Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Hey! Where's PrivateIdaho? maybe he could answer this question....It's true that, at least in PR, people is talking about a weather controller antenna that are located in Canada, USA and one in Lajas, PR? I think they named it as H.A.A.R.P.
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.


Either will do. In My Onion, opinions are best served with a grain of salt.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
151. Orcasystems
3:09 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
150. Orcasystems
3:07 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.





Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
149. DontAnnoyMe
3:00 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?


They have an out:

NHC Text Product Descriptions

"The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development out to 48 hours. It includes (when possible) a nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook.


Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
148. largeeyes
2:58 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
147. atmoaggie
2:56 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Supercomputing for a Changing Planet: Simulation and Climate Change


Of course, there are many non weather-related uses as well.
"In fact, computer simulation is one of the few tools available to scientists and policy makers for understanding climate change. Numerical models allow us to validate our evolving understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, but the models are so complex that ordinary computers will not suffice. This is precisely the kind of challenge that supercomputers were designed to address, and supercomputing is a vital part of the climate science tool chest. "
Actually going to SC10 on Tuesday...should be fun.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
146. GrillinInTheEye
2:55 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.
Member Since: September 12, 2010 Posts: 70 Comments: 10822
145. PSLFLCaneVet
2:47 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Ovid and I always discussed the (weird) weather that occurs over the Mediterranean Sea. When I said he was wrong, he accused me of stomping on his onions...Food was scarce.:)



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
144. hydrus
2:35 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Stomping onions? What weird, old-timey custom is this?

How are ya this fine evening?
Ovid and I always discussed the (weird) weather that occurs over the Mediterranean Sea. When I said he was wrong, he accused me of stomping on his onions...Food was scarce.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22643
143. sunlinepr
2:34 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Depending on weather conditions, satellites will be able to capture your city lights...

NASA photos: Cities at night
Link

Also depending on your weather and city lights, you will be able to enjoy the night sky...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
142. PSLFLCaneVet
2:30 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
This post is not about weather either. YOU just HAD to get your 2 cents in didnt ya?.?Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger - I swear I am just kidding Jeff..This is my attempt at humor this evening..Stomping onions so to speak..:)




Stomping onions? What weird, old-timey custom is this?

How are ya this fine evening?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
141. aspectre
2:25 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Despite NHC's latest TropicalWeatherOutlook "Environmental conditions have become less favorable
...and development of this disturbance...if any...should be slow to occur
", 94L has changed
from the 20knot 1009millibar Disturbance (20, 1009, DB) of the preceding 72hours
into a 20knot 1008millibar Low (20, 1008, LO) as of the latest ATCF report.

Which makes now a good time to post a map of 94L's positions over the last 78hours

which I obtained by copying&pasting 11.3n74.5w, 11.2n75.0w, 11.2n75.4w, 11.1n75.8w, 11.1n76.2w, 11.1n76.5w, 11.1n76.7w, 11.1n76.8w, 11.1n76.9w, 11.1n77.0w, 11.2n77.3w, 11.5n77.8w, 11.9n78.3w, 12.2n78.6w, gja, adz, pva, baq into the GreatCircleMapper
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
140. DontAnnoyMe
2:24 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting doabarrelroll:

not weather related...


Supercomputing for a Changing Planet: Simulation and Climate Change


Of course, there are many non weather-related uses as well.
"In fact, computer simulation is one of the few tools available to scientists and policy makers for understanding climate change. Numerical models allow us to validate our evolving understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, but the models are so complex that ordinary computers will not suffice. This is precisely the kind of challenge that supercomputers were designed to address, and supercomputing is a vital part of the climate science tool chest. "
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
139. KoritheMan
2:20 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting troy1993:
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?


Because the Bermuda High had a persistent weakness from 65-75W nearly all season (with the exception of perhaps late June throughout July). Each time it tried to push farther westward, persistent 500 mb troughing pushed it back to the east.

As to your question about neutral conditions being more favorable, that's really only for landfalls.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21304
138. sunlinepr
2:13 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:



I think it is.....
Computer Science and technology moves Weather Satellites and all our models...

Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting

Read more: Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting - Time, Equations, Calculations, Complete, Skill, and Percent

http://science.jrank.org/pages/7337/Weather-Forecasting-role-computers-in-weather-forecasting.html# ixzz15JSm7znE



This is just one article from many available... Even in Noaa you'll find them
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
137. hydrus
2:10 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Considering not much is happening in the weather department I would assume posting that is fine.
This post is not about weather either. YOU just HAD to get your 2 cents in didnt ya?.?Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger - I swear I am just kidding Jeff..This is my attempt at humor this evening..Stomping onions so to speak..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22643
136. sunlinepr
2:10 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting doabarrelroll:

not weather related...


I think it is.....
Computer Science and technology moves Weather Satellites and all our models...

Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting

Read more: Weather Forecasting - The Role Of Computers In Weather Forecasting - Time, Equations, Calculations, Complete, Skill, and Percent

http://science.jrank.org/pages/7337/Weather-Forecasting-role-computers-in-weather-forecasting.html# ixzz15JSm7znE
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
135. hydrus
2:05 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I personally think we'll get a minimal ts like Katrina 99, however I understand conditions aren't perfect and that this is a disorganized storm that may not organize before landfall, however I'm annoyed that the NHC outlook does not give any logical input to support their claim
Things are rather slow right now..They might start issuing advisories that are not quite as vague as some I noticed earlier in the season. I do believe they are doing more than what is required of them.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22643
131. all4hurricanes
1:50 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
This system will probably crank up and fall apart a few times before it becomes a T.D...Plenty of moisture around. We will see what happens with the next convective phase.

I personally think we'll get a minimal ts like Katrina 99, however I understand conditions aren't perfect and that this is a disorganized storm that may not organize before landfall, however I'm annoyed that the NHC outlook does not give any logical input to support their claim
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2377
130. hydrus
1:42 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?
This system will probably crank up and fall apart a few times before it becomes a T.D...Plenty of moisture around. We will see what happens with the next convective phase.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22643
129. sunlinepr
1:40 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
News in Yahoo Link
Chinese supercomputer named world's fastest

BEIJING (AFP) China overtook the United States at the head of the world of supercomputing on Sunday when a survey ranked one of its machines the fastest on the planet.

Tianhe-1, meaning Milky Way, achieved a computing speed of 2,570 trillion calculations per second, earning it the number one spot in the Top 500 (www.top500.org) survey of supercomputers.

The Jaguar computer at a US government facility in Tennessee, which had held the top spot, was ranked second with a speed of 1,750 trillion calculations per second.

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
128. sunlinepr
1:39 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
127. all4hurricanes
1:36 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Wait just a sec isn't there an anti-cyclone and warm waters as well as at least a moderately moist environment. Stewart never says what factor is limiting development and if this was a high school debate he would have lost. What are the "environmental conditions" that are "less favorable"?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2377
126. hydrus
1:34 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent synopsis, Teddy. It's been an incredible season--and it may very well not be over just yet...
There is enough moisture and warm water to keep things active for a while...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22643
125. sunlinepr
1:28 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting Skyepony:
Missed this when it came out..


Atmospheric River Slams Northern California
Released: 10/15/2009 4:59:26 PM


...... more here


Excellent info...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
124. sunlinepr
1:26 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
.....


Excellent summary... I just saved it for future reference to 2010 Season...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
123. SQUAWK
1:21 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Is anyone having a problem getting to the SPC and any other NOAA sites?
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
122. Chicklit
1:06 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
120. Neapolitan
1:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.

Excellent synopsis, Teddy. It's been an incredible season--and it may very well not be over just yet...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13801
119. Chicklit
1:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
118. Orcasystems
1:02 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
117. doorman79
12:54 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Quoting troy1993:
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?


Teddy, I'll take this one! lol

Luck!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
116. stormpetrol
12:53 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
I still say model guidance is good, but too many including the experts hang their hats just a lill too much on them
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
115. troy1993
12:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Cyberteddy..Can you explain why the United States didnt get hit by any hurricanes this hurricane season? Isnt a neutral ENSO more favorable than El Nino or La Nina and if it is why is it so?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
114. doorman79
12:51 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Evening All!

We got about a tenth of rain today, 80% tomorrow. We need it. Other than the fact that I have to work in it on a monday:(
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
113. Skyepony (Mod)
12:50 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Missed this when it came out..


Atmospheric River Slams Northern California
Released: 10/15/2009 4:59:26 PM


As people in northern California begin to assess damage from the high winds and heavy rain of October 13 and 14, they may wonder what hit them. The answer, according to Dave Reynolds, meteorologist-in-charge at NOAA's National Weather Service forecast office in Monterey, was an "atmospheric river," the meteorological phenomenon that draws water vapor from the Pacific Ocean near the equator and transports it to the U.S. West Coast with firehose-like ferocity.

Atmospheric Rivers, or “ARs,” are technically associated with cyclones,” says Dr. Marty Ralph, Research Meteorologist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder. "Although these cyclones are not of the iconic circular pattern commonly associated with hurricanes, they do include hurricane-strength winds and can yield rainfall comparable to that of hurricanes. The ARs in these cyclones are regions where low-altitude winds transport huge amounts of water vapor up against the mountains, which wrings out extreme rainfall." The AR this week produced a remarkable 21 inches of rain in just one day in the mountains near Big Sur, and winds that exceeded hurricane force.

While the atmospheric river that hit central California on October 13 and 14 was large, breaking some daily rainfall records and streamflow records for this time of year on several California creeks and rivers, including the Salinas River, the Russian River, and the Merced River, according to USGS Research Hydrologist, Dr. Michael Dettinger, in many cases, the results can be much larger, especially later in the winter. Nonetheless, this AR would have been notably long and strong any time of year.

For weather experts, storms this large always bring to mind the historically massive storms that impacted both northern and southern California in 1861 and 1862, flooding the Central Valley of California, obliterating at least one community in southern California, and causing the state capital to me moved from Sacramento to San Francisco. According to scientists, storms of this magnitude will eventually happen again. more here
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39397
112. stormpetrol
12:49 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
still never ceases to amaze me the cherry picking
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
111. stormpetrol
12:39 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Wow! 20% Yeppe!so much for my 50-60% , Good news!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
110. VAbeachhurricanes
12:32 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Dang... That TWO killed the blog
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
109. CybrTeddy
12:01 AM GMT on November 15, 2010
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
108. weatherlover94
11:53 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Maybe it's about finished in 2010.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


ohhhh well
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2231
107. IKE
11:50 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Maybe it's about finished in 2010.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
106. weatherlover94
11:43 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
there's another little thing going on @ south of Haiti???


i think that is some convection that has broken loose from 94L i dont think we have to worry about that
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2231
105. weatherlover94
11:39 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we might see 60% for 94L at 7pm.


very possible but my guess 40-50% some were in there
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2231
104. TORMENTOSO83
11:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
there's another little thing going on @ south of Haiti???
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
103. Tazmanian
11:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
the W coast will be seeing the 1st real snow of the seasone all so the snow levels in WA and OR will be down too about sea level
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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