Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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elongated cyclonic surface reflection from the SW-NE, slowly orgainizing..
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If you look on the infrared you can see DMIN approching lats see what our invest does after DMIN
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is the current blog update for doc almost 6 hrs ago just breaking 50


You going to watch the Westcoast Storm lay a beating on the Centre of the Universe tonight, like it did in Ottawa the other night.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
My mistake. Sorry.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Dr. Masters has posted another blog entry for today.
this is the current blog update for doc almost 6 hrs ago just breaking 50
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
weclome to the dead blog
The off season is coming soon so I would get use to it.And all the GW talk that comes with it.
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50
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Whoops!
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
weclome to the dead blog
I hope we will get to 50 post today
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welcome to the dead blog
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44. afj3

These models looked different this morning....
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I see 2 possible circulations one near 11.2N/78.5W, another 11.9N/76.1W , 11.2N/78.5W looks like the more dominant one to me though!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TropicalAnalystwx13,

I've answered your question on my blog.


Thanks
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TropicalAnalystwx13,

I've answered your question on my blog.
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Blog Update

Invest 94L slowly becoming better organized
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The heat continues: according to HAMweather, just four record low or low maximum temperatures have been recorded in the CONUS over the past 24 hours, compared to 123 record high or high minimum temps. However, most of those highs were in advance of the cold front making its way across the center part of the country, so it's highly doubtful the numbers will be so lopsided for the next several days.

Just as an indication of how bizarrely warm it's been thus far this fall, over the past three days that high record/low record ratio has been 362/43, and 671/354 over the past week. I don't have access at the moment to spans greater than a week, but it has definitely been far warmer than normal overall...
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I took these images using Grlevel2AE...

Snow on a Severe Weather Reflectivity Map:



Minnesota Snowstorm:



Heaviest Snow Southeast of Minneapolis, MN:

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Quoting stillwaiting:
kman:,i see any surface circulation up near 13n,75w...the area you mentioned appears to be in the mid levels,note the mid/upper level cloud pattern,theirs no way its orgainzed enough to have that flow from the mid/ul to the surface already....imo
Kman is gone but he said the cerculation was at 11 n
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kman:,i see any surface circulation up near 13n,75w...the area you mentioned appears to be in the mid levels,note the mid/upper level cloud pattern,theirs no way its orgainzed enough to have that flow from the mid/ul to the surface already....imo
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Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting kmanislander:


Run this loop in zoom mode with the lat / lon box checked and look at the rotation centered near 11 N and 78 W. Convection is spotty right now but some organization trying to take place for sure.
Its a pity ascat missed it
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Will be back later
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Quoting belizeit:
Wow see how the vortics has increased from 3 hrs ago


Run this loop in zoom mode with the lat / lon box checked and look at the rotation centered near 11 N and 78 W. Convection is spotty right now but some organization trying to take place for sure.
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Wow see how the vortics has increased from 3 hrs ago
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Quoting belizeit:
Hey Kman hows the Island


Very nice now. Pirate's week started last night with a big fireworks display and today is the float parade with lots of beer drinking etc LOL.

Beautiful breeze from the North East so have the house opened up. Can't get much better than it is today.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

It looks as if the 2010 season has one more system in store with the feature in the SW Caribbean. Recent loop imagery now shows a well defined area of cyclonic curvature in the cloud field suggesting that the low pressure is beginning to organize.

Motion seems to be WNW for now with the "center" near 78 W and 11.6 N

I tried the close up image on the Navy site and was greeted with a " forbidden to access this server " message. When did that happen ?. Very odd as the page still says " click product for full size image ".
Hey Kman hows the Island
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I just tried it and it worked.


Strange. Might be my firewall.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good afternoon. You have been missing lately. I wonder if we will see anything from this if it develops.


Hi,

I'vee been here but conditions were quiet after Tomas departed so took some time off the blog. Most of the models bring this up to a position just off the NE coast of Honduras near the border with Nicaragua. The NAM is a little farther East and North just below us but every model keeps it pretty weak around TD intensity.

For now it looks like a rain maker for us on the Northern edge of the circulation and the GFS loses it near Roatan.Hard to say what will happen beyond next Tuesday.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

It looks as if the 2010 season has one more system in store with the feature in the SW Caribbean. Recent loop imagery now shows a well defined area of cyclonic curvature in the cloud field suggesting that the low pressure is beginning to organize.

Motion seems to be WNW for now with the "center" near 78 W and 11.6 N

I tried the close up image on the Navy site and was greeted with a " forbidden to access this server " message. When did that happen ?. Very odd as the page still says " click product for full size image ".
I just tried it and it worked.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon everyone

It looks as if the 2010 season has one more system in store with the feature in the SW Caribbean. Recent loop imagery now shows a well defined area of cyclonic curvature in the cloud field suggesting that the low pressure is beginning to organize.

Motion seems to be WNW for now with the "center" near 78 W and 11.6 N

I tried the close up image on the Navy site and was greeted with a " forbidden to access this server " message. When did that happen ?. Very odd as the page still says " click product for full size image ".
Good afternoon. You have been missing lately. I wonder if we will see anything from this if it develops.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Good afternoon everyone

It looks as if the 2010 season has one more system in store with the feature in the SW Caribbean. Recent loop imagery now shows a well defined area of cyclonic curvature in the cloud field suggesting that the low pressure is beginning to organize.

Motion seems to be WNW for now with the "center" near 78 W and 11.6 N

I tried the close up image on the Navy site and was greeted with a " forbidden to access this server " message. When did that happen ?. Very odd as the page still says " click product for full size image ".
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That cold front opened officially the Surfing season in Rincon PR.... 3 Palmas has shown some 20footers...

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
I also want to note that back in may when we were in neutral mode the bermuda high was closer to the united states.And thats when everyone was screaming that the u.s would have a bad hurricane season.Later in the year A consistant high pressure system(also the cuase of record heat over much of the U.s).Back in 2007 when we were in a la nina year their was also that consistant area of high pressure over the u.S that shoved storms into mexico just like this year.And any storm that did form out in the atlantic( with the exception of Dean)went out over the atlantic just like this year.And remember the next year what happend when we went into neutral?.Their were multiple hits on the untited states.So could 2011 be the same.It would be interesting to see.But of course thats next year and various weather patterns could change.I just wanted to point that out.
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Big Snowstorm unfolding across the state of Minnesota.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 131738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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i wounder if that low out there has a ch of becomeing a STS
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cmc brings a 1010 mb low east of the southern windward islands next tuesday. there is an area of heavy convection 900 miles east of Trinidad with some cyclonic turning in the low cloud field. this could be the area the CMC is latching onto.
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XX/INV/94L
MARK
11.76N/76.48W
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Greaaaaaaat, now I have to take down my hurricane shutters, I mean that is good 94L aint comming to me, but that was a lot of work last night putting up those damn shutters. On top of it I am going to return my generator I got from depot.


It's best not to return your generator. What if there's one next year and you don't have it?
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery


These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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I knew with all the heat we had this summer that we wern't going to transition into fall that quickly.And usually after we have had a hot summer up here in D.C a warm winter follows.Prime exsample is 2007.We were in a la nina just like we are now.And we had a hot summer that year to.And the winter that follwed was a relitivly warm one with only few cold outbreaks.Could the same be said this time around?.Well I've also abserved that if a year started out cold then it will likly end cold.Exsample of this is 2009,2002,and 2005 up here.All these years started out cold an ended cold.But could the same be said for 2010?.it stated out cold.But will it end cold?.I'm losing my doubts but i think it might be a chance.Now this brings me to next years hurricane season.Some modles say we'll be in a La nina into the beginning of the hurricane season then going into neutral.This could only spell disaster for the U.S.After having 2 years of luck I think luck is running out for us.While we've had a break other areas have had a beating.Even in 2009.Weak La nina's and neutral years have proven to be deadly for the u.s.So with that said I think the 2011 season will feature more landfalls in the U.S than what we've seen in the past two years.
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Greaaaaaaat, now I have to take down my hurricane shutters, I mean that is good 94L aint comming to me, but that was a lot of work last night putting up those damn shutters. On top of it I am going to return my generator I got from depot.
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Quoting belizeit:
I have seen the low there for the last couple of days i wonder if it wont be able to pull or invest a little to the north


Probably a bit too large and non-tropical to be invest'd.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The Bermuda High has been replaced by a Bermuda Low due to the expanding nor'easter that absorbed Tomas and sent its remnants toward Newfoundland and Nova Scotia before the low continued to retrograde and sank south over Bermuda.
I have seen the low there for the last couple of days i wonder if it wont be able to pull or invest a little to the north
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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