Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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253. Neapolitan
2:59 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
252. aspectre
2:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Ifn ya been waiting for a new blog before posting, NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
251. Orcasystems
2:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
250. stormwatcherCI
2:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

...and the center has shifted east to 77.3 from yesterday's 78.4. And while I don't know whether it will last, for the moment it's showing some definite spin on satellite loops.
Recon for today rescheduled to tomorrow.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
249. Orcasystems
2:24 PM GMT on November 15, 2010


Click to Enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
248. Orcasystems
2:23 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
valley tracker windy system too later wed and thur 60 kmh winds with thursday being higher maybe to 80 kmh for our region rain no snow sorry orca


I have faith :)
It will snow in the centre of the Universe soon :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
247. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop



valley tracker windy system too later wed and thur 60 kmh winds with thursday being higher maybe to 80 kmh for our region rain no snow sorry orca
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
246. beell
2:08 PM GMT on November 15, 2010

SPC Day 1
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
245. aspectre
2:03 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
223. GeoffreyWPB " AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO ... Link "


Now if we can just train it to do a barrel roll at the same time...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
244. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
GOM IR Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
243. weathermanwannabe
2:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Morning.........Some much needed rain headed towards the Gulf States this am.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
242. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:57 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Tropical Cyclone Reports

Tropical Depression TWO

Tropical Depression FIVE

Tropical Storm COLIN

Tropical Storm FIONA
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32824
241. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Seems to be a script error maybe.

The message disappears when ya re-fresh the page.

I sent wunderblogadmin a note this morning about them
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
240. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:53 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Why do the people get the ban messages, but aren't really banned?

I am, are you actually banned for a while?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32824
239. Patrap
1:46 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
13,000 hours divided by 24 = 541.666667 days
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
ya i know just freaks me out when i see em and the 12000 hrs thing thats like the end of next season

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
237. Patrap
1:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Those ban bugs are going out en masse then self deleting KOTG.

Ignore them
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
235. largeeyes
1:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Thanks sunlinepr!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
234. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:36 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
just got this message again

Banned
WunderBlogAdmin has banned you from the Wunder Blogs. The ban is in effect for the next 12945 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Inappropriate behavior in chat room

All blog content is judged according to the Community Standards. Please make sure that you have read and understood them.

If you believe this is an error, please contact the Administrator.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
233. Neapolitan
1:31 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Winds still at 25 mph but pressure has dropped 1 mb and now classified as a low instead of a disturbance.

...and the center has shifted east to 77.3 from yesterday's 78.4. And while I don't know whether it will last, for the moment it's showing some definite spin on satellite loops.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
232. largeeyes
1:30 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Blue sky! Morning all!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
231. stormwatcherCI
1:29 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well its safe to say its not going to the GOM or FLA
Everything I have read agrees it will stay confined to the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
230. stormwatcherCI
1:28 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
go west till land then poof disappear
That would be nice.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:26 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
go west till land then poof disappear
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
228. stormwatcherCI
1:24 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated:

Looks like BAMD pinpoints Haiti again. I highly doubt that will verify. At least I pray it won't but this time of year they tend to move more NE so you never know.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated:


well its safe to say its not going to the GOM or FLA
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
226. GeoffreyWPB
1:22 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Just updated:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
225. galexcelis
1:19 PM GMT on November 15, 2010

Guys:

I live in Caracas, Venezuela.

Last night we had heavy thunderstorms, L94 related even we're a lot of miles northeast the storm...

I'll be updating my weather post and posting here too conditions here...

See u!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
224. stormwatcherCI
1:10 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO
Winds still at 25 mph but pressure has dropped 1 mb and now classified as a low instead of a disturbance.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
223. GeoffreyWPB
1:07 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
AL, 94, 2010111512, 121N, 773W, 20, 1008, LO
Link
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
222. GeoffreyWPB
1:04 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
From Miami NWS Discussion:

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
PUSHING IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT AND BRIEFLY
STALLING IT JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH GIVING A SECOND PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT AND MOVING IT
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA AND SO NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. WL EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT BEST. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
STILL REMAIN WITHIN FEW DEGREES OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES
EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11540
221. stormwatcherCI
12:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
Actually this is the most organized 94L ever looked, jmo
It is firing up some intense cloud tops. Looks much better than yesterday when it was at 40%.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
220. Patrap
12:46 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
325
fxus64 klix 151056
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
456 am CST Monday Nov 15 2010


Short term...
water vapor imagery shows a very dynamic pattern with a series of
upper level speed maxima and middle/upper level vorticity maxima all
lined up to move through the central Gulf Coast region today and
tonight. The resultant positive vorticity advection and upper divergence will interact with
a deep moist air column and a stalled frontal boundary that is
expected to drift north over inland sections of the forecast area
today.


Radar loops show an increase in moderate to heavy rain over about
the western half of the area...and this rain will continue to
overspread most of the forecast area this morning. Embedded
convective elements are seen in both radar and satellite...so
expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to mix in through the
day. A few of the thunderstorms could have mini-Bow like
structures that could produce strong wind gusts approaching severe
levels given the cell movement will be around 35 miles per hour. In
addition...cannot rule out a couple brief tornadoes or waterspouts
near and south of the frontal boundary. Storm Prediction Center indicates a see text
/5 percent severe potential/ over most of the forecast area today
and tonight...and a mesoscale discussion has been issued for
severe potential across southern Louisiana early this morning.


Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will occur today...and have
gone with the HPC quantitative precipitation forecast of 1 to 2 plus inches today and tonight.
Locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible where repeat
thunderstorm activity occurs. Any flood producing rainfall should
remain isolated due to the dry antecedent conditions...however...
cannot rule out localized street/urban flooding.


Most of the active weather will occur before midnight
tonight...then rainfall and thunderstorms should quickly diminish
from the west overnight into Tuesday morning as the frontal
boundary moves back southeast as a cold front. Cloud cover will
decrease Tuesday afternoon and much drier air will bring lower
relative humidity back to the region as the middle level trough moves
through. Surface high pressure will bring mostly clear skies and
rather cool temperatures Tuesday night...but no freeze or frost is
expected in the wake of this cold front.


Long term...
another shortwave trough will pass through the middle Mississippi
Valley late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will bring a
reinforcing cold front through the forecast area late Wednesday
night. There will be very little moisture available to work with
this front...so am not including any mention of rain. High
pressure will rebuild over the area Thursday into Friday...then
the high will move east Friday night through early next week. A
general zonal to southwest flow pattern in the middle/upper levels
will prevail...and temperatures are likely to rise above normal
by Sunday as high pressure builds and heights rise over the Gulf
of Mexico. 22/dew point


&&
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
219. stormpetrol
12:46 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Actually this is the most organized 94L ever looked, jmo
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
218. stormpetrol
12:44 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
217. stormwatcherCI
12:43 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SAT 13 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.0 AND 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 15/1315Z
D. 12.5N AND 79.0W
E. 15/1700-2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
216. Patrap
12:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SAT 13 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.0 AND 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
WVW

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
215. stormwatcherCI
12:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would guess no recon today:




IDK, doesn't really look all that bad. It is small but has consolidated nicely since yesterday.
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214. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
I would guess no recon today:

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213. Patrap
12:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
212. IKE
12:12 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Models on 94L....Link


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
211. stormwatcherCI
12:11 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
94l though appearing alot smaller has a well defined spin this am
I believe it has started to consolidate.

Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
210. stormpetrol
12:02 PM GMT on November 15, 2010
94l though appearing alot smaller has a well defined spin this am
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
209. surfmom
11:54 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Morning -- checking to see what's being served this week.

Got some waves in my future : )
Surf Report - AuraSurf/Micah Weaver
A front will move into the gulf and stall out this week. When that happens there's that chance a little groundswell can come in from the boundary. To me, this week looks like this: Late in the day on Tuesday we could see a knee to thigh S windswell at best S facers. Then Wednesday mid-day a small thigh high glassy W groundswell may show up depending on the strength of the winds in the gulf behind the front. I give the small g-swell a 50/50 shot. Not anything to skip work/school for but something to keep an eye on. Thursday maybe a small knee to thigh NW wind and swell from the weak front washing through.

Gulf Waters presently 67degree's brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
no choice - wetsuit time

off to work - always pleased it's horses not humans
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
208. IKE
11:33 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
378 hours...
27 minutes...and it's over....for 2010...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
207. aspectre
11:01 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Worse's been happenin' to alotta us folks recently. We been baaaaaad boys.
Fortunately we can all come back for the HurricaneSeason of 2012, the Mayan End of Times.
Wouldn' wanna miss that, nosirree bob.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
206. HurricaneSwirl
10:50 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
I just got banned for 1300 hours for posting an off-topic image. I haven't even posted at all in the last month or so. Issue seems to be solved now though.. >.>
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
205. aspectre
8:20 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
2010111406 ... 113N, 773W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111412 ... 116N, 776W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111418 ... 120N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB
2010111500 ... 121N, 784W, 20, 1008, LO
2010111506 ... 119N, 782W, 20, 1008, LO
Invest94L data from ATCF
14Nov 06amGMT - 11.3n77.3w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
14Nov 12pmGMT - 11.6n77.6w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
14Nov 06pmGMT - 12.0n78.0w - 20knots - 1009mb - disturbance
15Nov 12amGMT - 12.1n78.4w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
15Nov 06amGMT - 11.9n78.2w - 20knots - 1008mb - low
Interesting retrograde...

...making this particular revision of previous coordinates...
(before-revision coordinates shown as unlabeled&unconnected dots at
11.1n77.0w, 11.2n77.3w, 11.5n77.8w, 11.9n78.3w, 12.2n78.6w
with after-revision coordinates shown as connected dots at
11.1n77.0w, 11.3n77.3w, 11.6n77.6w, 12.0n78.0w, 12.1n78.4w, 11.9n78.2w )
...a pointless exercise since (the appearance of the southeastward jag nearly guarantees that) they are going to be reevaluated&revised (at least) once again (to smooth the curve for computer modelers).

Copy&paste 11.1n76.7w, 11.1n76.8w, 11.1n76.9w, 11.1n77.0w, 11.3n77.3w-11.6n77.6w, 11.6n77.6w-12.0n78.0w, 12.0n78.0w-12.1n78.4w, 12.1n78.4w-11.9n78.2w, gja, adz, pva, baq into the GreatCircleMapper for a map covering more area to look at relevant coastlines as well as directions and distances travelled over the last 24hours.
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203. sunlinepr
6:01 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Gnite All....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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