Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Gnite All....

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iam gone be back in the am night people
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Good night people, I'm calling it a day. Buenas noches.


Gnite, Buena informacion...
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Another weather related subject is GPS... What about the EU gps satellites that are being placed in orbit?? More precise weather info??

Galileo is a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) currently being built by the European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA). The €3.4 billion project is an alternative and a complement to the U.S. NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) and the Russian GLONASS.

Galileo was intended to provide more precise measurements than available through GPS or GLONASS (Galileo will be accurate down to the metre range) including the height (altitude) above sea level, and better positioning services at high latitudes. The political aim is to provide an independent positioning system upon which European nations can rely even in times of war or political disagreement, since Russia or the USA could disable use of their national systems by others (through encryption).
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Good night people, I'm calling it a day. Buenas noches.
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197. beell
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Nice Article! Thanks for posting. It says that the weather in the Troposhere affects the Ionosphere, not the other way around. I wonder if the affect is due to cloud-to-ionosphere lightning?


I'm guessing if there is a relationship an attempt at weather modification could be made. A backwards approach. It's over my head fer sure...
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Nice Article! Thanks for posting. It says that the weather in the Troposhere affects the Ionosphere, not the other way around. I wonder if the affect is due to cloud-to-ionosphere lightning?
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here ya go fish some snow
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting beell:
Tropical thunderstorms affect space weather - By Robert Sanders, Media Relations/UC Berkely/September 2006


Good article.... interesting


Measurements made by NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite from March 20 to April 20, 2002, have confirmed that the dense zones exist in the plasma bands. Researchers now want to understand whether the effect changes with seasons or large events, like hurricanes.

The research was funded by NASA. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

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Seems like 94L, will be eventually heading WSW into CA...

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Or some PHD is b.s.ing DARPA to get funding to waste on a bad idea....(not that something like that would ever happen) :^)


In this world affected by economies, anything is possible...
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Quoting sunlinepr:
It would be logic to conclude that

If we are researching and develping it; They are also researching and developing it

Weather modification will become a part of domestic and international security and could be done unilaterally... It could have offensive and defensive applications and even be used for deterrence purposes. The ability to generate precipitation, fog, and storms on earth or to modify space weather, ... and the production of artificial weather all are a part of an integrated set of technologies which can provide substantial increase in US, or degraded capability in an adversary, to achieve global awareness, reach, and power.
Or some PHD is b.s.ing DARPA to get funding to waste on a bad idea....(not that something like that would ever happen) :^)
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"The operation seeded clouds with silver iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period an average of 30 to 45 days".

IMAGINE extending the Hurricane season 30 days???

Well, back to local weather.....
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It would be logic to conclude that

If we are researching and develping it; They are also researching and developing it

Weather modification will become a part of domestic and international security and could be done unilaterally... It could have offensive and defensive applications and even be used for deterrence purposes. The ability to generate precipitation, fog, and storms on earth or to modify space weather, ... and the production of artificial weather all are a part of an integrated set of technologies which can provide substantial increase in US, or degraded capability in an adversary, to achieve global awareness, reach, and power.
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Photobucket

Maybe for military purposes an amplification of the ionosphere might interfere with electronics and possibly even disable some thing like an ICBM but I am not familiar with a connection between the ionsphere and weather.
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What we do really know, is that the desire to perform weather manipulation by the US and Russia is real.. Silver Iodide seeding was documented; used in Vietnam.
Even Dr. J. Masters has mentioned it...


Operation Popeye (Project Popeye/Motorpool/Intermediary-Compatriot) was a US military cloud seeding operation (running from March 20, 1967 until July 5, 1972) during the Vietnam war to extend the monsoon season over Laos, specifically areas of the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The operation seeded clouds with silver iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period an average of 30 to 45 days. As the continuous rainfall slowed down the truck traffic, it was considered relatively successful.[1] The 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron carried out the operation to "make mud, not war." [2]

The resultant rain and subsequent flooding of the nearby Song Con River is sometimes blamed for the move of POWs from the prison camp at Son Tay and therefore, the failure of Operation Ivory Coast.[3]
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You gotta stop harpin on the ionosphere.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
The DARPA funded research mission makes sense but the heating 4 hundred square miles of atmosphere would take a tremendous amout of energy..........seems far-fetched.


What they say is that you don't have to send so much energy to the ionosphere; The energy is there.... HAARP only stimulates that energy by concentrating microwave beams into it, creating the High pressure.... Well, thats what I've read, I ain't an expert.... I just know the basic info....
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds


Here is a good link for you KOG, the comments section alone will keep you busy for days... and endless hours of absolute bewilderment.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Hey Dude! Cowboys looking good for the first time this season.


yeah no kidding! Lol

about time, that's all I have to say,

the power outage during the game was amusing
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So...I'm confused....how does the ionosphere affect the weather?
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone



how bout them Cowboys (:
Hey Dude! Cowboys looking good for the first time this season.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds
Hi Keep! My two cents...We know more about human genomics than we do about weather...we might want to hold off on the whole weather mod thing 'till down-stream consequences can be accurately forecast.
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This is a photo of the HAARP facilities in Alaska

If you want to get more info. look in the internet.... Project HAARP or Weather manipulation...
You will find links in all colors...

If you like to study this highly controversial subject; read, educate and get to your own conclusion.....

One link considers HAARP as a warfare machine being developed by all SuperPowers....

Environmental warfare is defined as the intentional modification or manipulation of the natural ecology, such as climate and weather, earth systems such as the ionosphere, magnetosphere, tectonic plate system, and/or the triggering of seismic events (earthquakes) to cause intentional physical, economic, and psycho-social, and physical destruction to an intended target geophysical or population location, as part of strategic or tactical war." (Eco News)

You will even find weird links that say that Katrina was a man made Hurricane deviated on purpose to the N Orleans area, to create the oil crisis....
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looks pretty unstable
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good evening everyone



how bout them Cowboys (:
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
we also have ultra zonic atomspheric wave generating systems as well as upper atomspheric super enhancing temp inversion flws and a spraying and seeding program for insurance companys to allow for seeding of storms before arriving over a high risk for claims areaas well weather modification its not as scary as it sounds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting sunlinepr:


There are a lot of links related to project HAARP.... some believe that it's used for Weather manipulation, because it can heat a 400x400 sq. mile area in the ionosphere and create a high pressure area that can deviate storms, cold fronts etc.
Also some Scandinavian countries are building a more potent antenna than the one in Alaska....

You will find many in pro and oppositors to this data.... on the Internet

Project HARP, The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).[1] Its purpose is to analyze the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance purposes (such as missile detection).[2] The HAARP program operates a major Arctic facility, known as the HAARP Research Station, on an Air Force owned site near Gakona, Alaska.
The DARPA funded research mission makes sense but the heating 4 hundred square miles of atmosphere would take a tremendous amout of energy..........seems far-fetched.
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program


There are a lot of links related to project HAARP.... some believe that it's used for Weather manipulation, because it can heat a 400x400 sq. mile area in the ionosphere and create a high pressure area that can deviate storms, cold fronts etc.
Also some Scandinavian countries are building a more potent antenna than the one in Alaska....

You will find many in pro and oppositors to this subject.... on the Internet

From Wikipedia:
Project HARP, The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) is an ionospheric research program jointly funded by the US Air Force, the US Navy, the University of Alaska and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).[1] Its purpose is to analyze the ionosphere and investigate the potential for developing ionospheric enhancement technology for radio communications and surveillance purposes (such as missile detection).[2] The HAARP program operates a major Arctic facility, known as the HAARP Research Station, on an Air Force owned site near Gakona, Alaska.
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Test
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
Hey! Where's PrivateIdaho? maybe he could answer this question....It's true that, at least in PR, people is talking about a weather controller antenna that are located in Canada, USA and one in Lajas, PR? I think they named it as H.A.A.R.P.
You rang? lol...Not familiar with HAARP. Out side my area of expertise.
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15 days to close the season....
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Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know a source for wave/surf forecast in Bonaire? Aruba seems to get even worse tomorrow, but Bonaire is a bit more protected. Things are really stirred up here.


Click on the buoys in the map for forecast... We use this link everytime we go surfing here in PR...


Link

You have a Rincon.... Our Rincon is the Surf. Capital of PR....
Check these photos.... from yesterday

Link
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166. Skyepony (Mod)
Sunlinepr~ Thanks & so was your supercomputer article..we wouldn't have all these models without them.

Troy~ La Niñas bring Highs that tend to set up farther west in the Atlantic. Storms tend to either recurve early or travel through the Caribbean. Also brings warmer winters for the SE reducing the chances of a late season storm being drawn up over FL. I had fully expected the Caribbean & possibly Bermuda to take the brunt this year.

ASCAT this morning on left, this evening on right..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, if 2010's over we cranked out 19-12-5. That's higher than CSU's predictions and on the high end of NOAA's August predictions. That's higher than my prediction of 17 in May - October. We saw 11 named storms make a landfall, even more directly effected land. We saw 2 simultaneousness Category 4 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes at once. We even saw 2 hurricanes at once in Late October, we witnessed a Category 2 in June, we saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the EATL.. a Category 4. We saw Paula become an invest to a Hurricane in 12 hours, we saw Karl bring devastation to Mexico and Tomas to the islands. IIRC Belize got hit 3 times by named storms. We saw the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the BOC, Karl.

True, the USA didn't get hit by a hurricane but that's pretty much overshadowed by everything else in my opinion.


And, what is even more bizarre, as I've mentioned before, it seems Canada, between Earl and Igor, suffered more damage than the CONUS this season. Which should give everyone pause.
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Quoting GrillinInTheEye:


Onions that would be my specialty. Evening all, I'm Grillin, Canevets wife. How would you like the onions. Chopped or diced.
Surprise us...:).............................. very benign looking invest...For now..
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Ah, an interesting analogy. I surmise that the onions were still in the ground. I would think it a difficult task otherwise. Slippery devils.
There is a certain skillset one can acquire to quickly and easily stomp them into oblivion. However, this is a weather related blog. Another blog that has mentoring on such a matter may exist in cyberspace and should be sought by one or all of the search engines available to you via your computer terminal....Looks rather tranquil out ther..
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Quoting beell:


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.


Cool. It sounds reasonable to me.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Watching "Storm Busting Myths" on Myth Busters.. what a hoot.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
160. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Like the avatar, Beell. lmao


LOL, It was my original avatar way back. It was not approved. Took a fit the other night and resubmitted. Admin granted my wish!
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Quoting beell:


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.
Like the avatar, Beell. lmao
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158. beell
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Um - is that your version of the oh-so-crucial missing reasoning, or what you think they should have said?


Um, just a thought or two. No big deal.
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Quoting beell:


How about a general lack of instability?

18-20° temp/dewpoint spreads around the Caribbean. And some warm mid-level temps.


Um - is that your version of the oh-so-crucial missing reasoning, or what you think they should have said?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Either will do. In My Onion, opinions are best served with a grain of salt.


I agree. Been lurking around for a while. I take everything with a grain of salt. Kosher or Sea salt. Which ever is at close at hand.
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155. beell
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


They have an out:

NHC Text Product Descriptions

"The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development out to 48 hours. It includes (when possible) a nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook.




How about a general lack of instability?

18-20° temp/dewpoint spreads around the Caribbean. And some warm mid-level temps.
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H.A.A.R.P. = High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program
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Hey! Where's PrivateIdaho? maybe he could answer this question....It's true that, at least in PR, people is talking about a weather controller antenna that are located in Canada, USA and one in Lajas, PR? I think they named it as H.A.A.R.P.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.