Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...
Why do you cherry pick from my Quote? It takes away from the meaning of my comment. And I never said man couldnt have an influence on the earth, positive or negative. I said that we dont have a choice when it ends! No matter how many laws we make, to regulate mans immoralities against earth. It will never stop the END of the earth as you and I know it. For that to have any meaning, you have to Believe in God.
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Hi Y'all hope everyone is feeling the holiday coming up and taking appropriate measures.

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Complete Update

Not much happening out there.






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Thanks for saying that, God created this earth and He will not let it be destroyed.

Oh, would but that were true...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats what I was saying earlier today... or at least I was hoping for :)
looks like you may get your wish only good part about it iam not in a snowbelt area so i will hopefully see nothing but maybe a dusting of the white stuff 5 to 10 as it normally dumps heavy to our north
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL.. I sort of meant Redneck Central :)

I know BeachFoxx gets a mite perturbed when I mix them all together.
It is very interesting everywhere I have traveled..Red Necks are EVERYWHERE..!!!..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey big fish i have some good news for ya as things are at the moment and with a storm coming from the west looks as if grt lakes region may see there first significant LES starting on thursday and running for a few days at the present time i would say 30 to 60 cm of snow could fall in snow belts off the grt lakes starting at the end of thursday and running us into the weekend at the end of the week


Thats what I was saying earlier today... or at least I was hoping for :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

A floodwall on the National Mall?

Published: Sunday, November 21, 2010, 4:25 PM
The Washington Post The Washington Post



Eighty thousand cubic yards of dirt. Thirty steel girders. An 8-foot-high concrete wall.
national-mall-flooding-rendering.jpgView full sizeArmy Corps of Engineers renderingThe Army Corps of Engineers plans to erect a barrier to protect downtown Washington and the National Mall from flooding during a Hurricane Katrina-sized storm. Construction on the barrier will soon be under way.

All to hold back floodwaters that may, or may not, surge across the Mall in the next century or so.
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But in the apocalyptic, post-Hurricane Katrina world, no chances can be taken.

So government officials announced this week that work is about to start on a $9 million flood-control project that will alter the landscape of the Mall west of the Washington Monument to protect it, and part of Washington, from potential catastrophe.

The project will create a levee that would be erected across 17th Street below Constitution Avenue in the event of a huge flood.

It calls for the construction of large earthen berms, using tons of dirt, and the 8-foot walls on both sides of 17th Street.

It also will require engineers to sink a series of caissons 30 feet deep into the surface of 17th Street, where girders could be placed to support temporary panels to block floodwater.

Work is to begin next month and conclude next summer.

The project aims to protect large sections of downtown Washington from extensive river flooding, and to keep those sections from being declared a flood zone, which could require property owners to buy flood insurance. Such insurance runs about $1,500 a year, officials said.

The project is the result of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's nationwide review of flood zone maps after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and parts of the Gulf Coast in 2005.

When FEMA reviewed Washington's flood zones, it concluded that existing plans to use sandbags and jersey barriers to block floodwaters flowing north on 17th Street from the Potomac River and the Tidal Basin were inadequate.

FEMA foresaw a scenario in which a flood could inundate a huge crescent of downtown Washington from 17th Street and Constitution Avenue east to the Capitol and south toward Fort McNair.

And it proposed placing the area - including Federal Triangle, the east end of the Mall, and several Smithsonian museums - in the 100-year flood zone unless a better flood-prevention system was devised.

"It became necessary for us to finally protect this Mall with something other than sandbags," Washington, D.C., Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D, said at this week's announcement.

Working together, the city, the Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service and other agencies came up with the idea for a robust flood barrier at a "choke point" on 17th Street.

It is called a "post and panel" system, officials said. In the event of a flood, girders would be erected temporarily and eight-foot-tall aluminum panels assembled between the girders to block the surging water.

Although the project is deemed necessary, Norton expressed some dismay.

"I regret that, however minor, any structure is on this land," she said. "The notion of breaking this landscape is really heartbreaking to me and should be to all who value what the Mall stands for. But . . . there was nothing else to do."

By Michael E. Ruane, The Washington Post
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Quoting Orcasystems:


:)

.
hey big fish i have some good news for ya as things are at the moment and with a storm coming from the west looks as if grt lakes region may see there first significant LES starting on thursday and running for a few days at the present time i would say 30 to 60 cm of snow could fall in snow belts off the grt lakes starting at the end of thursday and running us into the weekend at the end of the week
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406
Quoting hydrus:
Florida and Alabama have the same amount of counties. All three states have a huge amount of American Indian history associated with them. There are a lot of similarities with these states demographics.Geographically, Florida is very different from Alabama and Tennessee. Northern Alabama encompasses part of the Cumberland Plateau where I live..I have to tell you it is beautiful here on the plateau and where I grew up in Florida(Captiva Island). I am grateful my parents moved there when I was young.


ROFL.. I sort of meant Redneck Central :)

I know BeachFoxx gets a mite perturbed when I mix them all together.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


They are basically the same state aren't they.. oh and don't forget Alabama. :)
Florida and Alabama have the same amount of counties. All three states have a huge amount of American Indian history associated with them. There are a lot of similarities with these states demographics.Geographically, Florida is very different from Alabama and Tennessee. Northern Alabama encompasses part of the Cumberland Plateau where I live..I have to tell you it is beautiful here on the plateau and where I grew up in Florida(Captiva Island). I am grateful my parents moved there when I was young.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
That was a terrible interception! You can't make that mistake at this point in the game.


Manning choked pretty badly in this game, 3 picks, one led to a field goal, another to end the game
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That was a terrible interception! You can't make that mistake at this point in the game.
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Quoting hydrus:
Lol..you sound like an old man when you post like that..:) Had a huge dinner at church today, so I figured I would do some studying on the computer and work out on my new weight set..Early Christmas present...It is suppose to be very wet here and then get cold.


haha thanks :PP

and thats pretty cool, gotta love something new to mess with ha

Yeah gonna be a chilly wet Thanksgiving
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
Lol..you sound like an old man when you post like that..:) Had a huge dinner at church today, so I figured I would do some studying on the computer and work out on my new weight set..Early Christmas present...It is suppose to be very wet here and then get cold.
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Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...


They are basically the same state aren't they.. oh and don't forget Alabama. :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
They are talking about the possibility of convection with the storm we are supposed to get tomorrow. Thundersnowstorms are pretty cool.:)


I love thundersnow!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I'm not sure who you mean by "the GW supporters"; the majority of climate scientists believe the warming atmosphere is causing a rapid decline in arctic sea ice coverage. (Antarctic sea ice is thinning in some areas, thickening in others, but scientists believe those, too, are caused by warming.)

So far as "mad-made", goes, while not as many scientists believe in AGW in particular as are convinced of GW in general, more and more are coming around all the time.

IOW: can you please provide some context? That is, what were the shows, who produced them, and who are the GW supporters of whom you speak?


I am trying to find the names again (TV programming does not go back in time) One was about the polar bears and loss of habitat, and the other was more specific on the loss of the ice sheet(mostly Norwegian content and facts)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting scott39:
Once you cut into the big energy profits, the cuts bleed bigger for us poor peoples lively hood. ALL Polticians and Big Energy still win and the middle class and poor folks get screwed. Spin it any way you want, but it ends up the same way everytime. As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.

Thanks for saying that, God created this earth and He will not let it be destroyed.
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
They are talking about the possibility of convection with the storm we are supposed to get tomorrow. Thundersnowstorms are pretty cool.:)
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Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup T-Dude..Some interesting weather coming.?..Maybe..Possibly...


yeah looks interesting,

watching the Colts game,


slim chance of a little severe weather the next couple of days
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Quoting tornadodude:


hey man,

how you doing?
Wuzup T-Dude..Some interesting weather coming.?..Maybe..Possibly...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam not angry i was just wondering what state you were in
My bad...I had your post mixed up with Orca,s..;0
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Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...


hey man,

how you doing?
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305. beell
Do we really have room for 50 million wild migratory bison? And is their management related to AGW?
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Quoting hydrus:
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...
iam not angry i was just wondering what state you were in
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where do you live hydrus what state
I live in Florida (S.W.) and in Tennessee(middle). I was only joking around when I typed post#296..Please do not be angry...
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Quoting Neapolitan:br / watch the link

faster and faster we are going

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406
Quoting Orcasystems:


Agree and disagree
I just finished watching a couple shows about the arctic ice pack. Even the GW supporters admit, the lack of ice is attributed to the change in ocean and upper air currents.

If this is a fact, as they themselves admit... why do they insist on using the icepack as an example of 'MAN MADE' climate change?

I'm not sure who you mean by "the GW supporters"; the majority of climate scientists believe the warming atmosphere is causing a rapid decline in arctic sea ice coverage. (Antarctic sea ice is thinning in some areas, thickening in others, but scientists believe those, too, are caused by warming.)

So far as "mad-made", goes, while not as many scientists believe in AGW in particular as are convinced of GW in general, more and more are coming around all the time.

IOW: can you please provide some context? That is, what were the shows, who produced them, and who are the GW supporters of whom you speak?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting hydrus:
Will you stop crying. You live like ten miles from the north pole. Your blood is probably the consistency of concrete after all these centuries..
where do you live hydrus what state
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406
Quoting Neapolitan:

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...


Agree and disagree
I just finished watching a couple shows about the arctic ice pack. Even the GW supporters admit, the lack of ice is attributed to the change in ocean and upper air currents.

If this is a fact, as they themselves admit... why do they insist on using the icepack as an example of 'MAN MADE' climate change?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
The CFL western Conference semi final is being played right now in Calgary (uncovered stadium)

Current Weather Updated: Sun, Nov. 21, 2010,
Calgary, AB Light snow

-17°C

Light snow

* Feels Like: -25
* Wind: N 13km/h
* Sunrise: 8:02
* Sunset: 16:40

* Relative Humidity: 71%
* Pressure: 101.91 kPa
* Visibility: 11.0 km
* Ceiling: 3600 ft

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting scott39:
As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting Orcasystems:
Its Freakking snowing.... AGAIN!!!
Will you stop crying. You live like ten miles from the north pole. Your blood is probably the consistency of concrete after all these centuries..
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Quoting Neapolitan:

You can try to claim that if you wish, but that's a false equivalence of the worst kind. Progressives and conservatives are perhaps nowhere so widely separated as they are over the issue of climate change. The former takes the scientific approach: we've warmed the planet, and need to stop before we make it even hotter. The latter takes the opposite approach: the planet is not warming, so doing anything that cuts into the profits of Big Energy is foolish and wrong.

Though you are right about progressives being a Party of No on one count: they say no more more setting environmental and fiscal policy based solely on the greedy desires of ExxonMobil, et al..
Once you cut into the big energy profits, the cuts bleed bigger for us poor peoples lively hood. ALL Polticians and Big Energy still win and the middle class and poor folks get screwed. Spin it any way you want, but it ends up the same way everytime. As far as GW, Im not God and Im not a scientist, but I do know this earth will end when it is suppossed to end.
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Its Freakking snowing.... AGAIN!!!
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link


Try this link.


Yes, it worked. Thank you.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.

You can try to claim that if you wish, but that's a false equivalence of the worst kind. Progressives and conservatives are perhaps nowhere so widely separated as they are over the issue of climate change. The former takes the scientific approach: we've warmed the planet, and need to stop before we make it even hotter. The latter takes the opposite approach: the planet is not warming, so doing anything that cuts into the profits of Big Energy is foolish and wrong.

Though you are right about progressives being a Party of No on one count: they say no more more setting environmental and fiscal policy based solely on the greedy desires of ExxonMobil, et al..
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Uh...

The CCX was a tool of major energy players

There are reasons why Dr. Hansen favors a carbon tax.

And, from a recent University of California Berkley study,

Fear tactics do not work wrt AGW

Or anything else for that matter. Both parties in this country have a fear based agenda... Reagan (whose administration embraced the Montreal Protocal on CFCs) at least recognized that one must be PRO freedom and not ANTI communist.

Both parties in this country are the parties of NO.


But as long as we have the support of Al Gore, we're sure to let the world know it's the US that's the culprit:

From the Hindustan Times:

"...Nobel Peace Prize winner and champion climate campaigner Al Gore outlined the doom the world is awaiting because of climate change and expressed disappointment at world leaders failing to clinch a treaty to fight the new global terror. Terming the logjam in climate negotiations as a “startling paradox”, the man, whose documentary, The Inconvenient Truth won an Oscar said the year 2010 had seen worst of climate change.

“There was severe drought in Russia and extreme flooding in Pakistan. What more evidence is required for action,” he said at HT Leadership Summit.

His worst fear was that after failure of Copenhagen climate summit the talks where heading towards another “zombie” like the Doha process on World Trade Organization negotiations. Gore’s solution for the problem was taking the issue back to the grassroots and creating a political storm to compel the leaders to react to climate change.

The former (vice) president blamed his own country United States – world second biggest carbon emitter — for failing to legislate a carbon law to curb emissions, resulting in failure of Copenhagen.

See - like I've been saying - it's all the fault of the US, and Al Gore agrees. Can't be the fault of China, they were given a pass at Copenhagen.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821






A very thick layer of snow across the Central Plains and Midwest US...warm pool of SSTs pushed by La Nina likely to drift into the Gulf of Carpentaria for the Australian cyclone season.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Winter storm season looks to be really picking up around the 1st for the SE with a dramatic increase in frequency if the GFS general trend is to be trusted.

I noticed that earlier today..what a La Nina!!
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For any of you Golfers out there.. you might enjoy #485 in the comments section of my blog :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Dakster:
Orca,

Are those pictures current conditions??

Looks like a long cold winter could be in store for you.


If your looking at the group of 4 together.. they are updated every time you refresh the blog. If your talking about the ones I posted.. they were taken yesterday... and yes it is still cold :(


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Orca,

Are those pictures current conditions??

Looks like a long cold winter could be in store for you.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10462
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with the end of cane season most disappear till early spring
a few hang out but not really many
ive seen docs blog in the dead of winter get 50 posts in 24 hrs
a few times even less than that
best time on the blog is the off season
quiet except for a GW rant every once in a while
when we get some severe or big winter storm
a few will check in
may even get a little busy
till event passes


Its actually a fun time.. you get some of the regulars on here chatting... and it can be hilarious :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
with the end of cane season most disappear till early spring
a few hang out but not really many
ive seen docs blog in the dead of winter get 50 posts in 24 hrs
a few times even less than that
best time on the blog is the off season
quiet except for a GW rant every once in a while
when we get some severe or big winter storm
a few will check in
may even get a little busy
till event passes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54406

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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