Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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(back to the Hockey game)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Looks like some people finally got a life!

Complete Update






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, all. First chance to see what's shakin' for the day... hectic is as hectic does.... lol

And speaking of hectic... not.... I see a few pple are checking on 94L. Not much happening just yet, but it should be interesting to see hwat it looks like 12 hrs from now. I'm not so convinced yet that we'll see a named storm, but I'm willing to wait and see. Also I thought this system popped as a result of the remnants of that Twave that was approaching 60W at the beginning of the week... did that fizzle?

So we r coming up to the off season. To me the best part of that is watching SInd and Oz storms....




j/k
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Are you enjoying yourself ?

Now that I have a few Brights in ole blood stream, I'm doing better. Not nearly enough sleep last night. Ask me again tomorrow :)
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Quoting jurakantaino:
the huge low gale center at 30n can turn tropical?
I don't think so but looking at that you would assume that.
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Quoting largeeyes:
Hello from Bonaire :)
Are you enjoying yourself ?
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Quoting outlookchkr:
Everyone's at Pirates Week in the Cayman's, LOL. I certainly see the convection starting to increase in 94L. Also, the system has seeded the area with plenty of moisture and the dry area to the N and NW is going to be less of an inhibiting factor in developement over the next 24 - 36 hrs. I would bet on a TD to TS by 8pm tomorrow. JM(humble)O
It is wall to wall people here now.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
the huge low gale center at 30n can turn tropical?
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Hello from Bonaire :)
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Hey, all. First chance to see what's shakin' for the day... hectic is as hectic does.... lol

And speaking of hectic... not.... I see a few pple are checking on 94L. Not much happening just yet, but it should be interesting to see hwat it looks like 12 hrs from now. I'm not so convinced yet that we'll see a named storm, but I'm willing to wait and see. Also I thought this system popped as a result of the remnants of that Twave that was approaching 60W at the beginning of the week... did that fizzle?

So we r coming up to the off season. To me the best part of that is watching SInd and Oz storms....
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I think 94L came from a long lived cluster of thunderstorms over northern Colombia, but not sure.
Monsoon low...but going wrong way for this time of year?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Btw, noticed the blog is slow tonight? What happened? Is the colder weather making everyone sleepy?
Everyone's at Pirates Week in the Cayman's, LOL. I certainly see the convection starting to increase in 94L. Also, the system has seeded the area with plenty of moisture and the dry area to the N and NW is going to be less of an inhibiting factor in developement over the next 24 - 36 hrs. I would bet on a TD to TS by 8pm tomorrow. JM(humble)O
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT ...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
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Btw, noticed the blog is slow tonight? What happened? Is the colder weather making everyone sleepy?
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Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I think 94L came from a long lived cluster of thunderstorms over northern Colombia, but not sure.


When 94L was introduced on November 12, its cloud cluster popped up from essentially zero.

The only forces to make the cloud cluster was a new upper anticyclone over the area (upper divergence), and perhaps the good ol' pesky Colombian monsoonal low of the ITCZ (surface convergence). The upper anticyclone may have excited the area, and now we have 94L.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Midwest Snowstorm:

Minneapolis, MN:



Duluth, MN:



La Crosse, WI:



Well, its November after all...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data
/current/mainrfpa.png">


I wonder, who makes those TC formation graphs? LOL, it has the big extratrpoical cyclone in the W Atlantic more likely to develop than 94L. What?!
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Early Evening,

Been a while since I posted here. Scratching my head a little as to where Invest 94L popped up from? I don't think there was a tropical wave responsible.

I do see that a nice upper anticyclone is over the disturbance. Perhaps the formation of this anticyclone over the ITCZ has triggered 94L (surface convergence from ITCZ + upper divergence from anticyclone)
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51 washingtonian115 "The off season is coming...And all the GW talk that comes with it.
67 JFLORIDA "Actually most of that would be current climate science. This is the best time of year for catching up on technical understanding of atmospheric science...
...I rather enjoy it much more than "season".
"

bah You're just saying that cuz 2011 is a bust. Here it is November and no Arlene in sight...
...not even as a glimmer in the forecast models.
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
Greaaaaaaat, now I have to take down my hurricane shutters, I mean that is good 94L aint comming to me, but that was a lot of work last night putting up those damn shutters. On top of it I am going to return my generator I got from depot.

I think it's great that you monitor things and are prepared. Just think what a dope you'd feel like if you didn't take precautions and a storm came thru your area. Please don't return your generator (you'll probably need it next year), and keep up the good work!
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Bueller....Bueller.....Bueller..

Anyone.....Anyone......Anyone...
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Looks like dmin is past and thunderstorms are starting to pop again
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You have mail.


Oh ok thanks. I was just wondering because I joined here in late August and then left and then came back again in November, but I noticed he was gone, which surprised me because I remember him being a pretty influential poster
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Quoting TomTaylor:


Could you tell me why? I know it's pretty off topic, but the blog is pretty much dead right now anyway.
You have mail.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Banned.

Now back to another topic.


Could you tell me why? I know it's pretty off topic, but the blog is pretty much dead right now anyway.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...anybody here?


lol...10 minute pause in activity.
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The Midwest Snowstorm:

Minneapolis, MN:



Duluth, MN:



La Crosse, WI:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...anybody here?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Drak!

I believe 94L should go up to 50% at 8PM:


So do I.
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Yeah, just what does GeorgeDubya hafta do with sea ice melt anyways?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
What ever happened to StormW?


Banned.

Now back to another topic.
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What ever happened to StormW?
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Thanks Drak!

I believe 94L should go up to 50% at 8PM:

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Does it ever occur to science writers to check their arithmetic, rather than blindly transcribe from (partial) notes of their interviews?

~1,400 cubic kilometres divided by ~947,000 square kilometres equals an ice thickness of ~1.48metres.

Linked to in the same article (presumably by the author), "Seasonal sea ice usually reaches about 2 meters (6 feet) in thickness, while multi-year ice averages 3 meters (9 feet)."
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey Drak,

Think we'll see anything come of 94L? Tropical Depression #22? Virginie?


Probably. Several of the computer models forecast for development of this system and conditions look permitting for tropical cyclone development. Needs to move away a bit more from South America and congeal its convection.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Hey Drak,

Think we'll see anything come of 94L? Tropical Depression #22? Virginie?
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45 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "Welcome to the dead blog"
47 belizeit "I hope we will get to 50 post today"
50 Tazmanian "50"

Rabble-rouser.

51 washingtonian115 "The off season is coming soon so I would get use to it. And all the GW talk that comes with it."

Speaking of GW
A NASA analysis of satellite data has quantified, for the first time, the amount of older and thicker multiyear sea ice lost from the Arctic Ocean due to melting...
...Some scientists suspected that this loss was due entirely to wind pushing the ice out of the Arctic Basin -- a process that scientists refer to as export...

...Kwok and Cunningham show that between 1993 and 2009, a significant amount of multiyear ice -- 1,400 cubic kilometers (336 cubic miles) -- was lost due to melt, not export...
...They found that over the 17-year period, an area of 947,000 square kilometers (365,639 square miles), or about 32 percent of the decline in multiyear sea ice area, was lost in the Beaufort Sea due to melt.

How and where multiyear ice is lost has impacts on the Arctic system. For example, more loss by melt means more freshwater remains in local Arctic waters rather than being transported southward...
...The additional freshwater from melt in the Pacific sector, which encompasses the area of study, could contribute to the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and potentially influence circulation...

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elongated cyclonic surface reflection from the SW-NE, slowly orgainizing..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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