Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a modest increase in thunderstorm activity this morning, but is battling dry air, and the odds are against the system becoming Tropical Storm Virginie. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is increasing, and a low-level circulation is getting better defined. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear and warm SSTs may allow for some slow organization of 94L over the next few days, if the storm can wall off the dry air at mid-levels that has been interfering with development. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 - 10 mph for the next three days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. The models are not showing much development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%. The Hurricane Hunter mission into 94L scheduled for today has been canceled, but is slated to go on Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not be drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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195. Skyepony (Mod)
Jason..It's all Hood:P

These waves are incredible! Surfers ride massive 50-foot waves off Ireland
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I have a reason for why the NHC kept 94L at 20% is because the T storm and showers have increased over the center although minimal and it is also organising it self slowly

well sorry IKE I thought that is what you intended when you posted that
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191. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
I killed the blog!


Actually time killed it. The time on the tropical season ran out for the lower 48, 2 months ago.

I hope it's finished for everyone.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I think the season is over for the us. There may be some small something spin up in the carb or a semi trop east of bermuda but basically, I think its done
I think so too and also pray so. Mexico and St Lucia etc received more than enough damage and lives lost.
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I killed the blog!
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I think the season is over for the us. There may be some small something spin up in the carb or a semi trop east of bermuda but basically, I think its done
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think you are right. It's time to let go of 2010 and move on to postseason analysis, the playoffs and superbowl..... Wait,.... I think I am confusing the tropics and the NFl. Never mind.


Goodmorning I need coffee!

Carb dist is almost dead.

I was almost fead once, 30 years ago
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186. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
IKE you always believe everything they say well let me tell you I am waiting for them to be correct and it has been a long time and a long future it will be but anyway look I never trusted that plus it always changes and most times drastically so it may seem dead now but this afternoon it may very well look healthy and strong


Where did I say that I believed that? Please answer.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


Still at 20% and I really thought it would say near 0% this morning the way it is looking.
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IKE you always believe everything they say well let me tell you I am waiting for them to be correct and it has been a long time and a long future it will be but anyway look I never trusted that plus it always changes and most times drastically so it may seem dead now but this afternoon it may very well look healthy and strong
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys I was just looking at the models and I am not liking the BAMD model even more so between 72 and 168 hours but anyway I expect the rest of the models will follow soon
I don't think anything will come of it.
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182. IKE
SQUAWK...thanks for the heads up, but the rain is moving east of here now.

As far as 94L...

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NW
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU AND REACH THE WATERS N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT.
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good morning guys I was just looking at the models and I am not liking the BAMD model even more so between 72 and 168 hours but anyway I expect the rest of the models will follow soon
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Good morning. A lovely 55 degrees here.
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Afew hours old but if not a closed low, very close to being one, though weak.
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Wake up Ike!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160847Z - 161115Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...PRIMARILY AFTER 10-11Z OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
WWD AND INTERSECTS A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF GULF SHORES SWWD TO JUST OFF SERN TIP OF LA. ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO AL AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
70F DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF E-W BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND IS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA. REMAINING PORTIONS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL AFTER 11Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WHERE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES
ONSHORE. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ONLY LIMITED INLAND
PROGRESS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2010
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Whether or not it forms into a TS, a lot of rain will fall and can be just as destructive.

The Mosquito Coast will be full of newly hatched ones very soon.
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I think 94L will not make it to TD status. Conditions are only marginally favorable and convection is almost all gone. Pressures have risen in that region as well. I believe the 2010 season has come to an end imo.
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Not getting popups on other sites I go to. One time I got 14 pop up pages when opening a blog here.

Not sure if the extra features are worth 10 bucks or not, to be honest.


I have adblockplus already. I'll try the spywareblaster.

A nasty bit of rogue software "Windows Security Essentials 2011" has been making the rounds in my circle. It's one of those fake programs that turns off your security software and flashes fake security alerts on your computer. Malwarebytes was the only security software I have that took care of it.
Even if you don't run it, I think it is good to update your security software daily. And if you get that rogue software, run the malwarebytes immediately.


I got this one. If you have windows, restart your computer in basic mode (F8 when booting), then go to start\user\whatever you are\AppData\local\temp\ and then eliminate the *.exe that starts with numbers. Then run your security software to get the rest of the files.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Skyepony:
18W & 98S are gone.. Model performance on 94L is very similar to Tomas. CMC is out preforming with 21nm error. Was a little farther off yesterday. GFS ~72, has shown some skill (if we throw out yesterday). I still think Belize might bear the brunt. Roatan should see some rain from it too. HWRF is doing well so far on intensity (current 8kt error in the last 24hrs), it's leaning for a fairly weak storm.
Will it be strong enough to get named?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
171. Skyepony (Mod)
18W & 98S are gone.. Model performance on 94L is very similar to Tomas. CMC is out preforming with 21nm error. Was a little farther off yesterday. GFS ~72, has shown some skill (if we throw out yesterday). I still think Belize might bear the brunt. Roatan should see some rain from it too. HWRF is doing well so far on intensity (current 8kt error in the last 24hrs), it's leaning for a fairly weak storm.
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Wind Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook


Overnight: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South southwest wind between 14 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday: A chance of rain before 11am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Snow level 5300 feet lowering to 4700 feet. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a southwest wind between 24 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
yeah, that would do it. You getting any weather your way Orca?


A little on the breezy side... and rain

Wind Warning

Details

A deepening low pressure system currently over the north coast will track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds up to 90 km/h will continue over West Vancouver Island tonight. Additionally, westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h will continue over Greater Victoria and the Southern Gulf Islands tonight and develop late this evening over metro Vancouver. Winds will gradually diminish early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
BTW...love your commercial!

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting Orcasystems:


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
yeah, that would do it. You getting any weather your way Orca?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting wxvoyeur:


We can't control our borders! ;)


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting wxvoyeur:


We can't control our borders! ;)
lol! Send beer, not snow!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Dang Canucks are sending me their weather again..:(


We can't control our borders! ;)
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Dang Canucks are sending me their weather again..:(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IDAHO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH 3
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH THIS
STORM AS WELL.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
That wave East of islands 84 hrs... Close to Venezuela....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so what is this sunlinepr maybe a possible invest (95L)


For the moment, just a trop. Wave..... checking models....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. and Enjoy the Upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday if nothing significant forms in the tropics after 94L comes ashore in Central America........... :)
I hope we don't get any tropical turkeys bruing this Thanksgiving and if there is I hope a cold front wil gobble gobble gobble them up!
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so what is this sunlinepr maybe a possible invest (95L)
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
well any way this is what they said in our forcast last bit

OUTLOOK:(An increase in cloudiness and shower activity from Wednesday morning as cloudiness associated with a broad area of low pressure system over the southwest Caribbean drifts west to northwest) this is important anyway I am going to work tomorrow so by then we should have an idea of what's going on
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Summary

Westerly winds of 60 to 80 km/h will develop over southern sections of Greater Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and metro Vancouver tonight. Northwest winds up to 90 km/h will develop over west coast Vancouver Island this evening. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Details

A deepening low pressure system is forecast to move from the north coast this evening and track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds reaching 90 km/h are expected over west coast Vancouver Island this evening and westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h are forecast to develop over Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and Vancouver tonight. Winds will abate early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9780
On 94L it is unlikely to develop. Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is inhibiting develop, suppressing thunderstorm development and 94L has lost all major model support.
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winter weather blog for 2011

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53513
give it some time KEEPEROFTHEGATE soon it will look deadly
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I thought that Augusta ME might have had a high of 32 F. With the 32 becoming 32 C which equals 90 F.

But it seems the high in Augusta ME was 47 F today. So just some fluky error.

Spywareblaster seems to be working. Thanks.


Great. Update now, then every couple of weeks.
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I have to ask: where are some of you seeing a more poleward shift in 94L's future? CIMSS steering data still shows that low- to mid-level tropospheric ridging is sufficient to produce a slow WNW motion.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53513

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.