Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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the W coast will be seeing the 1st real snow of the seasone all so the snow levels in WA and OR will be down too about sea level
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102. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
A LOW CENTER OF 1009 MB NEAR 12N78W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W TO WNW
THROUGH THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN THU INTO FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE LONG
PERIOD N SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

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Quoting hurricaneeye:


Is this true?


Notice he said "may relocate further east ", in good form. His opinion. Nobody can say if it's true or not yet.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690


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Quoting outlookchkr:
I see that possibility but don't you see shear and dry air a big factor if it does head more northward towards you guys?

Depends! see map posted above!
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AL, 94, 2010111412, 115N, 778W, 20, 1009, DB
AL, 94, 2010111418, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB
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12.1N/80W 94L ???
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma
Looks like 11.5 77.8 For new reformed center.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Was thinking the same thing if it stays stationary or moves/meander slowly the more chance of it getting pulled northward, I think we should watch it closely might might be a late surprise yet! I think the odds are up to 50-60% at 7 pm and a TD tomorrow, jmo though.
I see that possibility but don't you see shear and dry air a big factor if it does head more northward towards you guys?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
94L is moving NW.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma

Was thinking the same thing if it stays stationary or moves/meander slowly the more chance of it getting pulled northward, I think we should watch it closely might might be a late surprise yet! I think the odds are up to 50-60% at 7 pm and a TD tomorrow, jmo though.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma


Is this true?
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hey guys 94L may relocate further east near where the strongest vort at 850 is and I think it will not follow the models and maybe go the other way maybe following tracks like paloma
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That's an enormous system and a tremendous potential for major flooding. Also watch that Texas Low near Brownsville, as it could bring Southern Ontario a significant (3 - 10 inch) snowstorm around Nov. 17.
no snow astro but some rain for sure
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep. Whats up?

BTW 94L becoming better organized..

I thought I put too many people on ignore lol.
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Blog Update

Invest 94L looking a bit better today
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All the talk here is about the reversal. Definitely stirring things up. The waves here from Tomas were crazy apparently.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.



That's an enormous system and a tremendous potential for major flooding. Also watch that Texas Low near Brownsville, as it could bring Southern Ontario a significant (3 - 10 inch) snowstorm around Nov. 17.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Pretty good Model consensus for the most part:





Looks like a landfall in northeastern Nicaragua in 3 days.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
GASP!!!!
The weather network website obviously is having major problems... their computer is FUBAR on Nov 26 & 28. I have no idea what that funny shaped white thingie is coming out of the clouds..but it does not look like rain.


Ahh, don't worry about it. GFS is giving my location roughly 14 INCHES (36 cm) of FUBAR by the end of that forecast period. But, I didn't know that TWN had that 14-day high AND low temp forecast graphical trend feature! :)
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94L needs a closed circulation 1st lol
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This morning's ASCAT pass:

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wow 94L looks amazing TD tomorrow I think
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?


nope

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?


Yep. Whats up?

BTW 94L becoming better organized..
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?
Everyone is tired of TCs in the South West Caribbean! LOL
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...anybody here?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.


Did that blob of clouds southeast of Jamaica split from 94L? Or is it something else?
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Slowly getting better organized. Vorticity at the 850mb level has been improving throughout the day, and as opposed to yesterday, is vertically stacked through 500mb.

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Pretty good Model consensus for the most part:



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Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Still at 25mph? Dang. I thought it would be at 30mph by now.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Not too bad even if I have to say so myself;), just off by a degree anywhere you slice it!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we have a closed low with 94L from the above observations I posted closest to the COC at 11.8N/79.2W by best guesstimate drifting WNW/NW

ATCF just out says 11.9N/78.3W. Still at 20 knots/1009mb...

AL, 94, 2010111418, , BEST, 0, 119N, 783W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Suns out! Woot! Howdy from Bonaire.
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I think we have a closed low with 94L from the above observations I posted closest to the COC at 11.8N/79.2W by best guesstimate drifting WNW/NW
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Cartagena, CO (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 11 sec ago
28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 18 km/h / 5.1 m/s from the SSW

Pressure: 1011 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 33 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 457 m
Mostly Cloudy 2133 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1 m

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Panama, PM (Airport)
Updated: 40 min 16 sec ago
27 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the NW

Pressure: 1013 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 30 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 487 m
Mostly Cloudy 2438 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 m

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San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 19 sec ago
28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 22 °C
Wind: 17 km/h / 4.6 m/s from the North

Pressure: 1012 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 31 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds: Few 670 m
Mostly Cloudy 2743 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m

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I think we might see 60% for 94L at 7pm.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting 7544:
new area to watch just south of hati today ?

Trouble brewing in the Caribbean!!
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56. 7544
new area to watch just south of hati today ?
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looks like our sun is picking up with solar activity with more on the left to come into the picture interesting considering a while ago there was nothing is this the sign for building activity
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
GASP!!!!
The weather network website obviously is having major problems... their computer is FUBAR on Nov 26 & 28. I have no idea what that funny shaped white thingie is coming out of the clouds..but it does not look like rain.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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