Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2010

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Sunday by noon EST.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Scott has been a member since the beginning of time. Thus, the format statement for the "Member Since" cannot handle his join date...
:P


Well, thanks for that; New for me....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting sunlinepr:


We'll I'm asking you with respect, -Scott; why, when you post, there is no Member since, # posts, or comments????.... maybe there is a bug with your pc, or the way your OS or IP address interacts with the blog....
Anyhow, someone with authority in Dr. JMasters blog, can fix that bug....
Scott has been a member since the beginning of time. Thus, the format statement for the "Member Since" cannot handle his join date...
:P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also I predict - Pacquiao in 5
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
Quoting scott39:
Im watching--Be back later.


We'll I'm asking you with respect, -Scott; why, when you post, there is no Member since, # posts, or comments????.... maybe there is a bug with your pc, or the way your OS or IP address interacts with the blog....
Anyhow, someone with authority in Dr. JMasters blog, can fix that bug....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


System happens, ya know.


LOL. Code is good!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
151. DontAnnoyMe
4:17 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Thanks. Dang, all I did was say hello to you. I'm shaking my head, while laughing.


System happens, ya know.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
150. outlookchkr
4:16 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The diurnal minimum has really impacted 94L in a negative way. The fact that that much convection has waned and dissipated due to a diurnal cycle shows that the system still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. Development into a tropical cyclone will be slow to occur.
I still disagree. This will end and the morning will show a different story. I say wait till the sun comes up and lets see what happens. I think it bumps up between 7am and 9am.
Member Since: October 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
149. PSLFLCaneVet
4:04 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting geepy86:
yuck, try bleach


I'm guessing that is a response to the JFV character.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
148. geepy86
4:01 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
yuck, try bleach
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
147. PSLFLCaneVet
4:01 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Appears the lack of response speaks for itself. JFV (banned, supposed troll) hasn't been around here in a long while, AFAIK.


Thanks. Dang, all I did was say hello to you. I'm shaking my head, while laughing.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
145. geepy86
3:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Unless you have fish on your shower curtain, it's safe to say your not JFV
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
144. geepy86
3:52 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Oh no not the list.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
142. DontAnnoyMe
3:50 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No sweat. I refer the matter to to KEEPEROFTHEGATE. I stand by whatever his judgment may be.


Appears the lack of response speaks for itself. JFV (banned, supposed troll) hasn't been around here in a long while, AFAIK.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
141. PSLFLCaneVet
3:46 AM GMT on November 14, 2010


No sweat. I refer the matter to to KEEPEROFTHEGATE. I stand by whatever his judgment may be.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
140. PSLFLCaneVet
3:21 AM GMT on November 14, 2010

Can someone favor me with the JFV story? I am at a disadvantage.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
139. PSLFLCaneVet
3:14 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually Taz, I have no idea..
Anyone who acts like a troll gets put on ignore... anyone who doesn't act like one, doesn't.

So if he is or isn't is irrelevant to me.. if he acts like one.. I will add him.. if not and he is JFV, I don't really care.



I can assure you that I am not the one you refer to. I chuckle a bit at the association.

Taz, I have it on excellent authority that you are a good and true soul. Would you care to share with me, the reason you associate me with this person?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
138. Orcasystems
3:09 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
am a good little boy you nevere see me in the paper if you evere see me in the paper i may be wareing a dress


Oh Taz, that is just so wrong in so many ways....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
137. Tazmanian
2:59 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
am a good little boy you nevere see me in the paper if you evere see me in the paper i may be wareing a dress
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
136. Tazmanian
2:58 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually Taz, I have no idea..
Anyone who acts like a troll gets put on ignore... anyone who doesn't act like one, doesn't.

So if he is or isn't is irrelevant to me.. if he acts like one.. I will add him.. if not and he is JFV, I don't really care.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
135. Orcasystems
2:57 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:





is that a yes or a not on that post


Actually Taz, I have no idea..
Anyone who acts like a troll gets put on ignore... anyone who doesn't act like one, doesn't.

So if he is or isn't is irrelevant to me.. if he acts like one.. I will add him.. if not and he is JFV, I don't really care.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
134. Tazmanian
2:54 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:







is that a yes or a not on that post
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
133. Orcasystems
2:53 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:




are you JFV???








I just found this...I has to use it ;)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
132. geepy86
2:48 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:




are you JFV???





LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1704
131. Tazmanian
2:43 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Hey, my friend. How goes it?




are you JFV???




Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
130. PSLFLCaneVet
2:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


+1 Hi Vet.


Hey, my friend. How goes it?
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
129. scott39
2:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Ive always liked your blog Orca.
128. Orcasystems
2:26 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Blog Updated
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
127. DontAnnoyMe
2:24 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



That's funny right there... Nice, Orca!


+1 Hi Vet.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
126. PSLFLCaneVet
2:22 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:




j/k



That's funny right there... Nice, Orca!
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
125. DontAnnoyMe
2:20 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting mossyhead:
You must not be logged in. When you log in, then all the others date joined will disappear.


Can't post if not logged in! But I have had them all disappear too, at times.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
124. washingtonian115
2:18 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:
Man thats one large storm.I imagine the swells on Bermuda are huge!!.Perfect for surfers but not many people.And the rip currents will also be dangerous.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
123. DontAnnoyMe
2:18 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Im watching--Be back later.


Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
122. mossyhead
2:16 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.
You must not be logged in. When you log in, then all the others date joined will disappear.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
121. Tazmanian
2:15 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Makes you wonder---doesnt it?



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
120. scott39
2:11 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Im watching--Be back later.
119. scott39
2:09 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.
Makes you wonder---doesnt it?
118. scott39
2:07 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
94L is on life support.
117. Tazmanian
1:46 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
that low out there dos it have a ch of beocmeing a STS ???????
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
116. sunlinepr
1:45 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
115. MiamiHurricanes09
1:31 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
The diurnal minimum has really impacted 94L in a negative way. The fact that that much convection has waned and dissipated due to a diurnal cycle shows that the system still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. Development into a tropical cyclone will be slow to occur.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
114. CybrTeddy
1:30 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
There's been a lot of convection over northern Colombia for quite some time. You can pick and choose times when there was much less convection, but heavy diurnal convection has been present for a while.

If a TD forms from this, you could say that convection in 94L is almost non-existent now.


I believe that 94L will become Virginie on Tuesday. Just like 2005, Invests during this hurricane season rarely fizzle. Matter of fact, Taz got his full house this year! From Igor to Richard every invest developed into a Tropical Storm.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
113. sunlinepr
1:19 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
112. sunlinepr
1:18 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.


You're a good observer....Maybe he's the Administrator.... or works for the blog?? Or there's a bug in the way the blog behaves with his PC???
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
111. washingtonian115
1:15 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.
Maybe he's a special blogger,or an undercover admin.Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17806
110. DontAnnoyMe
1:13 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.


Sometimes not. He's broken ;-)

1685. scott39 2:07 AM EDT on June 20, 2010
.
.
Member Since: June 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3751

262. scott39 3:18 PM EDT on September 18, 2010
.
.
Member Since: June 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3751



Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
109. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:11 AM GMT on November 14, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
How come everyone has a date joined and number of comments posted in their comments except scott39? He's a blank.


idk
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32811
108. Chicklit
1:01 AM GMT on November 14, 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 73W-82W. THE LOW LIES UNDERNEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N35W 6N45W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 12N43W TO 3N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 37W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 29N92W 23N98W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-73W TO INCLUDE NW VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 13N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 997 MB GALE LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N63W. REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W MOVING W. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N43W 28N50W 21N58W. EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
106. Orcasystems
12:51 AM GMT on November 14, 2010


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(back to the Hockey game)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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