Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Afternoon y'all

Just on a quick fly by to say Hello to the Gator Nation, from the Palmetto State ;) Spurrier, Lattimore, and the Gamecocks earned themselves a replay date with Cam in the dome.

I see 94 is headed westward...

<--------
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i got one from admin for 11500 hrs for bad comments in chat iam like ok that was yesterday have not had it happen since last night yet today
LOL. I got one came up last night for 12,000 hours for the same thing but when I refreshed it was gone.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Call me crazy but I think there's a shot that 94L develops today and we have a TD by 11PM tonight.


Umm ok, I'll bite... your crazy.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Call me crazy but I think there's a shot that 94L develops today and we have a TD by 11PM tonight.
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I think it separated into two blobs there is definitely 94L and something completely different that spawned NE of it
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?


Cool...Cold.

Rainy...Snowy.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?
here is latest gfs 850 and surface precip


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
What do you have on weather in the NE later on this week?
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i got one from admin for 11500 hrs for bad comments in chat iam like ok that was yesterday have not had it happen since last night yet today
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Does it appear that the system has reformed farther to the north and east of where it was originally plotted? That burst of convection north of where the original plot is, is odd.

Lately alot of storms have been forming in that exact area, it seems odd that systems are forming in area that is systematically dead to storms this time of year.
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here is mine still no snow but getting cool

Today A few showers ending this afternoon then cloudy. Wind becoming west 20 km/h late this afternoon. High 11. Tonight Clearing this evening. Wind west 20 km/h becoming light late this evening. Low plus 1. Monday Sunny with cloudy periods. Wind becoming southwest 20 km/h early in the afternoon. High 11. Tuesday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. High 10. Wednesday Periods of rain. Windy. Low 8. High 10. Thursday Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Windy. Low plus 1. High plus 5. Friday A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 1. High plus 3. Saturday Cloudy. Low minus 1. High plus 4.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
I got one for 13,000 Hours and well...

I sent it to da recycle Banned Bin.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Orcasystems:


No, but it is wet out... nothing new for this time of year. You will get snow long before we do :) if we do.....
looks like a lot of wet for you this week

Today Rain changing to periods of drizzle this morning. High 10. Tonight Cloudy with 60 percent chance of drizzle. Low 7. Monday Showers. Becoming windy early in the evening. High 11. Tuesday Cloudy. Low 6. High 11. Wednesday Rain. Low 7. High 11. Thursday Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. High 10. Friday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. High 7. Saturday Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. High 7.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your still just a little ray of sunshine on this rainy day :)

EDIT: You gotta love seeing things like this :)

This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12100 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Off-topic.


That is quite a bit of time there Orca. Was that you?

It's only around 505 days. Just time to see the end of hurricane season 2011.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

I think the low level swirl can be picked out easy on visible at around 11.5N/77.5W, but looks like a more NW/N drift to me at the moment
too much dry air nw best to go west move over land and end it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
snowing yet big fish


No, but it is wet out... nothing new for this time of year. You will get snow long before we do :) if we do.....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:

I think the low level swirl can be picked out easy on visible at around 11.5N/77.5W, but looks like a more NW/N drift to me at the moment
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
snowing yet big fish
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)


Your still just a little ray of sunshine on this rainy day :)

EDIT: You gotta love seeing things like this :)

This blog's author or an administrator has banned you from this Wunder Blog. The ban is in effect for the next 12100 hours.

WunderBlogAdmin has left you a message related to this ban: Off-topic.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Chicklit:


rofl. yeah, this one's about to wrap.
5 more days and we will have models for whats left which appears not much
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)


rofl. yeah, this one's about to wrap.
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Astro - lol...

Neo - I see the glass is always half full for you.
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Just 198 days, 7 hours, and 23 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway! :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Is that EST or CST ?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
21. IKE
16 days...
13 hours...
38 minutes and it's over...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
its almost time to pack it in and move on to winter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
much ado about nothing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
18. IKE
NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. ...

It's actually 30%.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That 94L has a huge anticyclone over it...more flooding for areas already devastated by the outer rainbands of TD Tomas.


I just don't think it has enough room left to become much.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:

Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


That 94L has a huge anticyclone over it...more flooding for areas already devastated by the outer rainbands of TD Tomas.
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Quoting Dakster:
Astro -

I see you are a poet
and just didn't know it.


About the extent of my rythming ability...


I suppose I could turn non-rhyming lyrics into rhyming schemes.
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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2010 Storm Tracks
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Thanks Dr. Masters..
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Astro -

I see you are a poet
and just didn't know it.


About the extent of my rythming ability...
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For anyone still interested about my Songs for Haiti program (see my blog), here are a collection of sample titles in French of the lyrics that are yet to be written. Submissions are welcome in English, French, Haitian Creole, Spanish or Latin, but please make sure they rhyme.

On a suffirent en silence
La prochaine vie
Souvenir
La rue en avant
Survivants ou victimes
L’ouragan
Le nouveau monde
Des ruinés chorales
Le grand faim
Séquelle de les désespéras
Le toit et le tenon
Eau
Béni soit l’Éternel
Orage sur l’horizon
Les étoiles brillantes
L’unité de l’esprit
Une cité détruit
L’école et l’hôpital
Job
Restauration
Toujours courageux
L’espoir
Demain
Pas de kolgat
Un crayon
La tente de vie
Le clair loin
Il était là et voilà
Voir sur la distance
Les inspirations
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Wow...This needs to go away now...The kids are out of school for a week starting next Friday...A week with the kids stuck inside wouldn't be good for anyone...
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yes Tampa i made mention earlier on on this strong tropical wave so late in the season. you are quuite right the islands have to watch it very closely. the CMC has it as a low close to the islands on tuesday
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Thanks for the update... Was wondering if this could be the second busiest season since records were kept...

GOOD MORNING all!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The Islands needs to watch currently near 10N 49W, Strong 850mb Vorticity and good Vorticity at all levels. Also has some Convergence Starting.


Looks ominous, needs to be watched well.
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Thanks Doc :)
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The Islands needs to watch currently near 10N 49W, Strong 850mb Vorticity and good Vorticity at all levels. Also has some Convergence Starting.

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Thanks Doc!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.