Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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256. IKE
4:13 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
255. largeeyes
4:10 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Wife isn't too pleased about lack of sunshine thus far...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
254. hydrus
3:23 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
late season tropical wave approaching the lesser antilles. classical inverted v shape wave ,with its axis at 47W south of 15N, moving west. fairly looking active wave this time of year
Quite a bit of moisture associated with it too....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
253. stoormfury
2:24 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
late season tropical wave approaching the lesser antilles. classical inverted v shape wave ,with its axis at 47W south of 15N, moving west. fairly looking active wave this time of year
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2573
252. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I watched it on tv too. Can't bother with the crowds anymore. NS and BT floats looked real good this year. Nice weather we are having lately. Had a nice rain up here this morning.
Good morning.... The NCEP spins up a storm in the Eastern Caribbean Sea..Link And the NAM is taking invest94L over the Cayman Islands in a couple of days..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20330
251. wunderkidcayman
2:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
I wonder how long that will last stormwatcherCI I got this feeling that 94L will be a Paloma type storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
250. barbamz
1:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2010

Credit: http://www.wetteronline.de/wotexte/redaktion/topthemen/2010/11/1114_rb.htm

"Carmen" brought high amounts of rain to some regions in Germany (pic shows the data of Saturday), and it's still raining today till tomorrow in the same regions. Winds had not been a real problem in Germany.
Greetings from Germany (in my town it has been a sunny Sunday so far), Barbara.



Link
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5536
249. stormwatcherCI
1:29 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
na stormwatcherCI I see it every year but I did see it on TV, boy I tell ya it was a little diffrent from the ones before. but anyway what about you
I watched it on tv too. Can't bother with the crowds anymore. NS and BT floats looked real good this year. Nice weather we are having lately. Had a nice rain up here this morning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
248. wunderkidcayman
1:15 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
and no I am not that happy
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
247. wunderkidcayman
1:00 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
na stormwatcherCI I see it every year but I did see it on TV, boy I tell ya it was a little diffrent from the ones before. but anyway what about you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
246. stormwatcherCI
12:45 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
gooooooooood morning everyone!
Good morning. Why are you so happy ? Did you go to the landing ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
245. wunderkidcayman
12:38 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
gooooooooood morning everyone!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
244. Autistic2
12:37 PM GMT on November 14, 2010



Quoting TomTaylor:
What ever happened to StormW?


http://stormw.wordpress.com/
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
243. stormwatcherCI
12:35 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning. Almost Thanksgiving and 94L hanging around down south...
Good morning. Looks stationary around 79W and 11.5N.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
242. aislinnpaps
12:33 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Good morning. Almost Thanksgiving and 94L hanging around down south...
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
241. GeoffreyWPB
12:05 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
240. largeeyes
12:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2010
Stuck under that blob of convection way to the east. Been rainin all morning here.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
239. GeoffreyWPB
11:46 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
700 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
238. 954FtLCane
7:31 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Ummm go Dolphins....!!! and thank god the season on our little half/quarter of the world is over!! By the way I had a cocktail.. not 2 ..tonight
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
237. Orcasystems
7:00 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
236. JLPR2
6:58 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Well time for bed, night all!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
235. DontAnnoyMe
6:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Last year users were having all kinds of problems. Admit tried all sorts of fixes. They apologized but could never say for sure if it was a hacker or virus or trojan or what. I know my firewall was going off a lot.


Yikes. I think if it were a hacker they'd know that for sure. Assuming they have appropriate security set, it sounds like a bug in the system to me.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
234. outlookchkr
6:29 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Again? It's happened before?
Hack for what reason?
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
232. DontAnnoyMe
6:21 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
2 days ago I got the banned for so many thousand hours. It came to over 500 days! All of the 2011 season and then some. It went away after I signed out. I think someone is hacking the site again.


Again? It's happened before?
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
231. outlookchkr
6:15 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
But I was off a bit, about the 200 miles at day 5 of an NHC track.
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
229. DontAnnoyMe
6:05 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Speaking of the filter, who decides what each poster is? How do I find out what I am. I hope I'm not annoying anyone. This is new to me.


I never use flags. You'll only know if your posts are bad; enough minuses and it's subject to being deleted by admin. I think. People use it as a weapon.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
228. sunlinepr
6:04 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't have any on Ignore...


Well tonight's bloggin has shown all kind of glitches.... Maybe tomorrow will be better.... GNite all and thanks
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
227. atmoaggie
6:04 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:


I don't have any on Ignore...
Then I lose...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
226. sunlinepr
6:02 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'll wager that one has the other ignored...resulting in skipped post number.


I don't have any on Ignore...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
225. sunlinepr
6:01 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.


I did so, and it's OK.... Though sometimes I get a Big letters view of the blog
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
223. atmoaggie
6:00 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.
I'll wager that one has the other ignored...resulting in skipped post number.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
222. DontAnnoyMe
5:58 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey, where's post 217??

I can't see any.... Something weird in here!!! Are we being Hacked???


It's there. Try logging out, clearing browser, log back in.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
221. JLPR2
5:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Well there goes my rebellious self. LOL!
Pacquiao won.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
220. DontAnnoyMe
5:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Change filter to desired setting. Then log off and then log on. If that fails reboot before logon.


He said he can't change the filter...
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
219. sunlinepr
5:56 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
218. DontAnnoyMe
5:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
My filter is stuck on just show average and Ive tried everything I know to fix it.


Same deal on a different browser? If so, it's not likely to be a problem on your end.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
216. sunlinepr
5:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
215. DontAnnoyMe
8:33 AM GMT on May 20, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


haha no offense intended btw!


None taken!
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
214. tornadodude
5:37 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tx, I didn't catch it. Y'all write too fast LOL


haha no offense intended btw!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
213. DontAnnoyMe
5:36 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.


Tx, I didn't catch it. Y'all write too fast LOL
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
212. tornadodude
5:35 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.


there you go atmo, just had to rat me out :P lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
211. atmoaggie
5:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not with the same handle that was supposedly just banned.
Of course not.....
He was making a captian obvious comment.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
210. sunlinepr
5:33 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.


Don't worry about any of those comments; it has been proved that the Blog has Bug problems and glitches while navigating.... Something that I've noticed is that everyday when my Spyware terminator checks my PC, I have tracking cookies in it.... maybe from the blog...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9690
209. DontAnnoyMe
5:32 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


really?


Not with the same handle that was supposedly just banned.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
208. tornadodude
5:31 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:


Of course not, it cant be that simple...

XD


haha for sure man!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
207. DontAnnoyMe
5:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.


Yeah, sorry - see #195. I had edited it after I saw your #187.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
206. scott39
5:29 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Ok, Hold on a minute I wasnt impersonating anyone. Some one had made a joke earlier about me being part of Admin, because when I joined and how many comments were missing. I pretty sure nobody really thought I was part of Admn. Ive been posting on here for 2 years.
I just saw your Edit

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.