Smelling smoke occasionally the last two days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS shows a EPAC storm 6 days out:


And atlantic storm 14 days out:


Unlikely, but very possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know climatology doesn't support it but does anyone else think the blob in the EPAC (remnants of 94L looks sketchy? There's a curved band forming with plenty of outflow to the north. Also that convection lingering over the east carribean for the past few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Heh!!
Looks pretty gruesome there, Orca!
It is cold, windy and wet in this part of Argentina as well, but Summer is coming here soon.

My next post will be from the Sunny, Hot Caribbean. On Monday...


Except it's been raining very hard since last night and the temp is 24 C at the moment, I'm reaching for a shirt!!!
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Good stuff to know. I guess that helps explain the large number of October tropical cyclones this year.

-Dan
Homepage
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
A couple of notes.

I am not so sure Tomas will be retired. Hurricane Gordon in 1994 killed more than 1,100 in Haiti but was not retired. The WMO considered that the destruction and deaths in Haiti were caused not by the hurricane, but by the mismanagement of the environment.

Also, in the list of cold records from the 1899 cold wave the 4 degrees in San Antonio was broken in 1949 when the temperature fell all the way to zero.


Gordon was not retired because of totally different reasons in the WMO's own words ' crediting Jamaica and Cuba's warning infrastructure for the low loss of life there, and blaming Haiti's lack of such a system for the large number of deaths there.'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
Quoting Ossqss:
Collapse of Chicago Climate Exchange Means a Strategy Shift on Global Warming Curbs

Next


Interesting quote in there from Myron Ebell, the ultra-conservative philosophy major: "The problem is now that the administration changed strategy and is using existing laws and regulations, like the Clean Air Act, the Endangered Species Act and EPA regulations to implement its agenda."

Did you catch that? "The problem"? It's a "problem" that the current administration has the utter gall to try to enforce highly-regarded environmental protection laws to slow down Big Energy's headlong rush to utterly destroy the planet? Wow, how dare they?! All those people who think that maintaining the long-term health of the Earth for our ancestors should be ashamed of themselves! Don't they know that it's un-American to do anything that might curtail the profits of ExxonMobil?!

Boy oh boy is this country--and this planet--in trouble. Deep, deep trouble...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13524
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Somehow, I believe this winter will not go as planned...In fact, judging by the maps, it might be the complete opposite. :P

The blue is supposed to be covering the Northwest, and the orange should be covering the south.
I agree.And it looks like that NAO wants to stay negative for awhile....It may almost be like last year only insted with the lack of moisture becuase of no El nino this time.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temps...




8-14 day temps...



Somehow, I believe this winter will not go as planned...In fact, judging by the maps, it might be the complete opposite. :P

The blue is supposed to be covering the Northwest, and the orange should be covering the south.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
185. IKE
6-10 day temps...




8-14 day temps...

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New Image!



KDFW - Dallas/Fort Worth Radar Station (Forecast for Fort Worth, Texas)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
Quoting Jeff9641:
THe Euro and Canadian models are pinching off the cold air and keeping it north while developing at Cut off Low near the GULF. May take a couple of weeks to get any significant cooling for FL.
we will see
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lightningbolt73:
In opinion I think Tomas may be the only storm that will be retired, however I could be wrong about that. I've been wrong before. Also I hope everybody in North Texas is enjoying the warm weather, because it sure seems like the bottom is going to drop out come Thanksgiving!


Yup...Made this yesterday.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981
If I had to pick five storms this year up for retirement and their percentages, it would be:

1st place: Hurricane Karl/90%

2nd place: Tropical Storm Matthew/80%

3rd place: Hurricane Alex/70%

4th place: Hurricane Igor/65%

4th place: Hurricane Tomas/65%

5th place: Hurricane Earl/55%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31981

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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