Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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with the end of cane season most disappear till early spring
a few hang out but not really many
ive seen docs blog in the dead of winter get 50 posts in 24 hrs
a few times even less than that
best time on the blog is the off season
quiet except for a GW rant every once in a while
when we get some severe or big winter storm
a few will check in
may even get a little busy
till event passes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Good Afternoon guys....

Well it looks like the hurricane season took away the trolls with it!






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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's a "problem" that the current administration has the utter gall to try to enforce highly-regarded environmental protection laws to slow down Big Energy's headlong rush to utterly destroy the planet? Wow, how dare they?! All those people who think that maintaining the long-term health of the Earth for our ancestors should be ashamed of themselves! Don't they know that it's un-American to do anything that might curtail the profits of ExxonMobil?!

Boy oh boy is this country--and this planet--in trouble. Deep, deep trouble...


Uh...

The CCX was a tool of major energy players

There are reasons why Dr. Hansen favors a carbon tax.

And, from a recent University of California Berkley study,

Fear tactics do not work wrt AGW

Or anything else for that matter. Both parties in this country have a fear based agenda... Reagan (whose administration embraced the Montreal Protocal on CFCs) at least recognized that one must be PRO freedom and not ANTI communist.

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I hope you feel better! If you have heath insurance your doctor can do a "extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy", where they crush the stone into smaller pieces, making them easier to pass.

Thanks for that Bordonaro,I went with lipotripsy last stone i had and they had to do it twice as i had a big sucker...bruised my kidney badly..sticking to a'la'natural and good meds this time...going back to get somemore green med now...TTYL WU Blog
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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


Levi gave us a heads up.. its gonna be white out a fair amount this winter.

I know you did not believe me last year when i told you this would occur, I wasn't joking..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting pcola57:

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?

I hope you feel better! If you have heath insurance your doctor can do a "extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy", where they crush the stone into smaller pieces, making them easier to pass.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, I am not so sure it will be coming back, maybe a break next weekend. And I can understand your frustration, we had that all winter long last year!!!


Levi gave us a heads up.. its gonna be white out a fair amount this winter.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just want our normal weather back... I like the fall....

In Victoria we only have three seasons... Raining, Sunny, Raining... or other wise known as Spring, Summer, and Fall. This winter stuff is for the birds.

Well, I am not so sure it will be coming back, maybe a break next weekend. And I can understand your frustration, we had that all winter long last year!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting pcola57:

Thanks TampaSpin..My Dr. said the same.It will pass ok...He also said that i need to keep putting the lime in the coconut and drink it all up and give him a call in the mornining(just a joke...LOL...feeling pretty good right now!!)


Been there done that (x3)... don't ever want to do it again
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Bordonaro:


This La Nina acts a little like last years "Modiki El Nino".

I believe that this La Nina has suffered a nervous breakdown and it needs a good weather psychiatrist!!


I just want our normal weather back... I like the fall....

In Victoria we only have three seasons... Raining, Sunny, Raining... or other wise known as Spring, Summer, and Fall. This winter stuff is for the birds.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its a Calcium build up. Avoid eating high Calcium foods and drink tons of water all the time. As the old saying go once you have 1, their is a good chance you will have more......YOU HOLD TRUE....my Dr. pre-warned me. AS he said, now you know what Labor pain feels like except a little worse. Get Well!

Thanks TampaSpin..My Dr. said the same.It will pass ok...He also said that i need to keep putting the lime in the coconut and drink it all up and give him a call in the mornining (just a joke...LOL...feeling pretty good right now!!)
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Gotta run......anyone wanting a Letter from Santa postmarked from the NORTH POLE....let me know. The deadline is this Friday the 26th. YOu all have a great Day....and lets see if my BUCS and win on the road again in San Fran. today. Unreal season for this young team. Give the Coach an Extension. Raheem has done an incredible job the last 2 years. He deserves a big pay check! See ya all later!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)


This La Nina acts a little like last years "Modiki El Nino".

I believe that this La Nina has suffered a nervous breakdown and it needs a good weather psychiatrist!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)


You can try slipping some thru on a plane.......but the scanners might melt it......LOL
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Quoting pcola57:

Thanks for the sympathy TampaSpin,right now i'm so medicated i don't think i will feel it...this is #3...don't want anymore for sure...


Its a Calcium build up. Avoid eating high Calcium foods and drink tons of water all the time. As the old saying go once you have 1, their is a good chance you will have more......YOU HOLD TRUE....my Dr. pre-warned me. AS he said, now you know what Labor pain feels like except a little worse. Get Well!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Orca, the weather will modify slightly next week. I apologize, I was not trying to antagonize you, insult you or hurt your feelings.

It is truly amazing how BIZARRE the weather patterns have been this fall.


Snow in Victoria is an oddity... Snow in November is just stupid. I was planning on golfing this weekend.

Picked up the plane tickets for Mexico yesterday... that made me feel better. Now all we have to do is try and figure out how to get snow to Florida again this year :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.

LOLOL
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The only place left for the possiblity of Tropcial Development is in the Caribbean as Shear is climbing but, still below average as a whole in the area. The Season is about to end if not already. Time to concentrate on Winter Weather.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.


Orca, the weather will modify slightly next week. I apologize, I was not trying to antagonize you, insult you or hurt your feelings.

It is truly amazing how BIZARRE the weather patterns have been this fall.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Nea: the lady liberty shot is real,however thelightning didnt hit her, but struck behind her in liberty park,which is actually in NJ!!!,is that snowsquall pic,a lake effect like snow,or actually baroclonically induced??,eitherway that snow pic is amazing imo
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Orca, do you have anymore snow pics to share????


I posted some new ones yesterday... as soon as I get a chance.., I am going into the backyard.. to find a big stick. You and I have to have a chat about this snow fetish you have.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Latest Winter Weather Blog article is up and ready for the reading at this Link

Here is a Link to the Ft Worth Weather Examiner page on Examiner.com covering North TX, US and World weather events
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting eddye:
is it going 2 get cold in south fla

It appears a brief cool down, no big cold snap for FL, this time!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TampaSpin:


Had that before......OUCHY! I will pass on that free prize. The way people are hurting maybe you could pay someone to take it away tho.....LOL Hope you feel better!

Thanks for the sympathy TampaSpin,right now i'm so medicated i don't think i will feel it...this is #3...don't want anymore for sure...
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Quoting pcola57:

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?


Had that before......OUCHY! I will pass on that free prize. The way people are hurting maybe you could pay someone to take it away tho.....LOL Hope you feel better!
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249. eddye
is it going 2 get cold in south fla
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I'll be giving birth to it soon..I thought Taco would be a cool name...what 'cha think
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, I have this funny feeling an upper level Low pressure area, a cut-off Low is going to form over the Desert Southwest and approach N Texas on Thanksgiving, with possible rain and/or snow!!!!!!

My brother just moved to upper Arizona from here in p'cola...culture and weather shock...Maybe his luck will aid in that cut-off low your speaking of..he has that kind of luck..HA!.By the way need a kidney stone free of charge...just shipping and handling?
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Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Orca, do you have anymore snow pics to share????
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting pcola57:

Been reading your articles,signed up,very good!!

Thanks, I have this funny feeling an upper level Low pressure area, a cut-off Low is going to form over the Desert Southwest and approach N Texas on Thanksgiving, with possible rain and/or snow!!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest 06Z GFS run is hinting at cold air for December 3-4th, 2010 over North Texas AGAIN :O)!!

We have a confused La Nina!!!

Been reading your articles,signed up,very good!!
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Orcasystem Vancouver, BC Weather Forecast..

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!! It's your turn :O)

Scattered Clouds. High: 32 F . Wind NE 8 mph . Windchill: 24 F .

Sunday Night
Clear. Low: 19 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 17 F .

Monday
Scattered Clouds. High: 26 F . Wind NNE 13 mph . Windchill: 13 F .

Monday Night
Clear. Low: 13 F . Wind NNE 17 mph . Windchill: 3 F .

Tuesday
Clear. High: 22 F . Wind ENE 6 mph . Windchill: 13 F .

Tuesday Night
Clear. Low: 17 F . Wind East 6 mph . Windchill: 12 F .

Wednesday
Scattered Clouds. High: 32 F . Wind East 6 mph . Windchill: 22 F .

Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: 26 F . Wind ESE 8 mph . Windchill: 19 F .

Thursday
Overcast. High: 41 F . Wind SE 8 mph . Windchill: 32 F .

Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 32 F . Wind SE 11 mph . 20% chance of precipitation (trace amounts). Windchill: 24 F .

Friday
Chance of Rain. Partly Cloudy. High: 44 F . Wind East 8 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.20 in).

Friday Night
Chance of Rain. Overcast. Low: 35 F . Wind ESE 13 mph . 40% chance of precipitation (water equivalent of 0.28 in). Windchill: 32 F .
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Thanks for the update Orca...this blog seems dead right now...hey i gotta idea ..lets all go to asheville nc next week!! Oh nevermind..kidney stone flaring up..
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Latest 06Z GFS run is hinting at cold air for December 3-4th, 2010 over North Texas AGAIN :O)!!

We have a confused La Nina!!! It thinks it's a "dry El Nino".. Is there a weather psychiatrist in the house?????
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting RTLSNK:


Just came by to say hello. Time to call it a night for me. Busy day tomorrow. Packing up for a family Thanksgiving in Asheville, NC next week. Would be nice if it snowed. :)

Looks like you've got a good chance for it up there..have fun for all of us stuck in down here in pcola(or lower alabama)
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
Good morning. I don't think anyone is on who can answer you but I guess at this time of year anything is possible although I think chances are very slim.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
.
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Could any of the blobs in the Caribbean develop?
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Quoting HurrikanEB:
Does anyone know what the farmer's almanac is calling for this winter. Specifically the new york area?

or where i might be able to find out online?
Link


Try this link.
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Does anyone know what the farmer's almanac is calling for this winter. Specifically the new york area?

or where i might be able to find out online?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Its amazing how few blog on here anymore....only a little over 200 post since yesterday.......that is unreal.......never seen it like this before. But, they have done this to themselves allowing the stuff that goes on here all the time....SAD SAD


In my experience, it's always been like this, for the most part. It's the price we pay during the off-season.
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From the NewYorkTimes:
[...]
These have not been the charismatic disasters that wreak havoc in a single, Hollywood-style demonstration of natural might. There has been no trembling earth, rampaging waves or swirling hurricane clouds. There has been no induction to local legend akin to the 67 twisters that rampaged across South Dakota on a single summer day seven years ago known as Tornado Tuesday.
Indeed, not a single death has been directly attributed to the disasters. Instead these comparably modest weather events have combined forces to inflict damage like a plague of grasshoppers: bit by bit. (And yes, the state had that too.)
[...]
Down the road, Gary Knock, 60, works the same section of land that once belonged to his great-grandfather. He said that he does not believe in global warming but that there is no missing the changes that have occurred here. He blames natural weather cycles for the milder winters, cooler summers and all the water.
"The flooding is increasingly getting worse." [...] "People are getting disgusted with it. Because it's not just some years and it's not just once a year. It's three times or four times a year. Extreme is normal -- that sounds crazy, but that is how it is."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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