Globe has 3rd or 8th warmest October on record; year-to-date period warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2010

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October 2010 was the globe's eighth warmest October on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2010 the third warmest October on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - October, as the warmest such period on record. October 2010 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 2nd warmest on record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. UAH rated the year-to-date period, January-October, as the 2nd warmest such period in the satellite data record, behind 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from October 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Eleventh warmest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 11th warmest October in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The year-to-date period, January to October, was the 19th warmest such period on record. Two states had a top-ten warmest October on record--Wyoming and Montana. No states were colder than average.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., October 2010 was the 39th driest on record. Florida had its driest October in the 116-year record, and two other states had top-ten driest Octobers--Missouri and Texas. Nevada had its wettest October on record, and five other states had a top-ten wettest October--New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and California.

La Niña in the "moderate" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently experiencing moderate La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 1.3°C below average during the first two weeks of November, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.23°C below average (as of November 14.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming winter into spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. La Niña typically causes warm, dry winters over the southern portion of the U.S., with cooler and wetter than average conditions over the Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Mississippi Valleys states typically have wetter winters than usual during La Niña events. I'll have a full analysis of what La Niña might mean for the coming U.S. winter in a post next week.


Figure 2. Departure of surface temperature from average for the first half of November for the Arctic. Record low sea ice extent during this period has led to three "hot spots" with temperatures up to 12°C (22°F) above average where the sea ice loss was greatest. This unusual warmth is likely to have significant impacts on weather patterns across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the coming months. As I discussed in my post The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges last December, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern typically brings exceptionally cold and snowy winters to eastern North America and Europe. The winter of 2009 - 2010 saw the most negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950, which resulted in an upside-down winter in North America--unprecedented snowstorms and the coldest winter in 25 years in the U.S., and the warmest winter on record in Canada. The unusual negative NAO conditions may have been due, in part, to the unusually high Arctic sea ice loss the previous summer (3rd greatest on record.) The latest GFS forecast predicts that the NAO will go strongly negative for the remainder of November, resulting in a major cold blast for the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

October 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 3rd lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent in October 2010 was the third lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007 and 2009, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice extent as of today (November 19) is the lowest on record for this time of year, according to ice extent imagery at the University of Bremen. Ice volume in October was the lowest on record, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:

...and lifelong agnostic.

Sure do miss him...
Have you ever heard of a Christian Agnostic follower? An Author by the name of Leslie D. WEATHERhead wrote a book about it.
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Quoting Patrap:


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher


The book Cosmos was great! The show, was seasoning on top of it........ Here is the beginning......Start here with the link, very good stuff!

http://www.hulu.com/cosmos

And a later one :)

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Good night folks.
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Quoting doorman79:


Yea I don't get my feathers ruffled easy!


+1000
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Quoting Patrap:


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher


Indeed! I especially liked his book with Ann Druyan, Comet. True visionaries.
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Quoting xcool:
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
Hey Xcool! Where
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Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pat,

Started Thanksgiving with Chicken, andoulle and shrimp gumbo! With a side of fried alligator and frog legs! Yum!


Pass da tabasco and into the week we go.


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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.


Carl was one of a Kind and a great teacher
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


"Preserve and cherish the pale blue dot." Seems we humans have a hard time doing that.



Amen, my friend.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The two tone triple talk on that !!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


"Preserve and cherish the pale blue dot." Seems we humans have a hard time doing that.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
362 doorman79 "...With a side of fried alligator and frog legs!"

Darn*you. Gone for years without thinkin' about 'em, and now I'm feelin' deprived.
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does anyone know how to make a time-lapsed video? I have one that I wanted to be made into one, but just not sure how to do it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Patrap:
Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)


...and lifelong agnostic.

Sure do miss him...
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Quoting mossyhead:
You do not know your Bible. He will remake the universe and the earth.

Uh...it took four years of theological seminary to convince me otherwise. ;-)
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Should have thought to make the sweet potato pie! lol
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Quoting Patrap:
If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)



Hey Pat,

Started Thanksgiving with Chicken, andoulle and shrimp gumbo! With a side of fried alligator and frog legs! Yum!
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361. xcool
i'm wait for new model runs so i being back later ;))
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Quoting beell:


oh. then please forgive my obesity!
;-)


Or verbosity. LMAO! Nice.
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Quoting Patrap:
If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)



Hey Pat! I've read many of Carl's books. The world is poorer, for his absence.
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358. xcool
from southeast to nola .maybee
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Quoting xcool:
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
when
& where?
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356. beell
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol


oh. then please forgive my obesity!
;-)
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol


Operating.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
354. xcool
wintry precipitation. 3 run in row gfs modelss
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Nice graphic, Skye.

Obtuse should not be confused with obese. lol
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352. xcool
hihi
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If you want to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe.

Carl Sagan

US astronomer & popularizer of astronomy (1934 - 1996)

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".


They = the irrational ones, is what I think she meant.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, would but that were true...
You do not know your Bible. He will remake the universe and the earth.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

"We hold these truths to be self-evident". credit: our Founding Fathers.


Tuchie!

Or however you spell it lol

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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Skyepony:
I was looking through the notable October events in the entry. Many 50 year or more events. Lot of flooding. Well more than 1 million people evacuated. These tornado path pic was worth seeing..



that's pretty bizarre
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
345. Skyepony (Mod)
I was looking through the notable October events in the entry. Many 50 year or more events. Lot of flooding. Well more than 1 million people evacuated. These tornado path pic was worth seeing..

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344. beell
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse...


Watch your fat intake, excercise, and drink plenty of water and you should be fine.
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"We hold these truths to be self-evident". credit: our Founding Fathers.
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Quoting doorman79:


Wasn't that a quote from Abe Lincoln! just kidding! What we talking bout hmmmm lol!
Speaking of Abe Lincoln, Stephen Spillberg is making a movie about him, and Daniel Day Lewis is playing the part.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Is it ever "safe"?


Yea I don't get my feathers ruffled easy!
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Quoting doorman79:
Is it safe to come in?



Is it ever "safe"?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".
Quoting Chicklit:


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.


Wasn't that a quote from Abe Lincoln! just kidding! What we talking bout hmmmm lol!
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Quoting doorman79:
Is it safe to come in?
Cmon In!
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and now we bring God, feminism, and whatever else into the debate.

on that note, I'm out

have a good one,
behave,

and respect other people's opinions (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Chicklit:


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.


I'm trying hard to not be obtuse. Perhaps I am not understanding "they".
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Is it safe to come in?
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Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Irrational to what?
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Explain, please.


Actually, they don't even claim it;
they don't have to - it's self-evident.
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Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
Im not sure if your calling me irrational or not?LOL
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Quoting Chicklit:


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.


Explain, please.
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Quoting scott39:
Why do you cherry pick from my Quote? It takes away from the meaning of my comment. And I never said man couldnt have an influence on the earth, positive or negative. I said that we dont have a choice when it ends! No matter how many laws we make, to regulate mans immoralities against earth. It will never stop the END of the earth as you and I know it. For that to have any meaning, you have to Believe in God.


I have observed that people will cite God or Woman's Prerogative when irrational.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

For those who are under the assumption that mankind can't alter the environment much in any meaningful and permanent or semi-permanent way, I'd direct you look at Haiti, or Chernobyl, or the Amazon, or the passenger pigeon, or the wild buffalo, or mountaintop-removal mining, or fracking, or...
Why do you cherry pick from my Quote? It takes away from the meaning of my comment. And I never said man couldnt have an influence on the earth, positive or negative. I said that we dont have a choice when it ends! No matter how many laws we make, to regulate mans immoralities against earth. It will never stop the END of the earth as you and I know it. For that to have any meaning, you have to Believe in God.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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